The " Tank" is dead . Let there be Light !

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I do.  I get the $10 million-ish expected salary isn't that big of a deal right now, but two things stand out.

#1, we actually have OFs and will need yet another spot for Eloy Jimenez

#2, Even if we look at Avi as a potential tradeable asset, we shouldn't.  Even after his breakout 2017 year, nobody came after the guy on the trade market.  People either didn't believe he was really that good, or his lack of defense hurt him enough to where he had not much trade value.

If #2 is at least mostly true, what does bringing back Avi do for us?  At worst we know it crowds up the OF as we are looking to for sure add Eloy to the mix.  Once you give CF to a real CF, and LF (probably) to Eloy, that means we have zero spots left for Palka, Delmonico, and probably Leury.

I honestly don't see how Avi fits in for 2019 without making things worse.

I agree.  Although i could see a scenario of a non-tender and re-sign at a lower contract to be a part time player.

Edited September 4, 2018 by ptatc

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I do.  I get the $10 million-ish expected salary isn't that big of a deal right now, but two things stand out.

#1, we actually have OFs and will need yet another spot for Eloy Jimenez

#2, Even if we look at Avi as a potential tradeable asset, we shouldn't.  Even after his breakout 2017 year, nobody came after the guy on the trade market.  People either didn't believe he was really that good, or his lack of defense hurt him enough to where he had not much trade value.

If #2 is at least mostly true, what does bringing back Avi do for us?  At worst we know it crowds up the OF as we are looking to for sure add Eloy to the mix.  Once you give CF to a real CF, and LF (probably) to Eloy, that means we have zero spots left for Palka, Delmonico, and probably Leury.

I honestly don't see how Avi fits in for 2019 without making things worse.

When you lay it out like that he's an obvious candidate for a non tender.

[steveno89]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

When you lay it out like that he's an obvious candidate for a non tender.

Will likely depend on how he finishes out the season. A strong finish and we keep him around, a poor finish and he's at risk to be cut loose. 

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I agree.  Although i could see a scenario of a non-tender and re-sign at a lower contract to be a part time player.

Avi is a pretty awful defender.  Ideally your bench guys can play some positions at least decently.  If not their bat has to be a big carrying tool.  If we are looking at Avi as a bench player, would you rather have Palka's lefty bat coming off of the bench with all of the other RH hitting OF's on the roster?  Eloy is RH, as is Engel (who I will call the leader for at least Apr 2019 CF)  Cordell is also RH if he were to win CF.  Leury is a switch hitter.  Avi being a righty doesn't give us any more diversity on the bench to attack a tough righty, while a Palka or Delmonico does.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Avi is a pretty awful defender.  Ideally your bench guys can play some positions at least decently.  If not their bat has to be a big carrying tool.  If we are looking at Avi as a bench player, would you rather have Palka's lefty bat coming off of the bench with all of the other RH hitting OF's on the roster?  Eloy is RH, as is Engel (who I will call the leader for at least Apr 2019 CF)  Cordell is also RH if he were to win CF.  Leury is a switch hitter.  Avi being a righty doesn't give us any more diversity on the bench to attack a tough righty, while a Palka or Delmonico does.

He is a crappy defender but I think he is a better overall hitter than Delmonico and Palm a but palka provides DH power.they will not have Cordell, Engel and Leury all on the team. I think it's either Cordell or Engel. Avi could be the RH OF off the bench because of his hitting. He should get paid as a backup but another team may offer more.

[BlackSox13]

I agree Avi really is the odd man out. He's not a good outfielder, has one year left before FA, has had problems staying healthy despite his best efforts and there's no room for him as a DH. He's expendable to a rebuilding team. Shop him this winter for the best offer, if there is one, and if not then cut him loose. LF is for Eloy, CF for Engel and throw Cordell in RF with Leury as the OF super sub. 

One thing to keep in mind is regardless who's playing CF and RF they are place holders for one more season until we see younger talent begin to come up late 2019 and into the 2020 season. 

[Balta1701]

Are arbitration contracts still not guaranteed until the start of the season? Everyone remember what happened to Viciedo - they signed him to a nonguaranteed deal, then went out and signed Cabrera, held Viciedo through Spring Training, but they were able to cut him at the end of Spring Training for something like $25k. 

I very much agree we have to do something to relieve this clog up of DHs and OFs before the big monster arrives. I don't know what it will be, but that's one more possibility.

[Balta1701]

43 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Will likely depend on how he finishes out the season. A strong finish and we keep him around, a poor finish and he's at risk to be cut loose. 

