Sox and analytics

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, bmags said:

Analyst - Baseball Operations August f**erstrom
 

What the?

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

What the?

It seems a single word works for our swear filters?

[Two-Gun Pete]

Yeah, it isn't so much that an 80-something year old owner has no appetite for spending on analytics, so much as the [snicker] high school graduate team president simply can't understand analytics. He just isn't smart enough to figure this sort of thing out, IMO.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

14 hours ago, bmags said:

If you are making the argument the Sox aren’t using analytics effectively, make that argument. But stop making the argument Sox aren’t using analytics, and getting consistently proven wrong with examples (including your own) and then changing your argument as a counter. 

I'll make the argument that be it analytics or scouting they aren't doing it effectively. There's no way in hell the Sox get the same success from our 1st round draft picks that the Astros and Cubs got. When you hear things from Hostetler about they would've taken Collins 1 -1 it makes you really wonder.

The Cubs got so much talent they could afford the loss of Jimenez, Cease and Gleyber Torres . But can anyone here realistically see the Sox system producing a Correa, Bregman, Altuve, Springer, Keuchel , McCullers, Bryant , Baez, Schwarber ,Almora, Happ ,Contreras . These are all home grown, none of them from trades.

 

[southsider2k5]

11 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, it isn't so much that an 80-something year old owner has no appetite for spending on analytics, so much as the [snicker] high school graduate team president simply can't understand analytics. He just isn't smart enough to figure this sort of thing out, IMO.

I miss this barely veiled racist line of thinking that you periodically bring back.

[Y2Jimmy0]

9 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'll make the argument that be it analytics or scouting they aren't doing it effectively. There's no way in hell the Sox get the same success from our 1st round draft picks that the Astros and Cubs got. When you hear things from Hostetler about they would've taken Collins 1 -1 it makes you really wonder.

The Cubs got so much talent they could afford the loss of Jimenez, Cease and Gleyber Torres . But can anyone here realistically see the Sox system producing a Correa, Bregman, Altuve, Springer, Keuchel , McCullers, Bryant , Baez, Schwarber ,Almora, Happ ,Contreras . These are all home grown, none of them from trades.

 

I mean they produced Chris Sale so absolutely. 

[bmags]

9 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'll make the argument that be it analytics or scouting they aren't doing it effectively. There's no way in hell the Sox get the same success from our 1st round draft picks that the Astros and Cubs got. When you hear things from Hostetler about they would've taken Collins 1 -1 it makes you really wonder.

The Cubs got so much talent they could afford the loss of Jimenez, Cease and Gleyber Torres . But can anyone here realistically see the Sox system producing a Correa, Bregman, Altuve, Springer, Keuchel , McCullers, Bryant , Baez, Schwarber ,Almora, Happ ,Contreras . These are all home grown, none of them from trades.

 

And I agree. I think there is a big difference from having the data to analyzing it for advantage.

And even worse than scouting, are they using analytics to truly customize their development programs for each player effectively. The measure of that is NOT what they are doing today vs five years ago, it is what they are doing vs. every other team.

Sox brass at soxfest will be quick with examples of how they are doing something, and sure, they are doing it. But are they leading out in front on anything? Hard to say yes based on results. 

Possible examples:

Seemed like a bunch of draft picks with a plus change-up last year, and a lot of change-up usage in majors (anecdotal).

Their waiver wire pickups all seemed to be plus exit velo players

Maybe there are other examples.

None are as convincing to me as houstons heavy emphasis on spin rate in pitching prospects. When sox have seemed to focus on one trait, seems to have come at heavy cost of other traits.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I mean they produced Chris Sale so absolutely. 

I was specifically talking about players produced for the rebuild. Most of the players I mentioned were draft picks or international players signed by the Cubs and Astros that played on their world series winning teams I know they can produce a great player on the blind squirrel theory but I'm talking about year after year of making picks that produce at a high quality. If you look specifically at the draft from 2011-2015 both those teams picked phenomenal talent in the 1st round.

If it takes 5 years in a row making great 1st round draft picks what year did that start for the White Sox ?

[bmags]

Definitely 2015.

[Y2Jimmy0]

32 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I was specifically talking about players produced for the rebuild. Most of the players I mentioned were draft picks or international players signed by the Cubs and Astros that played on their world series winning teams I know they can produce a great player on the blind squirrel theory but I'm talking about year after year of making picks that produce at a high quality. If you look specifically at the draft from 2011-2015 both those teams picked phenomenal talent in the 1st round.

