The " Tank" is dead . Let there be Light !

[Bob Sacamano]

Let's just all be thankful they didn't hand him an extension after one good year. Thank God.

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, soxfan2014 said:

Let's just all be thankful they didn't hand him an extension after one good year. Thank God.

No kidding.  I wonder how hard they shopped him tho.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

I do.  I get the $10 million-ish expected salary isn't that big of a deal right now, but two things stand out.

#1, we actually have OFs and will need yet another spot for Eloy Jimenez

#2, Even if we look at Avi as a potential tradeable asset, we shouldn't.  Even after his breakout 2017 year, nobody came after the guy on the trade market.  People either didn't believe he was really that good, or his lack of defense hurt him enough to where he had not much trade value.

If #2 is at least mostly true, what does bringing back Avi do for us?  At worst we know it crowds up the OF as we are looking to for sure add Eloy to the mix.  Once you give CF to a real CF, and LF (probably) to Eloy, that means we have zero spots left for Palka, Delmonico, and probably Leury.

I honestly don't see how Avi fits in for 2019 without making things worse.

I think the only reason to keep Avi (and why he will ultimately be tendered a contract) is that he's better than our other RF options for next season.  Palka and Delmonico are both poor defenders, and certainly less established bats. If the Sox are trying to win next season (which I think they will until I am proven otherwise), I think they keep him around.  I don't think he'll get a huge raise due to his poor season, and I don't think the Sox want to run Palka out in RF everyday. Maybe they sign a RF instead of a CF and then Avi becomes expendable, but unless they do that, I think he's kept around. I certainly hope they don't go into the season assuming Palka and Delmonico will cover a corner OF spot the whole season. 

Dream Scenario:

LF: Delmonico (for 2 weeks; then Eloy and Delmonico to Charlotte)

CF: AJ Pollock

RF: Avi Garcia

DH: Palka / Davidson Platoon

BN: Leury, Engel, Yolmer, Palka/Davidson (not sure there is room for all these guys on the bench if a FA is signed, or Yolmer plays 3B again (hope not))

 

More Likely Scenario:

LF: Delmonico (for 2 weeks; then Eloy and Delmonico to Charlotte)

CF: Engel

RF: Avi Garcia

DH: Palka / Davidson Platoon

BN: Leury, Yolmer, Palka/Davidson

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Brantley I'm sure will be looking for at least a 3-4 year deal, which I am certainly not going to entertain. I just see him declining after age 32, and would be unwilling to go more than two season on him. 

I think you're right that he gets a 3 or 4 year deal but we are talking about winning a World Series here and possibly even being in the mix for a playoff run next year if the Sox FO decides the 2nd half turnaround accelerates things. If you offer 2 years you won't get him. If you were to put him on the Sox this year  he's easily our best  2 way player. He could be the next JD Dye ( less power better D ) Sure he might decline  but as of right now hes a very useful and very good player and is a huge upgrade over what he have.

Also we need to start signing some good free agents as soon as this year. Even if we go after Harper and Machado with the hopes of getting one of them odds are we won't get either. Then everything is dependent of landing Arenado or Rendon in 2020. What if we also strike out in the 2020 FA class? Every good player like Brantley past the age of 30 is not going to want just a 2 year contract. Even with the injury prone year and problems throwing that Josh Donaldson has had is still probably worthy of a 2 year deal while being 1.5 years older than Brantley.

Maybe Pollock is a better choice being able to play CF and a bit younger  but he also is coming from the NL and hasn't had as strong a season this year as Brantley because of injuries. I'm good with either one.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Maybe Pollock is a better choice being able to play CF and a bit younger  but he also is coming from the NL and hasn't had as strong a season this year as Brantley because of injuries. I'm good with either one.

Far more interesting to me because of the CF slot being open for us. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

25 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

One year 15 million with a 18 million club option for '20.  Who says no?

Brantley is one guy who might get a QO from the Indians . Whats that now $17 -18M ?

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Brantley is one guy who might get a QO from the Indians . Whats that now $17 -18M ?

