turnin' two Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 43 minutes ago, steveno89 said: Sure, but from a value standpoint I'd rather look elsewhere than 1B/DH with a top 5 pick. There is so much time for players not on the radar right now to emerge that it is difficult to assess much. Sox typically are linked to more developed college prospects vs. high school talent that is 4-5 years away from the majors. Yes, obviously this is an exercise in futility in terms of specific players because so much will change between now and the draft. But as a philosophy, I don't understand why a guy that is not as dangerous a hitter offers more value because he plays SS. From a value standpoint, if there is a guy that is a safer bet, a better hitter, more power, but defensively limited to 1B, why does that offer less value than a guy that is better on defense, plays SS, but will likely never be the hitter the quality of the other guy? I just think discounting a guy that can mash because of his position is just a ridiculous as staying away from Madrigal because he is short, or Judge because he was too tall. The 2 best hitters the Sox have had (for an extended time) have been big, lumbering, slow footed, defensively limited, first basemen. They have also been 2 great hitters that have provided tremendous value to the franchise in every possible way. Why pass on a guy that could be that because he plays 1st. I don't get it. ** Just for the record, I have not seen Vaughn take a single live swing. I am in no way saying it is him or bust. I just don't understand the trend of not taking someone that could be a great hitter because they are a 1B/LF type. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 The track record of college 1b the last ten years has been so bad I think you have to factor that in, as some aspect of it may be predictive. These may just be big guys that matured quicker but lost athleticism along the way. So while they are the best hitters in their age now, others have more room to grow and can surpass them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, bmags said: The track record of college 1b the last ten years has been so bad I think you have to factor that in, as some aspect of it may be predictive. These may just be big guys that matured quicker but lost athleticism along the way. So while they are the best hitters in their age now, others have more room to grow and can surpass them. That is what makes the player evaluation so important. I am not advocating taking a guy like that "just because" but if the scouts feel he can hit moving forward, he shouldn't be ignored just because of his position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 hour ago, turnin' two said: Yes, obviously this is an exercise in futility in terms of specific players because so much will change between now and the draft. But as a philosophy, I don't understand why a guy that is not as dangerous a hitter offers more value because he plays SS. From a value standpoint, if there is a guy that is a safer bet, a better hitter, more power, but defensively limited to 1B, why does that offer less value than a guy that is better on defense, plays SS, but will likely never be the hitter the quality of the other guy? I just think discounting a guy that can mash because of his position is just a ridiculous as staying away from Madrigal because he is short, or Judge because he was too tall. The 2 best hitters the Sox have had (for an extended time) have been big, lumbering, slow footed, defensively limited, first basemen. They have also been 2 great hitters that have provided tremendous value to the franchise in every possible way. Why pass on a guy that could be that because he plays 1st. I don't get it. ** Just for the record, I have not seen Vaughn take a single live swing. I am in no way saying it is him or bust. I just don't understand the trend of not taking someone that could be a great hitter because they are a 1B/LF type. Because guys who have the skill to play the skill positions can always be moved down to lesser skill positions. A guy who is already down to the least skilled position on a baseball field has super limited options for his future. Plus modern baseball has started to put more and more weight into defense, and has actively started discounting players who can't play a skill position at least at a useful level, even if the bat is above average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 26 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Because guys who have the skill to play the skill positions can always be moved down to lesser skill positions. A guy who is already down to the least skilled position on a baseball field has super limited options for his future. Plus modern baseball has started to put more and more weight into defense, and has actively started discounting players who can't play a skill position at least at a useful level, even if the bat is above average. Also worth thinking about the concept of a "replacement player". A replacement level 1b, a guy who can be pulled up off the scrap heap, might put up numbers just a little bit worse than Davidson. A guy who can be pulled up off the scrap heap to play SS - there aren't a lot of guys who can play SS without making a fool of themselves, so the upgrade if you have a SS putting up a .900 OPS is a lot bigger than if you have a 1b doing so. If you've got a 1b who puts up Frank Thomas numbers you won't really care, but you've got to get a really good 1b to make it worth going for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 What is funny is that we all make fun of the Astros for picking Aiken 1st OA in 2014. If the Astros would have picked Rodon, I'd bet you the Sox would have picked Nola. That was the rumor going around, at least. Of those two pitchers, who would you rather have now? I thought so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 29 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: What is funny is that we all make fun of the Astros for picking Aiken 1st OA in 2014. If the Astros would have picked Rodon, I'd bet you the Sox would have picked Nola. That was the rumor going around, at least. Of those two pitchers, who would you rather have now? I thought so. Yeah, and NOLA was the one guy that people DIDN'T want the Sox to take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said: Yeah, and NOLA was the one guy that people DIDN'T want the Sox to take. didn't he have TJS right before the draft or am I thinking of someone else? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 (edited) 21 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Yeah, and NOLA was the one guy that people DIDN'T want the Sox to take. I know and that makes it even funnier. I was on that train of not taking Nola, but that was based on the pre-draft scouting reports that had him at 88-92mph. He gained velo that year and was sitting 93-94 and topping out at 96-97 by the time the draft happened. I think if we all had that scouting report, nobody would have been upset had they taken Nola. Edited October 8, 2018 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Just now, Balta1701 said: didn't he have TJS right before the draft or am I thinking of someone else? That was Kolek. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Yeah, and NOLA was the one guy that people DIDN'T want the Sox to take. It was Singer-esque. Anyone that second guesses the Sox taking Rodon when he was available should just following baseball. