The Stopgap plan for 2019-20

[Balta1701]

38 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

To add to what I said earlier about Moustaskas which I posted in anther thread since we have so many now about what happens next.

 

I also wanted JD Martinez and he's only going for a Triple Crown this year .Quite the hitter the Red Sox picked up for maybe a 1/3 of what Harper and Machado will end up costing. I know he's older than them and doesn't bring the defense and his contract is very complicated  with player opt outs for FA after the 2nd and 3rd year and mutual options after that . Doesn't sound like a bad deal for the player or the team.Maybe the W. Sox could've flipped him too if they had signed him to a higher and similar deal. He'd have had an extra yr to play with  but could've got a return similar or better to what the Dodgers gave up for Machado . The extra year worth more than what Machado brings defensively in only 1/2 season .

I am on record of wanting both Moustakas and JD Martinez many times in the off season and spring training when they both were still unsigned. I certainly know I don't have the credentials to be a GM, far far far from it. But in those 2 instances. I think I did better than the W, Sox front office did and the many posters who didn't want either because they didn't fit the window of competition, the draft choice we would've lost and the chance to see if any of our scrubs turned in gold.

Seriously, ponder the scenario.

If JD Martinez was hitting just as well with the White Sox at the trade deadline, we'd have already spent >$15 million on his production this year. We'd then have to trade him to a team capable of absorbing a contract with $115 million on it, who had an open DH or RF spot, who was also willing to take on the risk of the player opting out. How many teams could take on that much money, and are they going to give you anything of value back even though he's having a great year? I would strongly bet the answer to both is no. There would be at most 1-2 teams interested due to the money, possibly as few as 0 since he's limited in the positions he can play, and they would not give you anything of use in return if they did make that move. You'd be spending $15 million, hurting your own draft pick, the White Sox would be on their way to 94 losses instead of 97, and you'd get very little back in return, with the downside risk always there that the guy will get hurt.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Seriously, ponder the scenario.

If JD Martinez was hitting just as well with the White Sox at the trade deadline, we'd have already spent >$15 million on his production this year. We'd then have to trade him to a team capable of absorbing a contract with $115 million on it, who had an open DH or RF spot, who was also willing to take on the risk of the player opting out. How many teams could take on that much money, and are they going to give you anything of value back even though he's having a great year? I would strongly bet the answer to both is no. There would be at most 1-2 teams interested due to the money, possibly as few as 0 since he's limited in the positions he can play, and they would not give you anything of use in return if they did make that move. You'd be spending $15 million, hurting your own draft pick, the White Sox would be on their way to 94 losses instead of 97, and you'd get very little back in return, with the downside risk always there that the guy will get hurt.

I feel bad for you. You are stuck between a rock and a hard place in your arguments.

On the one hand you say you despise the Sox front office as much as anyone here. On the other hand you have your past arguments with me regarding Moustakas and JD Martinez. If you stick to your arguments like you have done about Moose and JD then your hatred for the Sox front office isn't what you say it is because they did fail in not getting very affordable free agents to flip this past off season. That applies to Moose and perhaps others but JD does not fit into affordabe as in cheap affordable.

So you have something against the Sox spending 1/3 of the amount they will have to spend on a Harper or Machado on a very fair contract that was 5 years instead w/e it takes to sign the megastars. No ? OK then you have something against the Sox spending a mere $15M on this year only to get a potential Triple Crown winner and then attempt to flip him  for a boatload because according to you our draft status may suffer from a 97 loss team to a 94 loss team ? Do i have that right ?

Ok you think the contract is so bad that no one would want a guy who might win the Triple Crown added to their playoff lineup. A front loaded contract where the team trading for him might have to only keep him for 1 1/2 years  one of the best hitters in baseball or lose him completely to FA after the 2nd 3 rd or 4th year/ Ok so you might have to keep one of the best players in baseball longer but there's also a salary relief in the final 2 years if Martinez gets that Lisfranc injury again .

Overall its a very fair not too lengthy contract for not too much money for one of the top 3 hitters in baseball. I think you could move him and at worst you keep him and try to move him the next year . After that he could leave anyway opt out. If not, now you have him for the competitive years at a reduced salary . Where really is the downside here ?

