Dear FO: Harper VS Machado, Soxtalk Will Help You Decide

[wrathofhahn]

No thanks to Manchado if he can't bother to hustle in his walk year how do you think he'll play once he gets his money.

That guy has next MLB worst contract written all over him.

[turnin' two]

8 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

No thanks to Manchado if he can't bother to hustle in his walk year how do you think he'll play once he gets his money.

That guy has next MLB worst contract written all over him.

Now there is a competition.  Cano?  Heyward?  Pujols? Davis?  Cabrera? Darvish? Ellsbury?

[caulfield12]

Has to be Davis.

[turnin' two]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Has to be Davis.

Yeah.  His year this year was... well... yesh.

[Lip Man 1]

57 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Yeah.  His year this year was... well... yesh.

Positively Adam Dunn like.

[wrathofhahn]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Has to be Davis.

Yep, but I was referring to the next big contract not the worst existing one. Davis though of the group easily takes the cake not just because he's a 1B making over 20+ million which shouldn't have happened even if he continued his 800-850 ish ways.

But it's literally because he was healthy. He was so bad he actually hurt his team at historic levels because he was healthy Darvish got injured and never really pitched but there has to be some optimism he'll return to form once he gets healthy. Davis can't play in the ML but is making too much money not to.

[Donaldo]

3 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

No thanks to Manchado if he can't bother to hustle in his walk year how do you think he'll play once he gets his money.

I heard that Jim Palmer and a few Oriole players have described Machado as a lazy player... I don't want him.

9 minutes ago, Tony said:

The Mariners have sucked but not because of Cano.

Pujols isn't the reason the Angels are mediocre, and the Cubs were a better  team before Heyward and Darvish.

That being said, those are all TERRIBLE contracts.

[Lillian]

Although I prefer Harper to Machado, I continue to lean toward neither. Why not spend the same money for 2 or 3 key players, on shorter deals? A left handed bat, a starting pitcher and an elite closer, all on 3 to 5 year deals, should be obtainable, for the same financial investment, with less risk. Now, who could qualify as candidates, over the next 2 years? I don't know. Please, someone tell me. 

Edited October 18, 2018 by Lillian

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, Lillian said:

Although I prefer Harper to Machado, I continue to lean toward neither. Why not spend the same money for 2 or 3 key players, on shorter deals? A left handed bat, a starting pitcher and an elite closer, all on 3 to 5 year deals, should be obtainable, for the same financial investment, with less risk. Now, who could qualify as candidates, over the next 2 years? I don't know. Please, someone tell me. 

Signing a starting pitcher is a terrible idea until Rodon is tradeable. Until we know for sure that one of them has flopped or has been moved, then right now our 2020 starting rotation should be Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, Cease, and Kopech. They're already in our system, they're already under our control, and we've put a ton of work into all of them. We might throw our hands up and say that Giolito just can't cut it, but we won't be doing that until the end of this year at the very earliest. Signing a $20 million+ free agent like Corbin or Kershaw would just block the assets we already have, and if some of them do develop well that will remove the need for the big money guy. We need pitchers on 1 year deals and nothing else. 

Others might make the same argument about the bullpen at this point, that adding in an elite closer when we're sitting on 5-6 power bullpen arms in the minors is a terrible idea for now. I'm less confident in our bullpen arms, but I would also say that I'd much rather give a chance to the guys we have to develop them than spend big money on that role right now as well.

We have a ton of depth at these positions, now we need to keep working to develop them into something before we cast them aside with a big money acquisition in their way.

[Eminor3rd]

3 hours ago, Lillian said:

Although I prefer Harper to Machado, I continue to lean toward neither. Why not spend the same money for 2 or 3 key players, on shorter deals? A left handed bat, a starting pitcher and an elite closer, all on 3 to 5 year deals, should be obtainable, for the same financial investment, with less risk. Now, who could qualify as candidates, over the next 2 years? I don't know. Please, someone tell me. 

The unique thing about Harper/machado is their age and trajectory. There aren’t many cases where top-end free agents can reliably be expected to produce at a peak level for five or six seasons after the signing, which fits the White Sox need of flexibility in timeline. If they spend now, it needs to be on something foundational — talent “in the bank” that can be added to. 