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Just now, fathom said: It was Singer-esque. Anyone that second guesses the Sox taking Rodon when he was available should just following baseball. I'm not second guessing, I'm just pointing out that it is funny that we give the Astros grief for not taking Rodon when Nola is the best pitcher from that draft so far, and we all hated him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, fathom said: It was Singer-esque. Anyone that second guesses the Sox taking Rodon when he was available should just following baseball. If Singer gained velocity and was touching 96-97, I'm sure nobody would have been complaining. He didn't. If anything, this tells you that sometimes you can't put any stock into pre-draft scouting reports. Edited October 8, 2018 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Just now, Jack Parkman said: I'm not second guessing, I'm just pointing out that it is funny that we give the Astros grief for not taking Rodon when Nola is the best pitcher from that draft so far, and we all hated him. One huge difference between Nola and Singer though is Nola’s velocity increased his junior year while Singer’s did not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 minute ago, fathom said: One huge difference between Nola and Singer though is Nola’s velocity increased his junior year while Singer’s did not. I was typing exactly that as you were quoting my post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: That was Kolek. No that was after he was drafted by the fish, that I'm sure of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said: Because guys who have the skill to play the skill positions can always be moved down to lesser skill positions. A guy who is already down to the least skilled position on a baseball field has super limited options for his future. Plus modern baseball has started to put more and more weight into defense, and has actively started discounting players who can't play a skill position at least at a useful level, even if the bat is above average. Yeah, I get it, I believe I said that exact thing earlier, I am saying I don't get why. A premium bat is way more valuable than premium defense. Those types of bats are being overlooked because they don't play premium defensive positions. There is a lot of value in having a guy that plays "3rd hitter" or "cleanup" with great skill regardless of where they play on the field, or even if they play the field at all. David Ortiz complied over 50 WAR in both BBref and Fangraphs with being a complete negative on the field. Would anyone pass on him because of defensive liability? Guys who can add serious value on both sides are the goal. I get that. They are really rare. Obviously in a perfect world that is what you want. But why pass on a guy with premium hitting skills to get a guy with decent hitting who plays a sexier position decently. It doesn't make sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boopa1219 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 8 hours ago, steveno89 said: There's obviously a ton of time between now and the draft. I highly doubt we use a top 5 selection on a college 1B. We should be looking for top end college pitching, or an up the middle player. Picking that high you try to select BPA, regardless of position. You should be picking BPA with every pick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 2 hours ago, Balta1701 said: Also worth thinking about the concept of a "replacement player". A replacement level 1b, a guy who can be pulled up off the scrap heap, might put up numbers just a little bit worse than Davidson. A guy who can be pulled up off the scrap heap to play SS - there aren't a lot of guys who can play SS without making a fool of themselves, so the upgrade if you have a SS putting up a .900 OPS is a lot bigger than if you have a 1b doing so. If you've got a 1b who puts up Frank Thomas numbers you won't really care, but you've got to get a really good 1b to make it worth going for. There were only two .900+ OPS SS in baseball this year, and one plays in Denver. The other is Machado. There are a lot of guys who can play SS defensively that can be taken off the scrap heap. Hechavarria, Rondon, were both guys you could have gotten this year for nothing. Teams aren't drowning in .900 OPS guys. There is value to all of them, regardless of position. Eleven. That's it. There were 11 .900 OPS guys in all of MLB this season. If you can get one, or a guy you think can be one, take him. His position doesn't matter. You take that bat and fit it in. How much less valuable was JD Martinez to Boston this season due to his defense? None. Was Mookie more valuable, yeah probably, but you take either one without hesitation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: No that was after he was drafted by the fish, that I'm sure of. Actually it was Jeff Hoffman. The Sox were on him too, until his injury. The Nola rumors didn't start until Hoffman blew his elbow. Edited October 9, 2018 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 47 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Actually it was Jeff Hoffman. The Sox were on him too, until his injury. The Nola rumors didn't start until Hoffman blew his elbow. That's it thanks, i knew there was an elbow somewhere in there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 2 hours ago, turnin' two said: Yeah, I get it, I believe I said that exact thing earlier, I am saying I don't get why. A premium bat is way more valuable than premium defense. Those types of bats are being overlooked because they don't play premium defensive positions. There is a lot of value in having a guy that plays "3rd hitter" or "cleanup" with great skill regardless of where they play on the field, or even if they play the field at all. David Ortiz complied over 50 WAR in both BBref and Fangraphs with being a complete negative on the field. Would anyone pass on him because of defensive liability? Guys who can add serious value on both sides are the goal. I get that. They are really rare. Obviously in a perfect world that is what you want. But why pass on a guy with premium hitting skills to get a guy with decent hitting who plays a sexier position decently. It doesn't make sense. But they HAVE to be that good to have value. If they don't, you can't move them. You can't play them somewhere else. If he comes up just short of projections you have the career of Logan Morrison. If a Nick Madrigal comes up short he can still be a plus defender and/or a utility guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 There was a draft day rumor the Sox were high on Kolek, but yes supposedly they absolutely loved Hoffman before injury. Watch them trade for Hoffman this offseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, fathom said: There was a draft day rumor the Sox were high on Kolek, but yes supposedly they absolutely loved Hoffman before injury. Watch them trade for Hoffman this offseason. I was just going to suggest a Fulmer-Hoffman swap. Two stunted arms that need a change of scenery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 (edited) 52 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: But they HAVE to be that good to have value. If they don't, you can't move them. You can't play them somewhere else. If he comes up just short of projections you have the career of Logan Morrison. If a Nick Madrigal comes up short he can still be a plus defender and/or a utility guy. Yeah, I am failing to see any real difference there. The argument that a if a guy fails he could be a Tyler Saladino or Leury Garcia type doesn't really move the needle for me. Either way that is getting nothing out of a 1st round pick. They all have to be good to get value. If the 3rd overall pick ends up a utility IF or defensive substitution, you blew the pick. /////// And I think there is a joke there about Madrigal coming up short, but I won't be the guy to make it. Edited October 9, 2018 by turnin' two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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