He was affordable since we're spending nothing on payroll and flippable and worst comes to worst you keep him  for the competitive years when his salary is under $20M a year or less if he gets that injury again.

I think you really like the Sox front office a lot more than you actually say. or just can't admit you were wrong . Hmm I wonder which one it is?

 

 

Edit: For anyone trying to follow this argument the JD Martinez deal is very complex and can be viewed here. https://weei.radio.com/blogs/alex-reimer/jd-martinez-contract-might-be-most-complex-red-sox-history   and if you do futher research on it you might find things like Red Sox got a bargain considering how good he is and his agent (Boras).

Edited September 10, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
add link for contract details

[Balta1701]

It's not that no one would necessarily want the guy. It's that 2/3 of the teams in the American League simply aren't going to stretch themselves by adding a potential $115 million commitment during the year for anyone. Hell, the Yankees and Dodgers, the teams you might have thought of ohter than the Red Sox, literally could not add him this year because they were wanting to stay beneath the luxury tax. 

I'm actually interested to hear an answer to this because I can't remember it ever happening. When's the last time that a guy with $100 million on his contract was traded during the season? 

[BigHurt3515]

On 9/8/2018 at 2:27 PM, Balta1701 said:

Go look at the Yankees and the Athletics, the 2 teams that are going to take the AL Wild Card this year, and ask yourself if your roster comes anywhere close to measuring up to them. Severino, Judge, Torres, Stanton, Chapman, and $50 million+ to play with this offseason, and they're a wild card team. Really, you think you're going to sneak into a wild card spot in this league with Moustakas and Cargo? Not with these teams. 

If you're going to sign someone, fine. Clearly we have to sign 2 starting pitchers minimum, we simply don't have the horses right now to even field a roster. But don't even think about the Wild Card while doing it, think about the holes you have and flipping guys only. If some magic happens and Moncada outplays Trout next year, then great, but you can't make business decisions where a key part of it is "and then a miracle occurs".

I'm not sure if you have seen the A's rotation but it is not a playoff rotation. Before the season you couldn't say looking at their roster they would be in the wildcard fighting for the West division. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

It's not that no one would necessarily want the guy. It's that 2/3 of the teams in the American League simply aren't going to stretch themselves by adding a potential $115 million commitment during the year for anyone. Hell, the Yankees and Dodgers, the teams you might have thought of ohter than the Red Sox, literally could not add him this year because they were wanting to stay beneath the luxury tax. 

I'm actually interested to hear an answer to this because I can't remember it ever happening. When's the last time that a guy with $100 million on his contract was traded during the season? 

Didn't necessarily have to happen this year as I said above. You could have tried this year and if no one bites there was always next year since his player opt out didn't kick in till after year 2. If in year 2 he has another great season maybe he opts out to become a FA thereby lessening the load for whoever trades for him to only a half season.

Since his contract is front loaded the Sox having him for the 1st  1.5 years takes approx. $37.5M off that $110M thereby potentially reducing it to $72.5M. More teams in the mix for year 2 which would include the off season could be expanded to include the Phillies and Braves and whoever else crops up as suitors. The built in protection against the Lisfranc injury is also a good part of the deal that protects buyers should that injury be determined to be related to the 1st one.

The Yankees didn't want him because they traded for Stanton, The Red Sox were the only team that wanted him because of the greatly reduced prices on free agents and Dombrowski unwilling to bid against himself and insisting on the injury protection. I think it was a great deal done by a smart GM taking advantage of the depressed prices and may very well be the move that made them the odds on favorite to win the WS and an early pick to be favored next year too.

Maybe if the Yankees had signed JD instead of trading for GS they'd be in the same position as the Red Sox and for less money.

Edited September 10, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
add more comtent

[GreenSox]

On 9/9/2018 at 11:31 AM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The Royals got a pretty good return in Brent Phillips and Jorge Lopez. Phillips has higher upside than Engel is younger and has a cannon for an arm and Lopez just pitched 8 innings of perfect ball against the Twins, Both AAA players where the Sox are weak and an arm like Lopez surely would've helped in the event of a Kopech injury.

