So is no one falling on the sword for 2018?

[raBBit]

I guess I don’t really know why I believe this, but I was always kind of under the inprsssion that Renteria and his crew were more of the babysitters until the team spends/starts winning. 

Not that the Sox have been big on accountability historically, I have not been all that concerned with the lack of accountability this year because I’ve been operating under that assumption. 

[Balta1701]

19 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

I agree with this and it is hard to have revionist history, but it really was an inept failure by the existing management team to not be able to build around the trio of players you mentioned under those affordable contracts.  They tried to win and go for it, etc, but they flat out made the wrong moves. Period.  It isn't as if you couldn't have made the right moves. Now I'm not saying I would have done better or it would have been easy, but the outcome could have been much different.

Even now, I laugh at how easy everyone thinks a rebuild is. Blow it up and miraculously get better. Yes, a few teams have hit the reset button recently with pretty immediate success, but a long term historical view of the baseball world indicates to me that such an outcome isn't necessarily as likely.  

I didn't have time to reply to this yesterday but I want to because I think this continues to be the most important thing for people to understand about how we got where we are right now - there was no possible way for the White Sox to construct a winning team around those guys. It wasn't making the wrong moves, it was 100% impossible to get to a winning team from where they sat at the start of 2014, when they had all 3 of those players + Abreu. 

This franchise won 63 games in 2013, and deserved to. They were awful. They were a clown show on the field, no one developed, their theme music that year should have been the benny hill theme, they were the least focused team I can remember watching, and they had coaching as bad as the White Sox have had since the years of Terry Boom Boom.

In 2014 things did improve. They signed Abreu for 1b, Sale was a little healthier, and they added Eaton to the OF, but the organization around them was basically bereft of talent. There were a couple guys like Bassitt, Semien, Garcia who at least had some talent, but they were poorly coached in the minors (if at all) and they'd need years to turn into quality big leaguers. They won 73 games that year and that was a fair summary of their talent.

The org did have one thing available - their payroll post 2015 was about $60 million. So, they decided to trade the measley scraps they had, call up Rodon when he should have been in the minors, and raise their payroll up to $125 million, declaring they could compete. But, the problem remained - they still had jack squat in terms of talent in the organization, so they didn't have enough to trade to fill in holes...and they completely misunderstood the free agent market. They wound up with 78 wins...which is exactly where they should have wound up.

Look at the teams that spent more money than the White Sox that offseason. Boston went big with Sandoval and Ramirez. Without calling out the person, our biggest debate that season was me versus another guy here over whether or not to sign Victor Martinez to DH and we wound up with LaRoche. There was a thread here about signing James Shields and another about Chase Headley. These contracts were TERRIBLE. If you played the free agent market that offseason expecting to win, you were a sucker. That is the norm, not the exception - you cannot win by the free agent market. If you go through the top 20 free agents that offseason, the guys you would have been ok signing are Scherzer, Lester, Nelson Cruz, David Robertson, and Andrew Miller. You can imagine a universe where our org somehow signed specifically only those guys and that was enough to win the Central, but that's not how it works, you can't use hindsight to say that "These deals worked, if we signed only these guys we would have won". If we'd spent more money at DH, we'd have wound up with Victor Martinez and that contract was worse than LaRoche. If we'd decided to spend more money on pitching rather than trading for Samardzija, we'd probably have wound up with James Sheilds and that contract was the worst for 2 different teams. This wasn't just us - the Red Sox did terrible on the free agent market, the  Yankees had to move Headley's contract, the Padres signed Shields.

There was NO WAY to turn that team competitive by 2015. They did not have the resources to trade and the free agent market was a disaster that no one can win. Teams that scout better than us completely flopped. You didn't say it exactly this way, but there was no way that "making the right moves" would have made us competitive in 2015, it could not happen unless you could look into the future and figure out which FAs would flop, which we can't do.

2016 was the exact same story. We were this close to signing Alex Gordon, so far in his contract he's put up a .665 OPS in exchange for $48 million. That'd have been a great buy! The Cubs spent a heckuva lot more than that on an outfielder and wound up with Heyward. The one OF contract that has been decent is Upton, but that's 1 outfielder out of 4 big ones that offseason who isn't a complete flop. The Free Agent market simply cannot make up the amount of ground we needed to make up, not without time travel. That team spent $60 million in new salary after 2014, mostly on the free agent market, and improved by 5 wins up to a peak of 78,  which is a totally fair and reasonable number to improve for that amount of free agent spending. That's all you can do on the free agent market even if you're really good at scouting - the Astros are better and smarter than our franchise and even then they spent money on Beltran last year which didn't give them anything but "leadership". 

