Dear FO: Harper VS Machado, Soxtalk Will Help You Decide

[Southwest Sider]

1 hour ago, skooch said:

  If you're the player it's fantastic. But why would  the team want to offer such a contract? He's getting his huge payday plus you're writing him an insurance policy for free. Perhaps that's the way the market for superstar free agents works these days but I'll be amazed if the Sox choose to participate in it in this fashion. 

 Also, I don't believe the Sox are close enough to contention where a 3/4 year opt out makes much sense for the team. He might be around at the beginning of the window but will almost certainly be gone shortly thereafter.  I'll be very surprised if any of this happens.

The team offers the contract not because they would want to, but because they have to. From a negotiation standpoint, you 100% lose on signing the player if your offer has no opt-out. If you really want the player, for even just a few years, you're gonna have to include the opt-out.

The rub is going to be, what year(s) will there be an opt-out?

I hope that no team offers it in year 3, and the earliest I hope any team offers an opt out is after year 4. That would be ideal for the Sox.

I really hope that, if the Sox are serious about signing one of these guys, they have a very strong argument on selling the Sox to them. I could see many of the teams involved being in the same ballpark in terms of money/years/opt out on a contract, so the ultimate decision will be on where does the player want to go?

Of course, if the money doesn't get into an unprecedented yearly amount in the bidding war, the Sox could just decide to blow everyone away to show the player how badly they really want them there. That would be a fun one.

This will be a very interesting offseason. Been looking forward to this for awhile. Now get these stupid playoffs over with so we can get started. 

 

 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

2 hours ago, skooch said:

  If you're the player it's fantastic. But why would  the team want to offer such a contract? He's getting his huge payday plus you're writing him an insurance policy for free. Perhaps that's the way the market for superstar free agents works these days but I'll be amazed if the Sox choose to participate in it in this fashion. 

 Also, I don't believe the Sox are close enough to contention where a 3/4 year opt out makes much sense for the team. He might be around at the beginning of the window but will almost certainly be gone shortly thereafter.  I'll be very surprised if any of this happens.

I'm not singling you out by any means, but this mindset is one of the main reasons why I think the Sox have been bad for so long. The front office is afraid to take any risks in free agency. The most expensive contract they have ever given anyone was $68 million for Jose Abreu, which is chump change in today's game. Even though they were rumored to have been in on ARod and Tanaka back in the day, they have never actually spent significant money on anyone. Even in a best case scenario in which Eloy becomes a superstar, Moncada improves, Kopech comes back from his injury, Cease pans out, etc, I find it hard to believe that this team could be a World Series contender without going out and getting that guy to put them over the top, like the Cubs did with Jon Lester. I would rather risk Machado opting out and having him for 2020, 2021, and 2022 than not going after him at all and trying to fill that hole with stopgaps and wasting the cheap, controllable years of the rest of the core.

Edited October 7, 2018 by Whitesox27

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

I'm not singling you out by any means, but this mindset is one of the main reasons why I think the Sox have been bad for so long. The front office is afraid to take any risks in free agency. The most expensive contract they have ever given anyone was $68 million for Jose Abreu, which is chump change in today's game. Even though they were rumored to have been in on ARod and Tanaka back in the day, they have never actually spent significant money on anyone. Even in a best case scenario in which Eloy becomes a superstar, Moncada improves, Kopech comes back from his injury, Cease pans out, etc, I find it hard to believe that this team could be a World Series contender without going out and getting that guy to put them over the top, like the Cubs did with Jon Lester. I would rather risk Machado opting out and having him for 2020, 2021, and 2022 than not going after him at all and trying to fill that hole with stopgaps and wasting the cheap, controllable years of the rest of the core.

That's a 4 year opt out. I'd be ok with that, but if you're the Phillies or the Dodgers, and you could get him by offering similar money and a 2 year opt out, wouldn't you strongly consider that? Those teams are ready to win right now, we are not, so we can't put one in until after we at least have a shot at competing.

The White Sox clearly, utterly, cannot offer a 2 year or 3 year opt out. They would be better off saving their money than doing anything less than 4 years. 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That's a 4 year opt out. I'd be ok with that, but if you're the Phillies or the Dodgers, and you could get him by offering similar money and a 2 year opt out, wouldn't you strongly consider that? Those teams are ready to win right now, we are not, so we can't put one in until after we at least have a shot at competing.

The White Sox clearly, utterly, cannot offer a 2 year or 3 year opt out. They would be better off saving their money than doing anything less than 4 years. 

Yeah, a 2 or 3 year opt out wouldn't make any sense and I do agree that going to a contender would probably be Machado's preference. However, the Sox can significantly frontload a deal which works to their advantage. They could conceivably make him the highest paid player in baseball on a per year basis over that 4 year period and still have financial wiggle room because of how low the payroll is right now. Ultimately, my point is that Hahn can't sit on his fanny and do nothing. He has to add impact talent in some form this offseason. 

