Luis Avilan traded to Phillies for Felix Paulino

[Timmy U]

Burr > Paulino.  Therefore, Avilon < International slot $

Edited August 22, 2018 by Timmy U

[Y2Jimmy0]

This deal makes perfect sense. This was Avilan's value. They saved the $$ and they need to clear at least 9 spots for the Rule-5 draft. They couldn't afford to carry him on the 40-man this off-season when other players needed to be added. They also will bring back Bummer in September and Frare needs to be added as well. Those are your bullpen lefties next year. 

[ChiSox59]

40 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

This deal makes perfect sense. This was Avilan's value. They saved the $$ and they need to clear at least 9 spots for the Rule-5 draft. They couldn't afford to carry him on the 40-man this off-season when other players needed to be added. They also will bring back Bummer in September and Frare needs to be added as well. Those are your bullpen lefties next year. 

They saved $500k.  While that sounds like a ton of money to me, it's basically nothing.  They theoretically could have told the Phillies to pound sand if they didn't provide a better offer and then try to move Avilan in November before the Rule 5 deadline and maybe done a little better, perhaps find a more interesting guy that a team wasn't going to be able to protect.  But you never know.  The fact that Paulino is Rule 5 eligible and would need to be added anyway is a bit telling. 

Not a huge deal either way, but still a tad curious IMO. 

Edited August 22, 2018 by ChiSox59

[GGajewski18]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Not gonna lie I think this move is stupid.

It's not hard to think why the Sox moved Avilan and probably want to move Cedeno next.  

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

They saved $500k.  While that sounds like a ton of money to me, it's basically nothing.  They theoretically could have told the Phillies to pound sand if they didn't provide a better offer and then try to move Avilan in November before the Rule 5 deadline and maybe done a little better, perhaps find a more interesting guy that a team wasn't going to be able to protect.  But you never know.  The fact that Paulino is Rule 5 eligible and would need to be added anyway is a bit telling. 

Not a huge deal either way, but still a tad curious IMO. 

Yeah they could have held onto him and tried to move him at the Winter Meetings in the days prior to the Rule 5 Draft.

[Dick Allen]

For what they paid Soria and Avilan, the return is pretty weak. I think you could have just bought those guys for less.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Holding onto him longer is pointless though. Give the innings to Fry, Bummer and Frare down the stretch here. 

[steveno89]

2 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Burr > Paulino.  Therefore, Avilon < International slot $

 

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

For what they paid Soria and Avilan, the return is pretty weak. I think you could have just bought those guys for less.

They were not going to get a solid return for guys like Cedeno and Avilan in this environment. This seems largely about opening up the roster spot for younger players to pitch, and taking 40 man/rule five into consideration. 

 

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Holding onto him longer is pointless though. Give the innings to Fry, Bummer and Frare down the stretch here. 

Not if you get something that may actually help you in Chicago down the line its not.  Whether or not that would come to fruition, who knows.  But well worth risking $500k IMO.  Teams have done quite a bit better in recent weeks for similar arms. 

[bmags]

9 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

 

They were not going to get a solid return for guys like Cedeno and Avilan in this environment. This seems largely about opening up the roster spot for younger players to pitch, and taking 40 man/rule five into consideration. 

 

Are you telling me the only player blocking younger pitchers on this roster was luis avilan?

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

For what they paid Soria and Avilan, the return is pretty weak. I think you could have just bought those guys for less.

Avilan obviously had no great offers at the non-waiver deadline.

Like I said, one of two things happened here.  Either absolutely no one claimed him with literally no one being willing to claim him for just his salary owned, and this was the best offer on the market.  Or he went all of the way through the AL and almost all of the way through the NL with literally no one being willing to claim him for just his salary owned, so we got a trash return for the first team to want him.  Realistically if this is what the market looked like today, would it be worth losing a piece in the Rule 5 to gamble that he would be worth more in 3.5 months?

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Are you telling me the only player blocking younger pitchers on this roster was luis avilan?

