Dear FO: Harper VS Machado, Soxtalk Will Help You Decide

[Jerksticks]

This thread is only for deciding which of the two would be a smarter signing by the White Sox.  Hopefully we’ll figure it out and alleviate some of the legwork for the FO.  

Criteria to consider:

- Position and how it interacts with current and future White Sox depth at said position

- Marketability 

- General Badassedness

- Price and Value

- Handedness Batting

- 7 to 10 year projection 

- Does one excite you more? Why?

- Any ridiculous personal reasons will definitely be considered  

 

 

I’ll start by making the point that I think Harper is a smarter signing because it almost ensures that the Sox’ OF depth is in fact, outfield depth.   It takes the pressure off of having three young dudes having to produce out there.  Finally, it would allow us to use not only outfield depth, but premium outfield depth to address another position of less depth (3B, C, SS, 1B).  

 

So signing Harper really almost guarantees a second badass player at another position acquired via trade.  It’s really getting 2 players for 1.  

 

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Machado if he goes back to 3rd base , otherwise Harper.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

Harper.

[southsider2k5]

Machado, and it isn't particularly close.

[GreenSox]

Harper

[Dam8610]

Machado, and it's not really that difficult of a decision.

1) He plays 3B, the one position the White Sox appear to have no answer for in this rebuild thus far.

2) He's produced like a franchise caliber middle of the order bat this year and most of the years of his career.

3) Harper is going to make more, and IMO carries more risk. He's had an awful 2018, he's produced more than 5 WAR in a season exactly once, and I feel like he's getting the attention he is on name recognition. I'd rather sign the 5-6 WAR bat to a 10 year, $350 million deal than the 4-5 WAR bat to a 10 year, $400+ million deal just because the latter is a lefty power hitter with name recognition.

[Jose Abreu]

27 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Machado, and it's not really that difficult of a decision.

1) He plays 3B, the one position the White Sox appear to have no answer for in this rebuild thus far.

2) He's produced like a franchise caliber middle of the order bat this year and most of the years of his career.

3) Harper is going to make more, and IMO carries more risk. He's had an awful 2018, he's produced more than 5 WAR in a season exactly once, and I feel like he's getting the attention he is on name recognition. I'd rather sign the 5-6 WAR bat to a 10 year, $350 million deal than the 4-5 WAR bat to a 10 year, $400+ million deal just because the latter is a lefty power hitter with name recognition.

What's "awful" about a .391 OBP, 34 home runs, and a 133 wRC+?

[Dam8610]

25 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

What's "awful" about a .391 OBP, 34 home runs, and a 133 wRC+?

He's apparently turned it around a bit more than I knew. Still, he's at 4 WAR, Machado's at 6 WAR.

[reiks12]

OP is Hahn

[Real]

so done with bringing over NL hitters

[SoxAce]

38 minutes ago, Real said:

so done with bringing over NL hitters

What.. the left handed hitting players from the NL playing for Washington not catching your eye? I mean what can possibly go wrong?

[Lillian]

Is there a third option? How about neither? I'm not inclined to favor spending that much money on one player, when the front office doesn't yet know what they have. Since most everyone here seems to feel that the loss of Kopech, means that they won't be competitive next year, maybe it makes sense to just play out the season, and see what they have for 2020, when that highly vaunted competitive window opens.

The hints have already been dropped, that Moncada is headed for 3B, to make room for Madrigal, whose only real viable position is 2ND. Anderson is pegged as the SS, for the foreseeable future.

That crowded outfield poses lots of questions. Eloy and Robert can both reasonably be expected to be there and to be core pieces. That only leaves one corner outfield spot for one of Adolfo, Rutherford, Walker, Basabe, or Gonzalez, assuming of course, that Avi is not retained, which might be a mistake.

It looks like they might have found a LH DH in Palka. A second season, and a full one, might reveal what they really have in him. Will he turn out to be a flash in the pan, or a guy who hits 35 to 40 Home runs, with lots of RBI's, including in clutch situations?

First Base? My guess is that Eloy ends up there, ultimately. It might be a good spot for Palka, if he becomes part of the future. It's the easiest position to fill. There are always decent hitting first basemen, who can provide adequate defense. Many here have suggested that Abreu wouldn't even net a couple of good prospects. If a hole should emerge there, it shouldn't be that difficult to fill it. 

