The " Tank" is dead . Let there be Light !

[kitekrazy]

 I'd rather have different management next year too.   Great pitching still can't overcome bad defense, poor fundamentals, and lack of situational hitting.

Edited September 4, 2018 by kitekrazy

[Jack Parkman]

16 minutes ago, kitekrazy said:

 I'd rather have different management next year too.   Great pitching still can't overcome bad defense, poor fundamentals, and lack of situational hitting.

+1. Get Renteria the fuck out of the dugout. Steverson can join him. See my Sig, lol. 

Edited September 4, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

32 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I am with many many good things happening starting with one of Machado and Harper Then things really start to get interesting. Granted I don't have much faith in that happening but ya never know.

That is a bridge too far for me then.  I think we make a realistic push at .500 as is.  If we add MM or BH, maybe we push that out to 85ish wins.  Realistically, 2020 to 2021 when the big wave of position players is hitting is when we should start thinking playoffs realistically.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, gusguyman said:

A team that was on pace for 100 losses traded away talent, and the only significant addition was a pitcher who has thrown 11IP, and started winning at a playoff worthy clip. That isn't a fluke?

So you will look at the second half numbers as a fluke, but the first half was not?  That's weak.

[southsider2k5]

41 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'm in agreement see my "the path to 81 wins is 15 WAR between ______ post upthread".  SS2K laid out a realistic (if optimistic) path to 15 from those guys as well.  I mean if Eloy comes up and is fucking hitting 300/350/560 in June and is on pace for 6 WAR that path gets a lot clearer...

I'd call it a first standard deviation.  Probably not the most likely outcome, but a realistic chance for sure.

[gusguyman]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

So you will look at the second half numbers as a fluke, but the first half was not?  That's weak.

I've provided many stats that all point towards the second half results being tremendously lucky. If you would like to argue that the first half was even more influenced by (bad) luck, I 'd love to hear it and will adjust my expectations of the team accordingly.

[BlackSox13]

59 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Then you rely on 2020. FA class .What happens if that turns out bad ?

Not relying on free agency at all. I think the Sox believe two of Robert, Basabe, Gonzalez, Rutherford, Adolfo will become the future CF and RF so the Sox allow them to continue to develop. I do believe they will make an offer to Harper but if he signs elsewhere I think the Sox stick with what they have for one more season and not sign any second tier players under Harper. Like I said, if the Sox see 2019 as a contending season they would have called up Eloy to start getting acclimated now instead of waiting until mid-April 2019.

58 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I would have agreed with you if they didn’t promote Kopech this season and he didn’t follow through with immediate success (albeit small sample size). His presence as a possible legit ace as early as 2019 has changed everything.

It hasn't changed a thing. They promoted Kopech because he wasn't going to build up enough innings in the minors without the promotion. 

Currently Rodon is at 99.2IP, Lopez 162.2IP, Giolito 151IP, Kopech 137.1IP ( includes minors and majors). None of them will be stretched out enough for October baseball in 2019. I think the Sox will surprise and be better than expected but won't be a playoff team. 

Then there's the very young bullpen they will have next year. Those pitchers will need time to develop as well. 

2019 is too soon to expect them to contend. Rebuilding teams don't acquire this much talent to turn around and sign free agent players. The Sox need one more season to see what they truly have in the major and minor league levels. We'll have a much better idea by this time next year.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, gusguyman said:

I've provided many stats that all point towards the second half results being tremendously lucky. If you would like to argue that the first half was even more influenced by (bad) luck, I 'd love to hear it and will adjust my expectations of the team accordingly.

I mean all you have to do is look at individual performances to know that the first half was pretty much a worst case scenario.  You had major injuries to centerpiece players, combined with major flops by key players.  For example, do you really believe that Engel is a .160 hitter?  Do you believe that Giolito is a 7.00 FIP guy, and a 1:1 BB/KK guy?  Do you think Abreu is his midseason slump?  Do you think Moncada is his midseason slump?  I would call those flukes as well.

[gusguyman]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I mean all you have to do is look at individual performances to know that the first half was pretty much a worst case scenario.  You had major injuries to centerpiece players, combined with major flops by key players.  For example, do you really believe that Engel is a .160 hitter?  Do you believe that Giolito is a 7.00 FIP guy, and a 1:1 BB/KK guy?  Do you think Abreu is his midseason slump?  Do you think Moncada is his midseason slump?  I would call those flukes as well.

We may be talking about two different types of luck here. Was it "unlucky" that almost all of their players played near their floors first half? Yes, but very few of them were actually playing well but getting unlucky. It's not unlucky that Gio put a 7.00 FIP, he was just terrible, and his stats were in line with his peripherals. The only unlucky BABIP players of the first half were Jose and Nicky D. Moncada actually had a .345 BABIP, which might be sustainable since he hits the ball really hard but its high. ReyLo also outperformed his peripherals by a ton Overall we won about as many games as our run differential would predict. Across the team as a whole, I don't see anything that points to the first half being notably unlucky.