The Royals got that return. Very questionable whether the White Sox would have.
They  couldn't move Frazier, who's the same player as Moustakas. They had to lump him with 2 good relievers, and it's debatable whether they got the return Moustakas alone got:  Rutherford has a higher ceiling I suppose, but he's a corner player.  Hahn worked his entire career under Williams, so it's no surprise that they share trade negotiation skills.. The similarities abound, including each giving up a legit prospect for a pitcher having a terrible year that should have been a pure salary dump. 

His secondary trades have, key to the Astros, Cubs and Brewers rebuilds, have come up snake-eyes.

Edited September 10, 2018 by GreenSox

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

The Royals got that return. Very questionable whether the White Sox would have.
They  couldn't move Frazier, who's the same player as Moustakas. They had to lump him with 2 good relievers, and it's debatable whether they got the return Moustakas alone got:  Rutherford has a higher ceiling I suppose, but he's a corner player.  Hahn worked his entire career under Williams, so it's no surprise that they share trade negotiation skills.. The similarities abound, including each giving up a legit prospect for a pitcher having a terrible year that should have been a pure salary dump. 

His secondary trades have, key to the Astros, Cubs and Brewers rebuilds, have come up snake-eyes.

Wait, are people still upset about the return for this deal?  Have you looked at Tommy Kahnle, who was actually the centerpiece of this deal in the last year?  Hahn sold him at absolute peak value.  If they had held on to him into this year, we'd be looking a return of a garbage reliever.  Instead we got a top 100 OF.

Also not sure why people think that $500,000 extra would have been enough for Moustakas to leave his comfortable life in KC for a 1 year deal with the White Sox.  This seems a bit presumptive to me.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Wait, are people still upset about the return for this deal?  Have you looked at Tommy Kahnle, who was actually the centerpiece of this deal in the last year?  Hahn sold him at absolute peak value.  If they had held on to him into this year, we'd be looking a return of a garbage reliever.  Instead we got a top 100 OF.

Also not sure why people think that $500,000 extra would have been enough for Moustakas to leave his comfortable life in KC for a 1 year deal with the White Sox.  This seems a bit presumptive to me.

Everything about playing GM is presumptuous . You've done it , I've done it, Everyone does it.  That's also my answer to GreenSox .Yo9u just have to assume things when contemplating how it might have turned out for the Sox . Have to assume Moustakas hits the same with the Sox as he did with the Royals and have to assume the trade also turned out similar. everybody does it.

You're one the of guys who thinks the most money will get Harper or Machado but the most money wouldn't have got Moustakas  ?  Guess what ? He's in Milwaukee now and probably somewhere else next year too  so leaving KC aint no big thang . And really is being in Chicago so far from KC that an extra 500K wouldn't mean anything ?

He only went back to KC because no one wanted him with the draft pick attached and KC didn't have to give that up  so probably outbid everyone else for a whole $6,5 M ,about 7.7 X higher than the Sox paid for Luis Roberts. If we want to take that to the extreme thats the equivalent of the Sox receiving of 15 AAA players the caliber of Phillips and Lopez for what they spent on Robert.  But taking a chance that Moose turned into 2 AAA players for $7M and another A ball OF wasn't worth it ?

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Everything about playing GM is presumptuous . You've done it , I've done it, Everyone does it.  That's also my answer to GreenSox .Yo9u just have to assume things when contemplating how it might have turned out for the Sox . Have to assume Moustakas hits the same with the Sox as he did with the Royals and have to assume the trade also turned out similar. everybody does it.

You're one the of guys who thinks the most money will get Harper or Machado but the most money wouldn't have got Moustakas  ?  Guess what ? He's in Milwaukee now and probably somewhere else next year too  so leaving KC aint no big thang . And really is being in Chicago so far from KC that an extra 500K wouldn't mean anything ?

He only went back to KC because no one wanted him with the draft pick attached and KC didn't have to give that up  so probably outbid everyone else for a whole $6,5 M ,about 7.7 X higher than the Sox paid for Luis Roberts. If we want to take that to the extreme thats the equivalent of the Sox receiving of 15 AAA players the caliber of Phillips and Lopez for what they spent on Robert.  But taking a chance that Moose turned into 2 AAA players for $7M and another A ball OF wasn't worth it ?

