Latest Fangraphs Prospect Rankings

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, TaylorStSox said:

I get what you're saying, it's just completely outlandish. Vizquel without the defense is basically David Eckstein, so again, wtf. What's next, Dustin Podroia without the power? Frank Thomas without the walks and power? 

Ok, it's Eckstein.  You win.  You don't have to ignore anything more from me.

[soxfan49]

I'm not trying to beat a dead horse, but how is Cease at 95?

[TaylorStSox]

Like I said, I don't have a problem with the pick because it's safe and he probably won't miss, but to expect anything above a 725 ops with solid defense is just setting yourself up for disappointment. 

[Dick Allen]

IMO, people are way too hung up on where some random person rates guys. In the end, it doesn't matter. What matters is how he plays. 

[flavum]

5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

IMO, people are way too hung up on where some random person rates guys. In the end, it doesn't matter. What matters is how he plays. 

Agreed. I’ve never been into rankings because a lot of the time guys are ranked higher based on not playing.

I would rather see rankings based on some accomplishment rather than speculation in how his tools will translate...and then they don’t or he gets hurt. 

[bmags]

14 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

IMO, people are way too hung up on where some random person rates guys. In the end, it doesn't matter. What matters is how he plays. 

Yes, and it should be interesting but all the discussion only seems to be whether it validates their preconceived notions and if not its discredited.

I can't watch most of these guys so it's helpful to know that, hey, tough year, but people still group a bunch of our prospects in top 150.

What makes most a fan of the fangraphs writers is their personality and they are open via weekly chats about why they are seeing things the way they are. It doesn't mean you need to agree. Like I'm pretty sure at this point Luis Gonzalez is underrated, but he's also not pushed very hard, so I see why he is not getting much hype.

[southsider2k5]

18 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yes, and it should be interesting but all the discussion only seems to be whether it validates their preconceived notions and if not its discredited.

I can't watch most of these guys so it's helpful to know that, hey, tough year, but people still group a bunch of our prospects in top 150.

What makes most a fan of the fangraphs writers is their personality and they are open via weekly chats about why they are seeing things the way they are. It doesn't mean you need to agree. Like I'm pretty sure at this point Luis Gonzalez is underrated, but he's also not pushed very hard, so I see why he is not getting much hype.

With so many superstar potential guys in the system, I think Gonzalez has been largely forgotten about.  His numbers have actually been improving with each level he has moved up, he seems to be a kid who can play CF, and with 40 doubles, 5 triples, and 14 homers in 500 ABs this year, he also seems to have legitimate pop.  Also very nice is that his K rate is sitting at around 20%

There is a real chance he beats Luis Robert to Chicago, wins the CF, and makes it really difficult to take away.  I know the OF situation is insanely crowded, but I hope to see him start at Birmingham next year and see what happens.

[Special K]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

With so many superstar potential guys in the system, I think Gonzalez has been largely forgotten about.  His numbers have actually been improving with each level he has moved up, he seems to be a kid who can play CF, and with 40 doubles, 5 triples, and 14 homers in 500 ABs this year, he also seems to have legitimate pop.  Also very nice is that his K rate is sitting at around 20%

There is a real chance he beats Luis Robert to Chicago, wins the CF, and makes it really difficult to take away.  I know the OF situation is insanely crowded, but I hope to see him start at Birmingham next year and see what happens.

Good problem to have.  At some point, it would be nice to have a crowded outfield so that we could be in a position to trade away some talent for pieces that will help us compete now, e.g., Cubs being able to trade away Torres / Jimenez for win now pieces.  

[Jake]

If a team was offering me Dylan Cease for Nick Madrigal, I'd do it.

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, Jake said:

If a team was offering me Dylan Cease for Nick Madrigal, I'd do it.

Pitching trumps hitting. Even high end relievers 

[Dam8610]

On 9/17/2018 at 5:22 PM, GenericUserName said:

The FG guys in general are higher than most on smaller, speedy, middle infielders with great hit tools and good defense while they are really low on "stuff" pitchers that aren't big or have control issues (and Cease fits both categories). I think both of them still think Cease will be a reliever, so its really not that bad of a ranking with that in mind. 

Cease has control issues? Isn't his BB/9 incredibly low?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

Cease has control issues? Isn't his BB/9 incredibly low?

No it wasn't. 50 walks in 124 innings across 2 levels this year. If my math is right it's just a a little over 3.6 walks per 9. You generally didn't hear about his walks because he didn't give up many hits per 9 which is why he had an outstanding  WHIP of .99 in AA .