With where the FA market went last season I could actually see guys at his level just accepting those offers if given. 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Brantley is one guy who might get a QO from the Indians . Whats that now $17 -18M ?

I think $18.1M.  

[gusguyman]

Not to be the cold shower, but our great second half is propped up by some very unsustainable stats. Since the break, we are the only team in the top 5 of both BABIP and BABIP allowed (our difference of +.038 points is 0.008 more than second place Arizona). Our starters are 1st in BABIP allowed at .252, and Rodon in particular is outperforming his FIP by a point and a half and has an obviously unsustainable .169 BABIP allowed. There is still good news, as Gio has shown huge improvement in his peripherals to match his recent results. But this team has been luckier than good, so it is pretty unreasonable to think this is a .500 team as stands next year. Probably closer to the 75 win team many hoped this year could be, if the core improves. (I suppose that means the team could be a marquee free agent from 81 wins though).

Edited September 4, 2018 by gusguyman

[Jose Abreu]

2 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Not to be the cold shower, but our great second half is propped up by some very unsustainable stats. Since the break, we are the only team in the top 5 of both BABIP and BABIP allowed (our difference of +.038 points is 0.008 more than second place Arizona). Our starters are 1st in BABIP allowed at .252, and Rodon in particular is outperforming his FIP by a point and a half and has an obviously unsustainable .169 BABIP allowed. There is still good news, as Gio has shown huge improvement in his peripherals to match his recent results. But this team has been luckier than good, so it is pretty unreasonable to think this is a .500 team as stands next year. Probably closer to the 75 win team many hoped this year could be, if the core improves. (I suppose that means the team could be a marquee free agent from 81 wins though).

There had to be some positive regression. And Rodon outperforming his FIP is sustainable since he doesn't allow hard contact. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Far more interesting to me because of the CF slot being open for us. 

I'm just wondering how good of a CF Pollock is and how long with injuries piling up will he be able to play there,  which is why I mentioned Brantley before him along with being an AL player. I like that Delmonico  takes walk, shows some pop but ultimately  the Sox are going to need a 4th OF for a few years until Robert of Basabe or Gonzales is ready. I can't count on any of those guys to actually make it. You'd think 1 of the 3 would but how good will that 1 be ? When you think 4th OF I don't think Delmoico. But I do think Basabe , Robert or Gonzales can fill that role is they don't develop into starters as we all hope.

All this thinking is going under the assumption the FO MIGHT think we can compete next year. There could be huge turnover in the roster this winter .

[Jose Abreu]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm just wondering how good of a CF Pollock is and how long with injuries piling up will he be able to play there,  which is why I mentioned Brantley before him along with being an AL player. I like that Delmonico  takes walk, shows some pop but ultimately  the Sox are going to need a 4th OF for a few years until Robert of Basabe or Gonzales is ready. I can't count on any of those guys to actually make it. You'd think 1 of the 3 would but how good will that 1 be ? When you think 4th OF I don't think Delmoico. But I do think Basabe , Robert or Gonzales can fill that role is they don't develop into starters as we all hope.

All this thinking is going under the assumption the FO MIGHT think we can compete next year. There could be huge turnover in the roster this winter .

Yeah, a Pollock contract would be tough with our farm system. Obviously no guarantees, but between Robert, Basabe, Gonzalez, and even Rutherford, I'd be very surprised if we don't produce one MLB starting caliber center fielder. I don't know if Pollock would take a 1-2 year bridge deal, but maybe if it were with $20 million AAV so that he can prove that he can stay healthy and then get more on the open market again 

[gusguyman]

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

There had to be some positive regression. And Rodon outperforming his FIP is sustainable since he doesn't allow hard contact. 

