The Stopgap plan for 2019-20

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 9/12/2018 at 10:41 AM, southsider2k5 said:

Castillo is a great example of what can happen signing bridge guys.  Smith and Narvaez actually ended up as one of the top catching combos in all of baseball.  Now Castillo is going to block one of them and is now taking time from them.  Plus we still need to be thinking about making room for Zavala and Collins in short time.

 

I don't think Castillo will block anyone. Catcher is one position where its easy to share time because of the rest that position needs. I think the Sox look to move him and at worst he shares the position with Narvaez until the trade deadline.

Castillo was better defensively and a veteran to help young pitcher develop was the main point of getting Castillo but, surprise, the Sox once again ended up making a poor choice, mostly wrong by luck, but still wrong. At least it wasn't an overly expensive wrong choice . That's the whole point of signing more bridge guys. If they suck you don't cripple payroll and if they do good you can flip them.

Edited September 13, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[southsider2k5]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I don't think Castillo will block anyone. Catcher is one position where its easy to share time because of the rest that position needs. I think the Sox look to move him and at worst he shares the position with Narvaez until the trade deadline. It sucks they are both lefty so I'd expect Castillo to be moved sooner rather than later.

Castillo was better defensively and a veteran to help young pitcher develop was the main point of getting Castillo but, surprise, the Sox once again ended up making a poor choice, mostly wrong by luck, but still wrong. At least it wasn't an overly expensive wrong choice . That's the whole point of signing more bridge guys. If they suck you don't cripple payroll and if they do good you can flip them.

He is already blocking time for both Narvaez and Smith.  The Sox are actually 9th in MLB in catcher fWAR, and have a 102 RC+ out of the catching position which is good for a 3rd place tie in all of baseball.  One or both of these guys could be a great future trade asset when Zavala and/or Collins are ready.  But we might never know because of Castillo blocking that spot.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

He is already blocking time for both Narvaez and Smith.  The Sox are actually 9th in MLB in catcher fWAR, and have a 102 RC+ out of the catching position which is good for a 3rd place tie in all of baseball.  One or both of these guys could be a great future trade asset when Zavala and/or Collins are ready.  But we might never know because of Castillo blocking that spot.

He's not blocking them . He's just getting playing time because he missed so much time and the Sox probably are hoping he can show something to other teams that might be interested in him. You can't be serious about him blocking them for the last 20 or so games of the season. You have some serious issues about what you think blocking someone is. While the Sox continue to suck you can't say anyone is being blocked . That's a term to use when you have good players trapped by a good player at the same position on a good team. Smith is a non-entity who is 30 and not part of the future. Him and Castillo can be traded .Narvaez could be traded as can Collins or Zavala but since we suck we can still wait to make those decisions just as you recommended, wait and evaluate. Maybe this was a career year for Narvaez and he is still a bad defensive catcher. He is not a top prospect, He can continue to share time with Castillo next year IF they are both around and I'm betting Castillo won't be.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

He's not blocking them . He's just getting playing time because he missed so much time and the Sox probably are hoping he can show something to other teams that might be interested in him. You can't be serious about him blocking them for the last 20 or so games of the season. You have some serious issues about what you think blocking someone is. While the Sox continue to suck you can't say anyone is being blocked . That's a term to use when you have good players trapped by a good player at the same position on a good team. Smith is a non-entity who is 30 and not part of the future. Him and Castillo can be traded .Narvaez could be traded as can Collins or Zavala but since we suck we can still wait to make those decisions just as you recommended, wait and evaluate. Maybe this was a career year for Narvaez and he is still a bad defensive catcher. He is not a top prospect, He can continue to share time with Castillo next year IF they are both around and I'm betting Castillo won't be.

With the rarity of quality catchers around MLB, guys like Narvaez and Smith have value.  They are giving you statistically what Castillo was supposed to give us for the $15 million we signed him for you.  You can't claim to want to sign value guys, and then just hand wave away the value guys we have in our own system who can't play because we have a free agent contract blocking them.

[southsider2k5]

Let's be honest here.  Adding 2nd and 3rd tier free agents to this team is putting a bass system into a 83 Chevette.  At the end of the day, it is a piece of junk that isn't going anywhere.  Wait until the Mercedes is in our driveway in a couple of years, and then see what options packages we can add to that.

[Bob Sacamano]

I'd be down with a Donaldson signing on a one year deal, assuming (well, knowing) they don't sign Machado. I'm sure he'd take a 1 year deal to prove his health for a season to be able to sign from anywhere between a 2-4 year deal the following year.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

20 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

With the rarity of quality catchers around MLB, guys like Narvaez and Smith have value.  They are giving you statistically what Castillo was supposed to give us for the $15 million we signed him for you.  You can't claim to want to sign value guys, and then just hand wave away the value guys we have in our own system who can't play because we have a free agent contract blocking them.

So you really think the Sox are going to do nothing for the next 2 years ? Is that what you're trying to tell me? What do you see them trying to accomplish in the next few years besides failing to get big name free agents .