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

No it wasn't. 50 walks in 124 innings across 2 levels this year. If my math is right it's just a a little over 3.6 walks per 9. You generally didn't hear about his walks because he didn't give up many hits per 9 which is why he had an outstanding  WHIP of .99 in AA .

Which at the major league level probably means something more like 5/9 IP MiLB hitters tend to chase more than MLB hitters do.  I love the progress that Cease made this year, but there are still a couple of big boxes that need to be checked.

[GenericUserName]

Cease had decent walk numbers, but from what it sounds like he still is only at a level of command where he can make sure he fills up the strike zone, but he doesn't have enough control to continually hit his spots. It is something that probably won't show up in the stats at AA because he still has good enough stuff to blow past most guys, but it might get him in trouble at AAA and the majors. 

I will say though that it does sound like he improves every time there is a new scouting report on him, so there might still be some questions on the command, but by the time he reaches the majors those might be smaller. 

[Dominikk85]

I think fangraphs changed their rating a little overall in that they now give all pitchers a slight risk tax for being a pitcher and they now follow a bit more the cubs model of "building through hitting" simply  because hitters flame out less often due to injuries.

 

They just have 4 pitchers in the top20 now, it is basically now every pitcher gets half a grade discount to their FV just for being a pitcher. Statistically this is probably the right  thing to do because so many pitchers get hurt.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 9/18/2018 at 9:16 AM, flavum said:

Agreed. I’ve never been into rankings because a lot of the time guys are ranked higher based on not playing.

I would rather see rankings based on some accomplishment rather than speculation in how his tools will translate...and then they don’t or he gets hurt. 

There are ranking based on accomplishment only no upside involved. I made a thread in the Future Sox board .

MiLB: Top 200 Power Rankings 2018

 

Only 5 Sox in the top 200 as compared o some teams like Toronto with 14 .

 

 

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

There are ranking based on accomplishment only no upside involved. I made a thread in the Future Sox board .

MiLB: Top 200 Power Rankings 2018

 

Only 5 Sox in the top 200 as compared o some teams like Toronto with 14 .

 

 

Not totally surprising especially considering how many of the Sox top guys missed considerable time with injuries.  

[Dominikk85]

On 9/18/2018 at 5:08 PM, TaylorStSox said:

Prime Vizquel? Oh ffs, come on. Vizquel is probably the greatest defensive SS of all time. Madrigal most likely won't even stick at SS in the majors, so it's an odd comparison. 

 

The only difference I see between Madrigal and Eckstein is that Madrigal will probably hit for a higher average, but walk a lot less. So they're basically even OPS wise. 

I think the obp will be similar to Eckstein but madrigal will have more power. Eckstein averaged like 6 homers a year. Madrigal has shown little power but most scouts still think he will grow into 10-15 homer power.

 

Eckstein was a 350/350 hitter and I think madrigal will be more like 350/420 (opb/slg)

[BFirebird]

On 9/18/2018 at 10:31 AM, southsider2k5 said:

You are trying to be way too crazy here. 

Both were smallish players.  Omar Vizquel was a game changing defender at SS.  All reports are that Nick Madrigal has that ability at 2B.  Omar was an ideal #2 hitter between Kenny Lofton and Robbie Alomar who could do just about anything with his bat to win a game.  I think Nick is also going to be that type of hitter, with a similar amount of power, speed, and SBs.  Omar took a walk around every 10 to 12 PAs, and Madrigal put up a similar number in college.  If you still a solid lead off hitter in front of him, and a good power hitter behind him, I am feeling pretty confident with his baseball IQ, that the walks will come at a minimum of a similar rate, if not more.

This is totally on the assumption that due to physical limitations that Nicky doesn't gain a ton of power in his game.  All bets are off if he can find the same weight room as a Jose Altuve found in about 2015.  Speaking of Altuve, if you look at the first four seasons of his career, that might be another solid bat comp for Nick.

Interjecting myself in the argument here.....I like the Altuve Pre-2015 as the comp.  And you can actually use Altuve alone as floor/ceiling.  2014 Altuve as the ceiling (batting champion / .830 OPS with 8 HR) & Pre-2018 Altuve as floor (.700ish OPS - which to your point is pretty much Eckstein).  This is probably what we are looking at in Madrigal.  I agree with pretty much everything you are saying with him and I believe the Sox believe he can be that clubhouse leader and has the intangibles they were looking for on top of the very high floor.