southsider2k5 Posted August 29, 2018 Author Share Posted August 29, 2018 31 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: I don't think he stinks per se, I think his on base skills are dreadful. He's useful in other ways, his power/speed combo is awesome, he plays good defense. I just think his OBP is so bad that he should be a 130 game super sub rather than an everyday player. For the time being, he's fine as a 8-9 hitter on a contending team. He's Alexei Ramirez with a worse OBP. Ramirez's OBP was on the "Mendoza line of OBP" that I created of .300. If .200 is the Mendoza line for BA, we need to find some punch and judy hitter with a .300 career OBP and make it his line. If they could teach him to play 3B and OF then he'd fill the super sub role perfectly. Tim Anderson is sitting at a 2.3 fWAR SS today. That is #13 amongst ALL SS's in MLB today. His defensive rating at Fangraphs is good for #11 overall. Hopefully by "super sub" you mean he is a middle of the pack starting SS today, because that is where he is. And that is even if you were to look at what is he is doing this year as his peak. If his bat improves and his defense continues to improve, you will be talking about a top 5 SS in all of baseball. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iWiN4PreP Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 I'm completely with Jack here -- I'd love to have a SS that has an OBP north of .300... When you are below .300 OBP you are detrimental to the team... even with his power/speed combo and average defense. Don't get me wrong -- Anderson could improve, but right now he is a fringe starter. He'd be an awesome super sub to have, but we should strive better for our line up. If we strive for better and don't get it -- OK, fine, #9 hitter on our good teams could work out. I just don't get why so many people here are so enamored with him when he continually puts up OBP's lower than .290. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said: I'm completely with Jack here -- I'd love to have a SS that has an OBP north of .300... When you are below .300 OBP you are detrimental to the team... even with his power/speed combo and average defense. Don't get me wrong -- Anderson could improve, but right now he is a fringe starter. He'd be an awesome super sub to have, but we should strive better for our line up. If we strive for better and don't get it -- OK, fine, #9 hitter on our good teams could work out. I just don't get why so many people here are so enamored with him when he continually puts up OBP's lower than .290. There aren't many SS that fit your description. It's completely conceivable that the Sox actually have 2 or 3 of the best 20 SS in the game. Anderson, Rondon, and Yolmer (admittedly a bit of a stretch there). Rondon would be an upgrade at SS for at least 1/3 of the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 29, 2018 Author Share Posted August 29, 2018 13 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said: I'm completely with Jack here -- I'd love to have a SS that has an OBP north of .300... When you are below .300 OBP you are detrimental to the team... even with his power/speed combo and average defense. Don't get me wrong -- Anderson could improve, but right now he is a fringe starter. He'd be an awesome super sub to have, but we should strive better for our line up. If we strive for better and don't get it -- OK, fine, #9 hitter on our good teams could work out. I just don't get why so many people here are so enamored with him when he continually puts up OBP's lower than .290. I don't get why OBP is the only way to evaluate a SS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 4 hours ago, Timmy U said: Giolito’s one of my favorites, personality-wise, so I hope this improvement is real. My concern is he may not be athletic enough to remember/repeat his delivery next year. I wonder if his his below average spin rate means the 2 seamer is better than 4 seamer long term? Both will drop more than the same pitch from most other pitchers. It's all about controlling them enough to get some called strikes so the hitter will chase the others later. All of his pitches move a lot. He just needs to control some. I would think the 4 seam will not move as much and may be better for the called strike pitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: I don't get why OBP is the only way to evaluate a SS. Because it's the only stat that fits the "fringe starter " narrative. I don't know about you but I'm sure as hell happy with the fringe starter the Sox had at SS in 2005 that put up a stout .301 OBP and less speed than Timmy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iWiN4PreP Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 1 minute ago, BlackSox13 said: Because it's the only stat that fits the "fringe starter " narrative. I don't know about you but I'm sure as hell happy with the fringe starter the Sox had at SS in 2005 that put up a stout .301 OBP and less speed than Timmy. People here love to talk about Uribe as if that's the case that disproves the point. The point still stands... an OBP south of .300 is terrible. It means you are making way too many outs and not getting on base enough. Sure, Timmy has power and speed and that's nice, but the unknown is how many runs have we lost because he kills rallies/can't get on base at a higher clip to let the line up flow more naturally? All I'm saying is a lot of people here are ready to go to war with Timmy as our SS for the next 5+ years. Why