Edited September 14, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
spelling

[Special K]

Signing middling and aging free agents has been the Sox M.O. for the past decade.  We've had zero playoff appearances during that run.  It doesn't work.  They need to go big or go home.  Sign Machado, Pollock, and trade some talent for Realmuto.  

 

Edited September 14, 2018 by Special K

[southsider2k5]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

So you really think the Sox are going to do nothing for the next 2 years ? Is that what you're trying to tell me? What do you see them trying to accomplish in the next few years besides failing to get big name free agents .

I see them taking a shot at a couple of bigger guys and other than that, filling the roster.  Maybe that changes if they can get a Machado or Arendo, but I think you are seeing what they will do for at least this off season, by looking at last season.  Once they get through 2019 they look at the results from the White Sox down through the DSL and reevaluate.

Put on the spot, I think this off season will feature a back end scrap heap starter, and some MiLB spring training invites to a few others.  Remember last years biggest deal was a 2/15 deal for Castillo that the team already regrets in something like a 95 loss season.  I think we take a shot at Machado and get outbid by someone looking to make up ground with the powers of MLB.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I see them taking a shot at a couple of bigger guys and other than that, filling the roster.  Maybe that changes if they can get a Machado or Arendo, but I think you are seeing what they will do for at least this off season, by looking at last season.  Once they get through 2019 they look at the results from the White Sox down through the DSL and reevaluate.

Put on the spot, I think this off season will feature a back end scrap heap starter, and some MiLB spring training invites to a few others.  Remember last years biggest deal was a 2/15 deal for Castillo that the team already regrets in something like a 95 loss season.  I think we take a shot at Machado and get outbid by someone looking to make up ground with the powers of MLB.

So you really think there's anything to be gained by continuing to evaluate guys like Avi, Palka Davidson Engel Sanchez Cordell Rondon Delmoico Narvaez Smith or do we see any of then traded or nontendered ? Rodon and Abreu  we trade them in the off season, a year from now ?

[iWiN4PreP]

30 minutes ago, Special K said:

Signing middling and aging free agents has been the Sox M.O. for the past decade.  We've had zero playoff appearances during that run.  It doesn't work.  They need to go big or go home.  Sign Machado, Pollock, and trade some talent for Realmuto.  

 

I agree with your approach, but disagree with your suggestions.

 

Realmuto would cost an arm and a leg, no reason to do that when the White Sox have 2-3 catchers that are producing well above average in WAR. Why not just sign Grandal (sp?) from LAD for the framing + HR power instead of waste talent there?

 

Pollock is well past his prime as evident by his past 30+ day slide. He is fragile and seems to miss extended time every year. Hard PASS.

 

Sign Machado + Harper + Maybe Grandal. Why not? W'Sox have all the financial flexibility in the world right now. OK Not that? Sign Machado, Corbin, Grandal. 

[Bob Sacamano]

30 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I see them taking a shot at a couple of bigger guys and other than that, filling the roster.  Maybe that changes if they can get a Machado or Arendo, but I think you are seeing what they will do for at least this off season, by looking at last season.  Once they get through 2019 they look at the results from the White Sox down through the DSL and reevaluate.

Put on the spot, I think this off season will feature a back end scrap heap starter, and some MiLB spring training invites to a few others.  Remember last years biggest deal was a 2/15 deal for Castillo that the team already regrets in something like a 95 loss season.  I think we take a shot at Machado and get outbid by someone looking to make up ground with the powers of MLB.

Exactly. This team probably isn't competing next year so I don't mind the whole "trying to catch lightning in a bottle" approach with stopgaps next season. If they are doing good but the team overall isn't competing, the Sox can move the pieces at the deadline. If the players don't work out then no biggie since there is not much of a commitment. If the players are doing well and the team is competitive, awesome.

[southsider2k5]

26 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

So you really think there's anything to be gained by continuing to evaluate guys like Avi, Palka Davidson Engel Sanchez Cordell Rondon Delmoico Narvaez Smith or do we see any of then traded or nontendered ? Rodon and Abreu  we trade them in the off season, a year from now ?

I don't think Avi is back in 19. Davidson is a maybe. Delmonico is going to lose his job in April. The rest are placeholders until the Jimenez/Robert/Gonzalez/Micker crowd shows up.

[southsider2k5]

13 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

I agree with your approach, but disagree with your suggestions.

 

Realmuto would cost an arm and a leg, no reason to do that when the White Sox have 2-3 catchers that are producing well above average in WAR. Why not just sign Grandal (sp?) from LAD for the framing + HR power instead of waste talent there?

 

Pollock is well past his prime as evident by his past 30+ day slide. He is fragile and seems to miss extended time every year. Hard PASS.

 

Sign Machado + Harper + Maybe Grandal. Why not? W'Sox have all the financial flexibility in the world right now. OK Not that? Sign Machado, Corbin, Grandal. 