If it takes 5 years in a row making great 1st round draft picks what year did that start for the White Sox ?

No clue. Nick Hostetler has made 4 first rounders in 3 years. It's really too early to judge any of them. The picks also weren't in the top 5. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

No clue. Nick Hostetler has made 4 first rounders in 3 years. It's really too early to judge any of them. The picks also weren't in the top 5. 

I know that makes a difference, The Astro's had 3 1-1's. They screwed it up one year by taking Aiken so ended up with the 2 and 5 pick the next year and took Bregman and Kyle Tucker. But if you look at the Cubs picks from the years I mentioned you can see they are quite similar to the position the Sox drafted in the last few years or some one like Springer was taken 11th in round one so also not a top 5. Altuve was signed for $15,000.

[Y2Jimmy0]

16 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I know that makes a difference, The Astro's had 3 1-1's. They screwed it up one year by taking Aiken so ended up with the 2 and 5 pick the next year and took Bregman and Kyle Tucker. But if you look at the Cubs picks from the years I mentioned you can see they are quite similar to the position the Sox drafted in the last few years or some one like Springer was taken 11th in round one so also not a top 5. Altuve was signed for $15,000.

For sure. Do we know that Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora are hits though? Tim Anderson isn't great but a 3 WAR SS with the 17th pick in the draft is a scouting win. The jury is out on Burger/Collins for sure. They have to hit on Madrigal and whoever goes #3 in 2019 though for sure. The Cubs won a World Series so it's tough to criticize but their drafts as a whole have been kind of rough honestly. In 2012, Almora and now David Bote are only real contributors. 2013 brought Kris Bryant and nothing else. In 2014, they took Kyle Schwarber and took Dylan Cease. In 2015 they took Happ. 

Edited October 5, 2018 by Y2Jimmy0

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

For sure. Do we know that Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora are hits though? Tim Anderson isn't great but a 3 WAR SS with the 17th pick in the draft is a scouting win. The jury is out on Burger/Collins for sure. They have to hit on Madrigal and whoever goes #3 in 2019 though for sure. 

Well we know Schwarber made a significant contribution to the Cubs World Series win so that's plenty good if you hit in that situation. Almora is a very solid fielder and also not bad with the bat. I'd take him in a heartbeat right now in CF.

Sox need some draftees and Robert to step up because at this time they all seem 3 years away except for a few like Jimenez , Zavala and Cease and what we get from that trio is unknown right now.

[Y2Jimmy0]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Well we know Schwarber made a significant contribution to the Cubs World Series win so that's plenty good if you hit in that situation. Almora is a very solid fielder and also not bad with the bat. I'd take him in a heartbeat right now in CF.

Sox need some draftees and Robert to step up because at this time they all seem 3 years away except for a few like Jimenez , Zavala and Cease and what we get from that trio is unknown right now.

Albert Almora was a 1 WAR player last year. He doesn't walk and had a wRC+ of 89. He was horrible in the 2nd half. I don't believe the White Sox with unearth a Kris Bryant but I think they've drafted players in recent years that will at least match the production of Schwarber/Almora/Happ. The Cubs needed to spend $$ to get over the top and the White Sox will need to do the same. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

49 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Albert Almora was a 1 WAR player last year. He doesn't walk and had a wRC+ of 89. He was horrible in the 2nd half. I don't believe the White Sox with unearth a Kris Bryant but I think they've drafted players in recent years that will at least match the production of Schwarber/Almora/Happ. The Cubs needed to spend $$ to get over the top and the White Sox will need to do the same. 

The Cubs plan all along was to get position players to stabilize the lineup/roster for a long time and then add pitchers through trades and free agency. Houston pretty much took the same path . Some of it was luck like i mentioned before in the Aiken situation while the Sox drafted guys like Fulmer Collins, Burger  Burdi and Rodon although Rodon was not drafted with the rebuild in mind.  The Sox were one of the most pitching heavy teams in last 5 years in the top 5 rounds in the draft prior  to 2018 ranking 5th in all of MLB. So definitely a different philosophy prior to 2018. Also 21 of 24 in the top 5 rounds/past 5 years prior to 2018 were college players.

Houston has had some amazing luck or skill ,(who knows) with Altuve , picking Correa under slot over Buxton and using the saved money to entice McCullers to sign with them. Also with the AIken/Bregman picks. We need some of that luck/skill too because if there are too many holes to fill spending the money won't do us much good.