Not at all.  I am also telling you that Luis Avilan is far from the only guy the Sox are trying move along.

[bmags]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

Not at all.  I am also telling you that Luis Avilan is far from the only guy the Sox are trying move along.

Yeah, I get it. But to be quite honest I'd value Avilan in the pen next year more than the guy they acquired. This was the most valuable fat they had and they got a soon to be 23 year old starting pitcher in high-a with fringe stuff.

It's not a big deal, but I just don't see a reason to align with GM think on this and be like " oh thank god we saved jerry reinsdorf 300k! PHEee-EWWW"

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yeah, I get it. But to be quite honest I'd value Avilan in the pen next year more than the guy they acquired. This was the most valuable fat they had and they got a soon to be 23 year old starting pitcher in high-a with fringe stuff.

It's not a big deal, but I just don't see a reason to align with GM think on this and be like " oh thank god we saved jerry reinsdorf 300k! PHEee-EWWW"

When the Sox look at the depth chart, I think they see a guy a season who is gone in a year and a quarter, meanwhile they have a ton of great lefty depth in the minors they want to make room for who should be around for the revival in Fry, Bummer, and Frare.  Avilan really doesn't have a place here next year.

[GGajewski18]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

When the Sox look at the depth chart, I think they see a guy a season who is gone in a year and a quarter, meanwhile they have a ton of great lefty depth in the minors they want to make room for who should be around for the revival in Fry, Bummer, and Frare.  Avilan really doesn't have a place here next year.

This.  I don't know how anyone doesn't get it.  Bummer, Fry, and Frare can all replicate or do better than Avilan for cheaper and obviously the Sox have more control over.

[ChiSox59]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Avilan obviously had no great offers at the non-waiver deadline.

Like I said, one of two things happened here.  Either absolutely no one claimed him with literally no one being willing to claim him for just his salary owned, and this was the best offer on the market.  Or he went all of the way through the AL and almost all of the way through the NL with literally no one being willing to claim him for just his salary owned, so we got a trash return for the first team to want him.  Realistically if this is what the market looked like today, would it be worth losing a piece in the Rule 5 to gamble that he would be worth more in 3.5 months?

If they really didn't want him in 2019, they could have non-tendered him and had an extra 40 man spot to protect someone from the rule 5.  Basically puts us in the same spot we are today. 

I don't pretend to think that I can do Rick Hahn's job better than him, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he either believes Paulino was as good as it was going to get or that he's actually more interesting than his reports and numbers indicate.  But from the outside looking in, it looks like a nothing/garbage return on a useful LH reliever that isn't paid much and still has 1.25 years of control.  Similar pitchers with less control (Zach Duke) returned more in recent weeks.  I just think it was possible to play the long game here and end up a little ahead of where they did, but ultimately, we're bordering on splitting hairs, so I will just leave it at that.  

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

If they really didn't want him in 2019, they could have non-tendered him and had an extra 40 man spot to protect someone from the rule 5.  Basically puts us in the same spot we are today. 

I don't pretend to think that I can do Rick Hahn's job better than him, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he either believes Paulino was as good as it was going to get or that he's actually more interesting than his reports and numbers indicate.  But from the outside looking in, it looks like a nothing/garbage return on a useful LH reliever that isn't paid much and still has 1.25 years of control.  Similar pitchers with less control (Zach Duke) returned more in recent weeks.  I just think it was possible to play the long game here and end up a little ahead of where they did, but ultimately, we're bordering on splitting hairs, so I will just leave it at that.  

The clues in front of me say that basically no one wanted Luis Avilan.  AT BEST he was completely unclaimed by the AL, and all of the way through 6th best record in the NL.  That is even assuming that he didn't get unclaimed in his first go around the waiver wire, and possibly the Sox picked up salary to make this deal even happen.

[bmags]

37 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

This.  I don't know how anyone doesn't get it.  Bummer, Fry, and Frare can all replicate or do better than Avilan for cheaper and obviously the Sox have more control over.

