What do you expect from Rodon, Lopez and Giolito in 2019?

[Jack Parkman]

I ask this question, as all 3 have had their bright moments(Rodon's July/August, Giolito's August/Early September, Lopez's mid-August-September) and points of being absolute garbage(Rodon-September, Giolito-Start of the season-June 15th Lopez-June 1-August 15th) 

So the question begs, which guy is each pitcher really? 

My thoughts: 

Rodon isn't missing bats like he used to. Will that come back next year? Walk issues creeping back up in September, and he was really lucky with batted balls during his hot streak. I don't really know what to make of his half season. 

Giolito goes as his fastball velocity goes. If he can hit the mid 90s, he's dominant.  low hits and 1-3 walks per game.  If he drops to the 91-93 range he gets shelled. The last 2-3 weeks or so his velo has dropped again, and so has his performance. I think he's tired and building up arm strength to work toward 200 innings next season. A lot will be said about where he is out of spring training. His command and velocity got much better as the year went on, but late in September those issues have popped up again. Now that his delivery has been straightened out, 2019 is huge for him. It is time to put up or shut up. 

Lopez is weird. For the majority of the season, he was not missing bats, even while throwing in the high 90s. He also wasn't using his changeup because he didn't have the feel for it. Hanging changeups get hit hard, and that happened to Lopez a lot. Since August 15th, he seems to have discovered the feelins for the changeup and has exploded. Also, he ditched the fastball-cutter combo for a fastball-change-curve combo at three distinct speeds and that has helped immensely. He also has ditched the high 80s cutter he had to start the season for a low 80s slider that he mixes in there as a show me pitch. The guy we've seen toward the end of the season is much better than the guy we saw open the season that was more smoke and mirrors than anything else. 

Ranking in confidence level in 2019 performance: From 1-10 with 1 being a DFA candidate and 10 being Cy Young candidate

Rodon- 6 (I really don't know what he is after the injury. He has to start missing basts again) 

Lopez-7.5(I gave him a half point, it is ok for you to do it too-I think he's going to put together a solid 2019)

Giolito  5-I don't know what to make of him either. It all depends on his fastball velocity. If he can keep it in the 93-96 range the majority of next season, I think he'll end up being every bit as good as Lopez. If he still throws 91-93, he's toast, and bust will be a common phrase when they talk about him in baseball circles.

The only reason Rodon has a higher confidence level is because he's never been as bad as Giolito was to start the season. Otherwise, I'm about equally confident in both because of their walk/command issues. I used to be a huge fan of Giolito but this season is really testing my patience. 

I wasn't as high on Lopez as I was Giolito until Lopez started missing bats regularly. 

Edited September 24, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[ChiSox59]

I expect Gio to be much better. (7)

I expect about the same from Rodon with more Ks.  (8.5)

I'd be thrilled with the same from Lopez, but I think a slight step back, but still a solid back end of the rotation guy. (5.5)

Edited September 24, 2018 by ChiSox59

[ChiSoxJon]

By the end of 2019 we'll know what we have with this trio

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Rodon 6.5 - The lack of K's really worries me, because he's always been a high strikeout guy. I'm willing to give him a pass and chalk it up to being off for so long with the injury he had at the start of the year. He really needs to step up big time and prove he can be the leader of this staff while staying healthy all year.

 

Lopez, 6.5 - I'm pretty sure I picked Lopez to be the Sox biggest disappointment earlier in the year, so I'm pretty happy with the results he's shown this season. I think he's proving he can stick in the rotation, but near the back end.

 

Giolito, 5.5 - I honestly don't know what to make of him yet, but it's nice to see him have moments of success after such a abysmal start. He reminds me so much of Gavin Floyd.

[Jake]

I won't assign a number to anyone, but I feel really good about Lopez. He has really developed this year and I see what he's doing now as something that it was always clear he could do. In aggregate, I see this season as a floor (thinking in terms of ~4.50 FIP moreso than the mid-3 ERA).

Giolito has at least pitched himself into a comfortable slot into the rotation, but I'm seeing him as more of a backend guy once we have a deeper group. I hope he does better, I think it's possible, but my expectations are low.

No idea what to think of Rodon. Maybe a regular offseason and spring training is all he needs. He hasn't had his slider all year and I wouldn't expect him to be good without it.