32-34 since July 10

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 hours ago, Flash said:

Depends on whether the performance improvements by Gio and Lopez are sustainable. If yes, they can win 81 or more. I would like to see them sign a 3rd baseman with some pop, even if not named Machado. If Engle maintains his trajectory and Avi can return to close to last years form, who's to say they can't compete for WC next year? 

Sox will have a choice of Donaldson and maybe Moustakas if KC doesn't exercise the option on him. Marwin Gonzales plays 3rd  too but his thing is super utility. He might want a chance to be more though . Not sure how good of a fielder he is.

[raBBit]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Sox will have a choice of Donaldson and maybe Moustakas if KC doesn't exercise the option on him. Marwin Gonzales plays 3rd  too but his thing is super utility. He might want a chance to be more though . Not sure how good of a fielder he is.

Moustakas plays for the Brewers now. 

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, ptatc said:

I'm not sure Avi will have a full time role next year. Eloy will 've up at some point and the C.F. will also be RH. That leaves the RF as the only possibility for a LH. Renters seems to like the matchup the with LH and RH. Right now the only possible other LH are Narvaez, Moncada and Sanchez. I'm sure they'll look to upgrade Sanchez at 3B and Castillo will be the primary catcher. So Moncada and DH are the only consistent LH.

I have hinted at it before, but I think this is the year that Avi is non-tendered.  His price tag in last year was just under $7 million.  This year we are looking at maybe $10 million?  Don't see it happening with the Sox really needing OF spots.

[southsider2k5]

11 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

Am I crazy for thinking that this team, with no major free agent signings, is an ~81 win team in 2019? 

For once, I will say that it is possible.  You have seen a lot of the team take the right step forward already, and even with those who haven't when you are talking about a 26-21 stretch, that is nearly 1/3 of a season that the Sox have had sustained success over.  I know the process has been slower than many can handle, but it is happening. 

The big thing going forward is the majority of the starting rotation and bullpen are now in place, and in most cases having success or growing in their abilities at the major league level.  While the pen will be ultra-young next year, and will have times of struggle because of it, there are going to be some freaking electric arms out there.  That is still with Tyler Johnson and Zach Burdi still looming on the horizon, and not counting any potential failed starters who could find homes out there. 

The starting rotation after about a year of work for Lopez and Giolito is also seeing the work start to pay off.  Plus we still have some incredible arms on the horizon with guys like Cease, Dunning, and others lurking behind them.

The starting line up is most likely to be the weak spot as the least amount of premium talent has arrived there, but imagine the jump in talent when we go from Nicky Delmonico to Eloy Jimenez hitting around Jose Abreu?

[Greg Hibbard]

There's more than a few things that would have to go right though, for this kind of record to continue WITHOUT adding FA.

1) Rodon has to continue to be a nearly 2 point FIP beater. He is pitching very very very well, but the numbers seem more than a little unsustainable given his FIP.

2) Giolito and Lopez have to continue to pitch at the near-best levels of their career. Can that continue without any hiccups?

3) Kopech has to continue to be dominant. He's gotten washed out of a couple, but he gave the White Sox scoreless innings and allowed them to jump out front.

4) The White Sox hitters have to keep hitting as many home runs as they have recently (they have 43 in the past 32 games), as that is their best way to score, and often their only clear way. Obviously the addition of Abreu would ameliorate things in that department.

It's likely that before long, one of our big four will slump and the power outage will render us incapable of scoring as much.

I think the core is now there, but this is probably more like a .500 or slightly below .500 team unchanged.

Edited September 4, 2018 by Greg Hibbard

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, raBBit said:

Moustakas plays for the Brewers now. 

LOL I knew that. Thats what I get for posting right after I wake up. It's not like I haven't seen him 20 times already since the trade in Brewers highlight on MLB Network. P

[southsider2k5]

50 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

There's more than a few things that would have to go right though, for this kind of record to continue WITHOUT adding FA.

1) Rodon has to continue to be a nearly 2 point FIP beater. He is pitching very very very well, but the numbers seem more than a little unsustainable given his FIP.

2) Giolito and Lopez have to continue to pitch at the near-best levels of their career. Can that continue without any hiccups?

3) Kopech has to continue to be dominant. He's gotten washed out of a couple, but he gave the White Sox scoreless innings and allowed them to jump out front.

4) The White Sox hitters have to keep hitting as many home runs as they have recently (they have 43 in the past 32 games), as that is their best way to score, and often their only clear way. Obviously the addition of Abreu would ameliorate things in that department.

It's likely that before long, one of our big four will slump and the power outage will render us incapable of scoring as much.

I think the core is now there, but this is probably more like a .500 or slightly below .500 team unchanged.

Eh, there is also downside that could pick up too. 

-Moncada still hasn't hit his stride by any stretch.

-The bullpen has been HORRIBLE.

-Injuries have taken away both Avi and Abreu in this stretch, along with Leury.

[chitownsportsfan]

81 wins next year would probably mean that between Eloy, Jose, Avi, Moncada and TA you get about 15 WAR.  Not sure that's realistic.

[Jose Abreu]

3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

81 wins next year would probably mean that between Eloy, Jose, Avi, Moncada and TA you get about 15 WAR.  Not sure that's realistic.