Hopefully he can, but not at the rate he is doing it now, and a sub.200 BABIP is clearly a mirage. Although the record has been great, the team has a negative run differential since the break. It's been a blast, but this team has been very lucky.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Not to be the cold shower, but our great second half is propped up by some very unsustainable stats. Since the break, we are the only team in the top 5 of both BABIP and BABIP allowed (our difference of +.038 points is 0.008 more than second place Arizona). Our starters are 1st in BABIP allowed at .252, and Rodon in particular is outperforming his FIP by a point and a half and has an obviously unsustainable .169 BABIP allowed. There is still good news, as Gio has shown huge improvement in his peripherals to match his recent results. But this team has been luckier than good, so it is pretty unreasonable to think this is a .500 team as stands next year. Probably closer to the 75 win team many hoped this year could be, if the core improves. (I suppose that means the team could be a marquee free agent from 81 wins though).

I don't think the Sox even have a core . They have Anderson, Moncada  maybe Abreu if not traded and the young SP and RP. If we sign a Harper, Machado or a Brantley, or Pollock or any 2 of them things change very very quickly .

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Yeah, a Pollock contract would be tough with our farm system. Obviously no guarantees, but between Robert, Basabe, Gonzalez, and even Rutherford, I'd be very surprised if we don't produce one MLB starting caliber center fielder. I don't know if Pollock would take a 1-2 year bridge deal, but maybe if it were with $20 million AAV so that he can prove that he can stay healthy and then get more on the open market again 

Pollock on a 3 year ~$60M type deal makes a ton of sense to me.  If Robert, Gonzalez or Basabe take over CF from him in the meantime, shift him over to a corner.  I don't see it being a huge issue. 

[chitownsportsfan]

10 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Not to be the cold shower, but our great second half is propped up by some very unsustainable stats. Since the break, we are the only team in the top 5 of both BABIP and BABIP allowed (our difference of +.038 points is 0.008 more than second place Arizona). Our starters are 1st in BABIP allowed at .252, and Rodon in particular is outperforming his FIP by a point and a half and has an obviously unsustainable .169 BABIP allowed. There is still good news, as Gio has shown huge improvement in his peripherals to match his recent results. But this team has been luckier than good, so it is pretty unreasonable to think this is a .500 team as stands next year. Probably closer to the 75 win team many hoped this year could be, if the core improves. (I suppose that means the team could be a marquee free agent from 81 wins though).

Yea agreed, Rodon especially has me concerned.  He's getting by on strand rate right now.  That's not sustainable.  That said, he's also not reporting any pain or missing time after pitching for  a few months coming off shoulder surgery, so there's room for his stuff to improve if he can build arm strength and stay healthy.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Yeah, a Pollock contract would be tough with our farm system. Obviously no guarantees, but between Robert, Basabe, Gonzalez, and even Rutherford, I'd be very surprised if we don't produce one MLB starting caliber center fielder. I don't know if Pollock would take a 1-2 year bridge deal, but maybe if it were with $20 million AAV so that he can prove that he can stay healthy and then get more on the open market again 

Well lets face it. If we want to win a WS we can't have every contract work out perfectly. There is going to be some years on some contracts that just don't work perfectly. The main thing is not to have those FA contracts be totally useless.  Good guys you sign can always be flipped if a prospect comes on like gangbusters

 

You increase the talent of position players both offensively and defensively  they are a lot easier to trade than guys like Davidson, Delmonico and Avi.

[Jose Abreu]

5 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Hopefully he can, but not at the rate he is doing it now, and a sub.200 BABIP is clearly a mirage. Although the record has been great, the team has a negative run differential since the break. It's been a blast, but this team has been very lucky.

Part of my point is that the team was very unlucky in April/May, so I see this more as regression to the mean than some sort of outlier

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

8 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Hopefully he can, but not at the rate he is doing it now, and a sub.200 BABIP is clearly a mirage. Although the record has been great, the team has a negative run differential since the break. It's been a blast, but this team has been very lucky.

+20 run differential over their last 31 games. Their play over the past month+ has been anything but a fluke. Tremendous starting pitching, very good defense, and timely hitting. If they had a quality bullpen, which they are starting to develop now, they’d have been even better.