[southsider2k5]

20 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

We may be talking about two different types of luck here. Was it "unlucky" that almost all of their players played near their floors first half? Yes, but very few of them were actually playing well but getting unlucky. It's not unlucky that Gio put a 7.00 FIP, he was just terrible, and his stats were in line with his peripherals. The only unlucky BABIP players of the first half were Jose and Nicky D. Moncada actually had a .345 BABIP, which might be sustainable since he hits the ball really hard but its high. ReyLo also outperformed his peripherals by a ton Overall we won about as many games as our run differential would predict. Across the team as a whole, I don't see anything that points to the first half being notably unlucky.

Your definition of unlucky is too narrow if you are only basing it on a couple of stats.

For example if you are leading mlb in Ks on called strike 3s out of the strike zone, I would call that unlucky. 

[Balta1701]

42 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I mean all you have to do is look at individual performances to know that the first half was pretty much a worst case scenario.  You had major injuries to centerpiece players, combined with major flops by key players.  For example, do you really believe that Engel is a .160 hitter?  Do you believe that Giolito is a 7.00 FIP guy, and a 1:1 BB/KK guy?  Do you think Abreu is his midseason slump?  Do you think Moncada is his midseason slump?  I would call those flukes as well.

They had a lot of injuries in the minors yes but they were still somewhat above average in terms of big league health. That number of injuries is what a team should expect that they need to overcome - it's only by comparison with the unbelievable health they had in 2015 and 2016 that this team looked like it had a lot of injuries. 

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, BlackSox13 said:

I still see 2019 as another development year and doubt the Sox sign any outfielders or pitchers this winter. Giolito, Kopech, Rodon and Lopez will continue to build up their innings and none of them will be ready for October baseball in 2019. And there are still hitters developing as well. I believe the Sox will make offers to Machado and/or Harper but still doubt either will sign with the Sox. Keeping Eloy down until mid-April also tells me the Sox see 2019 as a development year.

It’s literally like 10 games. The Eloy situation has nothing to do with the Sox FO thoughts competing next season. It may well still be a development and sub .500 season though. 

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

They had a lot of injuries in the minors yes but they were still somewhat above average in terms of big league health. That number of injuries is what a team should expect that they need to overcome - it's only by comparison with the unbelievable health they had in 2015 and 2016 that this team looked like it had a lot of injuries. 

More accurately 2000 to 2015.

[gusguyman]

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Your definition of unlucky is too narrow if you are only basing it on a couple of stats.

For example if you are leading mlb in Ks on called strike 3s out of the strike zone, I would call that unlucky. 

BABIP is widely accepted as one of the best and most accessible ways of measuring how much luck is influencing stats, and therefore how much regression should be expected. As I am commenting on a forum, not writing for fangraphs, I don't understand how you can dismiss my argument without countering it with your own stats solely on the basis of it not being complete enough. I'd rather you be right here, it bodes better for next year, but the ball is in your court if you want to prove it.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, gusguyman said:

BABIP is widely accepted as one of the best and most accessible ways of measuring how much luck is influencing stats, and therefore how much regression should be expected. As I am commenting on a forum, not writing for fangraphs, I don't understand how you can dismiss my argument without countering it with your own stats solely on the basis of it not being complete enough. I'd rather you be right here, it bodes better for next year, but the ball is in your court if you want to prove it.

Again your definition of luck is too narrow if it is only BABIP related.  There is more to baseball than how hard a ball is hit, as I cited. I can't help your narrow view dismissing everything else I talked about. 

[footlongcomiskeydog]

1 hour ago, BlackSox13 said:

Not relying on free agency at all. I think the Sox believe two of Robert, Basabe, Gonzalez, Rutherford, Adolfo will become the future CF and RF so the Sox allow them to continue to develop. I do believe they will make an offer to Harper but if he signs elsewhere I think the Sox stick with what they have for one more season and not sign any second tier players under Harper. Like I said, if the Sox see 2019 as a contending season they would have called up Eloy to start getting acclimated now instead of waiting until mid-April 2019.

It hasn't changed a thing. They promoted Kopech because he wasn't going to build up enough innings in the minors without the promotion. 

Currently Rodon is at 99.2IP, Lopez 162.2IP, Giolito 151IP, Kopech 137.1IP ( includes minors and majors). None of them will be stretched out enough for October baseball in 2019. I think the Sox will surprise and be better than expected but won't be a playoff team. 

Then there's the very young bullpen they will have next year. Those pitchers will need time to develop as well. 