I am pretty sure that 7 million in Chicago would be less than 6.5 million in KC when you factor in taxes and COLA. Even if it isn't that isn't a lot of money to rebuild a life in a new City for 1 year.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I am pretty sure that 7 million in Chicago would be less than 6.5 million in KC when you factor in taxes and COLA. Even if it isn't that isn't a lot of money to rebuild a life in a new City for 1 year.

Ok but that's your assumption and I went with my assumption for why I though signing Moose in the off season was a good idea which is the main point. We can make it $8M if that makes you feel better but the point remains. I still think it would have been a good signing based on the return KC got for him.

I just think Hahn should have signed a few more very cheap veterans that might have paid off more than Miguel Gonzales. I remember even making a few posts on seeing what RA Dickey was up to. No one signed him even though he had a 2 WAR and pitched 190 innings at age 42. 2 WAR is what we got from Reynaldo Lopez this year. Knuckleballers are great at eating innings even at his age. He probably would've given the Sox a lot more than Gonzalez did for 2018.

Edited September 11, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
more content

[southsider2k5]

27 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Ok but that's your assumption and I went with my assumption for why I though signing Moose in the off season was a good idea which is the main point. We can make it $8M if that makes you feel better but the point remains. I still think it would have been a good signing based on the return KC got for him.

I just think Hahn should have signed a few more very cheap veterans that might have paid off more than Miguel Gonzales. I remember even making a few posts on seeing what RA Dickey was up to. No one signed him even though he had a 2 WAR and pitched 190 innings at age 42. 2 WAR is what we got from Reynaldo Lopez this year. Knuckleballers are great at eating innings even at his age. He probably would've given the Sox a lot more than Gonzalez did for 2018.

The 100% absolute priority for 2018 was to answer as many questions as possible about 2018 level players.  Flippables are nice and all, but realistically the most important thing we could do was figure out what the players we already had could do.  Past that, adding in roster filler as some spots was needed, and while Gonzalez bombed this year, I had no problem with what we knew coming into 2018 giving him the deal he got.  He had pitched well for us, and he was valuable enough to bring back TiQuan Forbes in a similar situation last year.

As for RA Dickey, I will mention a couple of things here.  #1, he did not sign this year with anybody.  Why would you expect a guy that no one wanted would have trade value in a few short months?  Add to that, look at the numbers James Shields put up in 2018, notice that no one wanted him either, and see how similar those numbers are to Dickey's 2017.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The 100% absolute priority for 2018 was to answer as many questions as possible about 2018 level players.  Flippables are nice and all, but realistically the most important thing we could do was figure out what the players we already had could do.  Past that, adding in roster filler as some spots was needed, and while Gonzalez bombed this year, I had no problem with what we knew coming into 2018 giving him the deal he got.  He had pitched well for us, and he was valuable enough to bring back TiQuan Forbes in a similar situation last year.

As for RA Dickey, I will mention a couple of things here.  #1, he did not sign this year with anybody.  Why would you expect a guy that no one wanted would have trade value in a few short months?  Add to that, look at the numbers James Shields put up in 2018, notice that no one wanted him either, and see how similar those numbers are to Dickey's 2017.

I'm not assuming he would have brought anything back. I'm just saying he was an innings inner and was effective and he COULD  have just as Gonzales did a year ago. Dickey has been a pretty reliable guy even into his early 40's over the last few years. From his age 35 to 42 seasons he was anywhere from 1.9 to 5,7 bWAR in all but one season.

As  far as no want wanting him, my research said he got a few offers. and pitched with Atlanta last year to be close to his home in Tennessee. Could be the offers came from teams he decided wouldn't be worth it. As far as I know he didn't make a retirement announcement. Who knows maybe the Sox did pursue him and he said no .