[BlackSox13]

I still see 2019 as another development year and doubt the Sox sign any outfielders or pitchers this winter. Giolito, Kopech, Rodon and Lopez will continue to build up their innings and none of them will be ready for October baseball in 2019. And there are still hitters developing as well. I believe the Sox will make offers to Machado and/or Harper but still doubt either will sign with the Sox. Keeping Eloy down until mid-April also tells me the Sox see 2019 as a development year.

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm just wondering how good of a CF Pollock is and how long with injuries piling up will he be able to play there,  which is why I mentioned Brantley before him along with being an AL player. I like that Delmonico  takes walk, shows some pop but ultimately  the Sox are going to need a 4th OF for a few years until Robert of Basabe or Gonzales is ready. I can't count on any of those guys to actually make it. You'd think 1 of the 3 would but how good will that 1 be ? When you think 4th OF I don't think Delmoico. But I do think Basabe , Robert or Gonzales can fill that role is they don't develop into starters as we all hope.

All this thinking is going under the assumption the FO MIGHT think we can compete next year. There could be huge turnover in the roster this winter .

I probably wouldn't be the sort who goes 3 years with Pollock for exactly that reason. If some team wants to go wild and outbid us for him, I can live with that, but he's basically a tolerable fielder out there who as of right now plays 1/2 to 2/3 of a normal season. If Engel is on the bench, or we think Leury can take some ABs, Pollack is a decent fit. 

I still think guys saying 3/$60 are wildly overshooting for him. Last 3 years 0.5 WAR, 2.2 WAR, 1.9 WAR so far. Yeah he had an MVP caliber season 4 years ago but that's long since gone. 

[Jose Abreu]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I probably wouldn't be the sort who goes 3 years with Pollock for exactly that reason. If some team wants to go wild and outbid us for him, I can live with that, but he's basically a tolerable fielder out there who as of right now plays 1/2 to 2/3 of a normal season. If Engel is on the bench, or we think Leury can take some ABs, Pollack is a decent fit. 

I still think guys saying 3/$60 are wildly overshooting for him. Last 3 years 0.5 WAR, 2.2 WAR, 1.9 WAR so far. Yeah he had an MVP caliber season 4 years ago but that's long since gone. 

I was shocked by Pollock's numbers.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=polloaj01&year=2018&t=b

I remembered him as a .900 OPS guy with good defense in center this year. He has gotten worse every month dropping his rate stats significantly since I last checked, plus you always have to be wary of home/road splits for Rockies and Diamondbacks players. I don't even know if he would be worth it 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, BlackSox13 said:

I still see 2019 as another development year and doubt the Sox sign any outfielders or pitchers this winter. Giolito, Kopech, Rodon and Lopez will continue to build up their innings and none of them will be ready for October baseball in 2019. And there are still hitters developing as well. I believe the Sox will make offers to Machado and/or Harper but still doubt either will sign with the Sox. Keeping Eloy down until mid-April also tells me the Sox see 2019 as a development year.

Then you rely on 2020. FA class .What happens if that turns out bad ?

[gusguyman]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

+20 run differential over their last 31 games. Their play over the past month+ has been anything but a fluke. Tremendous starting pitching, very good defense, and timely hitting. If they had a quality bullpen, which they are starting to develop now, they’d have been even better.

A team that was on pace for 100 losses traded away talent, and the only significant addition was a pitcher who has thrown 11IP, and started winning at a playoff worthy clip. That isn't a fluke?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said:

I still see 2019 as another development year and doubt the Sox sign any outfielders or pitchers this winter. Giolito, Kopech, Rodon and Lopez will continue to build up their innings and none of them will be ready for October baseball in 2019. And there are still hitters developing as well. I believe the Sox will make offers to Machado and/or Harper but still doubt either will sign with the Sox. Keeping Eloy down until mid-April also tells me the Sox see 2019 as a development year.

I would have agreed with you if they didn’t promote Kopech this season and he didn’t follow through with immediate success (albeit small sample size). His presence as a possible legit ace as early as 2019 has changed everything.