2019 is too soon to expect them to contend. Rebuilding teams don't acquire this much talent to turn around and sign free agent players. The Sox need one more season to see what they truly have in the major and minor league levels. We'll have a much better idea by this time next year.

The Sox are absolutely delusional if they think they can pull off successful rebuild without signing any impact free agents. This team is gonna have a dirt cheap payroll very soon. I don't see the whole point of tearing everything down if they aren't willing to spend big to supplement the young core pieces.

[BlackSox13]

11 minutes ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

The Sox are absolutely delusional if they think they can pull off successful rebuild without signing any impact free agents. This team is gonna have a dirt cheap payroll very soon. I don't see the whole point of tearing everything down if they aren't willing to spend big to supplement the young core pieces.

And they need to let the players continue to develop to see who the core players are. That's why I expect 2019 to be another development year. I'm not saying the Sox will not sign players in free agency, just not expecting the Sox to sign second tier ( below Harper) free agent outfielders this winter. I think at most we see the Sox look to sign a veteran starting pitcher on a one year deal to replace Shields to buy time on Cease who we could see next August/September.

Edit to add:

I do expect the Sox to make offers to Machado and or Harper but I still doubt either will sign with the Sox.

Edited September 5, 2018 by BlackSox13

[gusguyman]

26 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Again your definition of luck is too narrow if it is only BABIP related.  There is more to baseball than how hard a ball is hit, as I cited. I can't help your narrow view dismissing everything else I talked about. 

Always willing to learn about baseball, so what else should I look at then? Fangraphs says Hr/FB% can measure luck too. Well the WS were middle of the pack in that for the 1st half, which could be a little unlucky considering the stadium. Looking at the players though, only Narvaez and Abreu put up low rates, and Davidson and Palka both had a HR/FB% above 20, which is pretty lucky production from some key power hitters. Our pitchers ERA was right inline with their FIP/xFIP, and they actually posted a very low HR/FB% (9.3). Our runs scored is right in line with our team wOBA and OPS rankings. All of these indicate that the team largely played at their true talent level in the first half. We have young players, hopefully that talent level has increased over the span of the season. But all of these stats indicate we are playing and winning games at a rate far above our true talent level right now.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Always willing to learn about baseball, so what else should I look at then? Fangraphs says Hr/FB% can measure luck too. Well the WS were middle of the pack in that for the 1st half, which could be a little unlucky considering the stadium. Looking at the players though, only Narvaez and Abreu put up low rates, and Davidson and Palka both had a HR/FB% above 20, which is pretty lucky production from some key power hitters. Our pitchers ERA was right inline with their FIP/xFIP, and they actually posted a very low HR/FB% (9.3). Our runs scored is right in line with our team wOBA and OPS rankings. All of these indicate that the team largely played at their true talent level in the first half. We have young players, hopefully that talent level has increased over the span of the season. But all of these stats indicate we are playing and winning games at a rate far above our true talent level right now.

The games are a good place to start.

[gusguyman]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The games are a good place to start.

So your counterargument is the eye test and narratives? "That's weak." As someone who puts a lot of faith in sabermetrics, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

That is a bridge too far for me then.  I think we make a realistic push at .500 as is.  If we add MM or BH, maybe we push that out to 85ish wins.  Realistically, 2020 to 2021 when the big wave of position players is hitting is when we should start thinking playoffs realistically.

Dream big my brother . No sense limiting the dream,

If you read the rest of the last 3 pages of the thread I'm sure you have seen why I think it's possible.

The as short as possible scenario is that :

1. Sign Machado or Harper

2. Eloy is close to as good as he was in the minors and Moncada makes a big leap forward.

3. Sign 2 of the following depending on which one of Harper or Machado we add. Which means they have to be signed fairly early.

 Michael Brantley, Aj Pollock, Josh Donaldson/ Moustaskas , Marwin Gonzales and both have to have good years.

4, Rodon, Kopech, Giolito, and Lopez are all as reliable as we hope they will become.

5. Most of the young bullpen arms have good seasons.

6. Tim Anderson continues to improve, Abreu is Abreu.

7. Despite the badness that has been Adam Engel he is a 1 WAR player . If he can keep up his recent magic act and become a 1.5-2.0 WAR player it's gravy.

8. Good health

Sox have the money . Those better at figuring payroll and potential WAR for everything I've said ( no matter how unlikely it is) can try  figure out if what I think is possible is possible by adding up projected WAR by assignment numbers to everything I just wrote But in my head it means a playoff team. Even a very good playoff team .

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, BlackSox13 said:

Not relying on free agency at all. I think the Sox believe two of Robert, Basabe, Gonzalez, Rutherford, Adolfo will become the future CF and RF so the Sox allow them to continue to develop. I do believe they will make an offer to Harper but if he signs elsewhere I think the Sox stick with what they have for one more season and not sign any second tier players under Harper. Like I said, if the Sox see 2019 as a contending season they would have called up Eloy to start getting acclimated now instead of waiting until mid-April 2019.

