The " Tank" is dead . Let there be Light !

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, gusguyman said:

A team that was on pace for 100 losses traded away talent, and the only significant addition was a pitcher who has thrown 11IP, and started winning at a playoff worthy clip. That isn't a fluke?

Have you watched the games? Because the team I’ve watched since late July isn’t the same team I watched pre ASB.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Jose Abreu said:

I was shocked by Pollock's numbers.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=polloaj01&year=2018&t=b

I remembered him as a .900 OPS guy with good defense in center this year. He has gotten worse every month dropping his rate stats significantly since I last checked, plus you always have to be wary of home/road splits for Rockies and Diamondbacks players. I don't even know if he would be worth it 

Depends on what "it" is. If we're talking about a 2 year/$30 million deal, I think he has a shot at being worth that, and adding a decent veteran presence to a spot where we have a legit hole, and holding that spot for 1-2 years while we wait for big talent to work its way up. If we're talking 3/$60 as was floated a little while ago, then I seriously doubt he's worth that. 

[gusguyman]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Then you rely on 2020. FA class .What happens if that turns out bad ?

I think Machado and Harper make sense this year, especially because you could front load significant money if they don't sign anyone else. That would be great because the back-end of these mega-deals  are usually poisonous. Boog Powell, Marcell Ozuna, and Aaron hicks are all OF FAs in the next class if our prospects don't get to the bigs in time. Going all in for 2019 is way too premature.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I probably wouldn't be the sort who goes 3 years with Pollock for exactly that reason. If some team wants to go wild and outbid us for him, I can live with that, but he's basically a tolerable fielder out there who as of right now plays 1/2 to 2/3 of a normal season. If Engel is on the bench, or we think Leury can take some ABs, Pollack is a decent fit. 

I still think guys saying 3/$60 are wildly overshooting for him. Last 3 years 0.5 WAR, 2.2 WAR, 1.9 WAR so far. Yeah he had an MVP caliber season 4 years ago but that's long since gone. 

Yep that and the fact the Sox have done poorly with NL players transitioning to the AL . which if why I like Brantley and his WAR this year is better than any of Pollocks last 3 years. The Sox could live with Engel in CF if we get Machado and Brantley or get Donaldson and he bounces back big time and Brantley. Then you can try to upgrade CF at the trade deadline.

[Jose Abreu]

4 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

I think Machado and Harper make sense this year, especially because you could front load significant money if they don't sign anyone else. That would be great because the back-end of these mega-deals  are usually poisonous. Boog Powell, Marcell Ozuna, and Aaron hicks are all OF FAs in the next class if our prospects don't get to the bigs in time. Going all in for 2019 is way too premature.

Boog Powell is a free agent in 2024 and he's not good. Did you mean someone else? 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Yep that and the fact the Sox have done poorly with NL players transitioning to the AL . which if why I like Brantley and his WAR this year is better than any of Pollocks last 3 years. The Sox could live with Engel in CF if we get Machado and Brantley or get Donaldson and he bounces back big time and Brantley. Then you can try to upgrade CF at the trade deadline.

But...but...but....the difference between what the White Sox would probably have in a corner OF spot (Delmonico/Garcia) and Brantley seems to be way smaller than the difference between Engel and a decent starting CF. 

[gusguyman]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Boog Powell is a free agent in 2024 and he's not good. Did you mean someone else? 

Nope the board I was looking at doesn't know how to handle arbitration apparently.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

I think Machado and Harper make sense this year, especially because you could front load significant money if they don't sign anyone else. That would be great because the back-end of these mega-deals  are usually poisonous. Boog Powell, Marcell Ozuna, and Aaron hicks are all OF FAs in the next class if our prospects don't get to the bigs in time. Going all in for 2019 is way too premature.

Not all in, just a big push year. It could end up being all in if everything happens right like what happened to the 2005 Sox. If we get a Machado or Harper you think the Sox are just going to sit on their hands afterwards? Hell no  that would greatly accelerate the rebuild and every year is all in.

Remember Eloy for almost the whole season next year too.

Edited September 4, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Are arbitration contracts still not guaranteed until the start of the season? Everyone remember what happened to Viciedo - they signed him to a nonguaranteed deal, then went out and signed Cabrera, held Viciedo through Spring Training, but they were able to cut him at the end of Spring Training for something like $25k. 