Catching now has some depth, with Collins, Narvaez, Zavala and maybe Adley Rutschman, especially if the Sox end up with the 3RD pick. You can even include Smith. I imagine that they will trade Castillo.

The way today's pitchers all seem to be made out of fragile glass arms, that break when put under the tremendous strain of pitching 6 innings, every 5TH day, maybe the front office should just spend all of the money on pitchers, in hopes that they can find 5 starters, who can survive a full season.

At any rate, I think it's too soon to commit to a 10 year, $350 to $400 million contract for one player, to fill a hole, which may not exist. 

 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Lillian

[Dick Allen]

I’d take either one. 

[Capital G]

Machado over Harper.

But I would take Corbin over either.

I am guessing eventually our infield will look like this:

Abreu (if gone Palka?)

Madrigal

Anderson

Moncada

 

We have a lot of OF depth coming up in regards to Harper.

 

We dont have any sure studs at SP which Corbin is and would come cheaper than either Machado or Harper. IMO SP > *

[Kyyle23]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yours truly,

WBWSF

[Flash]

2 hours ago, Lillian said:

Is there a third option? How about neither? I'm not inclined to favor spending that much money on one player, when the front office doesn't yet know what they have. Since most everyone here seems to feel that the loss of Kopech, means that they won't be competitive next year, maybe it makes sense to just play out the season, and see what they have for 2020, when that highly vaunted competitive window opens.

The hints have already been dropped, that Moncada is headed for 3B, to make room for Madrigal, whose only real viable position is 2ND. Anderson is pegged as the SS, for the foreseeable future.

That crowded outfield poses lots of questions. Eloy and Robert can both reasonably be expected to be there and to be core pieces. That only leaves one corner outfield spot for one of Adolfo, Rutherford, Walker, Basabe, or Gonzalez, assuming of course, that Avi is not retained, which might be a mistake.

It looks like they might have found a LH DH in Palka. A second season, and a full one, might reveal what they really have in him. Will he turn out to be a flash in the pan, or a guy who hits 35 to 40 Home runs, with lots of RBI's, including in clutch situations?

First Base? My guess is that Eloy ends up there, ultimately. It might be a good spot for Palka, if he becomes part of the future. It's the easiest position to fill. There are always decent hitting first basemen, who can provide adequate defense. Many here have suggested that Abreu wouldn't even net a couple of good prospects. If a hole should emerge there, it shouldn't be that difficult to fill it. 

Catching now has some depth, with Collins, Narvaez, Zavala and maybe Adley Rutschman, especially if the Sox end up with the 3RD pick. You can even include Smith. I imagine that they will trade Castillo.

The way today's pitchers all seem to be made out of fragile glass arms, that break when put under the tremendous strain of pitching 6 innings, every 5TH day, maybe the front office should just spend all of the money on pitchers, in hopes that they can find 5 starters, who can survive a full season.

At any rate, I think it's too soon to commit to a 10 year, $350 to $400 million contract for one player, to fill a hole, which may not exist. 

 

Lillian - I share your perspective. I might add that a player I have followed throughout the year and who will likely be available in trade is Greg Byrd, 1B NYY. He has had an awful season due, in part, to injuries. The emergence of Voit as a power hitting 1B renders Byrd redundant. I think he is a great change of scenery candidate. He can platoon LH DH and 1B (he is said to be a very good with the glove). If he can rebound and stay healthy, at 26 he might be a viable successor to Abreu (Jose can still DH and spot start at 1B). Guessing he be had for a couple of our fringe 40 man candidates. 

[Dick Allen]

The one huge problem you have signing what you believe to be long term pieces in free agency is opt outs. All the big guys get them now. So what seems to be a long term piece might be gone in a couple of years.

Harper, Machado, Arenado....will all have opt outs and maybe even several each. So, I don’t know how they can be considered long term pieces.

 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The one huge problem you have signing what you believe to be long term pieces in free agency is opt outs. All the big guys get them now. So what seems to be a long term piece might be gone in a couple of years.

Harper, Machado, Arenado....will all have opt outs and maybe even several each. So, I don’t know how they can be considered long term pieces.

 

After the Kopech injury I would not offer any opt outs at sooner than 4 years and if that's a deal breaker for these guys I walk away. I'd rather spend more money next year or the year after than pay one of these guys for only 2 or 3 years.

Frankly, that would be more important to me than which of these 2 I would sign.