We also have potential starters moving through the system in Zavala and Collins who would come with zero price.

[Balta1701]

I think I'm agreeing with @southsider2k5(Yes I'm actually tagging him because I'm interested in his answer to this one) but there's one topic I don't see in this thread yet. Do we really think the White Sox will cut payroll dramatically next year?

Next year we're out of the Shields disaster and, if he's right, Garcia seems unlikely to be re-upped. Assuming Abreu is brought back and the obvious ones like arbitration for Rodon and Yolmer, we've got only about $40 million committed next offseason even including all the minimum wage guys. 

They have absolutely cut the total payroll over the last 2 seasons, on paper our payroll for 2018 is $70 million...However we are also still dealing with the huge bonus and penalties for Robert, which was $50 million over 2 seasons, and since we're worse now than in 2016 and we're not giving up draft picks we are also paying another $5+ million in draft costs, so at least for this year it's like the money spent on players was closer to $100 million, and counting Robert's costs during 2017 we probably spent closer to $110 million, while 2016 and 2015 the payroll was even higher still.

Next year we will still have high draft spending, but we won't have the excuse of Robert's money at all and we have expiring deals, so on paper we're basically cutting the payroll from close to $100 million to $45 million or so. Attendance dropped again between these 2 years but not nearly by enough to account for that.

Obviously we have to go find 2 starting pitchers just to fill out the rotation with warm bodies, but if 2k5 is right and we're not going to go for the 3 year stopgaps elsewhere, we still have $50 million to spend just to get back to the payroll of this year. If we miss on Machado and Harper...what do we do with that money? I don't know the answer to this and so I'm curious.

If the answer involves the phrase "Building equity with ownership" I don't think I'm going to be particularly happy.

[Special K]

1 hour ago, iWiN4PreP said:

I agree with your approach, but disagree with your suggestions.

 

Realmuto would cost an arm and a leg, no reason to do that when the White Sox have 2-3 catchers that are producing well above average in WAR. Why not just sign Grandal (sp?) from LAD for the framing + HR power instead of waste talent there?

 

Pollock is well past his prime as evident by his past 30+ day slide. He is fragile and seems to miss extended time every year. Hard PASS.

 

Sign Machado + Harper + Maybe Grandal. Why not? W'Sox have all the financial flexibility in the world right now. OK Not that? Sign Machado, Corbin, Grandal. 

Wholeheartedly agree with this.  I figured Pollock would be a stopgap until some of the younger guys are ready to take over.  But we need to go big or go home.  I think we need a catcher though.  Not sold on Collins.  Don't know enough about Zavala other than the fact that he's having a nice year.  

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

I think I'm agreeing with @southsider2k5(Yes I'm actually tagging him because I'm interested in his answer to this one) but there's one topic I don't see in this thread yet. Do we really think the White Sox will cut payroll dramatically next year?

Next year we're out of the Shields disaster and, if he's right, Garcia seems unlikely to be re-upped. Assuming Abreu is brought back and the obvious ones like arbitration for Rodon and Yolmer, we've got only about $40 million committed next offseason even including all the minimum wage guys. 

They have absolutely cut the total payroll over the last 2 seasons, on paper our payroll for 2018 is $70 million...However we are also still dealing with the huge bonus and penalties for Robert, which was $50 million over 2 seasons, and since we're worse now than in 2016 and we're not giving up draft picks we are also paying another $5+ million in draft costs, so at least for this year it's like the money spent on players was closer to $100 million, and counting Robert's costs during 2017 we probably spent closer to $110 million, while 2016 and 2015 the payroll was even higher still.

Next year we will still have high draft spending, but we won't have the excuse of Robert's money at all and we have expiring deals, so on paper we're basically cutting the payroll from close to $100 million to $45 million or so. Attendance dropped again between these 2 years but not nearly by enough to account for that.

Obviously we have to go find 2 starting pitchers just to fill out the rotation with warm bodies, but if 2k5 is right and we're not going to go for the 3 year stopgaps elsewhere, we still have $50 million to spend just to get back to the payroll of this year. If we miss on Machado and Harper...what do we do with that money? I don't know the answer to this and so I'm curious.

If the answer involves the phrase "Building equity with ownership" I don't think I'm going to be particularly happy.

I doubt we spend as much last year.  Again, I think we target some spending on the high end, but ultimately fail as we typically do when it comes to the recruit of top level free agents.  I hadn't really considered it in terms of payroll, but I would guess that the payroll will be low.  I do think we will try hard to extend both Jimenez and Kopech, and we also will be back spending in Latin America this summer.  That won't be enough to make up for the loss of the payroll for guys like Shields and Avi, but I am not to worried about it right now.  There is actually a pretty solid case that spending too early might actually be more detrimental to the rebuild by pushing down the levels of draft picks they could get in 2020 and 2021.  Yes we could win a few more game next year, but why?  To go from 73 to 78 wins?  Meh.

I am more worried about the teams spending when the time is right.