Greg Hibbard Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Not too surprising, as the youth/speed angle has been touted much of the year. I think it’s an interesting stat. The temptation I have is to be impressed... but how much do stolen bases and triples correspond to increased run production or wins, though? The least number of triples an AL team has is 10 (compared to the Sox’ 36) - with a league average of 20. The stolen bases range from 100 all the way down to 29 with a league average of 64 (the Sox have 85). What’s interesting about the triples number is that the Sox are among the teams that have the fewest doubles in AL. Given that the Sox probably have acquired their triples from stretching otherwise doubles into three bases (if you halve their triples and add it to their doubles total, they have nearly the league average in both), and that they have 20 more stolen bases than the league average, it seems as though the speed component has provided 38 bases “above replacement” to their total of 1755. The trouble is of course that their total bases are about 50 total bases below the league average. The Sox are also fourth from last in runs scored in the AL, although much of that probably has to do with their lack of hitting in general (bottom tier in OPS). So what’s the factor? Digging deeper into team stats, we discover this team is generally bad at taking walks, and in my opinion, it’s the single biggest contributor to our overall offensive woes (and indirectly to OPS). We have a couple guys who walk at an above average clip, but most are way below average or dreadful. All of this is to say I wonder if front office and management in general severely overrates the speed component of the game compared to the walk component. Stolen bases and triples really don’t seem to be as much of a factor in run production, at least not as much as OBP and walks. What does everyone else think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 I think you also should have looked into what percentage of the Sox HR's are solo shots and how that also corresponds to league average. Of course the low walk rate hurts as does the low hit tool abilities. You have more guys on base you score more runs. It's simple . You have more guys hitting for higher averages while taking more walks you have better players and your offense and team doesn't suck. It's hard to have rallies when guys don't hit or walk consistently enough to sustain longer innings. I truly love speed but it becomes much more effective when guys who can hit for some average are able to send them around the bases instead of massive amounts of K's and weak contact stranding runners all over the place. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know what usually makes an offense bad. Speed and HR's are not as effective without men on base. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxfan49 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 What do I think? I think @Jack Parkman will be in here any minute to tell us all how Tim Anderson sucks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 33 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: I think you also should have looked into what percentage of the Sox HR's are solo shots and how that also corresponds to league average. Of course the low walk rate hurts as does the low hit tool abilities. You have more guys on base you score more runs. It's simple . You have more guys hitting for higher averages while taking more walks you have better players and your offense and team doesn't suck. It's hard to have rallies when guys don't hit or walk consistently enough to sustain longer innings. I truly love speed but it becomes much more effective when guys who can hit for some average are able to send them around the bases instead of massive amounts of K's and weak contact stranding runners all over the place. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know what usually makes an offense bad. Speed and HR's are not as effective without men on base. The Sox aren’t among the league leaders in LOB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 18 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said: The Sox aren’t among the league leaders in LOB OK ? Isn't that a given considering they don't walk and don't hit for average either ? Wasn't that what I just said ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: OK ? Isn't that a given considering they don't walk and don't hit for average either ? Wasn't that what I just said ? You said that, but also “weak contact stranding runners everywhere” which is what I was specifically responding to Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said: You said that, but also “weak contact stranding runners everywhere” which is what I was specifically responding to Sure but I never said that they get a lot of men of base because that would go against the whole lack of walks and hit tool thing. It was meant more in the context of the offense being bad and the guys they actually do get on base aren't getting home often enough to have big innings . We're on the exact same page . They have bad hitters and guys that don't walk enough and also play crap defense and many of them will be gone soon enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 41 minutes ago, soxfan49 said: What do I think? I think @Jack Parkman will be in here any minute to tell us all how Tim Anderson sucks. Yea, I don't get it. Only shortstops younger than TA with a higher fWAR this season are Lindor, Turner, and Pereza. TA's 2.0 fWAR ranks just a tick below the median value of all qualified shortstops this season. He's already an MLB average regular at shortstop but, with his age and rawness, the upside is a top 10 guy at the position within the next couple years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 (edited) And, over the last month, something like 3rd in homers. If you look at these auditioned hitters (Delmonico, Leury, Davidson, Palka) - none look like stars, but all of them are pretty good and certainly good enough to find a place on the 25. The Sox are going to have to make some moves - and hopefully not just cut some of these guys. And what they still don't have is a CF and 3B; they have a catcher who can hit, but not one who can catch. But, heck, Engel's hitting is slowly improving...a little more time... Edited August 23, 2018 by GreenSox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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