Rebuild: Phase 3 has officially begun

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

** I posted this on Facebook, so ignore the spoonfeeding. My average FB friend isn't as in-tune to baseball, especially the Sox, as we all are**

 

 

 

Michael Kopech has been called up. Phase 2 of the rebuild begins today.

 

Phase 1 was acquiring talent for the minor league system, via trades, drafts (still 1 more big draft in 2019), and international signings.

 

Phase 2 is graduating those players to the major leagues. Not all players acquired in Phase 1 will make it here, and not all will become cogs in the future, but the more that reach this level, the exponentially closer the team gets to becoming a perennially winner. While Moncada, Giolito, and Lopez all represent players acquired during Phase 1, all 3 of them made their major league debuts with their previous clubs. None were products of the White Sox system. Kopech (Sale trade) represents the beginning of a Tsunami of prospect talent that is on its way to the South Side, that were groomed by the reworked player development team.

 

Phase 3 will be signing and trading for veterans, and that phase could start as soon as November of this year, with both Phase 2 and Phase 3 continuing concurrently for a couple of years.

 

Phase 4 will be the contender phase, where the team will be poised for a playoff spot, and Phase 5 will be sustained success, where all 5 phases are occurring simultaneously and feeding each other.

 

None of these phases of a rebuild are promised. Some teams flame out and have to start back over. Some get stuck in neutral for a few years.

 

But one thing is promised. Phase 2 has officially begun, Michael Kopech will pitch in Chicago on Tuesday, and you bet your sweet ass I'll be there. ??

Edited December 30, 2019 by ChiliIrishHammock24

[caulfield12]

I'm not sure exactly where the "tsunami" of talent is in Wave 2, once you get past JImenez and Kopech.

Theoretically, you can include Burdi, and then Collins/Cease, although both those players are likely at least 1/2 season away from the big leagues still.  Basabe would be the next, unless you want to include Zavala, which is pushing it (especially with the emergence of Narvaez and Palka/Delmonico's return).  Ian Hamilton, too. 

I guess 6 players is "relatively close" to a wave, and (7) with Dunning, but he's probably even further behind...and the slide backwards of (8) Hansen has compounded that depth problem in the rotation.

One would think that who they sign for the pitching staff in the FA market is going to be the biggest indicator.  If it's merely a couple of veteran placeholders or they really break out the wallets for the equivalent of a Lester/Darvish/Arrieta-like signing (which many would argue would be at least 1 1/2 years too early.)

 

Edited August 20, 2018 by caulfield12

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I'm not sure exactly where the "tsunami" of talent is in Wave 2, once you get past JImenez and Kopech.

Theoretically, you can include Burdi, and then Collins/Cease, although both those players are likely at least 1/2 season away from the big leagues still.  Basabe would be the next, unless you want to include Zavala, which is pushing it (especially with the emergence of Narvaez and Palka/Delmonico's return).

One would think that who they sign for the pitching staff in the FA market is going to be the biggest indicator.  If it's merely a couple of veteran placeholders or they really break out the wallets for the equivalent of a Lester/Darvish/Arrieta-like signing (which many would argue would be at least 1 1/2 years too early.)

 

Replace the metaphor with "floodgates opening" if you wish, but you understand the point. Kopech is the first of many prospects we will be graduating through our system for this rebuild. 

[Lip Man 1]

13 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

** I posted this on Facebook, so ignore the spoonfeeding. My average FB friend isn't as in-tune to baseball, especially the Sox, as we all are**

 

 

 

Michael Kopech has been called up. Phase 2 of the rebuild begins today.

 

Phase 1 was acquiring talent for the minor league system, via trades, drafts (still 1 more big draft in 2019), and international signings.

 

Phase 2 is graduating those players to the major leagues. Not all players acquired in Phase 1 will make it here, and not all will become cogs in the future, but the more that reach this level, the exponentially closer the team gets to becoming a perennially winner. While Moncada, Giolito, and Lopez all represent players acquired during Phase 1, all 3 of them made their major league debuts with their previous clubs. None were products of the White Sox system. Kopech (Sale trade) represents the beginning of a Tsunami of prospect talent that is on its way to the South Side, that were groomed by the reworked player development team.

 

Phase 3 will be signing and trading for veterans, and that phase could start as soon as November of this year, with both Phase 2 and Phase 3 continuing concurrently for a couple of years.

 

Phase 4 will be the contender phase, where the team will be poised for a playoff spot, and Phase 5 will be sustained success, where all 5 phases are occurring simultaneously and feeding each other.

 

None of these phases of a rebuild are promised. Some teams flame out and have to start back over. Some get stuck in neutral for a few years.

 

But one thing is promised. Phase 2 has officially begun, Michael Kopech will pitch in Chicago on Tuesday, and you bet your sweet ass I'll be there. ??

