2019 White Sox Starting Rotation

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Rodon/Kopech/Gio Gonzalez/Lopez/Giolito

I expect Dunning, Cease, and Stephens to be up at some point too.

Gio Gonzalez?  That is a gutsy prediction.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, GGajewski18 said:

Rodon/Kopech/Gio Gonzalez/Lopez/Giolito

I expect Dunning, Cease, and Stephens to be up at some point too.

This is an honest question for everyone not a critique about your individual post.

If tge Sox are keeping Kopech and Jimenez down to save service time, why would they treat Cease any different?

Also Dunning will need more time to develop after surgery. It's doubtful he will be in the MLB next year.

[flavum]

They’ll probably sign a free agent they can move to the pen after a couple weeks, but hopefully in the middle of April it’s Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, Kopech, and Stephens. 

[flavum]

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This is an honest question for everyone not a critique about your individual post.

If tge Sox are keeping Kopech and Jimenez down to save service time, why would they treat Cease any different?

Also Dunning will need more time to develop after surgery. It's doubtful he will be in the MLB next year.

If they think they can compete in 2020, bringing up a prospect during 2019 is different than what’s going on now.

[Dick Allen]

13 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This is an honest question for everyone not a critique about your individual post.

If tge Sox are keeping Kopech and Jimenez down to save service time, why would they treat Cease any different?

Also Dunning will need more time to develop after surgery. It's doubtful he will be in the MLB next year.

If they are trying to win, it makes a lot of sense to have your best players on the roster. That's not the case right now. 

[turnin' two]

10 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This is an honest question for everyone not a critique about your individual post.

If tge Sox are keeping Kopech and Jimenez down to save service time, why would they treat Cease any different?

Also Dunning will need more time to develop after surgery. It's doubtful he will be in the MLB next year.

Did Dunning have surgery?  It was my understanding that he did not and that rest was his prescription at the current point.  Maybe he will at some point, is that what you are predicting?

 

As for Cease, I was, I believe the first one to mention him for next year.  I think the service time will be handled differently because the team will be in a different place.  At some point the team will have to get their pieces lined up and can't just keep guys down for control.  While this is sub-optimal when they all become free agents at similar times, if they want to really contend in 2020, having their guys get some MLB innings under their belts will be important.

[ptatc]

4 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Did Dunning have surgery?  It was my understanding that he did not and that rest was his prescription at the current point.  Maybe he will at some point, is that what you are predicting?

 

As for Cease, I was, I believe the first one to mention him for next year.  I think the service time will be handled differently because the team will be in a different place.  At some point the team will have to get their pieces lined up and can't just keep guys down for control.  While this is sub-optimal when they all become free agents at similar times, if they want to really contend in 2020, having their guys get some MLB innings under their belts will be important.

Sorry. You're right. I had it in my mind that he had surgery. He didn't. 

[ptatc]

9 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

If they are trying to win, it makes a lot of sense to have your best players on the roster. That's not the case right now. 

That's true. But are they really trying to win next year? I think 2020 is more realistic. The only new players next year from the rebuild early in the season will be Kopech and jimenez. They alone will not put this team into contention.

[Kyyle23]

49 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Rodon/Kopech/Gio Gonzalez/Lopez/Giolito

I expect Dunning, Cease, and Stephens to be up at some point too.

KW read this and proactively traded Gio before he signed with the White Sox. 

[ChiSox59]

46 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This is an honest question for everyone not a critique about your individual post.

If tge Sox are keeping Kopech and Jimenez down to save service time, why would they treat Cease any different?

Also Dunning will need more time to develop after surgery. It's doubtful he will be in the MLB next year.

I highly doubt we'll see Cease next season, but if the Sox find themselves in contention (or at least around .500 mid summer), in need of a 5th starter and Cease is mowing down AAA, I don' think the Sox will show any hesitation to bring him up.

They didn't call up Eloy and Kopech this year for a few reasons.  1) Kopech wasn't very good early on and Eloy was hurt.  Both needed reps in the minors through at least July.  2) By the time they actually proved to be ML ready, it was mid July (at least in Eloy's case, Kopech more recently IMO) and the team was well on its way to a top 3 pick.  Blowing a year of service at that point (for only 6-8 weeks on play) is different.  I have zero doubts in my mind Kopech and Eloy are in the bigs right now if the Sox were actually trying to win major league baseball games. 

[Dick Allen]

25 minutes ago, ptatc said:

That's true. But are they really trying to win next year? I think 2020 is more realistic. The only new players next year from the rebuild early in the season will be Kopech and jimenez. They alone will not put this team into contention.

