Rebuild= Epic Fail

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, Real said:

so it sounds like the healing process alone takes over 6 months

I forget who said it maybe Hahn bu he described it as a "signifcant tear". Maybe healing time snd rehab for smaller tears is less ? Ptatc please ?

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I forget who said it maybe Hahn bu he described it as a "signifcant tear". Maybe healing time snd rehab for smaller tears is less ? Ptatc please ?

I think he said that to squash any idea that he could avoid surgery. Small tears rehab can be attempted like Dunning. Significant tear means no doubt surgery.

The second opinion is just to decide who will do the surgery.

Edited September 11, 2018 by ptatc

[ChiSox59]

5 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

And it will only effect one season.  He will be able to be ready to go by 2020 spring training, even with 2019 full flushed down the toilet.

So you expect him to be the same dude in 2020 after repairing a major elbow ligament and having not thrown a competitive pitch in 20 months? Seems a bit optimistic. 

[Thad Bosley]

8 hours ago, ptatc said:

When did the Astros get new owners? I thought is was around 2010. That would long before the decision to rebuild started.

Jim Crane became the new owner of the Astros in 2011.   And before he embarked at the time he took over on what he deemed a much-needed “rebuild”, he first got rid of the retreads (Tal Smith and Ed Wade) who were responsible for the need for the rebuild in the first place.  

He wasn’t dumb enough to let them continue their record of futility on his watch, unlike another owner we know.

No, as any competent owner would do, he threw those two to the curb and then got onto the business of performing proper due diligence to identify appropriate replacements for those guys who had proved they couldn’t get the job done, which resulted in the hiring of Jeff Luhnow.  

And now just seven years later, Crane & Luhnow are presiding over a very impressive and “sustainable winning” ballclub, and one that is on pace to be a perennial powerhouse for several years to come.  

When have you ever heard that kind of description made of the organization of which we are fans, the one run, no less, by baseball’s current longest tenured owner from over the past FOUR decades?  

Edited September 11, 2018 by Fan O'Faust

[NWINFan]

6 hours ago, Fan O'Faust said:

Jim Crane became the new owner of the Astros in 2011.   And before he embarked at the time he took over on what he deemed a much-needed “rebuild”, he first got rid of the retreads (Tal Smith and Ed Wade) who were responsible for the need for the rebuild in the first place.  

He wasn’t dumb enough to let them continue their record of futility on his watch, unlike another owner we know.

No, as any competent owner would do, he threw those two to the curb and then got onto the business of performing proper due diligence to identify appropriate replacements for those guys who had proved they couldn’t get the job done, which resulted in the hiring of Jeff Luhnow.  

And now just seven years later, Crane & Luhnow are presiding over a very impressive and “sustainable winning” ballclub, and one that is on pace to be a perennial powerhouse for several years to come.  

When have you ever heard that kind of description made of the organization of which we are fans, the one run, no less, by baseball’s current longest tenured owner from over the past FOUR decades?  

Agreed. Major changes should have come the White Sox a long time ago. After Guillen left, a major search should have been conducted for a manager. Instead the job was handed to a guy with no experience and a guy who didn't seem to want the job very much.  By 2013 the team had fallen apart and it had its worst season in over 40 years.

I wonder how long the current front office will be given in regards to this rebuild. 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, NWINFan said:

Agreed. Major changes should have come the White Sox a long time ago. After Guillen left, a major search should have been conducted for a manager. Instead the job was handed to a guy with no experience and a guy who didn't seem to want the job very much.  By 2013 the team had fallen apart and it had its worst season in over 40 years.

I wonder how long the current front office will be given in regards to this rebuild. 

Like it or not, we have to give this front office until at least the end of 2020 to evaluate things. Once we made that choice in 2016 not to fire them,  tar them, feather them, and parade them through the streets of the south side as captured villains (which we should have done), it became basically impossible to evaluate how they did on the rebuilding decisions. Even if they did everything right and put together talent that would win 3 straight world series, the team was going to spend a couple years looking bad. 

[NWINFan]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Like it or not, we have to give this front office until at least the end of 2020 to evaluate things. Once we made that choice in 2016 not to fire them,  tar them, feather them, and parade them through the streets of the south side as captured villains (which we should have done), it became basically impossible to evaluate how they did on the rebuilding decisions. Even if they did everything right and put together talent that would win 3 straight world series, the team was going to spend a couple years looking bad. 

Actually I think the rebuild is doing better than I thought it would, slow as that is. However, I don't think the organization has to wait that long to see how things are going. Year by year there should be a progression and an apparent plan. You can't just pile up prospects and hope for the best. I don't have any expectations of consecutive World Series. I just would like to see some consistency.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

Actually I think the rebuild is doing better than I thought it would, slow as that is. However, I don't think the organization has to wait that long to see how things are going. Year by year there should be a progression and an apparent plan. You can't just pile up prospects and hope for the best. I don't have any expectations of consecutive World Series. I just would like to see some consistency.