Edited October 7, 2018 by Whitesox27

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

Yeah, a 2 or 3 year opt out wouldn't make any sense and I do agree that going to a contender would probably be Machado's preference. However, the Sox can significantly frontload a deal which works to their advantage. They could conceivably make him the highest paid player in baseball on a per year basis over that 4 year period and still have financial wiggle room because of how low the payroll is right now. Ultimately, my point is that Hahn can't sit on his fanny and do nothing. He has to add impact talent in some form this offseason. 

If these 2 players wind up with contracts that have 2/3 year opt outs...it is worth noting that the White Sox could have a choice between going after Arenado next offseason and going after Harper/Machado in 2 years at a better value.

[Lillian]

Including an opt out is not necessarily a disadvantage to the team. It provides one essential component, ie; it maintains an incentive for the player to continue to strive toward ever greater levels of excellence. The lack of such an incentive is my greatest concern about long term contracts, aside from the obvious issue of paying a player. too late in his career. If the opt out does not conflict with the team's window of contention, it can makes sense, because it keeps the player motivated, as he looks forward to a new, even better possible contract. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Lillian said:

Including an opt out is not necessarily a disadvantage to the team. It provides one essential component, ie; it maintains an incentive for the player to continue to strive toward ever greater levels of excellence. The lack of such an incentive is my greatest concern about long term contracts, aside from the obvious issue of paying a player. too late in his career. If the opt out does not conflict with the team's window of contention, it can makes sense, because it keeps the player motivated, as he looks forward to a new, even better possible contract. 

Somehow I doubt there's much evidence that opt-outs keep players performing at high levels, as for example Heyward is a big flashing red sign saying that doesn't come true.

[skooch]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If these 2 players wind up with contracts that have 2/3 year opt outs...it is worth noting that the White Sox could have a choice between going after Arenado next offseason and going after Harper/Machado in 2 years at a better value.

This.  My problem isn't with taking a chance. I just view that as a way to add one or two final pieces.  I just don't think this team is anywhere near that and may not be for another two years.  I think signing them now would be shortsighted and would ultimately be a mistake.  But,  YMMV.

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, skooch said:

This.  My problem isn't with taking a chance. I just view that as a way to add one or two final pieces.  I just don't think this team is anywhere near that and may not be for another two years.  I think signing them now would be shortsighted and would ultimately be a mistake.  But,  YMMV.

This thread started with RH saying that sometimes you can't pick and choose when a guy hits FA and that's correct...so if we have to sign them now so that we have the player in 3-4 years I'm ok with that, but we can't do that signing and give the early opt out, that just has to be a deal breaker.

 

[Lillian]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Somehow I doubt there's much evidence that opt-outs keep players performing at high levels, as for example Heyward is a big flashing red sign saying that doesn't come true.

I don't pretend to have any evidence, to support the notion. It just seems logical that if a player knows that he is going to be eligible for another contract, he should be more motivated than he would be, if he is playing out the last contract of his career, especially still within his prime. Citing one, or two examples, is not enough data, upon which to draw any generalizations. There are probably anecdotal cases to support either argument. 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

If these 2 players wind up with contracts that have 2/3 year opt outs...it is worth noting that the White Sox could have a choice between going after Arenado next offseason and going after Harper/Machado in 2 years at a better value.

I see what you're getting at, but it's impossible to know what the situation will be 2 years from now. We know for a fact that Harper and Machado will be up for grabs this offseason. That's why they should make their move now. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

I see what you're getting at, but it's impossible to know what the situation will be 2 years from now. We know for a fact that Harper and Machado will be up for grabs this offseason. That's why they should make their move now. 

After Kopech's injury...I'm at the point of saying there's a decent chance that these 2 guys sign for deals that are impossible for us to match, with 2/3 year opt outs. We could have the most money on the table and still lose out on both of them because we won't be ready in 2020, and we can't sign a contract that lets the guy out before year 4. We could "make our move" and still lose both because our situation isn't as good as the one other teams have.

[Dick Allen]

9 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

After Kopech's injury...I'm at the point of saying there's a decent chance that these 2 guys sign for deals that are impossible for us to match, with 2/3 year opt outs. We could have the most money on the table and still lose out on both of them because we won't be ready in 2020, and we can't sign a contract that lets the guy out before year 4. We could "make our move" and still lose both because our situation isn't as good as the one other teams have.

So you have been popping off on this board for months the 2020 White Sox would win over 100 games. Now because of one easy to predict injury, they won’t be ready to win? I know Kopech is a good prospect but is he really 10-12 extra wins good?