This post reminded me of the Underpants Gnomes from "South Park..."

Phase 1 = Collect Underpants

Phase 2 = ?

Phase 3 = Profit 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

23 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

This post reminded me of the Underpants Gnomes from "South Park..."

Phase 1 = Collect Underpants

Phase 2 = ?

Phase 3 = Profit 

Collect underpants is Phase 6. Please don't go ahead.

[jenksycat]

15 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

I'm not sure exactly where the "tsunami" of talent is in Wave 2, once you get past JImenez and Kopech.

Theoretically, you can include Burdi, and then Collins/Cease, although both those players are likely at least 1/2 season away from the big leagues still.  Basabe would be the next, unless you want to include Zavala, which is pushing it (especially with the emergence of Narvaez and Palka/Delmonico's return).  Ian Hamilton, too. 

I guess 6 players is "relatively close" to a wave, and (7) with Dunning, but he's probably even further behind...and the slide backwards of (8) Hansen has compounded that depth problem in the rotation.

One would think that who they sign for the pitching staff in the FA market is going to be the biggest indicator.  If it's merely a couple of veteran placeholders or they really break out the wallets for the equivalent of a Lester/Darvish/Arrieta-like signing (which many would argue would be at least 1 1/2 years too early.)

 

Proving that kind of move is a massive risk.  If we don't have a solid staff by 2020 & need to drop a hundo on a free agent 'ace' with Rodon/Kopech/Cease/Lopez/Gio/Dunning/Hansen then the rebuild kinda sucked.

[Lip Man 1]

4 hours ago, jenksycat said:

Proving that kind of move is a massive risk.  If we don't have a solid staff by 2020 & need to drop a hundo on a free agent 'ace' with Rodon/Kopech/Cease/Lopez/Gio/Dunning/Hansen then the rebuild kinda sucked.

Just playing devil's advocate...by 2020 Rodon may be traded because of his agent and Dunning and Hansen may not be ready because of lost developmental time due to injuries.  That leaves four from your list, which means the Sox would need to get another starting pitcher

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

46 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Just playing devil's advocate...by 2020 Rodon may be traded because of his agent and Dunning and Hansen may not be ready because of lost developmental time due to injuries.  That leaves four from your list, which means the Sox would need to get another starting pitcher

Hansen, sure, but Dunning is back to pitching. He will probably start 2019 in AA, but spend most of his season in AAA. He could be ready for the majors by early 2020. No reason to trade Rodon if you think you can be competitive in 2020 and 2021.

By summer of 2020, you could be looking at Rodon, Kopech, Giolito, Lopez with one of Cease/Dunning/Covey/Stephens/Guerrero taking that 5th spot. 

I don't see us throwing big money at a starter any time soon. I could see us signing a veteran like Verlander for 2 years (He will be 37) or Tanner Roark to a 3-year deal (33 yrs old) just to give us a veteran presence with playoff experience, but not to any long term deals.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

And Phase 2.....continues.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

50 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

And Phase 2.....continues.

Phase 3 will be signing and trading for veterans, and that phase could start as soon as November of this year, with both Phase 2 and Phase 3 continuing concurrently for a couple of years

Well you got it right .The FO just screwed it up . Injuries screwed it up. Moncada and Giolito screwed it up. However there is this season and next ,for all those bad  things that happened, to rebound . Moncada, Lopez ,Eloy ,Cease, Kopech, Robert , Madrigal etc. still could be the Tsunami. Phase 3 is on delay until further notice. Maybe late 2019 or early 2020 the FO learns how to live in the present.

Edited February 21, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

On 8/21/2018 at 12:51 PM, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Hansen, sure, but Dunning is back to pitching. He will probably start 2019 in AA, but spend most of his season in AAA. He could be ready for the majors by early 2020. No reason to trade Rodon if you think you can be competitive in 2020 and 2021.

By summer of 2020, you could be looking at Rodon, Kopech, Giolito, Lopez with one of Cease/Dunning/Covey/Stephens/Guerrero taking that 5th spot. 

I don't see us throwing big money at a starter any time soon. I could see us signing a veteran like Verlander for 2 years (He will be 37) or Tanner Roark to a 3-year deal (33 yrs old) just to give us a veteran presence with playoff experience, but not to any long term deals.

Yuck, I see they're also pushing Banuelos' name out there as well.  We all know how this story goes, just like Tyler Danish, Adams or Chris Beck. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Yuck, I see they're also pushing Banuelos' name out there as well.  We all know how this story goes, just like Tyler Danish, Adams or Chris Beck. 

It would absolutely not be surprising if one of those many names stepped up and became a quality middle-of-the-rotation starter (outside of Cease). With that number of guys, it'd honestly be a little disappointing if none of them did.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It would absolutely not be surprising if one of those many names stepped up and became a quality middle-of-the-rotation starter (outside of Cease). With that number of guys, it'd honestly be a little disappointing if none of them did.