I'm not sure why you are saying "doesn't get it". I do get the thinking, I don't find it convincing.

Bummer and Frare can force their way onto the team by dominating AAA. We can find room because our bullpen is very bad now!

I hope Frare will be dominant, but he has 10 innings in AAA. I see no reason to make big league spots for those guys, we can certainly make a bunch of 40 room at the end of the season cutting more fat.

Do any of you believe the sox aren't going to sign a vet bullpen arm in the offseason?

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Avilan obviously had no great offers at the non-waiver deadline.

Like I said, one of two things happened here.  Either absolutely no one claimed him with literally no one being willing to claim him for just his salary owned, and this was the best offer on the market.  Or he went all of the way through the AL and almost all of the way through the NL with literally no one being willing to claim him for just his salary owned, so we got a trash return for the first team to want him.  Realistically if this is what the market looked like today, would it be worth losing a piece in the Rule 5 to gamble that he would be worth more in 3.5 months?

I have no doubt they weren't offered crap. I just think, unless a guy is an absolute star, or really, really on fire making no money, expecting anything interesting flipping a reliever is a longshot. They paid Soria and Avila a decent amount between the two of them. What they paid them wasn't, IMO, worth what they eventually got for them. I don't think it's any big deal neither are with the team anymore, but I think while you can give them an A for effort trading for them, ultimately it's a D unless these guys they got for them somehow actually become useful.

[Jose Abreu]

I'm not against the move, but I am a little surprised that there was apparently such little interest in Avilan. He's a quality lefty reliever, with another full year of control, and guys like that tend to at least be in some demand. 

[iWiN4PreP]

51 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I'm not against the move, but I am a little surprised that there was apparently such little interest in Avilan. He's a quality lefty reliever, with another full year of control, and guys like that tend to at least be in some demand. 

Yup -- This is the kind of move that makes me think "hmmm, did they really exhaust all options on this?" or "WTF happened here."

 

Like, was this really the best strategy? We couldn't group a few guys at the deadline for one prospect or something?

 

 

[southsider2k5]

58 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I'm not against the move, but I am a little surprised that there was apparently such little interest in Avilan. He's a quality lefty reliever, with another full year of control, and guys like that tend to at least be in some demand. 

I would have expected more as well.  But what is in front of us tells us that the majority of contending baseball teams were literally not interested in him at just the price of his salary.

[ChiSox59]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I would have expected more as well.  But what is in front of us tells us that the majority of contending baseball teams were literally not interested in him at just the price of his salary.

Its not quite that simple. Just because someone didn't claim a player doesn't mean they wouldn't be interested in acquiring said player simply at the price of his salary.  Teams that are out of the race aren't giving up assets for a reliever at this point.  So ignore them.  Teams that could use bullpen help in the AL, like the Indians for example, know the Sox aren't just going to hand him over for free.  So if you put in a claim, you know you're going to at least going to have to give up some asset to get him.

[BlackSox13]

Meh, not excited or dissapointed with this trade. The fact Avilan wasn't traded by the deadline and took until August 22 to find a new home tells me there was no market for him. Too many rebuilding teams and teams out of the pennant race.

Edited August 22, 2018 by BlackSox13

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Its not quite that simple. Just because someone didn't claim a player doesn't mean they wouldn't be interested in acquiring said player simply at the price of his salary.  Teams that are out of the race aren't giving up assets for a reliever at this point.  So ignore them.  Teams that could use bullpen help in the AL, like the Indians for example, know the Sox aren't just going to hand him over for free.  So if you put in a claim, you know you're going to at least going to have to give up some asset to get him.

At the very least, you claim a guy who you are willing to take on at his salary and you can use.  All of MLB knew he was available, so it isn't like a Bryce Harper situation where teams might not even bother.  As long as you want them, there is no downside to a claim.  If a deal doesn't work it doesn't work.  But that doesn't stop another deal.