I also realize since I've had this discussion many times with many people that we needed to see what guys on the roster could do. I think it's possible to do both easily  especially when the prices were so depressed and there is plenty of payroll space. Not doing so just seemed illogical when looking to progress the rebuild as quickly as possible without making a mess of payroll which it certainly wouldn't have done. Maybe I just didn't think most of the guys on the roster were worthy of longer looks as much as some here did.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm not assuming he would have brought anything back. I'm just saying he was an innings inner and was effective and he COULD  have just as Gonzales did a year ago. Dickey has been a pretty reliable guy even into his early 40's over the last few years. From his age 35 to 42 seasons he was anywhere from 1.9 to 5,7 bWAR in all but one season.

As  far as no want wanting him, my research said he got a few offers. and pitched with Atlanta last year to be close to his home in Tennessee. Could be the offers came from teams he decided wouldn't be worth it. As far as I know he didn't make a retirement announcement. Who knows maybe the Sox did pursue him and he said no .

I also realize since I've had this discussion many times with many people that we needed to see what guys on the roster could do. I think it's possible to do both easily  especially when the prices were so depressed and there is plenty of payroll space. Not doing so just seemed illogical when looking to progress the rebuild as quickly as possible without making a mess of payroll which it certainly wouldn't have done. Maybe I just didn't think most of the guys on the roster were worthy of longer looks as much as some here did.

The pitching staff is the place I am least interested in adding to in general.  Dickey or Gonzalez probably wouldn't have mattered in 2018.  As it turned out, by losing Gonzalez, we actually got the chance to give a long term audition to Dylan Covey and see the progress he made this year.  It wasn't all bad.  You can make the same argument about a guy like Danny Farquar.  Sure we could have signed someone who might have pitched all year, but we saw more relievers in the pen because of his illness, and it allowed us to do some more evaluations on players in our system.

I kind of feel like we should see the same approach in 2018's off season.  If we can add a 7-10 year cornerstone piece on the free agent market, go for it.  If not, stick to roster filler to leave spots available as guys move up the system and are ready for Chicago.  We have people pushing through the system, who will need spots.  I am more interested in seeing what we can do internally first, then once we figure that out, using those resources to fill holes once we identify them.  I don't want to see moderate contracts in the middle age ranges.  No 3 year deals.  No $50-150 million contract.  Machado or Harper, or roster filler.

[ChiSox1917]

Go all out and try to get Machado. If they can’t a 2 year deal for Donaldson makes a ton of sense.  I’m not as high on arrenado as most are.  He has drastic home/away splits and his defense is only going to decline as he ages.  If they can’t get machado, get Donaldson for 2 years and then reevaluate.  A lot can change in that time.  

 

As as for pitchers, get either keuchel or Corbin.  For center...who the hell knows, there really aren’t many premier center fielders in the game right now other than trout

[turnin' two]

On 9/8/2018 at 5:33 PM, Dam8610 said:

Machado, Arenado or bust on offensive free agents IMO. MAYBE Harper, but this season from him scares me and he's still going to get mega dollars. I think Corbin would also be an interesting sign.

Anthony Rendon is a FA after next season as well.  Not at the same level, but a pretty darn good player.

I don't get all the love for Corbin.  This year has been an outlier by a pretty substantial margin.  I am just not sure this is representative of his projectable level of production.  I know pitching in Arizona is terrible, 2nd or 3rd worst in the bigs probably, but before this season, he had a career ERA of 4.12, had a WHIP of 1.35, 7.9K/9.  He will also turn 30 next season.  He will probably command somewhere around what, 4-5 years 15-17 million?  Something like that?  That seems like a huge bet on this year as compared to his track record.  Other than this year you have to go all the way back to 2013 to find a really good year on his resume.  If I were a GM, he would scare the crap out of me.

Edited September 12, 2018 by turnin' two

[turnin' two]

15 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Go all out and try to get Machado. If they can’t a 2 year deal for Donaldson makes a ton of sense.  I’m not as high on arrenado as most are.  He has drastic home/away splits and his defense is only going to decline as he ages.  If they can’t get machado, get Donaldson for 2 years and then reevaluate.  A lot can change in that time.  