I would have cautiously agreed with you last week. IMO Kopech really, really, really hurts. Losing a top of the rotation guy for 2 years (yes he'll be back in 2020 but he won't be 100%) to my eyes is a 2 year delay. I was starting to get cautiously optimistic about next year's team improving markedly, and then that hit and now I want to hit the reset button again and trade Rodon. So now, I've got 2021 circled. With that Winston Salem team hitting the bigs that year, it's literally either 2021 as the breakthrough year or it never happens because guys flopped or got hurt.

[ptatc]

11 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

So you expect him to be the same dude in 2020 after repairing a major elbow ligament and having not thrown a competitive pitch in 20 months? Seems a bit optimistic. 

He should be pretty close. Most pitchers say it's about 12-18 months for the elbow to feel "normal." Since he'll miss all of next year that time frame is before the 2020 season. I would be more worried if he had surgery early this year and returned in the middle of next year. I would not expect him to quite be there for that year.

[ptatc]

8 hours ago, Fan O'Faust said:

Jim Crane became the new owner of the Astros in 2011.   And before he embarked at the time he took over on what he deemed a much-needed “rebuild”, he first got rid of the retreads (Tal Smith and Ed Wade) who were responsible for the need for the rebuild in the first place.  

He wasn’t dumb enough to let them continue their record of futility on his watch, unlike another owner we know.

No, as any competent owner would do, he threw those two to the curb and then got onto the business of performing proper due diligence to identify appropriate replacements for those guys who had proved they couldn’t get the job done, which resulted in the hiring of Jeff Luhnow.  

And now just seven years later, Crane & Luhnow are presiding over a very impressive and “sustainable winning” ballclub, and one that is on pace to be a perennial powerhouse for several years to come.  

When have you ever heard that kind of description made of the organization of which we are fans, the one run, no less, by baseball’s current longest tenured owner from over the past FOUR decades?  

If you look at it by that time frame, the Astors took 7 years to get to first place, 5 years before they had a winning record. That new front office was given a lot of time to make it work. The Sox are in year 2.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

He should be pretty close. Most pitchers say it's about 12-18 months for the elbow to feel "normal." Since he'll miss all of next year that time frame is before the 2020 season. I would be more worried if he had surgery early this year and returned in the middle of next year. I would not expect him to quite be there for that year.

If he has surgery in the next week or so, that puts 18 months at the middle of March of 2020.

[kwolf68]

If someone is going to be this negative maybe they need to give baseball a rest. That said, there are some things that worry me in the Sox organization and I think a healthy discussion on where the Sox are and where they are going is healthy and ultimately fun for us Sox fans. Last year the Sox were LOAD-ED with pitching prospects, mid level + rotation guys, but now:

-Kopy injured down for 2019, and will likely be brought back slowly in 2020. I expect pitch limits and a probably shut down for him in 2020

-Hansen. Once thought a potential middle rotation starter, has abysmal control problems and looks destined for the pen. This is a huge disappointment. 

-Dunning. Promising. VERY promising and looked like on fast track and was my sleeper to make the Sox rotation in 2019, but then shut down in June. His status is uncertain.

-Meidoris. Brought in from Milwaukee. Also destined for the pen with his control issues In my view

-Stephens. Bottom rotation guy at best

-Clarkin. Noting here. I believe moved to the bullpen this year. 

The little bit of good I see so far with Sox SP prospects: 

-Cease. A  "HIT" so far, but he is still coming back slowly. I suspect if all goes well he'll debut in 2019 at some point. 

-Steivers and Pilkington. 2018 picks. I am very optimistic both these guys, lots to like about them both and I think both have very high floors though limited ceilings, which I think the Sox needed to get guys like this. 

--This does not include relief pitching specs (Hamilton, Johnson and Burdi), who if pan out could help what has been mostly a disaster pen this year.

Basically, we have ZERO projected starting pitchers from any of our prospects for 2019. I think in 2020 you could see Cease and Kopech join the rotation, but next year it will be Gio, Rey, Shields and Rodon. NOW, if Gio and Rey step up, Rodon continues to pitch as he can and Shields eats innings, we get the health then the rotation should be BETTER next year (a healthy Rodon, development of Rey and Gio). But to make that next step the Sox will need kids to start performing, because thats what the rebuild was all about.

Basically as many have stated 2019 is a wash next year, but I refuse to think the season will be worse than this year. Our pitching should be NO WORSE, and should project to be better. Add Eloy to the mix, health around, Cordell getting in there, Palka moved to DH (because we have capable fielders), Castillo not on juice and maybe this team could project for 10 or so more wins next year. To get to 100 losses the Sox would need to go 6-12 over their last 18 games. I don't think they will get there. I project 64-98 record, add 10 to next year I think the floor for the Sox is 74-88 next year. Could they go +17 to make it to .500, very doubtful, but who knows. I'd guess on 74 and hope for 81. 

 

 

Edited September 11, 2018 by kwolf68

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

20 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

Basically, we have ZERO projected starting pitchers from any of our prospects for 2019. I think in 2020 you could see Cease and Kopech join the rotation, but next year it will be Gio, Rey, Shields and Rodon. NOW, if Gio and Rey step up, Rodon continues to pitch as he can and Shields eats innings, we get the health then the rotation should be BETTER next year (a healthy Rodon, development of Rey and Gio). But to make that next step the Sox will need kids to start performing, because thats what the rebuild was all about.

