When will the White Sox be good?

[footlongcomiskeydog]

14 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

If you can trade a high risk pitcher for 2 or more top 50 prospects, you  always do it regardless of what stage of a rebuild you're in (unless he's truly elite). I like Rodon. I don't like Rodon's shoulder. 

What if you move Rodon for two top 50 pitching prospects ala the Eaton trade? 

[caulfield12]

You’re not going to get that for Rodon until he proves to be 100% all the way through next year’s trade deadline...

[GreenSox]

13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Yet somehow the A’s went from the best team in baseball at the end of 2014...to one of the best teams in baseball again with just three years in between, in one of the more talented divisions in baseball.

They traded Samardzja...we had three top 30 talents to help springboard our rebuild.

As retool; they don't rebuild.  They cycle players out.  Which is what the White Sox started to do in 2013 and should have stuck to doing....but they did the opposite and decided that Todd Frazier, Adam Laroche and Melky Cabrera were transformational players.

Edited August 19, 2018 by GreenSox

[footlongcomiskeydog]

13 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said:

Going by the comments in the Moncada thread the Sox would do well to get Hanson lol.

Moncada wRC+ of 90

Hanson wRC+ of 106

First step is to get robot umps. Next step is to play baseball based on projection and ZIPS. 

[Lip Man 1]

6 hours ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

The idea of trading Carlos Rodon this offseason has been floating around these parts and others lately and it makes little sense to me. The kid is finally starting to put it together and is under team control for 2019, 2020, and 2021. Why in the world would you want to trade him now for more prospects? Does this sound crazy to anyone else?

The Sox are past the teardown stage of the rebuild. The rest of this year and next should be developmental years but the Sox should be trying to get after it in 2020 ( year 4 of the rebuild). Carlos Rodon should be in those plans and will hopefully be an anchor at the top of the rotation. 

Whenever someone is critical of the Sox rebuild, people love to preach patience and point to the success of the Cubs and Astros. Well, the Cubs and Astros certainly didn't trade away any of their young cost-controlled future studs during the early parts of their rebuild.

A trade of Rodon would signal that people are cool with punting away the 2020 and 2021 seasons. That is not cool with me and I'm sure other Sox fans feel the same. This year and last have pretty much sucked and I don't want to sit through 3 or 4 more years of garbage baseball.  Let's forget about prospect hoarding and start moving in a winning direction! 

 

I don't think anybody relishes the idea of trading Rodon, especially if he realizes his great potential and turns into a star pitcher. But the reality of his situation is this...as long as Scott Boras is his agent, the odds are tremendous he will take him to free agency. That's his M.O...his job is to get as much money as he can for his clients.

Now take into account the Sox are one of three teams (I think) that have never given out a nine figure contract, if Rodon starts to blossom he very well could command that on the open market. The Sox can't put themselves in a position where he walks and they get nothing for him.

Now the joker in all this is that who knows who will own the Sox around he time he becomes a free agent. It could still be JR, it could be someone else. If it is someone else all bets are off, the situation could be radically different.

The other factor is the overall state of the rebuild. I was hoping the Sox would make a big improvement in 2019, contend for a wild card in 2020 and get really good in 2021. That could still happen if the Sox are aggressive this off season but with all the injuries to key minor league prospects (and who knows what will eventually happen with Dunning and Hansen)  their development has been stunted, time has been lost that you can't get back.

I'm thinking now 2020 for when they make a big leap in the win column, 2021 when they contend for a wild card and 2022 when they should be good.

Just my opinion. I honestly hope though the time table gets speeded up, when you are about to have your 6th straight losing season (last time 1944-1950) and ninth losing season in 12 years (last time that bad of a stretch 1968-1980) with everything else impacting the franchise (poor TV ratings and a new contract coming up, attendance, lack of media coverage, Cubs success in the same town and fans wondering about the ability of the front office to successfully execute the rebuild) you can't go forever and expect the fan base to still be there.

Edited August 19, 2018 by Lip Man 1

[soxfan49]

12 minutes ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

What if you move Rodon for two top 50 pitching prospects ala the Eaton trade? 

You said pitching prospects are ticking time bombs in another thread earlier today. Now you’re hesitant to trade a pitcher who has shoulder issues. Which is it, man?