We will see. If they are in contention and Cease is dealing, and they need a starter, I would imagine he gets the call. If they are 40-75, that's a bit different. I agree with Keith Law, the extra year is not that big of deal for pitchers, although it does get to the point where it doesn't make sense to call them up. I really don't know of what big benefit they gain playing meaningless September games against a bunch of call ups anyway. 

[SonofaRoache]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Gio Gonzalez?  That is a gutsy prediction.

We need to bring in a vet who can give us number three production for a few years until we can figure out who the busts are.

 

Hopefully our rotation ends up being

1. Rodon

2. Kopech

3. FA number 3 starter then Cease

4. Lopez

5. Giolito or any guy who proves worthy

 

Right now things look scary but I think we will be okay. If Kopech or Lopez bust we have options and money to buy a starter, and the assets to trade for one.

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

We need to bring in a vet who can give us number three production for a few years until we can figure out who the busts are.

 

Hopefully our rotation ends up being

1. Rodon

2. Kopech

3. FA number 3 starter then Cease

4. Lopez

5. Giolito or any guy who proves worthy

 

Right now things look scary but I think we will be okay. If Kopech or Lopez bust we have options and money to buy a starter, and the assets to trade for one.

Disagree.  4/5s of the future rotation is already full with Rodon, Kopech, Lopez and Giolito.  I'd hate to fill the final spot and effectively block Stephens from getting his shot next season and later on Cease, Dunning, Adams, etc. 

Trade Rodon (or plan to trade him over the next 18 months) and the calculus changes a bit.  

[Dam8610]

2 hours ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

The Sox should pony up and sign Patrick Corbin to a 4 or 5 year deal. Dude is still under 30 and putting up ridiculous numbers pitching out in the desert.

Trying to fill the rotation with arms solely from the farm isn't a good idea.

I suggested Corbin in another thread. Now I'm reconsidering.

[SonofaRoache]

31 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Disagree.  4/5s of the future rotation is already full with Rodon, Kopech, Lopez and Giolito.  I'd hate to fill the final spot and effectively block Stephens from getting his shot next season and later on Cease, Dunning, Adams, etc. 

Trade Rodon (or plan to trade him over the next 18 months) and the calculus changes a bit.  

You aren't blocking anyone really because the back end guys will need a few more years anyway. Some of them will bust. If for some reason we have a surplus of good pitching that is a good thing. If push comes to shove we could trade one or two to get a position player of need. Competition isn't a bad thing as well, if our guys all perform we are gonna have this issue anyway.

[ChiSox59]

9 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

You aren't blocking anyone really because the back end guys will need a few more years anyway. Some of them will bust. If for some reason we have a surplus of good pitching that is a good thing. If push comes to shove we could trade one or two to get a position player of need. Competition isn't a bad thing as well, if our guys all perform we are gonna have this issue anyway.

4/5 of the rotation is filled with dudes already in the bigs + Kopech.  Some guys will bust, and maybe one of Gio or Lopez ends up in the pen.  But you still have Cease, Dunning, Adams, Hansen, Stephens, Flores, Lambert, Mederos, and Covey that are all in AA or higher.  There may be a need to add a FA SP to the core in the coming years.  That time is not this offseason.  

[BlackSox13]

Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, J.Stephens, J.Guerrero to start the 2019 season. Mid April it changes to Rodon, Lopez, Kopech, Giolito and one of Stephens/Guerrero. 

[SonofaRoache]

18 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

4/5 of the rotation is filled with dudes already in the bigs + Kopech.  Some guys will bust, and maybe one of Gio or Lopez ends up in the pen.  But you still have Cease, Dunning, Adams, Hansen, Stephens, Flores, Lambert, Mederos, and Covey that are all in AA or higher.  There may be a need to add a FA SP to the core in the coming years.  That time is not this offseason.  

Your point is valid, but it's risky to go into a season without a vet reliable starter. The rest of this will sort itself out as most of the guys you listed will be busts, traded, or end up in the pen. Having too much quality pitching is a good thing. How often do teams have a full rotation of just farm guys while trying to compete?

[ChiSox59]

18 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Your point is valid, but it's risky to go into a season without a vet reliable starter. The rest of this will sort itself out as most of the guys you listed will be busts, traded, or end up in the pen. Having too much quality pitching is a good thing. How often do teams have a full rotation of just farm guys while trying to compete?