I very much agree we have to do something to relieve this clog up of DHs and OFs before the big monster arrives. I don't know what it will be, but that's one more possibility.

I want to say it is 20 to 25% of the contract.  In a case like this is it worth a couple of million dollars to hold on to Avi for a team that might be .500 next year?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But...but...but....the difference between what the White Sox would probably have in a corner OF spot (Delmonico/Garcia) and Brantley seems to be way smaller than the difference between Engel and a decent starting CF. 

But you just said Pollock wasn't a decent CF or at least not worth the numbers being thrown around now. I like having a defensive OF of Engel and Brantley more then I do Pollock and Delmonicio . Not as good offensively but I like Brantley chance of still producing at his current level a lot better than Pollocks. Make the pitchers better by making the defense better. I have been wanting Engel out like everyone else but it's getting harder and harder to say that because of this little run of hitting he's been on plus with every baseball fan in America now knowing who he is because of the week or robberies he committed. I could change my thinking if he still sucks the rest of the season. Nothing written in stone now.

Edited September 4, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[chitownsportsfan]

20 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Have you watched the games? Because the team I’ve watched since late July isn’t the same team I watched pre ASB.

Both things are true: the club has played a lot better post ASB and they have had some good luck.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Both things are true: the club has played a lot better post ASB and they have had some good luck.  

I rather be lucky than good but lucky and good is even better.

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I rather be lucky than good but lucky and good is even better.

Lucky and good was the formula in 2005.  It's a good formula.  It worked for the Royals as well.  If you're good, you put yourself in a position where bad luck won't kill you and good luck might just push you over the top.  Hopefully the Sox will be there starting in 2020.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

8 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Both things are true: the club has played a lot better post ASB and they have had some good luck.  

The one thing that is not debatable is this club is playing a hell of a lot better since late July than they did before then, lucky or not. Are they playoff good? Probably not right now but if the kids continue to develop, add an Eloy and a few agents to the mix and you never know. Cubs probably thought 2015 was another development year too considering they started the season with Bryant in AAA.

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

The one thing that is not debatable is this club is playing a hell of a lot better since late July than they did before then, lucky or not. Are they playoff good? Probably not right now but if the kids continue to develop, add an Eloy and a few agents to the mix and you never know. Cubs probably thought 2015 was another development year too considering they started the season with Bryant in AAA.

The Sox have sold quite a few spring training tickets the last month.  Thing is, imo, if they were smart, they could have sold a lot more.

[gusguyman]

This team is unquestionably playing better after the break. But the pitchers and some key batters are also benefiting from huge BABIP luck, and the result post ASB is still a negative run differential. This team isn't good yet, but lucky and below-average looks fantastic to us after the hell that was the first half of the season.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

11 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Lucky and good was the formula in 2005.  It's a good formula.  It worked for the Royals as well.  If you're good, you put yourself in a position where bad luck won't kill you and good luck might just push you over the top.  Hopefully the Sox will be there starting in 2020.

In my OP to start the thread I didn't think 2019 could be a playoff year either, Now I'm having seconds thoughts on that .Imagine Rodon . Kopech Gio and Lopez all being good next year and El0y being good to great and all the BP kids having strong years. The 2 series against the Yanks and Red Sox made me rethink it all.Then if you sign a Machado or Harper and/or Donaldson/Brantley/Pollock/Marwin Gonzales (1 or 2 of them if we land one of the big boys) and they  do good. Then you actually are pushing for  a WC berth with the chance to add at the trade deadline. Granted it's a foolish dream but if you actually land Machado or Harper all bets are off.

Edited September 4, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

In my OP to start the thread I didn't think 2019 could be a playoff year either, Now I'm having seconds thoughts on that .Imagine Rodon . Kopech Gio and Lopez all being good next year and El0y being good to great and all the BP kids having strong years. The 2 series against the Yanks and Red Sox made me rethink it all.Then if you sign a Machado or Harper and/or Donaldson/Brantley/Pollock/Marwin Gonzales (1 or 2 of them if we land one of the big boys) and they  do good. Then you actually are pushing for  a WC berth with the chance to add at the trade deadline. Granted it's a foolish dream but if you actually land Machado or Harper all bets are off.