[GreenSox]

Rodon gives the Sox some much needed pitching stability;  they have plenty of time to trade him...not to mention that the Sox control him for a year or two in what SHOULD be their contending period.
And really, how many more top 10 draft choices, top 100 prospects does Hahn need to fix this thing?  He's had an abundance of them. None have done much at all on the major league level.  We would have seen more progress had Fulmer, Giolito, Lopez, and Moncada performed to expectations.
I'm not saying that you can't always use top 100 prospects.  Obviously, the more you have the better.  But it's not like the Sox have a deficit in that regard that is causing this rebuild to linger.
On the other hand, Abreu is NOT controlled in the contention window.

[footlongcomiskeydog]

2 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

You said pitching prospects are ticking time bombs in another thread earlier today. Now you’re hesitant to trade a pitcher who has shoulder issues. Which is it, man?

Rodon isn't a prospect anymore. Any player is tradable if the price is right, but Rodon is finally starting to look the guy we all expected him to be. You gotta fill out a rotation somehow. 

This thread is more about the state of the rebuild. The fact that people are seriously discussing moving Rodon means that things are moving quickly in the wrong direction. 

[BlackSox13]

3 minutes ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

Moncada wRC+ of 90

Hanson wRC+ of 106

First step is to get robot umps. Next step is to play baseball based on projection and ZIPS. 

When Hansen played at 23 ( Moncada's current age) he had a wRC+ of 35. At 24 last season between the Pirates and Sox Hansen's wRC+ was 59. Thank you for pointing out that despite his struggles, Moncada is better than Hansen was at 23. And Moncada has much more talent.

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

Rodon isn't a prospect anymore. Any player is tradable if the price is right, but Rodon is finally starting to look the guy we all expected him to be. You gotta fill out a rotation somehow. 

This thread is more about the state of the rebuild. The fact that people are seriously discussing moving Rodon means that things are moving quickly in the wrong direction. 

This would be even MORE of an issue if the White Sox had won 75 games and Rodon was Top 5 in the Cy Young balloting.  The only difference would be “three years of useful (to contention) Rodon” instead of just two and more likely one.

I just hope they don’t give Hahn another year or two of rebuilding to wait on whoever they receive back for Rodon to produce at the big league level.

I don’t even know if a Ricketts type with deep pockets would break the bank to extend Rodon...maybe, but it would be the equivalent of the Darvish deal for the franchise.

[footlongcomiskeydog]

17 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said:

When Hansen played at 23 ( Moncada's current age) he had a wRC+ of 35. At 24 last season between the Pirates and Sox Hansen's wRC+ was 59. Thank you for pointing out that despite his struggles, Moncada is better than Hansen was at 23. And Moncada has much more talent.

Alen Hanson is a scrap heap player who signed for 90K. Yoan Moncada is a guy who got a 40 million dollar signing bonus and a former #1 prospect in all of baseball. On paper, Hanson shouldn't even be close to sniffing Moncada's jock but baseball is a crazy game. 

[caulfield12]

21 minutes ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

Alen Hanson is a scrap heap player who signed for 90K. Yoan Moncada is a guy who got a 40 million dollar signing bonus and a former #1 prospect in all of baseball. On paper, Hanson shouldn't even be close to sniffing Moncada's jock but baseball is a crazy game. 

What was Voldemort’s signing bonus with the Sox?

Let’s not forget Soler, Yasmani Tomas, Hector Olivera and Rusney Castillo.  The primary difference is the 4 organizations who invested that crazy money all are in playoff hunts currently.  They were able to successfully absorb the payroll hits.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

How is Rodon their last large piece? What about Abreu, Avi, Sanchez, Shields? None of these guys have any future with the White Sox. 

 

Which of those guys is a "large piece"?

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

Rodon isn't a prospect anymore. Any player is tradable if the price is right, but Rodon is finally starting to look the guy we all expected him to be. You gotta fill out a rotation somehow. 

This thread is more about the state of the rebuild. The fact that people are seriously discussing moving Rodon means that things are moving quickly in the wrong direction. 

This is genuinely correct. We may not want to move Rodon this offseason, it makes no sense that other teams would give up 2 top 25-ish players for him, but if a team put that on the table the White Sox should do that move, because there's a good chance he will not be worth that next year and there's a good chance the White Sox will be looking at longer term talent than Rodon represents.