 

As as for pitchers, get either keuchel or Corbin.  For center...who the hell knows, there really aren’t many premier center fielders in the game right now other than trout

This guy might want to say hello.  Certainly not at Trout level, but he is a pretty freaking good player.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cainlo01.shtml

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

21 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

The pitching staff is the place I am least interested in adding to in general.  Dickey or Gonzalez probably wouldn't have mattered in 2018.  As it turned out, by losing Gonzalez, we actually got the chance to give a long term audition to Dylan Covey and see the progress he made this year.  It wasn't all bad.  You can make the same argument about a guy like Danny Farquar.  Sure we could have signed someone who might have pitched all year, but we saw more relievers in the pen because of his illness, and it allowed us to do some more evaluations on players in our system.

I kind of feel like we should see the same approach in 2018's off season.  If we can add a 7-10 year cornerstone piece on the free agent market, go for it.  If not, stick to roster filler to leave spots available as guys move up the system and are ready for Chicago.  We have people pushing through the system, who will need spots.  I am more interested in seeing what we can do internally first, then once we figure that out, using those resources to fill holes once we identify them.  I don't want to see moderate contracts in the middle age ranges.  No 3 year deals.  No $50-150 million contract.  Machado or Harper, or roster filler.

Sounds like your plan is to only go after the big fish or nothing and wait on the  more kids while Moncada Lopez Gio Tim Anderson all get older and into to their arbitration years and wait for Kopech to recover. What if we do land a Harper ,Machado or Arenado should your plan change then ? Should it not change before you try to get them in order to show them you are not just waiting for kids. Minimum time on most of the other prospects is 2 more years and more likely 3 or 4 to prove themselves.

People worthy of spots will always be able to get spots because it sounds to me you are happy playing the scrubs we already have. It appears  like your plan is geared for 2021 and beyond that and provides no incentives for the big fish to sign except for money and the chance to play on really bad teams. Do you think Jerry will all of a sudden  up the payroll to $200M in 2021 and beyond because of all the money he saved with low payrolls for 5+ years ? Jerry may be dead before your plan starts working and who knows what happens when he's gone.

So no Brantley , Donaldson , Pollock unless we can get them for $50M or less and only 2 yrs max ? Oh yeah 2021/2022 is when there could be a possible strike or major changes in the collective bargaining agreement.  What happens if players become free agents with less time in the majors or get arbitration quicker ? Sorry , I think you're plan is just way too passive.

Edited September 12, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Sounds like your plan is to only go after the big fish or nothing and wait on the  more kids while Moncada Lopez Gio Tim Anderson all get older and into to their arbitration years and wait for Kopech to recover. What if we do land a Harper ,Machado or Arenado should your plan change then ? Should it not change before you try to get them in order to show them you are not just waiting for kids. Minimum time on most of the other prospects is 2 more years and more likely 3 or 4 to prove themselves.

People worthy of spots will always be able to get spots because it sounds to me you are happy playing the scrubs we already have. Just sounds to me like your plan is geared for 2021 and beyond that and provides no incentives for the big fish to sign except for money and the chance to play on really bad teams. Do you think Jerry will all of a sudden  up the payroll to $200M in 2021 and beyond because of all the money he saved with low payrolls for 5+ years ? Jerry may be dead before your plan starts working and who knows what happens when he's gone.

So no Brantley , Donaldson , Pollock unless we can get them for $50M or less and only 2 yrs max ? Just sounds to me you are Jerry's best friend  and not at all interested in the Sox being competitive. Oh yeah 2021/2022 is when there could be a possible strike or major changes in the collective bargaining agreement.  What happens if players become free agents with less time in the majors or get arbitration quicker ? Sorry , I think you're is just way too passive.

I am not interested in placeholders or half-assed plans to go for it.  The list of guys you gave is  bunch of guys who are short term guys, older guys, or guys with significant injury history... or more than one of the above.  At this stage I am not interested in putting a 78 win team out on the field so we can improve from a 73 win team, and in the meantime blocking kids we need to evaluate, or open up spots for them to play every day.  Today is about sorting through the Palka's and Delmonico's of the world so that we know where we stand when the big wave of position players starts to hit.  We have a potential superstar CF in Luis Robert and another potential very good CF in Luis Gonzales in the system.  No, I don't want to block them with an injury riddled large contract player in AJ Pollack.  If Robert and Gonzalez bust, and we need a CF in two years to make this a playoff team, then the next AJ Pollack will be out there.

