Dear FO: Harper VS Machado, Soxtalk Will Help You Decide

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Well for a rebuild to work things have to go well. We cannot assume at this point however, that everyone will suck and no one will get better. We also can add starting pitching to our rotation via FA or trade. There is no reason not to spend big bucks since our payroll has been so low. We did what we did for Eloy because our window hasn't opened yet. Once 2020 get here guys like Eloy, Cease, Kopech, Rutherford, Robert and Madrigal will all be up. Once your window starts you can call up prospects a little sooner to play in that window. Those guys I listed will be the hypothetical second wave core. We can add a veteran catcher if need be through free agency. We will have a lot of money to spend before 2020. Who knows, maybe we can get 2 positional player upgrades and a good veteran starter. Kopech may be our 4th or 5th starter in 2020 with Rodon, Lopez, Cease all being ahead of him IMO. I've writtien off Giolito but he still has talent. We can also add a good starter to the roster in FA. 

Having Rutherford, Robert, and Madrigal up and struggling in 2020, after the team declared publicly to start the season that they are ready to compete, and then having the org throw their hands up at the end of the season and say no one could have predicted that guys who were raced to the big leagues would put up weak numbers is so White Sox that I struggle to come up with any reason why it won't be exactly what happens.

[caulfield12]

23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Having Rutherford, Robert, and Madrigal up and struggling in 2020, after the team declared publicly to start the season that they are ready to compete, and then having the org throw their hands up at the end of the season and say no one could have predicted that guys who were raced to the big leagues would put up weak numbers is so White Sox that I struggle to come up with any reason why it won't be exactly what happens.

OTOH, screwing up a rebuild and it going on perpetually despite having possessed 3 huge assets to dump, the Chicago media market and a division filled with rebuilding or imploding (Twins, maybe even CLE) teams would also be so White Sox.

Did the Cubs, Royals, Astros, Yankees, etc., ever have so many doubts surrounding their position prospects???

We’re looking more like the Twins’ “reload” of the last five years...where they originally spent big on FA pitching (but went after 3 second tier guys) to jump start things, didn’t sign any absolute studs (Mauer excuse) and saw Buxton and Sano essentially fall apart in every way possible.  They went bargain shopping again this offseason, guys like Morrison and Lynn, and it blew up in their faces.  One wild card loss to show for it all.  

This is the nightmare scenario...even worse than the Pirates’ run the last half decade (then dumping the face of the franchise in McCutcheon and Cole turning into Cy Young for another organization.). Unsurprisingly, they mirrored the Sox in attendance for most of the second half.

Edited October 8, 2018 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Or we can look at the Tigers and now the Indians...four year division runs with nothing to show for it but rising payrolls and fan frustration.

(Of course, things go slightly differently in 2016, the Indians win the WS over the Cubs and then have the additional resources to sustain things until at least 2022 or 2023.)

Sure, attendance would be back up to 2-2.25 million...but then what?

Edited October 8, 2018 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

20 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

OTOH, screwing up a rebuild and it going on perpetually despite having possessed 3 huge assets to dump, the Chicago media market and a division filled with rebuilding or imploding (Twins, maybe even CLE) teams would also be so White Sox.

Did the Cubs, Royals, Astros, Yankees, etc., ever have so many doubts surrounding their position prospects???

We’re looking more like the Twins’ “reload” of the last five years...where they originally spent big on FA pitching (but went after 3 second tier guys) to jump start things, didn’t sign any absolute studs (Mauer excuse) and saw Buxton and Sano essentially fall apart in every way possible.  They went bargain shopping again this offseason, guys like Morrison and Lynn, and it blew up in their faces.  One wild card loss to show for it all.  

This is the nightmare scenario...even worse than the Pirates’ run the last half decade (then dumping the face of the franchise in McCutcheon and Cole turning into Cy Young for another organization.). Unsurprisingly, they mirrored the Sox in attendance for most of the second half.

The Royals and Astros, I would say absolutely. The Royals waited for years for Moustakas and Hosmer and Gordon and Cain to break out, and even then it took huge bullpen performances from some guys like Wade Davis (a throw-in starter in the James Shields trade) to really make that team title worthy. The Astros had some hope when they broke out early in 2015, but then they had a rotten 2016 before it all came together. 

