2018 Post Mortem

[Jack Parkman]

This was, as Rick Hahn suggested, the most difficult year of the rebuild. 

However, I don't know how this season could have realistically gone any worse. Besides EVERYTHING possible going against the Sox, this season was an unmitigated disaster. 

At this point last year it was easy to be optimistic about their future, now it is extremely difficult. 

I'm going to add an assessment of all of the Sox major rebuild pieces in another post in this thread.

Edited September 29, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Jack Parkman]

The few bright spots:

Jimenez is as good as advertised

Cease was able to increase his innings, dominate, and stay off the DL

Luis Gonzalez and Luis Basabe  look like decent prospects

Lopez looks, at the very least, like a decent back end of the rotation starter, with the potential to be a mid-rotation guy. 

Palka looks like he could be something. What, I don't know. 

All of the crap that happened this year:

Kopech TJS

Burger lost a year and a half of development time to injuries

Hansen got injured and looks more like his senior season at OU rather than the guy who led the minors in strikeouts in 2017

Dunning had an elbow injury that has a non-zero chance to end with TJS in ST 2019

Robert missed the majority of the season with injuries, and hit 0 HR in 6 weeks of game action

Rutherford still doesn't have any power

They spent the 4th overall pick on Madrigal, who might be nothing more than a glorified singles hitter

Zack Collins isn't a catcher, which probably makes him a fringe prospect at best. Not good for a 10th pick overall. 

Zack Burdi came back from TJS throwing 93-95 instead of hovering around triple digits. Not good for his future prospects to be an MLB pitcher

Giolito looks like a bust at this point...I had really high hopes for him this season, but at some point you have to call a spade a spade

Moncada is a huge question mark at best, and could be on his way to joining Giolito in the bust category. The same comment about Giolito could be said here. 

Avi looked more like the 2016 version

Abreu had the worst season of his career

For the majority of the season James Shields was the Sox best starter. 

All of the minor league bullpen arms that looked promising came up and got torched. (Hamiliton, Burr, Vieira) 

At this point, 2020 looks like a pipedream at best, and while it is too early to write the whole thing off as a failure, if things stay the same in 2019 you seriously have to consider an organizational housecleaning. 

In conclusion, it seems like in the most likely scenario we end up right back where we were in 2016 with about 4-5 decent players and a bunch of crap, maxing out at 75-78 wins, but without the benefit of the great contracts that made this "talent" acquirable. I don't think the Cubs or Astros minor league talent as a whole ever looked this questionable. We all thought we were going to see the golden age of White Sox baseball coming up. Now it looks horrible. They're losing around 100 games with no end in sight. 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[SonofaRoache]

I have faith a lot of these guys will grow. As it stands right now, they early returns are underwhelming. Next year will be the tell all to who we can count on and who we should begin to write off. 

[TheTruth05]

It was a very tough year. That being said, way too much pessimism going around the board right now. I feel 100x better right now after this lowly season than that garbage 2016 season when we were supposed to "compete". That by far was worse.

[flavum]

1 minute ago, TheTruth05 said:

It was a very tough year. That being said, way too much pessimism going around the board right now. I feel 100x better right now after this lowly season than that garbage 2016 season when we were supposed to "compete". That by far was worse.

Agreed with this. Things could have been better in the minors. 2017 was much better than 2018, but you can’t script baseball. The “critical mass” needs to continue this offseason, and then we need Adolfo to get back on the field, Burger playing, Robert to play 250 minor league games the next couple years. 

It’s going to be an interesting offseason. Could be some trades that freak some people out too.

[TheTruth05]

1 minute ago, flavum said:

Agreed with this. Things could have been better in the minors. 2017 was much better than 2018, but you can’t script baseball. The “critical mass” needs to continue this offseason, and then we need Adolfo to get back on the field, Burger playing, Robert to play 250 minor league games the next couple years. 

It’s going to be an interesting offseason. Could be some trades that freak some people out too.

Thank you, It's a full rebuild. This isn't a linear thing, it's a time/experience/health thing to find out what we have. No way to declare anything yet until these guys get their fair shot at the majors. Prospects put it together, most will fail. Sox have to spend money and they know that. We'll see how much things change ST 2019.

[whitesoxbrad]

26 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The few bright spots:

Jimenez is as good as advertised

Cease was able to increase his innings, dominate, and stay off the DL

Luis Gonzalez and Luis Basabe  look like decent prospects

Lopez looks, at the very least, like a decent back end of the rotation starter, with the potential to be a mid-rotation guy. 