I thought myself for a long time that, had we continued in 2015 and 2016 on the path of 2014, where we tried to make incremental improvements and maybe find some talent in discarded pieces (Justin Smoak would have been a great addition if we didn't clog our DH spot), then by 2017 or 2018 we might have had something around Sale, Quintana and Eaton, but here's the one place I have to use a bit of hindsight - I would have been wrong in that, because Eaton and Quintana have absolutely collapsed the last 2 seasons on health and performance. It isn't just that they left the White Sox either, Quintana was struggling in 2017 while still with the White Sox. Throw in Abreu's inconsistency and the holes are even bigger. Even if we'd have been making the right moves, those guys would have fallen apart, and that would have left us still being a crappy team far behind a really dominant native american stereotype franchise. Even if they'd have been doing everything right, they'd have been mired below .500 after those guys fell apart. The only way to take that team after 2013 and turn it into something of value was a full, multi-year, bottom of the league finishing rebuild. That's it.

This team could not have put together a winner in the past 5 years. They started off with about the worst talent franchise-wide in all of MLB, with minor leagues that were poorly coached and utterly barren. They had 3 or 4 good players (one of them great) at the big league level, and that's it. Throwing every resource they had in and doing everything right and having better coaches they might have gotten to .500, but this franchise simply did not have enough talent in it to make up ground against really good Royals and Native American Stereotype teams. It could not be done. Trying to do so set us back years, but the lack of talent in this organization was so dramatic that a full rebuild was inevitable. 

[Dick Allen]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I didn't have time to reply to this yesterday but I want to because I think this continues to be the most important thing for people to understand about how we got where we are right now - there was no possible way for the White Sox to construct a winning team around those guys. It wasn't making the wrong moves, it was 100% impossible to get to a winning team from where they sat at the start of 2014, when they had all 3 of those players + Abreu. 

This franchise won 63 games in 2013, and deserved to. They were awful. They were a clown show on the field, no one developed, their theme music that year should have been the benny hill theme, they were the least focused team I can remember watching, and they had coaching as bad as the White Sox have had since the years of Terry Boom Boom.

In 2014 things did improve. They signed Abreu for 1b, Sale was a little healthier, and they added Eaton to the OF, but the organization around them was basically bereft of talent. There were a couple guys like Bassitt, Semien, Garcia who at least had some talent, but they were poorly coached in the minors (if at all) and they'd need years to turn into quality big leaguers. They won 73 games that year and that was a fair summary of their talent.

The org did have one thing available - their payroll post 2015 was about $60 million. So, they decided to trade the measley scraps they had, call up Rodon when he should have been in the minors, and raise their payroll up to $125 million, declaring they could compete. But, the problem remained - they still had jack squat in terms of talent in the organization, so they didn't have enough to trade to fill in holes...and they completely misunderstood the free agent market. They wound up with 78 wins...which is exactly where they should have wound up.

Look at the teams that spent more money than the White Sox that offseason. Boston went big with Sandoval and Ramirez. Without calling out the person, our biggest debate that season was me versus another guy here over whether or not to sign Victor Martinez to DH and we wound up with LaRoche. There was a thread here about signing James Shields and another about Chase Headley. These contracts were TERRIBLE. If you played the free agent market that offseason expecting to win, you were a sucker. That is the norm, not the exception - you cannot win by the free agent market. If you go through the top 20 free agents that offseason, the guys you would have been ok signing are Scherzer, Lester, Nelson Cruz, David Robertson, and Andrew Miller. You can imagine a universe where our org somehow signed specifically only those guys and that was enough to win the Central, but that's not how it works, you can't use hindsight to say that "These deals worked, if we signed only these guys we would have won". If we'd spent more money at DH, we'd have wound up with Victor Martinez and that contract was worse than LaRoche. If we'd decided to spend more money on pitching rather than trading for Samardzija, we'd probably have wound up with James Sheilds and that contract was the worst for 2 different teams. This wasn't just us - the Red Sox did terrible on the free agent market, the  Yankees had to move Headley's contract, the Padres signed Shields.