I don't see why that has to be the case. I think a lot of the winning would come from the starters (mainly Rodon/Kopech) and the new and improved bullpen. Not sure if that group would give 15 WAR but I could easily see 10, where Tim/Yoan/Eloy combine for 8-9 of it. 

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

81 wins next year would probably mean that between Eloy, Jose, Avi, Moncada and TA you get about 15 WAR.  Not sure that's realistic.

3 WAR each basically? 

-Tim Anderson already has 2.5 this year, so is on pace for right at 3. 

-Abreu has been hurt this year, and is sitting at 1.4 right now.  If you ended his season today he has 16.1 WAR in 5 seasons, so even with a bad 2018, he has averaged 3.2 WAR/yr.

-Yoan is sitting at 1.2 for this year, and with even marginal improvement it isn't that hard to see him getting to 2.5 or 3 next year, by simply holding on to his defensive gains in the second half, plus making some progress on strike 2. Specifically on the defensive side of things, his ratings have suffered most of all due to his error rate, which has plummeted at the season has gone on.  Of his 18 errors, 8 of them happened in June.  He has only had 5 errors since June 30 covering 53 games.  His other D ratings at 2B are all plus once you eliminate the errors.  For example Yoan leads MLB 2B in OOZ plays.

-Eloy might be a tough bet, but I am going to guess his bat alone is a 3 WAR bat.

-Avi put up 4.2 WAR in 2017 in a career year, so it is in there, but I also think Avi won't be around next year.

[ptatc]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I have hinted at it before, but I think this is the year that Avi is non-tendered.  His price tag in last year was just under $7 million.  This year we are looking at maybe $10 million?  Don't see it happening with the Sox really needing OF spots.

This is where I'm leaning as well.

[chitownsportsfan]

18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

3 WAR each basically? 

-Tim Anderson already has 2.5 this year, so is on pace for right at 3. 

-Abreu has been hurt this year, and is sitting at 1.4 right now.  If you ended his season today he has 16.1 WAR in 5 seasons, so even with a bad 2018, he has averaged 3.2 WAR/yr.

-Yoan is sitting at 1.2 for this year, and with even marginal improvement it isn't that hard to see him getting to 2.5 or 3 next year, by simply holding on to his defensive gains in the second half, plus making some progress on strike 2. Specifically on the defensive side of things, his ratings have suffered most of all due to his error rate, which has plummeted at the season has gone on.  Of his 18 errors, 8 of them happened in June.  He has only had 5 errors since June 30 covering 53 games.  His other D ratings at 2B are all plus once you eliminate the errors.  For example Yoan leads MLB 2B in OOZ plays.

-Eloy might be a tough bet, but I am going to guess his bat alone is a 3 WAR bat.

-Avi put up 4.2 WAR in 2017 in a career year, so it is in there, but I also think Avi won't be around next year.

Def appreciate the optimism, we'll see.  Interesting tid bit on Yoan.

[Jose Abreu]

19 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

3 WAR each basically? 

-Tim Anderson already has 2.5 this year, so is on pace for right at 3. 

-Abreu has been hurt this year, and is sitting at 1.4 right now.  If you ended his season today he has 16.1 WAR in 5 seasons, so even with a bad 2018, he has averaged 3.2 WAR/yr.

-Yoan is sitting at 1.2 for this year, and with even marginal improvement it isn't that hard to see him getting to 2.5 or 3 next year, by simply holding on to his defensive gains in the second half, plus making some progress on strike 2. Specifically on the defensive side of things, his ratings have suffered most of all due to his error rate, which has plummeted at the season has gone on.  Of his 18 errors, 8 of them happened in June.  He has only had 5 errors since June 30 covering 53 games.  His other D ratings at 2B are all plus once you eliminate the errors.  For example Yoan leads MLB 2B in OOZ plays.

-Eloy might be a tough bet, but I am going to guess his bat alone is a 3 WAR bat.

-Avi put up 4.2 WAR in 2017 in a career year, so it is in there, but I also think Avi won't be around next year.

I noticed that both Yoan and TA lead their respective positions in out of zone plays by a large margin. Is this due to shifts, their range, or a mix of both? 

 

Also, on an unrelated note, if Tim plays defense like he has since mid-May, we could even see a 4 WAR year from him next season. 

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I noticed that both Yoan and TA lead their respective positions in out of zone plays by a large margin. Is this due to shifts, their range, or a mix of both? 

 

Also, on an unrelated note, if Tim plays defense like he has since mid-May, we could even see a 4 WAR year from him next season. 

Not sure how shifts play into those stats, but the two things TA and Yo both have are huge range, and 70 to 80 arms for their respective positions.

[Greg Hibbard]

Despite that 7 game losing streak the team is still .500 over the last 56 games. Pretty remarkable given the struggles and injuries to various key players.

[Greg Hibbard]

now 32-34 since July 10 (extrapolates to a 78.5 win season)

without Jose Abreu for most of it

with Yoan Moncada still developing and not being as good as he will be

with Dylan Covey still starting games

with a bullpen that isn't good

without Eloy Jimenez

mostly without Michael Kopech or with him being rained out of most starts

without any quality FA

Remember that Ozzie Guillen's "competitive" teams of 2009 and 2011 basically had the same winning percentage....
 

 

Edited September 26, 2018 by Greg Hibbard