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

So you have been popping off on this board for months the 2020 White Sox would win over 100 games. Now because of one easy to predict injury, they won’t be ready to win? I know Kopech is a good prospect but is he really 10-12 extra wins good?

Kopech was a gut punch, the massive struggles of basically everyone else was another, and the injuries up and down the minor leagues was yet another. Kopech isn't 10-12 extra wins good, but there's more than enough setbacks from 2018 to go around.

[SonofaRoache]

14 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This thread started with RH saying that sometimes you can't pick and choose when a guy hits FA and that's correct...so if we have to sign them now so that we have the player in 3-4 years I'm ok with that, but we can't do that signing and give the early opt out, that just has to be a deal breaker.

 

We most certainly can. Adding a Hall of Fame caliber talent is what any opt out years for now. Our front office just needs to do their job to ensure that player stays longer term. A Hall of Fame caliber player can send us from potential division winner to championship contender quickly. See Christian Yelich. In our situation, there may be no other way to acquire this caliber a player. 

[Balta1701]

24 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

We most certainly can. Adding a Hall of Fame caliber talent is what any opt out years for now. Our front office just needs to do their job to ensure that player stays longer term. A Hall of Fame caliber player can send us from potential division winner to championship contender quickly. See Christian Yelich. In our situation, there may be no other way to acquire this caliber a player. 

Huh?

[SonofaRoache]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Huh?

I'm typing from my phone. The first sentence should have read adding a hall of fame talent is worth more than the downside of an early opt out. 

[caulfield12]

Except Yelich can’t be considered THAT good unless he can repeat this level another year...and, fwiw, the Indians already have two huge offensive talents in Lindor and Ramirez, and it still doesn’t mean a thing if they come into the post-season flat from having no competition in the AL Central.

It’s going to take Jimenez being a 900 ops bat and another superstar before they can begin to even consider challenging the Indians.  Or Moncada waking up.  The timing’s not right, and both those guys get opt outs after 2 or 3 years, no way it will be four unless the front loading is off the charts.

And, even with Machado OR Harper, they still might not have enough pitching or offensive firepower to match up with Boston, NYY or Houston.

Of course, they go risk averse yet again and pick the wrong second tier free agents and get stuck at .500 again and they’ll have completely lost an entire generation of potential Sox fans.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, SonofaRoache said:

I'm typing from my phone. The first sentence should have read adding a hall of fame talent is worth more than the downside of an early opt out. 

If the downside is that they're here and playing for 75-80 win teams in 2019 and 2020 while we write $25 million dollar per year checks, and then they leave and we have to fill the position again in 2021, I think it's clearly not worth the downside. 

[SonofaRoache]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If the downside is that they're here and playing for 75-80 win teams in 2019 and 2020 while we write $25 million dollar per year checks, and then they leave and we have to fill the position again in 2021, I think it's clearly not worth the downside. 

In our current situation, our front office cant look at it like this. They have to assume they've put together a nucleus that will ne competitive in 2020 for at least a wild card spot. If this is the case, adding a hall of fame caliber player is a no brainer. Now obviously this rebuild may fail, but they cannot look at things so negatively before it actually does fail. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said:

In our current situation, our front office cant look at it like this. They have to assume they've put together a nucleus that will ne competitive in 2020 for at least a wild card spot. If this is the case, adding a hall of fame caliber player is a no brainer. Now obviously this rebuild may fail, but they cannot look at things so negatively before it actually does fail. 

With how far away from successful they were this year, any path where this team says that they're going to be competitive in 2020 is relying on the "assume everything goes right from here on out" setup, and we've already seen with Kopech that this has not happened. Furthermore, if they make bets to win in 2020, those bets could actively hinder their ability to field a winning team in 2021 (for example, they might turn down a strong offer for Rodon if they though they could win in 2020, but that offer could make them better in 2021 and beyond if they accepted it).

[SonofaRoache]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

With how far away from successful they were this year, any path where this team says that they're going to be competitive in 2020 is relying on the "assume everything goes right from here on out" setup, and we've already seen with Kopech that this has not happened. 

This failure was intentional though. They chose to lose these games and even told us they were gonna suck this year. There is a lot of talent in this organization right now even though a lot of it underwhelmed or got hurt. By 2020 our core guys should be up and we would have plugged our bullpen and roster issues with prospects or free agents. We also would have seen growth from some of these guys. This is how most rebuilds develop, ours is no different. I'm as hard as anyone on our rebuild so I understand the skepticism. At this point however, we have to understand things can go from dark to light in one season. Losing 100 games this year doesn't mean we can't win 81 next year or 95 the year after. Kopech will be fine, it's not the disaster that it feels like. He will win 15 games in 2020, and we can still have a good rotation if he is our 5th best pitcher. 