It hasn't changed a thing. They promoted Kopech because he wasn't going to build up enough innings in the minors without the promotion. 

Currently Rodon is at 99.2IP, Lopez 162.2IP, Giolito 151IP, Kopech 137.1IP ( includes minors and majors). None of them will be stretched out enough for October baseball in 2019. I think the Sox will surprise and be better than expected but won't be a playoff team. 

Then there's the very young bullpen they will have next year. Those pitchers will need time to develop as well. 

2019 is too soon to expect them to contend. Rebuilding teams don't acquire this much talent to turn around and sign free agent players. The Sox need one more season to see what they truly have in the major and minor league levels. We'll have a much better idea by this time next year.

If you believe the Sox go after Harper  why would he sign with us besides the money ? Do you think he wants to wait around for Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo etc to come up in 2 more years without winning ? No, you sign him and things accelerate a lot more quickly . The only way to get one of the big boys is to offer a lot of money and show them how we plan to win as quickly as possible . If you sign Harper early. He can even act as a recruiter to other guys.

After this year most if not all of the SP should be good for a full season with occasional phantom injuries and  even a 5th starter like eww Shields. If Cease is killing it again in the minors and the Sox look like they can make the playoffs you start limiting his innings around June/July to keep him fresher perhaps as an October starter but maybe more as a reliever.

I know its all highly unlikely  but it all hinges on signing one of the top guns. then the dominoes start to fall.

[southsider2k5]

37 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

So your counterargument is the eye test and narratives? "That's weak." As someone who puts a lot of faith in sabermetrics, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

If you watched the 1st half of the season and saw a 120 loss team then sabermetrics have failed you because you missed out on the talent that was there which has made itself known over the last couple of months. Again if you watched these guys and believed they were failures because the numbers told you that they deserved to be failures, the numbers have proved you wrong.

[southsider2k5]

23 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Dream big my brother . No sense limiting the dream,

If you read the rest of the last 3 pages of the thread I'm sure you have seen why I think it's possible.

The as short as possible scenario is that :

1. Sign Machado or Harper

2. Eloy is close to as good as he was in the minors and Moncada makes a big leap forward.

3. Sign 2 of the following depending on which one of Harper or Machado we add. Which means they have to be signed fairly early.

 Michael Brantley, Aj Pollock, Josh Donaldson/ Moustaskas , Marwin Gonzales and both have to have good years.

4, Rodon, Kopech, Giolito, and Lopez are all as reliable as we hope they will become.

5. Most of the young bullpen arms have good seasons.

6. Tim Anderson continues to improve, Abreu is Abreu.

7. Despite the badness that has been Adam Engel he is a 1 WAR player . If he can keep up his recent magic act and become a 1.5-2.0 WAR player it's gravy.

8. Good health

Sox have the money . Those better at figuring payroll and potential WAR for everything I've said ( no matter how unlikely it is) can try  figure out if what I think is possible is possible by adding up projected WAR by assignment numbers to everything I just wrote But in my head it means a playoff team. Even a very good playoff team .

I do believe we are a year early.  I don't see the point of a deal that isn't either for a long term superstar or a spacefiller in the 18/19 off season. If they aren't, you should let the group we have in the system show you what your next moves should be. 

I don't want to see a 50 million or 100 million dollar type of deal this year. If you can get MM or BH do it.

If not, sign some space holders to make the 25 man work (maybe a 5th starter, pen arm, or position player filler if needed).

Keep scouring the waiver wire and moving international cap space for interesting young kids. We did our best work last year with guys like Palka and Ruiz, plus ones like Burr and Frare. 

Past that play 2019 and let the players in the organization tell you who is worth keeping and dumping to dictate your next big moves.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

48 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

So your counterargument is the eye test and narratives? "That's weak." As someone who puts a lot of faith in sabermetrics, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

It's good to have another knowledgeable guy on board here and I hope you continue posting often. I'm an old school guy admittedly and respect the hell out of sabremetrics with the caveat that only the people that look at just about every sabremetric stats are truly worthy of using them. You might be that guy. I don't know. Very often on message boards, and I have been here on Soxtalk for 14 years, I rarely ever  see them used them correctly and often in isolation from other sabremetric stats.

For example. I've seen the FIP/xFIP and other stats used to support arguments but some believe things like weak contact or barrel rate also is a useful indicator . It's hard to explain because it just take a ton of knowledge and I don't have the time, knowledge or mathematics abilities to use it myself. That's why teams use a whole staff of sabre guys. Welcome and stick around for the good times ahead.