[Jose Abreu]

7 hours ago, steveno89 said:

As much as we may want to sign a Harper or Machado, nobody can know how realistic that will be even if the money is there on our side to do so? Sure the Sox should be involved, but to view us as anything more than a dark horse would be foolish against teams like the Yankees/Angels/Dodgers/Red Sox/Cubs. 

Where do those teams even come from? Only the Yankees would theoretically be able to afford one of those guys without having too many luxury tax concerns, but even then the odds are against them.

 

I think this free agency is gonna be way different due to the new luxury tax rules. I think Machado/Harper will end up on the Phillies, Braves, White Sox, etc. Teams like that, and not the typical ones like the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. 

[SCCWS]

My guess is that Machado stays w LA.  Yankees and Dodgers may be players in the market:

New York and the Dodgers are set to reset their base tax rates from 50 percent to 20 percent of the amount over next year's threshold of $206 million. That would put them in better position heading into a free-agent class that includes Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson and potentially Clayton Kershaw, who has the right to opt out of his deal with the Dodgers.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/mlb/la-sp-baseball-notes-20180912-story.html

 

[Bob Sacamano]

25 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Where do those teams even come from? Only the Yankees would theoretically be able to afford one of those guys without having too many luxury tax concerns, but even then the odds are against them.

 

I think this free agency is gonna be way different due to the new luxury tax rules. I think Machado/Harper will end up on the Phillies, Braves, White Sox, etc. Teams like that, and not the typical ones like the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. 

Not sure about that. Both those teams reset their luxury tax penalties this year.

[caulfield12]

At least we’re not the totally irrelevant A’s, Mariners or Rays!!

Now, on to the Josh Donaldson signing ceremony...

Edited October 8, 2018 by caulfield12

[Jose Abreu]

48 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Not sure about that. Both those teams reset their luxury tax penalties this year.

Even if they had zero luxury tax concerns ever, there's really no excuse for teams like us or the Phillies to be outbid by them. If Machado takes less money to play for a bigger market team then that's one thing, but I doubt it. 

[Jerksticks]

3 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

Where do those teams even come from? Only the Yankees would theoretically be able to afford one of those guys without having too many luxury tax concerns, but even then the odds are against them.

 

I think this free agency is gonna be way different due to the new luxury tax rules. I think Machado/Harper will end up on the Phillies, Braves, White Sox, etc. Teams like that, and not the typical ones like the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. 

That would be awesome.  Seems like this year might really be the test of the luxury threshold.  If all the big boys blast through it after resetting, then it isn’t tough enough of a penalty to promote the parity it is striving for.  Can’t wait to see how it all shakes out and I hope you are right.  Baseball would be awesome next year

Edited October 9, 2018 by Jerksticks

[SonofaRoache]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

At least we’re not the totally irrelevant A’s, Mariners or Rays!!

Now, on to the Josh Donaldson signing ceremony...

Actually we are that irrelevant. People actually respect the As, even though they've done nothing of significance. People forgot we won a title. 

[steveno89]

16 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

Where do those teams even come from? Only the Yankees would theoretically be able to afford one of those guys without having too many luxury tax concerns, but even then the odds are against them.

 

I think this free agency is gonna be way different due to the new luxury tax rules. I think Machado/Harper will end up on the Phillies, Braves, White Sox, etc. Teams like that, and not the typical ones like the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. 

As other posters have mentioned, many of those clubs luxury tax penalties have reset, making the overage tax only 20%. The clubs I listed all have plenty of money to chase premium free agents and can sell them a team ready to win now. 

I think the Sox will be involved, but how much so remains a question mark. Sox do have plenty of money to spend if they want to though. At some point we need to go out an acquire a few cornerstone pieces to help supplement the lineup. 

[Jack Parkman]

When Bryce Harper signs with the Nationals, Phillies or Braves and Machado with the Yankees, we can all put this to bed. I wouldn't count out the Cubs for Harper either. After their epic failure this past season, it wouldn't shock me if they sign him. I think Machado to the Yankees is already a done deal. Harper is the question mark, and if he wants to come to Chicago and both teams are involved, you know damn well he's not picking the Sox. The Cubs can afford to give him the opt out that the Sox can't. Everything had to go right this season for the Sox to be a realistic option for those guys. The opposite happened.