If we were in the verge of contention, I would agree with you and I think you have a great point. It’s just that free agents generally need to be the last thing added, simply because the shelf life is so immediate. 

[Lillian]

20 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

The unique thing about Harper/machado is their age and trajectory. There aren’t many cases where top-end free agents can reliably be expected to produce at a peak level for five or six seasons after the signing, which fits the White Sox need of flexibility in timeline. If they spend now, it needs to be on something foundational — talent “in the bank” that can be added to. 

If we were in the verge of contention, I would agree with you and I think you have a great point. It’s just that free agents generally need to be the last thing added, simply because the shelf life is so immediate. 

That is precisely why I said; "over the next two years". If we are not on the verge of contention, within that time frame, this rebuild will have failed. My point is that I would rather use the financial resources to acquire, or retain, 2 or 3 players, for a shorter period of time, rather than one player, on a 10 year commitment.

[Eminor3rd]

10 minutes ago, Lillian said:

That is precisely why I said; "over the next two years". If we are not on the verge of contention, within that time frame, this rebuild will have failed. My point is that I would rather use the financial resources to acquire, or retain, 2 or 3 players, for a shorter period of time, rather than one player, on a 10 year commitment.

If you think there’s enough talent in the org to get to the verge of contention over the next two years alone, then you have a good argument. I think a lot of us aren’t as sure, or at least feel that adding a guy like Harper/Machado/Arenado helps enough to be worth the loss on flexibility later. 

i don’t know where I sit, honestly. 

Edited October 18, 2018 by Eminor3rd

[SCCWS]

43 minutes ago, Lillian said:

That is precisely why I said; "over the next two years". If we are not on the verge of contention, within that time frame, this rebuild will have failed. My point is that I would rather use the financial resources to acquire, or retain, 2 or 3 players, for a shorter period of time, rather than one player, on a 10 year commitment.

I think 2 years is too soon. Some prospects arrive ready to play and some take a while. Going into next season, are you confident that our MLB rebuild pieces( Anderson, Moncada, Rodon,Gio. Lopez) will be solid players?  Anderson continues to show improvement and he has over 1,500 AB.  Moncada, Rodon Gio and Lopez all had roller-coaster stretches this season.  I think Rodon  jumps up a tier next year but he could also drop back based on his last month.  Eloy looks like he will be a star when he arrives but after him most of the pieces will probably take 2-3 years at the MLB level to develop like Anderson has. 

 I think a good example is the Boston outfield in these playoffs. Betts is a stud in year 4. Benintendi continues to get better in Year 2 and Bradley who may have been the most hyped in the minors is just starting to display his offensive talent in year 5. 

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

I think 2 years is too soon. Some prospects arrive ready to play and some take a while. Going into next season, are you confident that our MLB rebuild pieces( Anderson, Moncada, Rodon,Gio. Lopez) will be solid players?  Anderson continues to show improvement and he has over 1,500 AB.  Moncada, Rodon Gio and Lopez all had roller-coaster stretches this season.  I think Rodon  jumps up a tier next year but he could also drop back based on his last month.  Eloy looks like he will be a star when he arrives but after him most of the pieces will probably take 2-3 years at the MLB level to develop like Anderson has. 

 I think a good example is the Boston outfield in these playoffs. Betts is a stud in year 4. Benintendi continues to get better in Year 2 and Bradley who may have been the most hyped in the minors is just starting to display his offensive talent in year 5. 

Prior to Kopech's injury, if we had him as an ace putting up 5+ WAR at the top of the rotation, I could have seen us being able to make a wild card run in 2020. Some breakouts from Moncada or Gio or Lopez, the catchers being up, some development from the bullpen, Rodon no longer has to be looked at like the ace he isn't, maybe enough people stay healthy for them to make a legit run. With Kopech in rehab mode that season, and I expect him to take some time for him to find the feel of his pitches again (see: the first half of this season), then I have to think a healthy version of that team is around .500 but it would take huge jumps forwards by Moncada and Lopez/Gio for them to have a shot at the wild card, huge jumps that I don't expect.