 

 

 

Based on your know;edge of the team in this post  I am sure you are aware that there's no chance in hell the Sox exercise the option on Shields and he will be a FA.

Since you included Shields in the 2019 rotation I'l have to assume you think the Sox resign him at a lesser rate. I'm against that many are but just was wondering if you were aware that there's no guarantee Shields will be on the 2019 Sox.

[ptatc]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

If he has surgery in the next week or so, that puts 18 months at the middle of March of 2020.

Yes. He will start throwing and will be ready and feeling "normal" by Spring training 2020. He could start pitching between 9-12 months but that time frame falls in the offseason. There really shouldn't be many issues unless there are some setbacks during rehab. Even then, there should be enough extra time to take care of it.

[Jack Parkman]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I would have cautiously agreed with you last week. IMO Kopech really, really, really hurts. Losing a top of the rotation guy for 2 years (yes he'll be back in 2020 but he won't be 100%) to my eyes is a 2 year delay. I was starting to get cautiously optimistic about next year's team improving markedly, and then that hit and now I want to hit the reset button again and trade Rodon. So now, I've got 2021 circled. With that Winston Salem team hitting the bigs that year, it's literally either 2021 as the breakthrough year or it never happens because guys flopped or got hurt.

I agree with this 100%

[Balta1701]

34 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Yes. He will start throwing and will be ready and feeling "normal" by Spring training 2020. He could start pitching between 9-12 months but that time frame falls in the offseason. There really shouldn't be many issues unless there are some setbacks during rehab. Even then, there should be enough extra time to take care of it.

Even if he's back to feeling normal, we shouldn't forget how long it took him at AAA to find a groove and his control this year. In June he had what, a 3 inning 6 walk performance or something like that? He may be feeling normal but rather than using this offseason to work on improving things, he will instead be spending it doing very little to improve other than watching video and reading. He should be physically back to start 2020, but all of the skill, the practice he did this year, he's going to need far more time to recover all that.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Even if he's back to feeling normal, we shouldn't forget how long it took him at AAA to find a groove and his control this year. In June he had what, a 3 inning 6 walk performance or something like that? He may be feeling normal but rather than using this offseason to work on improving things, he will instead be spending it doing very little to improve other than watching video and reading. He should be physically back to start 2020, but all of the skill, the practice he did this year, he's going to need far more time to recover all that.

I don't think so because he will be on the same throwing program as everyone else. He will be throwing by next June-July and working on things. He just won't have build up enough to start throwing in games before August.  However, since there isn't a need to push him he won't pitch in the MLB next year, he could if they were in a contention for a playoff spot. He will be more than ready for the Spring.

[Bob Sacamano]

So it safe to assume he's not on the roster at the start of the 2020 season? I'm sure they would want him to pitch in the minors more to find his groove than about the service time.

[ptatc]

8 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

So it safe to assume he's not on the roster at the start of the 2020 season? I'm sure they would want him to pitch in the minors more to find his groove than about the service time.

I would think he would be on the roster. He has shown he can be effective in the MLB.  Since his service time has starred there is no reason not to have him in the MLB. He will be healthy enough. Indent know if him making a few starts in the minors will make a differenc3.

[Superstar Lamar]

6 hours ago, ptatc said:

If you look at it by that time frame, the Astors took 7 years to get to first place, 5 years before they had a winning record. That new front office was given a lot of time to make it work. The Sox are in year 2.

I fear that when he returns he will regress in his control, which really was the key factor in him transforming into a great prospect

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, soxfan2014 said:

So it safe to assume he's not on the roster at the start of the 2020 season? I'm sure they would want him to pitch in the minors more to find his groove than about the service time.

Unless he is absolutely terrible in the spring of 2020, he will be on the opening day roster. 

[Balta1701]

18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Unless he is absolutely terrible in the spring of 2020, he will be on the opening day roster. 

Assuming he pitched during spring training, they could keep him at Charlotte for a month on a rehab assignment, and if they did want to keep him down, at that point they'd have to burn a minor league option to do it.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Assuming he pitched during spring training, they could keep him at Charlotte for a month on a rehab assignment, and if they did want to keep him down, at that point they'd have to burn a minor league option to do it.

I don't think the team is particularly worried about Kopech options.

[Big Hurtin]

11 hours ago, NWINFan said:

Agreed. Major changes should have come the White Sox a long time ago. After Guillen left, a major search should have been conducted for a manager. Instead the job was handed to a guy with no experience and a guy who didn't seem to want the job very much.  By 2013 the team had fallen apart and it had its worst season in over 40 years.

I wonder how long the current front office will be given in regards to this rebuild. 

How is Jerry's health these days?

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, Superstar Lamar said:

I fear that when he returns he will regress in his control, which really was the key factor in him transforming into a great prospect

True. However, they will know this long before Spring training of 2020.