The exception to me is franchise changing players.  If you get a guy that is going to fit into a position as a star for the next 5 to 7 years, then you do it.  If you can pull in Bryce Harper, Manny Machado or even Clayton Kershaw, then you do it.  Odds are extremely high that all of those guys are going to be better than anyone we have a chance at generating in our system during that time frame.  No other FAs this year can you say that about.

It isn't about the payroll, it is about maximizing the rebuild.  It is about getting every guy directly from the system possible so that we have the most assets possible left when it is time to win (both players and money).  We started this rebuild largely due to fans calls for it.  Now is not the time to chuck that into the lake and quickly reverse course before this has run its course.  This is still the "passive" stage of the rebuild as you call it.  Once we start to turn the corner, there will be plenty of time to Go For It.

If we get to a point where this is an 85 win team that could be a 90-95 win team with additions, that is when we should change course and look at more additions.  That could be 2019, 2020, or even later.  As we stand today we are trying to fight off 100 losses this year, and looking at probably the low to mid 70's again next year.  There is no good reason to add middle of the ground window dressing yet.  Roster filler?  Sure.  2nd and 3rd tier FA's?  No thanks.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

33 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I am not interested in placeholders or half-assed plans to go for it.  The list of guys you gave is  bunch of guys who are short term guys, older guys, or guys with significant injury history... or more than one of the above.  At this stage I am not interested in putting a 78 win team out on the field so we can improve from a 73 win team, and in the meantime blocking kids we need to evaluate, or open up spots for them to play every day.  Today is about sorting through the Palka's and Delmonico's of the world so that we know where we stand when the big wave of position players starts to hit.  We have a potential superstar CF in Luis Robert and another potential very good CF in Luis Gonzales in the system.  No, I don't want to block them with an injury riddled large contract player in AJ Pollack.  If Robert and Gonzalez bust, and we need a CF in two years to make this a playoff team, then the next AJ Pollack will be out there.

The exception to me is franchise changing players.  If you get a guy that is going to fit into a position as a star for the next 5 to 7 years, then you do it.  If you can pull in Bryce Harper, Manny Machado or even Clayton Kershaw, then you do it.  Odds are extremely high that all of those guys are going to be better than anyone we have a chance at generating in our system during that time frame.  No other FAs this year can you say that about.

It isn't about the payroll, it is about maximizing the rebuild.  It is about getting every guy directly from the system possible so that we have the most assets possible left when it is time to win (both players and money).  We started this rebuild largely due to fans calls for it.  Now is not the time to chuck that into the lake and quickly reverse course before this has run its course.  This is still the "passive" stage of the rebuild as you call it.  Once we start to turn the corner, there will be plenty of time to Go For It.

If we get to a point where this is an 85 win team that could be a 90-95 win team with additions, that is when we should change course and look at more additions.  That could be 2019, 2020, or even later.  As we stand today we are trying to fight off 100 losses this year, and looking at probably the low to mid 70's again next year.  There is no good reason to add middle of the ground window dressing yet.  Roster filler?  Sure.  2nd and 3rd tier FA's?  No thanks.

OK see you in 2022 or 2023 or 2024 or ??? with that plan. I'm sure everyone and everything will just magically come together after Jerry is dead and with a new collective bargaining agreement . Let's just keep assessing and reassessing our scrubs. Lets trade Rodon and Abreu then so we can be even worse because now they don't fit into the new window of competitiveness to create even more holes. You know the chances of getting the superstar free agents are practically nil and we won't get them without opt outs in their contracts so getting them for 5-7 year is not practical. Your thinking is a few years behind the times.

Edited September 12, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[southsider2k5]

20 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

OK see you in 2022 or 2023 or 2024 or ??? with that plan. I'm sure everyone and everything will just magically come together after Jerry is dead and with a new collective bargaining agreement . Let's just keep assessing and reassessing our scrubs. Lets trade Rodon and Abreu then so we can be even worse because now they don't fit into the new window of competitiveness to create even more holes. You know the chances of getting the superstar free agents are practically nil and we won't get them without opt outs in their contracts so getting them for 5-7 year is not practical. Your thinking is a few years behind the times.