not strive for better? I'll concede that there aren't many SS's out there that can produce as much and have a higher OBP, but I'd like to see better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: I don't get why OBP is the only way to evaluate a SS. Maybe other than catcher, it's the one position where OBP doesn't really matter as much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 33 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said: I'm completely with Jack here -- I'd love to have a SS that has an OBP north of .300... When you are below .300 OBP you are detrimental to the team... even with his power/speed combo and average defense. Don't get me wrong -- Anderson could improve, but right now he is a fringe starter. He'd be an awesome super sub to have, but we should strive better for our line up. If we strive for better and don't get it -- OK, fine, #9 hitter on our good teams could work out. I just don't get why so many people here are so enamored with him when he continually puts up OBP's lower than .290. FWAR for starting SS on contending teams this year: Indians - 6.9, Dodgers - 4.2 (team number), Red Sox - 4.1, Yankees - 3.9, Rockies - 3.6, Mariners - 3.3, A's - 3.0, Cardinals - 2.2, Astros - 2.0, Diamondbacks - 2.0, Cubs - 1.6, Braves - 1.5, Phillies - 0.0, Brewers - negative 2.0 (team number). *Average value = 2.6 Anderson's 2.3 value is already near the average value for starting shortstops of all contending teams. He's definitely not a fringe starter. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: FWAR for starting SS on contending teams this year: Indians - 6.9, Dodgers - 4.2 (team number), Red Sox - 4.1, Yankees - 3.9, Rockies - 3.6, Mariners - 3.3, A's - 3.0, Cardinals - 2.2, Astros - 2.0, Diamondbacks - 2.0, Cubs - 1.6, Braves - 1.5, Phillies - 0.0, Brewers - negative 2.0 (team number). *Average value = 2.6 Anderson's 2.3 value is already near the average value for starting shortstops of all contending teams. He's definitely not a fringe starter. This reminds me of the people who always demand a catcher who's good at framing, good at throwing runners out, good at handling a staff, and good at offense. They act as if we should easily find this player and it's our scouting department's fault for not coming up with him. Yet, there are like, 1-2 catchers who fit all those requirements in all of baseball. Anderson is the least of our problems. You can pencil him in as the #9 hitter on a good team at shortstop and call it a win, especially with what he's getting paid. Edited August 29, 2018 by Jose Abreu 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 29, 2018 Author Share Posted August 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said: Maybe other than catcher, it's the one position where OBP doesn't really matter as much To me the most important thing a SS does is field. They set the defensive tone on the infield much like the centerfielder does in the OF. Anderson has had a great last couple of months at SS after getting off to a slow start. He is also giving us a great baserunning addition as well, ranking 6th of all SS's. His RC+ is 91 as of today, so while below average, it is still not awful. That even ranks 16th amongst all SS's which again, is right smack in the middle. As of today if you are looking at the whole package, he is quite literally the definition of a middle of the pack SS, with the time to become a top 10 guy pretty easily. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorStSox Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 One of the biggest problems with being hyperfocused on WAR is that teams aren't built in a vacuum. If my 2nd baseman is an OBP machine, I'm more than a happy with a slick fielding SS with good speed and power. There's too much focus on individual players and not enough on how they fit with the team. This isn't fantasy baseball. Not every player has to be prototypical. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorStSox Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 I also don't think Anderson is close to being maxed out. He's incredibly gifted physically. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 12 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said: One of the biggest problems with being hyperfocused on WAR is that teams aren't built in a vacuum. If my 2nd baseman is an OBP machine, I'm more than a happy with a slick fielding SS with good speed and power. There's too much focus on individual players and not enough on how they fit with the team. This isn't fantasy baseball. Not every player has to be prototypical. Well I would just counter that with the fact that he is so electric on the basepaths you just want him on more to utilize it. I am happy he's added this power (I always thought he connected enough to be a 20 HR guy), but his base running would allow so much more value if he got on base more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorStSox Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, bmags said: Well I would just counter that with the fact that he is so electric on the basepaths you just want him on more to utilize it. I am happy he's added this power (I always thought he connected enough to be a 20 HR guy), but his base running would allow so much more value if he got on base more. Sure. I'd love to see him hit 350 with 35 homers too. Unfortunately this isn't a video game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said: Sure. I'd love to see him hit 350 with 35 homers