If he is still on a roll next season and healthy...and if the White Sox are staring at their entire first wave of prospects still struggling and looking like they don't belong in the big leagues...where we are right now...then the chances of teams offering a fair price for him should be higher, and the White Sox's motivation to move him should be higher as well. So, I think the right answer is to jump if anyone offers an appropriate deal this offseason, but expect that we have to wait for Rodon to prove more, and that by next trade deadline we might have out best chance.

I don't believe I would offer a fair price for his performance if I was an opposing GM, but hey, I've seen the deals Rick Hahn made, so GMs do offer terrible trades sometimes. The thing that would interrupt this decision making is the White Sox's current talent showing stronger success, but right now, I think we're deservedly skeptical about that. If the current struggles are not interrupted by next July and Rodon is still looking legit...it will be time.

[footlongcomiskeydog]

1 hour ago, Lip Man 1 said:

I don't think anybody relishes the idea of trading Rodon, especially if he realizes his great potential and turns into a star pitcher. But the reality of his situation is this...as long as Scott Boras is his agent, the odds are tremendous he will take him to free agency. That's his M.O...his job is to get as much money as he can for his clients.

Now take into account the Sox are one of three teams (I think) that have never given out a nine figure contract, if Rodon starts to blossom he very well could command that on the open market. The Sox can't put themselves in a position where he walks and they get nothing for him.

Now the joker in all this is that who knows who will own the Sox around he time he becomes a free agent. It could still be JR, it could be someone else. If it is someone else all bets are off, the situation could be radically different.

The other factor is the overall state of the rebuild. I was hoping the Sox would make a big improvement in 2019, contend for a wild card in 2020 and get really good in 2021. That could still happen if the Sox are aggressive this off season but with all the injuries to key minor league prospects (and who knows what will eventually happen with Dunning and Hansen)  their development has been stunted, time has been lost that you can't get back.

I'm thinking now 2020 for when they make a big leap in the win column, 2021 when they contend for a wild card and 2022 when they should be good.

Just my opinion. I honestly hope though the time table gets speeded up, when you are about to have your 6th straight losing season (last time 1944-1950) and ninth losing season in 12 years (last time that bad of a stretch 1968-1980) with everything else impacting the franchise (poor TV ratings and a new contract coming up, attendance, lack of media coverage, Cubs success in the same town and fans wondering about the ability of the front office to successfully execute the rebuild) you can't go forever and expect the fan base to still be there.

Good god man. Go back and look at the articles around the time of the Sale and Eaton trade. The Sox front office was talking about this organization being a team to reckon with in 2019/2020.  Now the window is supposed to start in 2022? If that is the case, then just avoid the inevitable and fire Hahn and company now. 

[NWINFan]

Lack of durability would be the only reason so trade Rodon. But if the Sox would have such worries, other teams might, too. So what kind of marketability would Rodon have?

The teardown is complete. If these prospects are so damned good, promote a few in 2019 and see what they can do. In the meantime, you can't keep trading away the few major league caliber players you have.

As far as when the White Sox will be good? I don't think anyone can answer that.

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Who says no?

Carlos Rodon & Kevan Smith for AJ Puk, Sean Murphy, & Lazaro Armenteros.

[spiderman]

21 minutes ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

How is Rodon their last large piece? What about Abreu, Avi, Sanchez, Shields? None of these guys have any future with the White Sox. 

Abreu should have been moved a long time ago. Let Davidson, Skole, or Casey Gillapsie play first until Gavin Sheets is ready. Same for Avi. Give the playing time in Right to Cordell, Leury, and Tilson.

DFA Shields and promote Stephens or Jordan Guerrero. 

The Sox are giving way too much playing time to guys who do not factor into their long term plans.

 

The players you mention have little/no trade value. Rodon does. Big difference between the two.

What do you think you're going to get in a trade for Abreu, Avi, Sanchez or Shields? As much as Sox fans may like Abreu, the return will be underwhelming.

From your response, you are implying that they have other large pieces. Who? Teams won't be willing to trade significant (or any) value for the players you have mentioned.

[southsider2k5]

11 hours ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

Good god man. Go back and look at the articles around the time of the Sale and Eaton trade. The Sox front office was talking about this organization being a team to reckon with in 2019/2020.  Now the window is supposed to start in 2022? If that is the case, then just avoid the inevitable and fire Hahn and company now. 