Palka looks like he could be something. What, I don't know. 

All of the crap that happened this year:

Kopech TJS

Burger lost a year and a half of development time to injuries

Hansen got injured and looks more like his senior season at OU rather than the guy who led the minors in strikeouts in 2017

Dunning had an elbow injury that has a non-zero chance to end with TJS in ST 2019

Robert missed the majority of the season with injuries, and hit 0 HR in 6 weeks of game action

Rutherford still doesn't have any power

They spent the 4th overall pick on Madrigal, who might be nothing more than a glorified singles hitter

Zack Collins isn't a catcher, which probably makes him a fringe prospect at best. Not good for a 10th pick overall. 

Zack Burdi came back from TJS throwing 93-95 instead of hovering around triple digits. Not good for his future prospects to be an MLB pitcher

Giolito looks like a bust at this point...I had really high hopes for him this season, but at some point you have to call a spade a spade

Moncada is a huge question mark at best, and could be on his way to joining Giolito in the bust category. The same comment about Giolito could be said here. 

Avi looked more like the 2016 version

Abreu had the worst season of his career

For the majority of the season James Shields was the Sox best starter. 

All of the minor league bullpen arms that looked promising came up and got torched. (Hamiliton, Burr, Vieira) 

At this point, 2020 looks like a pipedream at best, and while it is too early to write the whole thing off as a failure, if things stay the same in 2019 you seriously have to consider an organizational housecleaning. 

In conclusion, it seems like in the best case scenario we end up right back where we were in 2016 with about 4-5 decent players and a bunch of crap, maxing out at 75-78 wins, but without the benefit of the great contracts that made this "talent" acquirable. I don't think the Cubs or Astros minor league talent as a whole ever looked this questionable. We all thought we were going to see the golden age of white sox baseball coming up. Now it looks horrible. They're losing around 100 games with no end in sight. 

 

 

 

 

Great job of analysis, unfortunately all true.

[Jack Parkman]

17 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

 It was a very tough year. That being said, way too much pessimism going around the board right now. I feel 100x better right now after this lowly season than that garbage 2016 season when we were supposed to "compete". That by far was worse.

 

11 minutes ago, flavum said:

Agreed with this. Things could have been better in the minors. 2017 was much better than 2018, but you can’t script baseball. The “critical mass” needs to continue this offseason, and then we need Adolfo to get back on the field, Burger playing, Robert to play 250 minor league games the next couple years. 

It’s going to be an interesting offseason. Could be some trades that freak some people out too.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic, just as objective as possible. A lot of players could make huge strides in 2019 that makes everything come together. I just don't see how 2018 could have gone any worse unless EVERYONE sucked and got injured.  At this time last season, I was legit excited for the seasons to come. Now, I have a heavy amount of skepticism. The answer is, we have to let 2019 play out but by the end of next year, we should have a better idea about whether or not this is going to work. I edited the word in my initial post as "best case" to "most likely" which is what I actually meant. The best case is obviously that a lot of these guys figure it out and the team takes off as intended. 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Sarava]

I agree that many things went the wrong way this year. However, there's still quite a bit to be excited about. I mean, Eloy has the potential to be one of the best hitters in White Sox history. I don't want to put too much on a guy that hasn't even debuted yet, but man does he looks promising. 

That the Sox have so many promising players...it allows for some injuries or busts, etc. Blake Rutherford had a very nice bounceback year. He showed a little more power, and hopefully that continues to grow next year. I'm surprised you put him in the disappointing column.

I'm still cautiously excited for the future. But I think the fanbase needs needs a jolt from the front office. Find a way to get Machado or Harper here. Something to excite us. They owe us something big.

 

[Jack Parkman]

On the other coin, reasons for optimism with undeperforming prospects/young players:

1. Moncada's K rate has really gone down since mid August, and he has raised his BA 20 points from then to now. 

2. If Kopech had to blow out his elbow, now is the time for that to happen when the Sox aren't counting on him as a major rotation piece. 

3. Giolito showed flashes of pure dominance when he had his shit together on the mound. The great majority of the time he was crap, but he put together a 6 week stretch that saved his season from being downright horrible, and that same stretch he looked like an MLB pitcher.  I wouldn't completely write him off yet, but it is getting close to that point. 