In 2021, the rest of that outfield from Winston-Salem last year arrives, Kopech is back to full health, the catchers are no longer rookies, and maybe we have someone else like Madrigal or Burger who can fill a role. Even if those OFs aren't all able to find spots, some of them could be traded to fill in a hole elsewhere. After Kopech's arm went down, it's 2021 or bust.

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Prior to Kopech's injury, if we had him as an ace putting up 5+ WAR at the top of the rotation, I could have seen us being able to make a wild card run in 2020. Some breakouts from Moncada or Gio or Lopez, the catchers being up, some development from the bullpen, Rodon no longer has to be looked at like the ace he isn't, maybe enough people stay healthy for them to make a legit run. With Kopech in rehab mode that season, and I expect him to take some time for him to find the feel of his pitches again (see: the first half of this season), then I have to think a healthy version of that team is around .500 but it would take huge jumps forwards by Moncada and Lopez/Gio for them to have a shot at the wild card, huge jumps that I don't expect.

In 2021, the rest of that outfield from Winston-Salem last year arrives, Kopech is back to full health, the catchers are no longer rookies, and maybe we have someone else like Madrigal or Burger who can fill a role. Even if those OFs aren't all able to find spots, some of them could be traded to fill in a hole elsewhere. After Kopech's arm went down, it's 2021 or bust.

Wild card run in 2020 if Kopech wasn't hurt? you have been saying 102 wins for months.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

Wild card run in 2020 if Kopech wasn't hurt? you have been saying 102 wins for months.

Yup, and then this season happened. As body after body went down, and player after player hit the big leagues and struggled or clearly showed that they were rushed, that became impossible. And then Kopech's arm knocked us out of even talking about the wild card that year. Take from that what you will - I was wrong, these guys needed more work than I thought...and now I'm considering the possibility that maybe they just dramatically mis-scouted or mis-coached them all. 

[SonofaRoache]

1 hour ago, SCCWS said:

I think 2 years is too soon. Some prospects arrive ready to play and some take a while. Going into next season, are you confident that our MLB rebuild pieces( Anderson, Moncada, Rodon,Gio. Lopez) will be solid players?  Anderson continues to show improvement and he has over 1,500 AB.  Moncada, Rodon Gio and Lopez all had roller-coaster stretches this season.  I think Rodon  jumps up a tier next year but he could also drop back based on his last month.  Eloy looks like he will be a star when he arrives but after him most of the pieces will probably take 2-3 years at the MLB level to develop like Anderson has. 

 I think a good example is the Boston outfield in these playoffs. Betts is a stud in year 4. Benintendi continues to get better in Year 2 and Bradley who may have been the most hyped in the minors is just starting to display his offensive talent in year 5. 

Then the better sign a few big time talents to take pressure off the young guys. 2020 should be the fan base's deadline to look like a team to be reckoned with shortly. 2021 will be year 5 of our rebuild, no excuses to not be competing for a championship by then. 

[bubba phillips]

3 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

Then the better sign a few big time talents to take pressure off the young guys. 2020 should be the fan base's deadline to look like a team to be reckoned with shortly. 2021 will be year 5 of our rebuild, no excuses to not be competing for a championship by then. 

Conservatively, it looks there will be about 18 teams competing for a championship in 2021. Seven or 8 teams are in the middle of a rebuild, 3 or 4 have had a successful recent rebuild and will be set for the next few years at least, and then there's about 6 teams that are perpetually competing for a championship because their franchises were never run into the ground and therefore never needed to rebuild. 

The realistic view, in my opinion, is that we should be competing for a division championship.  And even that is not guaranteed, if the injuries keep piling up.  Also, this rebuild is not happening in a vacuum---we can't assume that we will greatly improve and the other teams in the division will decline, stagnate, or improve at a much slower rate than the White Sox. 

[ChiSox59]

On 10/17/2018 at 3:06 PM, soxfan2014 said:

"Plays with a chip on his shoulder"? That's how you describea guy who says he doesn't want to hustle?

Wasn't referring to the lack of hustle as much as the plays people have been calling "dirty". 

[Bob Sacamano]

12 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Wasn't referring to the lack of hustle as much as the plays people have been calling "dirty". 

Dirty would be the correct term for sure.

