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Giolito is saving his season


southsider2k5

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1 minute ago, Jose Abreu said:

Why are people acting like a .291 OBP and .709 OPS are a .250 OBP and .650 OPS? Average offensive production + plus defensive production + plus baserunning value = very good player, especially at shortstop. It's really not that hard to understand. 

Because both a .291 OBP and A .709 OPS still suck, even if they're not historically bad. 

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2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Why are people acting like a .291 OBP and .709 OPS are a .250 OBP and .650 OPS? Average offensive production + plus defensive production + plus baserunning value = very good player, especially at shortstop. It's really not that hard to understand. 

It isn't people.  Seems to be one guy.

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27 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

OPS is the simple math of OBP plus slugging %. Yes, the combination of XBH and OBP typically score more runs. 

OPS and OBP have the strongest correlation with run scoring. OBP is part of OPS, so I don't know what you're looking for. What's Anderson's OPS? .710? That still isn't good. 

EDIT: Anderson's OPS is .709. Not good. 

Yeah.  I know that.  You are the one who said OBP is the center of offense or whatever nonsense.  I am just looking for a logical point, relative to others at the position that add value in the ways that Anderson does.  He isn't Lindor, but to treat him like a cast off or a super sub is pretty ridiculous.  He is 25 years old and has been showing improvement in pretty much every way the Sox could have hoped.  

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1 minute ago, turnin' two said:

Yeah.  I know that.  You are the one who said OBP is the center of offense or whatever nonsense.  I am just looking for a logical point, relative to others at the position that add value in the ways that Anderson does.  He isn't Lindor, but to treat him like a cast off or a super sub is pretty ridiculous.  He is 25 years old and has been showing improvement in pretty much every way the Sox could have hoped.  

There are A LOT of really good young SS in the bigs right now. Anderson is nowhere near one of them. 

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10 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said:

So is Giolito doing better the last few weeks?

Yes. I think we need to split this thread into the Anderson OBP  Thread, and the Giolito thread. Surprised it hasn't been done yet. I'm going to create a new thread. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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On 8/28/2018 at 5:58 PM, Jack Parkman said:

I'm just going to sit back and watch you guys discuss this. I'm saying nothing in response to all of the shit that I got for saying I still thought he could turn it around. 

Am I remembering incorrectly, or weren't you the cat that said he could never be good because his velocity wasn't high enough?

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18 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Am I remembering incorrectly, or weren't you the cat that said he could never be good because his velocity wasn't high enough?

No, I was talking about Dunning, and that was when the reports were that he was sitting at 90-91. We now know that he was having elbow issues, which explains a lot. It's really hard to be successful as a RHP at that velo these days. I've seen reports that when healthy, Dunning sits in the 93-94 range and tops out at 96 which is fine. 

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8 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

Why are people acting like a .291 OBP and .709 OPS are a .250 OBP and .650 OPS? Average offensive production + plus defensive production + plus baserunning value = very good player, especially at shortstop. It's really not that hard to understand. 

Especially since if you actually take the time and do peer comparisons, the narrative in question here has been definitively proven false, repeatedly.

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9 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

That .709 OPS is 16th amongst SS’s, so pretty much average.  Add in plus base running and above average defense and he can be a very valuable piece.  And let’s not forget he’s 25 years old and came into this league incredibly raw.  He should get better.

Isn't he also still on the part of the WAR curve where, on average, you expect better results from the player the following year?

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39 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Isn't he also still on the part of the WAR curve where, on average, you expect better results from the player the following year?

Nope. If you actually look at aging curves, on average, a hitter is at their peak when they're first called up from the minors, and they get worse from there. Exceptions exist for players that struggle to figure it out, and do eventually, but they usually never exceed that first breakout season. Hitters, once they get to the Majors, generally don't get better. They get worse. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/

Edited by Jack Parkman
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9 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Because both a .291 OBP and A .709 OPS still suck, even if they're not historically bad. 

Not every player on a team can be great. It's like expecting a 5th start to have a 3.70 ERA. If Anderson is your 7th or 8th best positional player, you will compete for championships.

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1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Nope. If you actually look at aging curves, on average, a hitter is at their peak when they're first called up from the minors, and they get worse from there. Exceptions exist for players that struggle to figure it out, and do eventually, but they usually never exceed that first breakout season. Hitters, once they get to the Majors, generally don't get better. They get worse. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/

That article is from 2013 and is outdated. There have been more recent articles from baseball reference , unfortunately I can't figure out how to link them, that states the peak age is 27-28. Of course if they are called up at 25, the peak is pretty close to when they are called up.

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1 hour ago, SonofaRoache said:

Not every player on a team can be great. It's like expecting a 5th start to have a 3.70 ERA. If Anderson is your 7th or 8th best positional player, you will compete for championships.

I expect my 5th starter to have an ERA in the 3.90-4.20 range? Do you think that is unreasonable? 

 

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8 minutes ago, ptatc said:

That article is from 2013 and is outdated. There have been more recent articles from baseball reference , unfortunately I can't figure out how to link them, that states the peak age is 27-28. Of course if they are called up at 25, the peak is pretty close to when they are called up.

How is it outdated? Please tell me what they did wrong and why the evidence states otherwise? They make a pretty compelling argument in that article. 

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2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I expect my 5th starter to have an ERA in the 3.90-4.20 range? Do you think that is unreasonable? 

 

The league average ERA right now is 4.22 for all of MLB in terms of starting pitching.  In the AL that numbers shoots up to 4.41.  You are wanting your 5th starter to be about half a run better than league average.  I would call that unrealistic.

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16 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The league average ERA right now is 4.22 for all of MLB in terms of starting pitching.  In the AL that numbers shoots up to 4.41.  You are wanting your 5th starter to be about half a run better than league average.  I would call that unrealistic.

 

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I expect my 5th starter to have an ERA in the 3.90-4.20 range? Do you think that is unreasonable? 

 

To further bring home the point, only 4 teams have a 5th starter in that range, and 2 of them (Red Sox and Cardinals) should barely count because they haven't had a dedicated 5th starter all year, it's a spot that has been shared by various guys throughout the season. Also Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't pitched in nearly 2 months and Porcello's ERA is just barely in that range so I'm hesitant to even include them. Very few teams are even going to end up with a 5th starter pitching over 100 innings.

Edited by OmarComing25
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