[ron883]

Something else to consider is that the White Sox can afford to frontload a contract more than any other teams. Money is always better now rather than later. This may be appealing enough to push an opt out to later in the contract. 

[SonofaRoache]

Machado is the better team fit, but Harper brings some superstarness to this team. People will remember who the Sox are with Harper, and others will want to play here. He legitimizes our side of town. 

[Jack Parkman]

52 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

After the Kopech injury I would not offer any opt outs at sooner than 4 years and if that's a deal breaker for these guys I walk away. I'd rather spend more money next year or the year after than pay one of these guys for only 2 or 3 years.

Frankly, that would be more important to me than which of these 2 I would sign.

Then you're not getting any top FA. You have to offer the opt-out 2-3 years into the contract, otherwise it is an absolute non-starter from the player's perspective. Especially with guys that young. If they're not willing to do that, then stop lying to yourself and saying the Sox have a snowball's chance in hell to sign a top FA. When it comes to FA, the Sox best bet is to sign a 29-30 year old FA and hope he stays productive through his mid 30s. 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Thad Bosley]

20/20 vision for 2020: 

Machado at third, Madrigal at second, joining Anderson in the infield, with Moncada in right alongside Robert in center and Eloy in left.  The return of Kopech, joined by Cease, with Rodon as the ace.

Could be formidable, so go get Machado.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, Fan O'Faust said:

20/20 vision for 2020: 

Machado at third, Madrigal at second, joining Anderson in the infield, with Moncada in right alongside Robert in center and Eloy in left.  The return of Kopech, joined by Cease, with Rodon as the ace.

Could be formidable, so go get Machado.  

I'd be shocked if Robert is here in 2020. The Sox have had him for 2 years now and he can't stay healthy and is getting hardly any AB's. He'll need at least 2 years of no injuries years just to make it to AAA and that's if he performs well and doesn't have to repeat a level. He'd have to put up some Eloy like stats just to be called up in Sept of 2020.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

After the Kopech injury I would not offer any opt outs at sooner than 4 years and if that's a deal breaker for these guys I walk away. I'd rather spend more money next year or the year after than pay one of these guys for only 2 or 3 years.

Frankly, that would be more important to me than which of these 2 I would sign.

So it's Trout of bust in 2021 because that FA class isn't exactly brimming with superstars. It's this winter or next  looking at it realistic. If you do nothing this year you better make damn sure you get what you want in 2020 and that just make the odds even worse. I have been saying that forever. Like Hahn said you have no control over when these guys become available . You wait too long and you miss the boat.

The Sox have 2 years to get rid of a high K, low OBP bad defense ,bad starting and relief pitching team and everyone wonders why there's so many pessimistic posts. When either Tim Anderson or Palka is your team MVP you have a shit ton of work to do. Then you see posts like we need better defensive pitchers. Yea we do but lets put that like 20th on the list of what we need like way behind pitchers who can actually pitch. Some times I wonder how smart our fans really are.

[Balta1701]

38 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

So it's Trout of bust in 2021 because that FA class isn't exactly brimming with superstars. It's this winter or next  looking at it realistic. If you do nothing this year you better make damn sure you get what you want in 2020 and that just make the odds even worse. I have been saying that forever. Like Hahn said you have no control over when these guys become available . You wait too long and you miss the boat.

The Sox have 2 years to get rid of a high K, low OBP bad defense ,bad starting and relief pitching team and everyone wonders why there's so many pessimistic posts. When either Tim Anderson or Palka is your team MVP you have a shit ton of work to do. Then you see posts like we need better defensive pitchers. Yea we do but lets put that like 20th on the list of what we need like way behind pitchers who can actually pitch. Some times I wonder how smart our fans really are.

 

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Then you're not getting any top FA. You have to offer the opt-out 2-3 years into the contract, otherwise it is an absolute non-starter from the player's perspective. Especially with guys that young. If they're not willing to do that, then stop lying to yourself and saying the Sox have a snowball's chance in hell to sign a top FA. When it comes to FA, the Sox best bet is to sign a 29-30 year old FA and hope he stays productive through his mid 30s. 

What is the point of signing a guy for this roster with a 2-3 year opt out? If 2021 is our only legit competitive season out of the next 3, and you offer a 2 year opt out you've basically wasted the money, and if you offer a 3 year opt out then you're paying what, $80 million for what the guy does in 2021? 

If someone's going to offer a 2 year opt out, I'll just sign the guy after 2020.