Edited October 8, 2018 by SonofaRoache

[steveno89]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

With how far away from successful they were this year, any path where this team says that they're going to be competitive in 2020 is relying on the "assume everything goes right from here on out" setup, and we've already seen with Kopech that this has not happened. 

As much as we may want to sign a Harper or Machado, nobody can know how realistic that will be even if the money is there on our side to do so? Sure the Sox should be involved, but to view us as anything more than a dark horse would be foolish against teams like the Yankees/Angels/Dodgers/Red Sox/Cubs. 

I think we will be more active than last season, but I still get the feeling that this offseason will feature mainly bridge type deals to help get us into our competitive window. 2019 is another pretty painful rebuilding year, as the bulk of our minor league talent won't be mlb ready until 2020.  

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, SonofaRoache said:

This failure was intentional though. They chose to lose these games and even told us they were gonna suck this year. There is a lot of talent in this organization right now even though a lot of it underwhelmed or got hurt. By 2020 our core guys should be up and we would have plugged our bullpen and roster issues with prospects or free agents. We also would have seen growth from some of these guys. This is how most rebuilds develop, ours is no different. I'm as hard as anyone on our rebuild so I understand the skepticism. At this point however, we have to understand things can go from dark to light in one season. Losing 100 games this year doesn't mean we can't win 81 next year or 95 the year after. Kopech will be fine, it's not the disaster that it feels like. He will win 15 games in 2020, and we can still have a good rotation if he is our 5th best pitcher. 

Our "Core guys" should not be up by 2020, too many of our core guys are down at Winston-Salem right now and they're A-ballers, they are nearly 2 years away or longer if we do what we did with Eloy for service time, or if they have any setbacks like this season for Robert. Eloy will be a monster and that makes this team better next year if he stays healthier than this year, but what else are we adding? The catchers and Cease should be up by the end 2019, but you can't count on on Collins and Zavala to be difference makers in 2020 since they're catchers. Aside from the young bullpen arms, that's all that will be arriving before 2020. Eloy, Cease, and a couple rookie catchers. That makes this team better than 62 wins, but that's not nearly going to boost them to .500 even if they land a big FA.

On top of that, Kopech will at best be coming off surgery, and I don't expect him to be able to produce big time in 2020 when he's re-finding what he worked on this year. I would be floored if Kopech won 15 games in 2020. The only way we can have a good rotation if he's the 5th best pitcher is if Giolito, Rodon, and Lopez all take huge strides forward in health and quality, and Cease continues with no setbacks. Literally your statement "We can have a good rotation" is a different version of my "if nothing goes wrong", and that's a terrible level to aim your short term plans to meet. 

[SonofaRoache]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Our "Core guys" should not be up by 2020, too many of our core guys are down at Winston-Salem right now and they're A-ballers, they are nearly 2 years away or longer if we do what we did with Eloy for service time, or if they have any setbacks like this season for Robert. Eloy will be a monster and that makes this team better next year if he stays healthier than this year, but what else are we adding? The catchers and Cease should be up by the end 2019, but you can't count on on Collins and Zavala to be difference makers in 2020 since they're catchers. Aside from the young bullpen arms, that's all that will be arriving before 2020. Eloy, Cease, and a couple rookie catchers. That makes this team better than 62 wins, but that's not nearly going to boost them to .500 even if they land a big FA.

On top of that, Kopech will at best be coming off surgery, and I don't expect him to be able to produce big time in 2020 when he's re-finding what he worked on this year. I would be floored if Kopech won 15 games in 2020. The only way we can have a good rotation if he's the 5th best pitcher is if Giolito, Rodon, and Lopez all take huge strides forward in health and quality, and Cease continues with no setbacks. Literally your statement "We can have a good rotation" is a different version of my "if nothing goes wrong", and that's a terrible level to aim your short term plans to meet. 

Well for a rebuild to work things have to go well. We cannot assume at this point however, that everyone will suck and no one will get better. We also can add starting pitching to our rotation via FA or trade. There is no reason not to spend big bucks since our payroll has been so low. We did what we did for Eloy because our window hasn't opened yet. Once 2020 get here guys like Eloy, Cease, Kopech, Rutherford, Robert and Madrigal will all be up. Once your window starts you can call up prospects a little sooner to play in that window. Those guys I listed will be the hypothetical second wave core. We can add a veteran catcher if need be through free agency. We will have a lot of money to spend before 2020. Who knows, maybe we can get 2 positional player upgrades and a good veteran starter. Kopech may be our 4th or 5th starter in 2020 with Rodon, Lopez, Cease all being ahead of him IMO. I've writtien off Giolito but he still has talent. We can also add a good starter to the roster in FA.