It just seems premature at this point IMO.  I could see a veteran FA signing on a 1 year deal with in the Miguel Gonzalez mold (hope they'd try to do a tad better), but I don't think we'll see any SP signed long term.  But I suppose we'll see. 

[he gone.]

Locks:

Lopez, Giolito, Kopech (after Mid-April if he doesn't come up this year), Rodon

Out of all of these obviously Giolito is the least likely, but still think he's a lock based on that he's worked his way courageously through this year. If he continues it for the remainder of the year then he's a for sure lock. Either way, I think he starts in the rotation.

 

Last spot:

I can see them going after a Shields if the market is weak how it was for MiGo. I do not think that situation presents itself however. I can see them signing a guy like Garret Richards how the Cubs signed Smyly or the Rays with Ramos -- kind of thinking two years from now. Yes we have a ton of pitching coming down the pipeline, but maybe not a bad idea to throw like 2 years at $10-12mm at him. When healthy (rare) he can make a nice addition. Could be a good signing for 2020.

 

The last spot to me goes to some experienced guy. I think a lot will depend on how FA plays out. The very off chance we sign a Machado and maybe that guy is a real name and someone we trade for. But likely think we pick up a Latos, a Migo, a Shields, a Holland type of guy like we've done in the past. Just someone to fill innings, understands his role, knows he's likely to get flipped if he's pitching well. Names I'm thinking --- Adam Wainwright, Shields, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harvey, Franky Liriano, Edwin Jackson, Bucholz.

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

One thing I will say with near certainty.  The White Sox will not add a new rookie player to the 40 man roster to serve as a place holder for two-three weeks so they can instantly replace them with Michael Kopech.  Maybe it is a Tyler Danish who starts for two weeks and moves to the pen, or Dylan Covey, but it won't be someone like Adams or Stephans.  If they break on the roster as a starter, it is because they want them there for the season, not as a placeholder.

[Chicago White Sox]

49 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

One thing I will say with near certainty.  The White Sox will not add a new rookie player to the 40 man roster to serve as a place holder for two-three weeks so they can instantly replace them with Michael Kopech.  Maybe it is a Tyler Danish who starts for two weeks and moves to the pen, or Dylan Covey, but it won't be someone like Adams or Stephans.  If they break on the roster as a starter, it is because they want them there for the season, not as a placeholder.

Are you talking about next year?  Because if so, Stephens & Adams both need to be added to the 40 man roster this offseason for Rule 5 protection.  They will definitely be available for the opening day 25 without adding to the overall roster crunch (which still won’t be a huge issue this offseason).

The real issue is what kind of message does it send to promote Stephens or Adams over Kopech.  It’s one thing to hold down Michael and say “rotation is full”, it’s another thing to promote lessor prospects who have accomplished far less in AAA.  For that reason alone, Covey might be able to hold onto a rotation spot heading next year.  And I wouldn’t be surprised to see us a sign cheap veteran (ala MiGo) to serve a temporary placeholder.

[caulfield12]

20 hours ago, Flash said:

This rebuild will look much different if Gio can find the 4mph he's lost.

He never threw 98 consistently after the surgery.  He might have hit 98-100 at Harvard Westlake and in the Futures Game appearance 3 years ago, but he has never sustained that 96-98 stuff over an extended period of time in pro ball.

93-95/96 is likely his peak.

[Chicago White Sox]

So to answer the question, here’s how I see the 2019 rotation shaking out over time:

Opening Day:

1. Rodon
2. Lopez
3. Giolito
4. Cheap Veteran
5. Covey

Mid to Late April:

1. Rodon
2. Lopez
3. Giolito
4. Kopech
5. Stephens

- Covey & cheap veteran moved to bullpen (or possibly released).

July / August

1. Rodon
2. Kopech
3. Lopez
4. Giolito / Cease
5. Stephens / Dunning

- Cease & Dunning replace any weak points in the rotation (excluding Rodon & Kopech)

[Thad Bosley]

26 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So to answer the question, here’s how I see the 2019 rotation shaking out over time:

Opening Day:

1. Rodon
2. Lopez
3. Giolito
4. Cheap Veteran
5. Covey

Mid to Late April:

1. Rodon
2. Lopez
3. Giolito
4. Kopech
5. Stephens

- Covey & cheap veteran moved to bullpen (or possibly released).

July / August

1. Rodon
2. Kopech
3. Lopez
4. Giolito / Cease
5. Stephens / Dunning

- Cease & Dunning replace any weak points in the rotation (excluding Rodon & Kopech)

Still hoping Alec Hansen can rebound and figure into the equation somehow.