Have people pointed out that was terrible in August (IIRC there was some talk by Hahn or someone a few weeks ago about his knee still hurting?) 1.048 OPS in July, .571 OPS in August.

[nickofypres]

Giolito, Lopez, and Rodon all have high FIP, xFIPS, and SIERA, whats the reasoning in thinking they're going to be better next year? Obviously, this is their first full season in the majors (other than Rodon) and they have the talent to improve and live up to their pedigree, but what numbers are we looking at that says they'll be better next year?

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, nickofypres said:

Giolito, Lopez, and Rodon all have high FIP, xFIPS, and SIERA, whats the reasoning in thinking they're going to be better next year? Obviously, this is their first full season in the majors (other than Rodon) and they have the talent to improve and live up to their pedigree, but what numbers are we looking at that says they'll be better next year?

At least for Luca$, you can draw solid trendlines where the things that go into FIP - strikeouts, walks, and heck while we're at it even velocity, he's getting better on them as the year goes on. His total season numbers are dominated by time where he wasn't the pitcher he hopefully is turning into right now

[Jose Abreu]

4 minutes ago, nickofypres said:

Giolito, Lopez, and Rodon all have high FIP, xFIPS, and SIERA, whats the reasoning in thinking they're going to be better next year? Obviously, this is their first full season in the majors (other than Rodon) and they have the talent to improve and live up to their pedigree, but what numbers are we looking at that says they'll be better next year?

It's the fact that Lopez and Giolito specifically have been pitching much better lately.

 

I don't care about Rodon's peripherals because he still doesn't have his best stuff and is still allowing weak contact and missing barrels. Those stats you referenced don't really care about quality of contact, and Rodon has been terrific at getting weak outs while not missing bats. I also don't consider FIP to be a predictive stat but that's a debate for another time. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

It's the fact that Lopez and Giolito specifically have been pitching much better lately.

 

I don't care about Rodon's peripherals because he still doesn't have his best stuff and is still allowing weak contact and missing barrels. Those stats you referenced don't really care about quality of contact, and Rodon has been terrific at getting weak outs while not missing bats. I also don't consider FIP to be a predictive stat but that's a debate for another time. 

I don't have the same Fangraphs drawn trendlines for Lopez, but his numbers in August do look genuinely different. 

First half: 6.6 SO/9, 1.73 SO/BB (Both about as bad as anyone else in the league and down there with Giolito)

August: 8.0 SO/9, 2.73 SO/BB. That's not Chris Sale, but now both of those would be in the middle of the pack for starters around the league, so it's heading in a positive direction based on August.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Are arbitration contracts still not guaranteed until the start of the season? Everyone remember what happened to Viciedo - they signed him to a nonguaranteed deal, then went out and signed Cabrera, held Viciedo through Spring Training, but they were able to cut him at the end of Spring Training for something like $25k. 

I very much agree we have to do something to relieve this clog up of DHs and OFs before the big monster arrives. I don't know what it will be, but that's one more possibility.

Sign a FA OF like  Harper Brantley or Pollock and it gets even worse for Avi, Delmonico, Engel, Leury, Cordell . But we knew it was coming and I wouldn't be at all opposed to it happening next year. I think Palka is pretty safe and Davidson can play 3rd and 1st and despite others misgivings. he's taken more walks and his OPS is pretty good. Keep the guys who walk with power. The rest will have to go.

[chitownsportsfan]

18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Have people pointed out that was terrible in August (IIRC there was some talk by Hahn or someone a few weeks ago about his knee still hurting?) 1.048 OPS in July, .571 OPS in August.

Yea...Avi Garcia is the definition of a 1-2 WAR player.  He had his one fluke year where he was able to stay health and productive and find every hole known to man, and from here he'll go back to being a guy that hits 270/320/430 and plays a mediocre RF and gets hurt for 40-60 games.

His salary and age don't align with the Sox' anymore so yea, let him go.  At worst you dropped a market value marginal starter.

[steveno89]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Sign a FA OF like  Harper Brantley or Pollock and it gets even worse for Avi, Delmonico, Engel, Leury, Cordell . But we knew it was coming and I wouldn't be at all opposed to it happening next year. I think Palka is pretty safe and Davidson can play 3rd and 1st and despite others misgivings. he's taken more walks and his OPS is pretty good. Keep the guys who walk with power. The rest will have to go.