But it seems we say that nearly every year.

Other than Daniel Hudson and Brandon McCarthy, it's hard to recall a starting pitcher shooting from obscurity to top prospect status or at least effective big league results in the Sox system, unless you go back further to guys like Buehrle and Josh Fogg who weren't highly touted.

By the way, we could have solved this problem by giving J. Guerra more of a chance.  The Brewers simply out-scouted/outworked the Sox, who didn't know what they had in him.

[OneDog847]

The Sox seem to be closer to phase 1 than phase 2. They still need to continue to build up the farm. Got the #3 pick this year.  Most likely another top 5 pick in 2020 and 2021 as well. Need to hit the international market hard now that the Robert penalty is lifted. 

Abreu, Alonso, Jay, Castillo, Colome, Herrera, and Jones can all be flipped over the next couple of years as well. I would think about moving Rodon this July if he is pitching lights out as well and sell high on him ala the Eaton trade. 

Need to continue to stock the farm! 

 

[caulfield12]

26 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

The Sox seem to be closer to phase 1 than phase 2. They still need to continue to build up the farm. Got the #3 pick this year.  Most likely another top 5 pick in 2020 and 2021 as well. Need to hit the international market hard now that the Robert penalty is lifted. 

Abreu, Alonso, Jay, Castillo, Colome, Herrera, and Jones can all be flipped over the next couple of years as well. I would think about moving Rodon this July if he is pitching lights out as well and sell high on him ala the Eaton trade. 

Need to continue to stock the farm! 

 

We've been saying this EVERY SINGLE YEAR SINCE 2013...

How many really good returns have we got from these reclamation projects...Kahnle and Swarzak seem like the only two who actually panned out for us in recent years.   Matt Albers gave us a decent 2-3 months, he's actually done surprisingly well since leaving the Sox...he was really out of shape when he was on our roster.

[OneDog847]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We've been saying this EVERY SINGLE YEAR SINCE 2013...

How many really good returns have we got from these reclamation projects...Kahnle and Swarzak seem like the only two who actually panned out for us in recent years.   Matt Albers gave us a decent 2-3 months, he's actually done surprisingly well since leaving the Sox...he was really out of shape when he was on our roster.

Saying what since 2013? The Sox were trying to compete back then.

Colome and/or Herrera could net some interesting pieces if they pitch well this year. Rodon too. Castillo, Alonso, and Jay will just be salary dumps.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, OneDog847 said:

Saying what since 2013? The Sox were trying to compete back then.

Colome and/or Herrera could net some interesting pieces if they pitch well this year. Rodon too. Castillo, Alonso, and Jay will just be salary dumps.

Positing the theory that such a such a player would be an excellent "flip" candidate...maybe not 2013, because we were coming off the 2012 season where we led the division for much of the season, but definitely 2014 and beyond (even if we "pretended" to be competing, it was just a half-assed attempt, highlighted by players like Samardzija and Frazier.)

Edited February 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[Cashman]

Just now, OneDog847 said:

The Sox seem to be closer to phase 1 than phase 2. They still need to continue to build up the farm. Got the #3 pick this year.  Most likely another top 5 pick in 2020 and 2021 as well. Need to hit the international market hard now that the Robert penalty is lifted. 

Abreu, Alonso, Jay, Castillo, Colome, Herrera, and Jones can all be flipped over the next couple of years as well. I would think about moving Rodon this July if he is pitching lights out as well and sell high on him ala the Eaton trade. 

Need to continue to stock the farm! 

 

100% agree with this. We are turning into the Pirates of the late 90s early 2000s.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 hours ago, OneDog847 said:

The Sox seem to be closer to phase 1 than phase 2. They still need to continue to build up the farm. Got the #3 pick this year.  Most likely another top 5 pick in 2020 and 2021 as well. Need to hit the international market hard now that the Robert penalty is lifted. 

Abreu, Alonso, Jay, Castillo, Colome, Herrera, and Jones can all be flipped over the next couple of years as well. I would think about moving Rodon this July if he is pitching lights out as well and sell high on him ala the Eaton trade. 

Need to continue to stock the farm! 

 

And this is why a big FA splash this winter felt premature. I know a 26 yo HOF talent never hits free agency blah blah but we don’t even know yet if the Sox have assembled a young core that is capable of carrying this rebuild to sustained success. They are still very much in the stage of accumulating young, cheap talent to determine who comprises the core moving forward. Having said that, I’d say the rebuild is straddling Phase 1/2 at the moment. At this point, I only want to see them start Phase 3 next winter if the core of Moncada, Lopez, Gio, Jimenez, Anderson shows up in a big way this season. If not, continue with Phase 1/2. Eventually, the cream rises to the top in spite of coaching and player development shortcomings.