Quite frankly, Boston is far and away the best team in baseball this year and they didn’t wow me last week. There wasn’t a moment in watching that series where I’m like damn these guys are much more talented than the WS.  And yes, I know, the WS missed Sale but still. Good pitching (from the WS) will tend to do that to the opponent so whether or not that pitching is sustainable is a valid question. If it is...well, look out.

[southsider2k5]

15 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

The one thing that is not debatable is this club is playing a hell of a lot better since late July than they did before then, lucky or not. Are they playoff good? Probably not right now but if the kids continue to develop, add an Eloy and a few agents to the mix and you never know. Cubs probably thought 2015 was another development year too considering they started the season with Bryant in AAA.

No one is talking about playoffs. We are talking about. 500 first.

[chitownsportsfan]

18 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

This team is unquestionably playing better after the break. But the pitchers and some key batters are also benefiting from huge BABIP luck, and the result post ASB is still a negative run differential. This team isn't good yet, but lucky and below-average looks fantastic to us after the hell that was the first half of the season.

Overall tho the club is hitting 248/310/435 in the 2nd half, good for a OPS+ of 102 with a BABIP of .310.  The primary improvement from their 1st half line of 244/303/402 has been power, not BABIP.  They've also improved their K/BB ratio as a club, so they are putting together better ABs.

Pitching wise the club went from a brutal 1.76 K/BB ratio in the 1st half to a much healthier 2.46.  BABIP against has dropped from .297 to .270, so some luck there but some of that is no doubt the much improved defense.

Outscored 196-200 in the 2nd half, but hey, the improvement is real.  They were outscored by over 140 runs in the 1st half.

Edited September 4, 2018 by chitownsportsfan

[gusguyman]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Overall tho the club is hitting 248/310/435 in the 2nd half, good for a OPS+ of 102 with a BABIP of .310.  The primary improvement from their 1st half line of 244/303/402 has been power, not BABIP.  They've also improved their K/BB ratio as a club, so they are putting together better ABs.

Pitching wise the club went from a brutal 1.76 K/BB ratio in the 1st half to a much healthier 2.46.  BABIP against has dropped from .297 to .270, so some luck their but some of that is no doubt the much improved defense.

Outscored 196-200 in the 2nd half, but hey, the improvement is real.  They were outscored by over 140 runs in the 1st half.

I agree there has been huge improvements, I just think its from a mid-60's win team to low 70's. It seems others see a much better team than that.

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, gusguyman said:

I agree there has been huge improvements, I just think its from a mid-60's win team to low 70's. It seems others see a much better team than that.

I'm in agreement see my "the path to 81 wins is 15 WAR between ______ post upthread".  SS2K laid out a realistic (if optimistic) path to 15 from those guys as well.  I mean if Eloy comes up and is fucking hitting 300/350/560 in June and is on pace for 6 WAR that path gets a lot clearer...

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Quite frankly, Boston is far and away the best team in baseball this year and they didn’t wow me last week. There wasn’t a moment in watching that series where I’m like damn these guys are much more talented than the WS.  And yes, I know, the WS missed Sale but still. Good pitching (from the WS) will tend to do that to the opponent so whether or not that pitching is sustainable is a valid question. If it is...well, look out.

Well we also missed David Price but yea just gotta believe we can sign a big fish, Eloy is the besss with the Sox , and Moncada also making a big leap along with a few of the few secondary FA's I mentioned. Would have to be the perfect storm but it's not that impossible to imagine.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

No one is talking about playoffs. We are talking about. 500 first.

I am with many many good things happening starting with one of Machado and Harper Then things really start to get interesting. Granted I don't have much faith in that happening but ya never know.

[Jose Abreu]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Well we also missed David Price but yea just gotta believe we can sign a big fish, Eloy is the besss with the Sox , and Moncada also making a big leap along with a few of the few secondary FA's I mentioned. Would have to be the perfect storm but it's not that impossible to imagine.

This second half surge reminds me more of the 2014 Cubs than it does of the 2013 Royals. Lester was their big FA, so we'll see if we can get one too. A lot would have to go right for our 2019 to be like their 2015, but I'd also argue that we're in a better spot as an organization on this date than they were in early September of 2014.