This is what a rebuild looks like.  I am not quite sure what the panic is for.  Unless you have the finances of a major market team with large fan support, self-evaluation and player creation is the best way to a title.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

11 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is what a rebuild looks like.  I am not quite sure what the panic is for.  Unless you have the finances of a major market team with large fan support, self-evaluation and player creation is the best way to a title.

I'm not panicking I just have a different approach than you do for the rebuild. Being proactive when you have the payroll space to do so easily isn't unreasonable. Signing guys to 3 or 4 years isn't unreasonable given that's how long it might take your way to compete again while still being able to flip them.They won't block anyone. It's very simple to get rid of guys by trades, non-tendering or releasing them. Delmonico,Palka, Engel, Cordell,Avi and Leury Garcia are all 26 and 27, Sanchez is a utility guy.LaMarre is 29. Kevin Smith is 30. Jose Rondon might be the only position player on the roster to need further evaluating. The best we can hope for from this motley crew is a utility player, a DH, a 4th OF and a long shot relief pitcher in Davidson ,Chances are in 2 years none of these guys is around so a few FA's for 1-4 years aren't going to block anyone coming up. I have no idea why you keeping bringing up guys being blocked, It just doesn't happen unless you have a premier guy at a certain position.

Castillo is probably gone by trade deadline 2019 but the Sox may have to play him to get anything for him meaning the one guy who earned more playing, time Omar Narvaez won't be getting the AB's he needs. Or maybe he gets traded at his all time low value in the off season since Zavala is close. Basically most of the position players are already filler with no further need of evaluation. It's time to separate the wheat from the chaff and move ahead with more reasonable chances for guys who can be flipped. Rodon and Abreu are now more likely to be traded so might as well get some more like them because no on else we have will bring back anything.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm not panicking I just have a different approach than you do for the rebuild. Being proactive when you have the payroll space to do so easily isn't unreasonable. Signing guys to 3 or 4 years isn't unreasonable given that's how long it might take your way to compete again while still being able to flip them.They won't block anyone. It's very simple to get rid of guys by trades, non-tendering or releasing them. Delmonico,Palka, Engel, Cordell,Avi and Leury Garcia are all 26 and 27, Sanchez is a utility guy.LaMarre is 29. Kevin Smith is 30. Jose Rondon might be the only position player on the roster to need further evaluating. The best we can hope for from this motley crew is a utility player, a DH, a 4th OF and a long shot relief pitcher in Davidson ,Chances are in 2 years none of these guys is around so a few FA's for 1-4 years aren't going to block anyone coming up. I have no idea why you keeping bringing up guys being blocked, It just doesn't happen unless you have a premier guy at a certain position.

Castillo is probably gone by trade deadline 2019 but the Sox may have to play him to get anything for him meaning the one guy who earned more playing, time Omar Narvaez won't be getting the AB's he needs. Or maybe he gets traded at his all time low value in the off season since Zavala is close. Basically most of the position players are already filler with no further need of evaluation. It's time to separate the wheat from the chaff and move ahead with more reasonable chances for guys who can be flipped. Rodon and Abreu are now more likely to be traded so might as well get some more like them because no on else we have will bring back anything.

Castillo is a great example of what can happen signing bridge guys.  Smith and Narvaez actually ended up as one of the top catching combos in all of baseball.  Now Castillo is going to block one of them and is now taking time from them.  Plus we still need to be thinking about making room for Zavala and Collins in short time.

 

[Ducksnort]

Here's your stopgap, in the most literal sense of the term...everyone needs to stop getting fucking injured. How bout that?

[Leonard Zelig]

On 9/9/2018 at 10:50 PM, BigHurt3515 said:

I'm not sure if you have seen the A's rotation but it is not a playoff rotation. Before the season you couldn't say looking at their roster they would be in the wildcard fighting for the West division. 

Who is going to catch them for the wild card?

[Ducksnort]

21 hours ago, Leonard Zelig said:

Who is going to catch them for the wild card?

No one, but they are chasing Houston for the AL West crown (only 3 games back as of 9/12). The closest one to Oakland for the 2nd wildcard is TB and they are 9 games worse...