Edited October 19, 2018 by soxfan2014

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, soxfan2014 said:

Dirty would be the correct term for sure.

Meh.  The game of baseball has gotten so soft.  You used to get your ass sat on the bench if you didn't slide hard into 2nd base.  The Aguilar deal was a little dirty, but its not like he stomped on his ankle.  Pretty tame as far as dirty goes.  

I may be biased - I grew up playing hockey, so I always played baseball with an aggressive mentality.  I wasn't scared to railroad a catcher if he was in my way, or slide hard into 2nd base.  So maybe I like seeing those things myself.  Clearly that stuff isn't allowed in the majors any longer, but I don't particularly like how soft the game has gotten.  Machado seems like a bit of douche, no doubt, and his comments about hustle are eyeroll worthy, but I'd still take that guy on my team 10/10 times.  

[Baker]

Las Vegas has some odds on who will sign Machado/ Harper. The top 10 were listed and the Sox weren’t on either list. Texas/Giants were 10th at 5% chance for either. Probably less than 1% chance either one comes here. I hope some team grabs them soon so we can move on. 

[Eminor3rd]

50 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Meh.  The game of baseball has gotten so soft.  You used to get your ass sat on the bench if you didn't slide hard into 2nd base.  The Aguilar deal was a little dirty, but its not like he stomped on his ankle.  Pretty tame as far as dirty goes.  

I may be biased - I grew up playing hockey, so I always played baseball with an aggressive mentality.  I wasn't scared to railroad a catcher if he was in my way, or slide hard into 2nd base.  So maybe I like seeing those things myself.  Clearly that stuff isn't allowed in the majors any longer, but I don't particularly like how soft the game has gotten.  Machado seems like a bit of douche, no doubt, and his comments about hustle are eyeroll worthy, but I'd still take that guy on my team 10/10 times.  

I agree. And I am almost always on the progressive side of stuff like this. I got ripped a bit on fangraphs for thinking the Aguilar situation was massively overblown.

I mean, Aguilar WAS in the way, everyone who has ever played first has been coached not to cover like that, because it leads to dangerous situations. I’m not saying that machado should have kicked him, but if he actually wanted to hurt him he would have spiked him, which would have required less effort and likely could have actually looked like an accident.

To me, that kick, while Ill-advised, was more like a hard tag on a runner who is dicking around with the pitcher on the basepaths, or an inside fastball to push a guy off the plate than it is like an intentional beaning or something. At some point you have to be physical to assert your right to the space you need to be. I wouldn’t have done it, and I get why the players involved are angry, but I think that’s about as far as this one should have gone. 

Absolutely no way I’m changing my opinion of signing the guy over this. 

[Bob Sacamano]

11 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I agree. And I am almost always on the progressive side of stuff like this. I got ripped a bit on fangraphs for thinking the Aguilar situation was massively overblown.

I mean, Aguilar WAS in the way, everyone who has ever played first has been coached not to cover like that, because it leads to dangerous situations. I’m not saying that machado should have kicked him, but if he actually wanted to hurt him he would have spiked him, which would have required less effort and likely could have actually looked like an accident.

To me, that kick, while Ill-advised, was more like a hard tag on a runner who is dicking around with the pitcher on the basepaths, or an inside fastball to push a guy off the plate than it is like an intentional beaning or something. At some point you have to be physical to assert your right to the space you need to be. I wouldn’t have done it, and I get why the players involved are angry, but I think that’s about as far as this one should have gone. 

Absolutely no way I’m changing my opinion of signing the guy over this. 

This isn't what did it for me. His hustle (or lack thereof) and general attitude is what has changed my mind. He 100% seems like the type of player who will just coast after getting the big pay day, especially if the Dodgers win the World Series this year.

Edited October 19, 2018 by soxfan2014

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

This isn't what did it for me. His hustle (or lack thereof) and general attitude is what has changed my mind. He 100% seems like the type of player who will just coast after getting the big pay day, especially if Dodgers win the World Series this year.

That is one thing I would be a little worried about. But this guy and Harper are opportunities that don't come around very often. I think it's such a long shot, but if you are ever going to spend big on a free agent, it's on guys their age. Other than that, you are playing with fire. Production really drops off in the early 30s these days.