4. Robert had 2 hand injuries. Those are known to be power sapping. Let's see what he can do when he's healthy. 

5. Adolfo looked good before he had to get TJS

6. Rutherford is 21, and in A+ so there is still time for him to develop power

7. Dunning and Hansen also still have plenty of time to turn things around. I'll feel a lot better about Dunning if he makes it through ST healthy and Hansen if he can throw strikes again in April. 

 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, Sarava said:

I agree that many things went the wrong way this year. However, there's still quite a bit to be excited about. I mean, Eloy has the potential to be one of the best hitters in White Sox history. I don't want to put too much on a guy that hasn't even debuted yet, but man does he looks promising. 

That the Sox have so many promising players...it allows for some injuries or busts, etc. Blake Rutherford had a very nice bounceback year. He showed a little more power, and hopefully that continues to grow next year. I'm surprised you put him in the disappointing column.

I'm still cautiously excited for the future. But I think the fanbase needs needs a jolt from the front office. Find a way to get Machado or Harper here. Something to excite us. They owe us something big.

 

Rutherford's OPS was fine, but I would have liked to see him in the 12-15 HR range to feel really good. Birmingham is gonna be tough on him. Personally, I'm on the fence between cautiously optimistic and moderately skeptical. 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[SoxAce]

I'm not sure whether to laugh at your Burdi analysis (came back early.. velocity will be back during offseason training) or you giving up on your boy Giolito when you were the one saying all season he was a future ace and Lopez isn't nearly the same caliber pitcher. 

[Jack Parkman]

57 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

I'm not sure whether to laugh at your Burdi analysis (came back early.. velocity will be back during offseason training) or you giving up on your boy Giolito when you were the one saying all season he was a future ace and Lopez isn't nearly the same caliber pitcher. 

Go ahead and laugh at me for that one. I was super wrong, and I admit it. September pushed me over the edge with Giolito. All of the gains he made during the summer were lost. I'll imagine I'll be getting shit for that one for a while, and I just have to take it in stride. In September, Giolito looked every bit as bad as April/May and he wasn't missing his spots as badly and still had his velocity from time to time. Better stuff, same results. If he had been working in the mid-90s all season like he has from July-end of season and had the same results in April-May-June, I would have been way more skeptical of him. I kept hoping if he got some stuff back he'd be ok, but it doesn't seem to be the case. That 2-3 mph velocity loss from his days as a top prospect seems to have really done him in. I thought that working at 93-96 would still be good enough for him but he's been working there for most of the month and still getting shelled. This data point was enough for me to give up.

Edited September 29, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Jack Parkman]

When evaluating pitchers, it is much more prident to evaluate based on hitters reaction to individual pitches instead of how much a pitch type moves. If hitters can pick it up, it movement doesn't matter. Giolito's stuff moves all over the place, and hitters still pick it up well. I thought Giolito's velocity gain would help make it harder for hitters to pick up his stuff. It hasn't. It seems to me, after the velocity uptick, all it took was the new advance scouting report to get around and they were right back on him again. That was the most discouraging thing and why I have flipped on him. 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

39 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

When evaluating pitchers, it is much more prident to evaluate based on hitters reaction to individual pitches instead of how much a pitch type moves. If hitters can pick it up, it movement doesn't matter. Giolito's stuff moves all over the place, and hitters still pick it up well. I thought Giolito's velocity gain would help make it harder for hitters to pick up his stuff. It hasn't. It seems to me, after the velocity uptick, all it took was the new advance scouting report to get around and they were right back on him again. That was the most discouraging thing and why I have flipped on him. 

Big thing to note - his velocity gain evaporated in his last few outings. His velocity peaked back in July and August but it has dropped off by more than 1 mph during the last month.

Also possibly worth noting that this happened at the end of the year, in September, after 150+ innings in the big leagues. Looking at how his season has gone, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they had him doing extra throwing to work on his mechanics during the middle part of the season, given that we actually saw him changing his mechanics during the season. I would also not be surprised if his arm is simply tired right now. I also would not be surprised if, here in September, they've had to lighten up on his throwing just to allow him to finish the season.

Anyway, I'll grant that's speculation, but I can definitely tell you his velocity was stronger in July and August and dropped dramatically when his performance crapped out in September. That part isn't speculation.

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Big thing to note - his velocity gain evaporated in his last few outings. His velocity peaked back in July and August but it has dropped off by more than 1 mph during the last month.