Edited February 22, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And this is why a big FA splash this winter felt premature. I know a 26 yo HOF talent never hits free agency blah blah but we don’t even know yet if the Sox have assembled a young core that is capable of carrying this rebuild to sustained success. They are still very much in the stage of accumulating young, cheap talent to determine who comprises the core moving forward. Having said that, I’d say the rebuild is straddling Phase 1/2 at the moment. At this point, I only want to see them start Phase 3 next winter if the core of Moncada, Lopez, Gio, Jimenez, Anderson shows up in a big way this season. If not, continue with Phase 1/2. Eventually, the cream rises to the top in spite of coaching and player development shortcomings.

Except the problem with that is so much of the core will be nearing the last years of their contracts from 2021-23 that they’ll simply be in a perpetual state of rebuilding like the A’s or Rays...

[JuliusO1274]

17 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And this is why a big FA splash this winter felt premature. I know a 26 yo HOF talent never hits free agency blah blah but we don’t even know yet if the Sox have assembled a young core that is capable of carrying this rebuild to sustained success. They are still very much in the stage of accumulating young, cheap talent to determine who comprises the core moving forward. Having said that, I’d say the rebuild is straddling Phase 1/2 at the moment. At this point, I only want to see them start Phase 3 next winter if the core of Moncada, Lopez, Gio, Jimenez, Anderson shows up in a big way this season. If not, continue with Phase 1/2. Eventually, the cream rises to the top in spite of coaching and player development shortcomings.

Why would it be premature when the big FA splash would be signing on for 8-10 years with the team? 

[Dominikk85]

8 hours ago, OneDog847 said:

The Sox seem to be closer to phase 1 than phase 2. They still need to continue to build up the farm. Got the #3 pick this year.  Most likely another top 5 pick in 2020 and 2021 as well. Need to hit the international market hard now that the Robert penalty is lifted. 

Abreu, Alonso, Jay, Castillo, Colome, Herrera, and Jones can all be flipped over the next couple of years as well. I would think about moving Rodon this July if he is pitching lights out as well and sell high on him ala the Eaton trade. 

Need to continue to stock the farm! 

 

I think they are in both phases. The bulk of their core is still there but they will still still acquire key pieces to the farm albeit of course the farm won't get as strong again as it was a year ago.

But overall this core of prospects plus the 19 and 20 picks need to get the job done.  The sox won't be able to collect another collection as strong as they currently have if they fail (because they don't have a sale, Quintana, Eaton to trade).

They simply need more health and development from the guys they have.

[Moan4Yoan]

4 minutes ago, JuliusO1274 said:

Why would it be premature when the big FA splash would be signing on for 8-10 years with the team? 

It wouldn’t be and no one that has argued this point has explained why it would be premature.  Even if you sign Arenado or Rendon next offseason, they will both be 29 at the beginning of the season.  Both Harper and Machado will still be younger going forward.  It’s just a weak argument to try to deny Hahn’s failure to land a top free agent after planning to do so for over a year.

[OneDog847]

39 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And this is why a big FA splash this winter felt premature. I know a 26 yo HOF talent never hits free agency blah blah but we don’t even know yet if the Sox have assembled a young core that is capable of carrying this rebuild to sustained success. They are still very much in the stage of accumulating young, cheap talent to determine who comprises the core moving forward. Having said that, I’d say the rebuild is straddling Phase 1/2 at the moment. At this point, I only want to see them start Phase 3 next winter if the core of Moncada, Lopez, Gio, Jimenez, Anderson shows up in a big way this season. If not, continue with Phase 1/2. Eventually, the cream rises to the top in spite of coaching and player development shortcomings.

Yep. Straddling phase 1/2 is correct. I guess you could say that they are at phase 1.5. Gotta keep playing the young kids and see what you have. Sucks to say, but winning games shouldn't be much of a priority yet for the Sox. Still need a couple more top 5 picks to supplement the "core". 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, JuliusO1274 said:

Why would it be premature when the big FA splash would be signing on for 8-10 years with the team? 

Because you’d be spending $65M for the first two years of a contract in which the team has basically little to no chance of making the playoffs. We still don’t know if the young core at the MLB level is good enough. However, what if Moncada proves to be a solid 3 WAR 3b and Madrigal comes up next year as a solid 2-3 WAR 2b moving forward but the Sox still can’t seem to figure out how to adequately address other positions like catcher, center field, SP, etc? Now they’ve tied themselves to a $300M contract to fill an area that is no longer a weakness and limited their flexibility in addressing areas of true weakness. Bottom line is we still don’t know what we have with this collection of young players (both in MLB and minors). That’s why it felt premature.