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8/12 Games


BamaDoc

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3 hours ago, bighurt4life said:

 Really?  That seems like pretty black and white thinking.

 A .670 vs a .705 ops. Is more or less the same guy to me

The difference is OBP. I like OPS but it overweights SLG% and underweights OBP. So the difference between a .310 and .345 OBP is what does it for me. 

Edited by Jose Abreu
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3 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

 Also that ISO projection is ridiculously low. He'll be closer to .150 (league average) than .060.

What makes you say that? If anything, he seems like a guy whose ISO will be way below the league average to me. Lots of singles with some doubles, few triples, next to no homers

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6 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

What makes you say that? If anything, he seems like a guy whose ISO will be way below the league average to me. Lots of singles with some doubles, few triples, next to no homers

Considering there hasn’t been a qualifying player with ISO lower than .060 since 2013 I am pretty sure your projection is off.

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7 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

What makes you say that? If anything, he seems like a guy whose ISO will be way below the league average to me. Lots of singles with some doubles, few triples, next to no homers

 

1 hour ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Considering there hasn’t been a qualifying player with ISO lower than .060 since 2013 I am pretty sure your projection is off.

Well, there's that. There's Madrigal's plus hit and speed tools, which will likely net him extra bases on hits in addition to extra hits. There's the juiced ball, which tends to affect players with average to below average power the most. There's the several players in MLB showing that height isn't a limiting factor to power, guys like Jose Altuve, Jose Ramirez, and Mookie Betts. There's also the reality that pitchers would feel no need to try to do anything but challenge Madrigal if he rarely does more damage than a single, which would make it difficult for him to be a productive MLB hitter. If Madrigal does become a productive MLB hitter, it will likely be with a .120-.175 ISO.

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I'm not as high on Madrigal as some others are just because I haven't yet seen that he has a lot of physical talent. There is some mystery about whether he can play SS, and for some reason the Sox aren't trying it yet, but for now I see a 2B who gets very good reviews with the glove. I worry about what will happen when the better-than-eyeballs analytics get their hands on his defense. Maybe he'll be a great defensive 2B, it'll be important for his value that he is.

He clearly isn't super strong, but it's hard to tell where he is on that spectrum. He can make contact with the best of them, but that isn't everything. I worry that you could end up with a guy who bats .300 but with such little power that he's still not actually very valuable.

Overall, I see his floor as Chris Getz and I'm not sure who his ceiling is but it doesn't strike me as super high. I wasn't against the Sox drafting him because he's relatively low risk. But I'll also say that I was more enthusiastic about Trea Turner as a draft prospect, who ultimately went later in the round than Madrigal did.

Of course, I hope I'm wrong!

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19 hours ago, Lillian said:

Jose Rondon hit his 20TH homer of the season. if you count the 3 he hit for the Sox.

That's pretty impressive.  Especially in only about 300 at bats. 

He'll be back in Chicago in a few weeks. 

Edited by ChiSox59
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2 hours ago, Markbilliards said:

I usually think of Madrigal's ceiling to be like the peak years of Brian Roberts, but with half the SBs.  Maybe a little better hitter.

I like that comp. If he turned into prime Brian Roberts during the WS contention window, I'd be elated. That's a solid 3-5 WAR/year player.

Edited by JUSTgottaBELIEVE
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