Also possibly worth noting that this happened at the end of the year, in September, after 150+ innings in the big leagues. Looking at how his season has gone, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they had him doing extra throwing to work on his mechanics during the middle part of the season, given that we actually saw him changing his mechanics during the season. I would also not be surprised if his arm is simply tired right now. I also would not be surprised if, here in September, they've had to lighten up on his throwing just to allow him to finish the season.

Anyway, I'll grant that's speculation, but I can definitely tell you his velocity was stronger in July and August and dropped dramatically when his performance crapped out in September. That part isn't speculation.

Not completely. It was down a little bit, there was a lot more 92 than I was used to and a couple 91s, but he was pretty much sitting 92-93 and topping out at 95. Nothing like April and May where he was sitting 90-91 and topping at 93. Those 96-97 mph 2 seamers he was throwing in August were nice. 

[Jose Abreu]

The biggest "bright spot" of the season was completely omitted from the thread, and it's Tim Anderson establishing himself as a starting caliber MLB shortstop. Obviously needs to work on raising OBP and continuing to cut strikeouts, but his defense + speed + power profile, along with his cheap contract, make him a virtual lock as our starting SS for the next 4+ years. 

[TaylorStSox]

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Not completely. It was down a little bit, there was a lot more 92 than I was used to and a couple 91s, but he was pretty much sitting 92-93 and topping out at 95. Nothing like April and May where he was sitting 90-91 and topping at 93. Those 96-97 mph 2 seamers he was throwing in August were nice. 

There's maybe 5 pitchers in all of baseball capable of throwing a 97mph 2 seamer. Giolito, at his best, ain't one of them and never will be. 

[Balta1701]

21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Not completely. It was down a little bit, there was a lot more 92 than I was used to and a couple 91s, but he was pretty much sitting 92-93 and topping out at 95. Nothing like April and May where he was sitting 90-91 and topping at 93. Those 96-97 mph 2 seamers he was throwing in August were nice. 

Go take a look at the chart.  3 games ago, his average velocity of 92.0 matched his average 92.0 velocity in his 2nd game of the year. His last 3 games would have fit comfortably in April and May on range and average and max and min.

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, TaylorStSox said:

There's maybe 5 pitchers in all of baseball capable of throwing a 97mph 2 seamer. Giolito, at his best, ain't one of them and never will be. 

Go look at the pitch in which he struck out Benintendi in the game vs the Red Sox. During that stretch he was throwing wicked 2 seamers at 95-97 mph. 

EDIT 

Here is that pitch. 96 mph. Click on the link. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1035331563666518016%3Flang%3Den&ved=0ahUKEwjUvdaFouHdAhXJ8YMKHQMSCEoQo7QBCBwwAA&usg=AOvVaw2b7yMAqXZkI8cRQrokVsLI

Edited September 29, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Jack Parkman]

Giolito is weird, whether he makes it depends on which guy we get next year. Do we get July/August Giolito or the guy impersonating a major league pitcher the remainder the season? If we get the former, he has a chance. If we get the latter, he's toast. 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[TaylorStSox]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Go look at the pitch in which he struck out Benintendi in the game vs the Red Sox. During that stretch he was throwing wicked 2 seamers at 95-97 mph. 

EDIT 

Here is that pitch. 96 mph. Click on the link. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1035331563666518016%3Flang%3Den&ved=0ahUKEwjUvdaFouHdAhXJ8YMKHQMSCEoQo7QBCBwwAA&usg=AOvVaw2b7yMAqXZkI8cRQrokVsLI

That's absolutely wicked, but I doubt it's actually 96. Nevertheless, he can't repeat that. If he could, he'd be Pedro. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

That's absolutely wicked, but I doubt it's actually 96. Nevertheless, he can't repeat that. If he could, he'd be Pedro. 

95.6 mph according to pitch fx. Go to the sox website, look at the 8/30 game on the schedule, go to pitch fx data vs Benintendi in the 1st inning. It is why I still have a tiny bit of hope he can turn it around. 

[pcq]

On 9/29/2018 at 10:22 AM, TheTruth05 said:

It was a very tough year. That being said, way too much pessimism going around the board right now. I feel 100x better right now after this lowly season than that garbage 2016 season when we were supposed to "compete". That by far was worse.

Maybe if people stopped cheering for losses in the game threads there would be more optimism. I just read above that several of our recent top picks are imposters.