If you go back and read them closely, The front office wasn't setting the time line.  It was writers and fans.  The Sox have never picked a year.

[GreenSox]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If you go back and read them closely, The front office wasn't setting the time line.  It was writers and fans.  The Sox have never picked a year.

Of course they haven't and they won't.  The last "window" was never met , but quickly forgotten once the rebuild was announced.   Why should the FO bring accountability upon itself by announcing a window?

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Of course they haven't and they won't.  The last "window" was never met , but quickly forgotten once the rebuild was announced.   Why should the FO bring accountability upon itself by announcing a window?

Because it is pointless and only feeds the simple.

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Of course they haven't and they won't.  The last "window" was never met , but quickly forgotten once the rebuild was announced.   Why should the FO bring accountability upon itself by announcing a window?

There is absolutely zero reason for Hahn to publically announce a timeline other than to appease bitter fans who want to hold him accountable.  The reality is the timeline is fluid and will change as guys develop and/or bust.  We’re still way too early into the process to know with any level of certainty when the window will officially open.  I’m sure they’re hoping internally for 2020 to be the first year of serious contention, but as has been mentioned in this thread multiple times, the first wave has developed slower than expected and that creates more uncertainty.  And that uncertain is a big reason why it appears they won’t be calling up Jiménez & Kopech this year, which I applaud Rick for.  No need to rush this rebuild in a half-ass attempt to hit some imaginary deadline.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There is absolutely zero reason for Hahn to publically announce a timeline other than to appease bitter fans who want to hold him accountable.  The reality is the timeline is fluid and will change as guys develop and/or bust.  We’re still way too early into the process to know with any level of certainty when the window will officially open.  I’m sure they’re hoping internally for 2020 to be the first year of serious contention, but as has been mentioned in this thread multiple times, the first wave has developed slower than expected and that creates more uncertainty.  And that uncertain is a big reason why it appears they won’t be calling up Jiménez & Kopech this year, which I applaud Rick for.  No need to rush this rebuild in a half-ass attempt to hit some imaginary deadline.

Totally this. Why would you make goals and then refuse to adjust them as further information is available? 

[Chicago White Sox]

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Totally this. Why would you make goals and then refuse to adjust them as further information is available? 

Exactly.  I have no doubt in my mind that if Moncada, Giolito, & Lopez all looked like sure-fire studs halfway through the season that Eloy & Kopech would have been up sometime in July.  But that hasn’t happened, so it makes sense to slow things down and snag that extra year of team control for our two most important prospects.  At the end of the day, the goal is sustainable success, not to simply be competitive by 2020.  I get Hahn has a spotty track record at best, but we should all want Rick to remain patient and do this rebuild the right way even if that means the timeline gets extended by a year.

[Two-Gun Pete]

12 hours ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

Good god man. Go back and look at the articles around the time of the Sale and Eaton trade. The Sox front office was talking about this organization being a team to reckon with in 2019/2020.  Now the window is supposed to start in 2022? If that is the case, then just avoid the inevitable and fire Hahn and company now. 

I wasn't opposed to doing just that BEFORE this whole process started. In fact, the heartbeat they decided to trade for James Shields would have been the timeframe I would have moved to launch the entire FO, "Red Wedding-Style."

 

Insofar as the timeframe being delayed for a competitive window, THAT'S exactly what happens when a FO screws up player development. When the best player this org can produce out of: Anderson, Fulmer, Giolito, Lopez, and Moncada is a cromulent ~2.0ish fWAR SS in Anderson, timeframes get delayed. In sum, this is the fruit of letting unfinished prospects, "learn at the Big League level," instead of letting them iron out the lion's share of their deficiencies in MiLB.

Speeding prospects to MLB increases urgency for them to perform, while shortening their expected timeframes to actually "figure things out." It also doesn't help that this org has incompetent on-field management/coaching in Chicago, and a relatively inexperienced Director of Player Development overseeing these prospects. Taken in totality, unless Giolito, Lopez, Moncada, and Anderson ALL take quantum leaps in their performance next season, AND some of the 2nd & 3rd wave prospects get healthy/progress next season, I'd say 2022 sounds about right.