too. Unfortunately this isn't a video game. Yeah asking for incremental improvement for one aspect of his game is totally unreasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 2 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said: People here love to talk about Uribe as if that's the case that disproves the point. The point still stands... an OBP south of .300 is terrible. It means you are making way too many outs and not getting on base enough. Sure, Timmy has power and speed and that's nice, but the unknown is how many runs have we lost because he kills rallies/can't get on base at a higher clip to let the line up flow more naturally? All I'm saying is a lot of people here are ready to go to war with Timmy as our SS for the next 5+ years. Why not strive for better? I'll concede that there aren't many SS's out there that can produce as much and have a higher OBP, but I'd like to see better. You're completely ignoring that his overall game is trending upwards and the stats support this. This is why many of us are fine with Timmy as the SS for the foreseeable future. Since you're not happy with Timmy tell who you think the Sox future SS should be. Drop some prospect names or free agents that will fit the Sox contention window that begins in a few years. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 6 hours ago, southsider2k5 said: I don't get why OBP is the only way to evaluate a SS. OBP is the heart of offense. The goal, as a hitter is, you know, not to make an out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 30, 2018 Author Share Posted August 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: OBP is the heart of offense. The goal, as a hitter is, you know, not to make an out. Scoring runs is the heart of offense, it is quite literally the point of baseball. It's why we lead with runs, and not walks or hits, when we say what is going on in a game. Anderson creates runs and he is whiz a preventing them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: OBP is the heart of offense. The goal, as a hitter is, you know, not to make an out. Disagree. The goal of offense is to produce runs. Not making outs is a big factor, but sometimes so is making the right outs. What Tim does with XBH and SBs helps to create runs in ways other guys can't. A higher OBP would be better, yes, but Tim has already more than doubled his walk total from last year. Why would you believe he can't continue to improve? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Scoring runs is the heart of offense, it is quite literally the point of baseball. It's why we lead with runs, and not walks or hits, when we say what is going on in a game. Anderson creates runs and he is whiz a preventing them. No Shit Sherlock. There is a stronger correlation with run scoring for OPS and OBP than any other stat. Typically, the teams that have the highest OPS/OBP score the most runs. Teams that get on base and get the most XBH, score the most runs. All of the other stats don't correlate as well as OPS/OBP. Edited August 30, 2018 by Jack Parkman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: No shit Sherlock. OBP and scoring runs are highly correlated. Typically, the teams that have the highest OBP score the most runs. Not as strong as a correlation as there is to OPS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: OBP is the heart of offense. The goal, as a hitter is, you know, not to make an out. No, the goal of a hitter to help the team score runs. Getting on base and making less outs is a big part of that, but so is hitting for power and using plus speed to get yourself into scoring position. Also, saving a run is just as good as creating a run. Evaluating a SS based strictly on their OBP is an incredibly flawed way to look at things. His lack of patience may prevent him from ever being a star, but he is most definitely a valuable player already with plenty of room for growth. He is the lack thing on this roster we should be worried about at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 (edited) 12 minutes ago, turnin' two said: Not as strong as a correlation as there is to OPS. OPS is the simple math of OBP plus slugging %. Yes, the combination of XBH and OBP typically score more runs. OPS and OBP have the strongest correlation with run scoring. OBP is part of OPS, so I don't know what you're looking for. What's Anderson's OPS? .710? That still isn't good. EDIT: Anderson's OPS is .709. Not good. Edited August 30, 2018 by Jack Parkman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 30, 2018 Author Share Posted August 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: No Shit Sherlock. There is a stronger correlation with run scoring for OPS and OBP than any other stat. Typically, the teams that have the highest OPS/OBP score the most runs. Teams that get on base and get the most XBH, score the most runs. All of the other stats don't correlate as well as OPS/OBP. His actual RC+ which I quoted earlier is right in the middle of the pack today for all MLB SS's. That stat's only purpose is the attempt to quantify what a players complete offensive package contributes versus other ML players. This stat is the most complete look at offense in terms of runs generated. The fun part? Anderson's OPS also ranks 16th among all MLB SSs, again right smack in the middle of the pack. Quite literally if you look at any other stat than OBP, Tim Anderson is in the middle of the pack, or better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.