I hope we resist the temptation to sign second tier free agents like Brantley, etc. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Sign a FA OF like  Harper Brantley or Pollock and it gets even worse for Avi, Delmonico, Engel, Leury, Cordell . But we knew it was coming and I wouldn't be at all opposed to it happening next year. I think Palka is pretty safe and Davidson can play 3rd and 1st and despite others misgivings. he's taken more walks and his OPS is pretty good. Keep the guys who walk with power. The rest will have to go.

If they sign a starting quality 3b, then Davidson is an obvious odd man out as well (unless they were willing to make a move on Abreu). 

[Balta1701]

Just now, steveno89 said:

I hope we resist the temptation to sign second tier free agents like Brantley, etc. 

I could certainly be convinced to sign a second tier CF to a 1-2 year deal even for good money given Engel's performance the last 2 years. 

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

If they sign a starting quality 3b, then Davidson is an obvious odd man out as well (unless they were willing to make a move on Abreu). 

They will tender Yolmer and he's eligible for his first real pay increase, are they really going to pay him 5 million to be a backup?  I mean, I probably would but will the Sox?  Or maybe they really do see him as the utility guy that gets 300-400 PA and is a swiss army knife defensively, covering three IF positions and possibly a corner OF as well.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

They will tender Yolmer and he's eligible for his first real pay increase, are they really going to pay him 5 million to be a backup?  I mean, I probably would but will the Sox?  Or maybe they really do see him as the utility guy that gets 300-400 PA and is a swiss army knife defensively, covering three IF positions and possibly a corner OF as well.

Is he really going to jump to $5 million next year? Coming off 1-2 WAR seasons in 2015 and 2016 Eduardo Escobar jumped to $2.1 and then $2.6 million over 2016 and 2017. He only got to $4.6 million this year, his final arbitration season. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I hope we resist the temptation to sign second tier free agents like Brantley, etc. 

There's nothing 2nd tier ( unless you mean not a superstar ) about him. He has a 2.4 WAR , 357 OBP,  .822 OPS ,OPS+ of 119 and would defensively play a better corner OF position than anyone we have. He won't turn 32 till the middle of May. He also is very familiar with AL and AL central pitching and would be the ideal bridge guy to some of our A+ and AA OF's.

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Is he really going to jump to $5 million next year? Coming off 1-2 WAR seasons in 2015 and 2016 Eduardo Escobar jumped to $2.1 and then $2.6 million over 2016 and 2017. He only got to $4.6 million this year, his final arbitration season. 

Yea hopefully comes in closer to 2 million than 5.

I"m all for signing Brantley, there's no future in Engel and Robert and Basabe and anybody else that could play CF is a long ways (2021 at best) away.  

Edited September 4, 2018 by chitownsportsfan

[steveno89]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

There's nothing 2nd tier ( unless you mean not a superstar ) about him. He has a 2.4 WAR , 357 OBP,  .822 OPS ,OPS+ of 119 and would defensively play a better corner OF position than anyone we have. He won't turn 32 till the middle of May. He also is very familiar with AL and AL central pitching and would be the ideal bridge guy to some of our A+ and AA OF's.

Brantley I'm sure will be looking for at least a 3-4 year deal, which I am certainly not going to entertain. I just see him declining after age 32, and would be unwilling to go more than two season on him. 

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Brantley I'm sure will be looking for at least a 3-4 year deal, which I am certainly not going to entertain. I just see him declining after age 32, and would be unwilling to go more than two season on him. 

One year 15 million with a 18 million club option for '20.  Who says no?

Edited September 4, 2018 by chitownsportsfan

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

One year 15 million with a 18 million club option for '20.  Who says no?

I would guess that Brantley gets a better offer than that, but after last offseason's FA market fell apart at the end who knows? But then again, we're literally already talking about how we don't really have at bats available at corner OF spots without cutting several guys loose...unless people want to tell me they think he can play CF, I don't see a corner OF being a good use of our funds.

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I would guess that Brantley gets a better offer than that, but after last offseason's FA market fell apart at the end who knows? But then again, we're literally already talking about how we don't really have at bats available at corner OF spots without cutting several guys loose...unless people want to tell me they think he can play CF, I don't see a corner OF being a good use of our funds.

Yea who knows.  Was last year a fluke or will teams open up the pocket book a bit?  It does seem, especially in the AL with how the season has gone (basically have 1/2 the league tanking) that the budget tightening last winter was smart.  Nobody was catching Houston, New York, Cle and Boston.  Maybe this year more teams will feel closer to contending and will spend.