Edited October 9, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

When Bryce Harper signs with the Nationals, Phillies or Braves and Machado with the Yankees, we can all put this to bed. I wouldn't count out the Cubs for Harper either. After their epic failure this past season, it wouldn't shock me if they sign him. I think Machado to the Yankees is already a done deal. 

I kind of have him pegged there as well. It just means they wouldn't retain Judge long-term (most likely) but you would have Judge, Stanton, and Machado in the same lineup for what, 4 years? Then they deal Andujar or Didi (1 year left) for pitching.

Edited October 9, 2018 by soxfan2014

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, soxfan2014 said:

I kind of have him pegged there as well. It just means they wouldn't retain Judge long-term (most likely) but you'd would have Judge, Stanton, and Machado in the same lineup for what, 4 years?

Yup. I wouldn't want to give Judge a big FA deal in any event. Just seems like a guy who shines like a great comet. Quickly and Brightly, and then it is gone. 

Edited October 9, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

When Bryce Harper signs with the Nationals, Phillies or Braves and Machado with the Yankees, we can all put this to bed. I wouldn't count out the Cubs for Harper either. After their epic failure this past season, it wouldn't shock me if they sign him. I think Machado to the Yankees is already a done deal. Harper is the question mark, and if he wants to come to Chicago and both teams are involved, you know damn well he's not picking the Sox. The Cubs can afford to give him the opt out that the Sox can't. Everything had to go right this season for the Sox to be a realistic option for those guys. The opposite happened.

Again, I really hope the Cubs sign Harper to a huge deal. 

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I kind of have him pegged there as well. It just means they wouldn't retain Judge long-term (most likely) but you would have Judge, Stanton, and Machado in the same lineup for what, 4 years? Then they deal Andujar or Didi (1 year left) for pitching.

Andujar for Rodon? Anyone else feelin' this?

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Again, I really hope the Cubs sign Harper to a huge deal. 

I really don't think they care. They're trying to maximize their window, they know they're not going to be able to sign all of the hitters they developed, and Lester comes off the books in 2021. 

[Bob Sacamano]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Andujar for Rodon? Anyone else feelin' this?

You have me intrigued.

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I really don't think they care. They're trying to maximize their window, they know they're not going to be able to sign all of the hitters they developed, and Lester comes off the books in 2021. 

They will once they return to luxury tax territory.  This is actually the part of building a team that proved to be the downfall of Theo in Boston.  Free Agency and sustaining.

[Jack Parkman]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

They will once they return to luxury tax territory.  This is actually the part of building a team that proved to be the downfall of Theo in Boston.  Free Agency and sustaining.

That team prints money. I don't think they care about the luxury tax during their window. They will afterwards, as the core group ages though. Rizzo is going to be the guy they let walk. Bryant will be there forever, unless his shoulder is worse than we all think and he becomes the hitting version of Mark Prior. In that case I would LMFAO. If they get Harper, he and Bryant will be there forever. If not, it will be Bryant and Baez. 

Edited October 9, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That team prints money. I don't think they care about the luxury tax during their window. They will afterwards, as the core group ages though. Rizzo is going to be the guy they let walk. Bryant will be there forever, unless his shoulder is worse than we all think and he becomes the hitting version of Mark Prior. In that case I would LMFAO. If they get Harper, he and Bryant will be there forever. If not, it will be Bryant and Baez. 

I agree with most of what you are saying, but I think Rizzo is the one who stays forever.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That team prints money. I don't think they care about the luxury tax during their window. They will afterwards, as the core group ages though. Rizzo is going to be the guy they let walk. Bryant will be there forever, unless his shoulder is worse than we all think and he becomes the hitting version of Mark Prior. In that case I would LMFAO. If they get Harper, he and Bryant will be there forever. If not, it will be Bryant and Baez. 

That team is also one of the deepest in debt teams in MLB.  There is a ceiling there.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That team is also one of the deepest in debt teams in MLB.  There is a ceiling there.

They have do do the cost-benefit analyisis. With as much money as that team brings in, it is hard to see them still owing money by 2030. They were probably only able to get that loan because of the ridiculous amount of profit that team makes. 

Edited October 9, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

They have do do the cost-benefit analyisis. With as much money as that team brings in, it is hard to see them still owing money by 2030. They were probably only able to get that loan because of the ridiculous amount of profit that team makes. 

Why?  What are the terms of the deal?