Edited October 5, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I will also concede that the Sox acquired a lot of talent through trades. Even though the average number of home grown talent of the playoffs teams last year was 9 the Sox may not need that many if Giolito, Lopez, Moncada, Jimenez , Kopech, Cease, Dunning , Basabe ,  and Rutherford can all be contributors on a competitive team. But you can see that 5 of those names are pitchers and they are more prone to long term injuries than position players which is why Fan Graphs penalizes them.

Edited October 5, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

If we are to do a pre-mortem, a "if this fails why did it fail", I still scream from the rooftops it was the failure in 15 or 16 to do a monster INTL FA class that broke the rules and brought in quantity. I hope Robert succeeds, I like that they signed him, but it's hard for me to believe this farm wouldn't be so much more improved had they signed a class with like 8 of the top 30 in 15 or 16.

 

[GreenSox]

6 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I know that makes a difference, The Astro's had 3 1-1's. They screwed it up one year by taking Aiken so ended up with the 2 and 5 pick the next year and took Bregman and Kyle Tucker. 

That was no screw-up; that was shrewd thinking and planning.  Who should they have picked - Rodon, the obvious?

The one they screwed up was passing on Bryant.  They've made several screw ups...but far more brilliant moves.

Edited October 5, 2018 by GreenSox

[caulfield12]

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2018/10/4/17939512/dallas-mavericks-hire-bob-voulgaris-in-front-office-role-gambling-research

Or even what the Mavericks are doing...

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I will also concede that the Sox acquired a lot of talent through trades. Even though the average number of home grown talent of the playoffs teams last year was 9 the Sox may not need that many if Giolito, Lopez, Moncada, Jimenez , Kopech, Cease, Dunning , Basabe ,  and Rutherford can all be contributors on a competitive team. But you can see that 5 of those names are pitchers and they are more prone to long term injuries than position players which is why Fan Graphs penalizes them.

It’s interesting to note the Brewers are having a lot of success with ex AL Central guys.   Moustakas, Cain, Kratz, Jeffress from KC, we contributed Saladino, Swarzak last year, Junior Guerra, Cedeno, Soria.  And their huge breakthrough hitter, Aguilar, came from CLE.

[PolishPrince34]

https://theathletic.com/560514/2018/10/03/how-brian-cashman-deftly-played-the-long-game-and-used-analytics-to-transform-the-culture-of-the-yankees/

Great article on how Cashman transformed their organization with the use of analytics. Plus White Sox only have 2 analytics staffers to the organization. Smallest in all of MLB. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

15 hours ago, GreenSox said:

That was no screw-up; that was shrewd thinking and planning.  Who should they have picked - Rodon, the obvious?

The one they screwed up was passing on Bryant.  They've made several screw ups...but far more brilliant moves.

You can't be serious . The Astro's draft AIken. Agree to sign him pending the physical . Then find something they don't like and reduce their offer and Aiken refused it, How can that all be planned ?

[SCCWS]

23 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

For sure. Do we know that Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora are hits though? Tim Anderson isn't great but a 3 WAR SS with the 17th pick in the draft is a scouting win. The jury is out on Burger/Collins for sure. They have to hit on Madrigal and whoever goes #3 in 2019 though for sure. The Cubs won a World Series so it's tough to criticize but their drafts as a whole have been kind of rough honestly. In 2012, Almora and now David Bote are only real contributors. 2013 brought Kris Bryant and nothing else. In 2014, they took Kyle Schwarber and took Dylan Cease. In 2015 they took Happ. 

Agree and the kid the Dodgers selected a few picks later was a bust. So we did good. But I wished they had passed and took that gawky Judge kid the Yankees took at #30.................................. 

[bmags]

5 hours ago, PolishPrince34 said:

https://theathletic.com/560514/2018/10/03/how-brian-cashman-deftly-played-the-long-game-and-used-analytics-to-transform-the-culture-of-the-yankees/

Great article on how Cashman transformed their organization with the use of analytics. Plus White Sox only have 2 analytics staffers to the organization. Smallest in all of MLB. 

Absolutely embarrassing. 

[Dominikk85]

I think kiley mc daniel said he thinks white sox are about middle of the pack now. Not  on par with Houston, rays or dodgers but not super old school either. They certainly do believe in analytics now.