There was NO WAY to turn that team competitive by 2015. They did not have the resources to trade and the free agent market was a disaster that no one can win. Teams that scout better than us completely flopped. You didn't say it exactly this way, but there was no way that "making the right moves" would have made us competitive in 2015, it could not happen unless you could look into the future and figure out which FAs would flop, which we can't do.

2016 was the exact same story. We were this close to signing Alex Gordon, so far in his contract he's put up a .665 OPS in exchange for $48 million. That'd have been a great buy! The Cubs spent a heckuva lot more than that on an outfielder and wound up with Heyward. The one OF contract that has been decent is Upton, but that's 1 outfielder out of 4 big ones that offseason who isn't a complete flop. The Free Agent market simply cannot make up the amount of ground we needed to make up, not without time travel. That team spent $60 million in new salary after 2014, mostly on the free agent market, and improved by 5 wins up to a peak of 78,  which is a totally fair and reasonable number to improve for that amount of free agent spending. That's all you can do on the free agent market even if you're really good at scouting - the Astros are better and smarter than our franchise and even then they spent money on Beltran last year which didn't give them anything but "leadership". 

I thought myself for a long time that, had we continued in 2015 and 2016 on the path of 2014, where we tried to make incremental improvements and maybe find some talent in discarded pieces (Justin Smoak would have been a great addition if we didn't clog our DH spot), then by 2017 or 2018 we might have had something around Sale, Quintana and Eaton, but here's the one place I have to use a bit of hindsight - I would have been wrong in that, because Eaton and Quintana have absolutely collapsed the last 2 seasons on health and performance. It isn't just that they left the White Sox either, Quintana was struggling in 2017 while still with the White Sox. Throw in Abreu's inconsistency and the holes are even bigger. Even if we'd have been making the right moves, those guys would have fallen apart, and that would have left us still being a crappy team far behind a really dominant native american stereotype franchise. Even if they'd have been doing everything right, they'd have been mired below .500 after those guys fell apart. The only way to take that team after 2013 and turn it into something of value was a full, multi-year, bottom of the league finishing rebuild. That's it.

This team could not have put together a winner in the past 5 years. They started off with about the worst talent franchise-wide in all of MLB, with minor leagues that were poorly coached and utterly barren. They had 3 or 4 good players (one of them great) at the big league level, and that's it. Throwing every resource they had in and doing everything right and having better coaches they might have gotten to .500, but this franchise simply did not have enough talent in it to make up ground against really good Royals and Native American Stereotype teams. It could not be done. Trying to do so set us back years, but the lack of talent in this organization was so dramatic that a full rebuild was inevitable. 

The 1976 White Sox lost 97 games. In 1977 they won 90.  The 2007 White Sox lost 90 games and it should have been more. They rode Jerry Owens and Josh Fields to many September wins. They won the division in 2008. The 1990 White Sox won 94 games. They added some young talent, but Robin Ventura wasn't the Robin Ventura we all knew in 1990. Frank Thomas didn't come up until August. 

To say there was no way to win, is crazy. Yes, the farm system sucked. But for the most part, it has sucked for more than a decade. To say there were no players that could have been acquired that could have meant wins, is short sided. 

 

The White Sox, since the strike, have been sort of a half in, when going for it, Albert Belle being signed , the exception. The half assed approach which gets guys like wife beater Wil Cordero, and John Kruck and Chris Sabo, and Darrin Erstad, hasn't worked, and doesn't work. You don't have anyone to call up, and you have these gems signed to team friendly contracts, spend your money, and try to win. Not some half assed well if he pitches like he's never had 2 radical surgeries, and this guy can turn the clock back 5 years, and everyone can have their career year, we will be right there approach. If somehow this rebuild is successful in producing young kids who can actually play, they are still going to need to add, and the half assed approach to adding will not work. Especially with the current guys doing the shopping.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The 1976 White Sox lost 97 games. In 1977 they won 90.  The 2007 White Sox lost 90 games and it should have been more. They rode Jerry Owens and Josh Fields to many September wins. They won the division in 2008. The 1990 White Sox won 94 games. They added some young talent, but Robin Ventura wasn't the Robin Ventura we all knew in 1990. Frank Thomas didn't come up until August. 

To say there was no way to win, is crazy. Yes, the farm system sucked. But for the most part, it has sucked for more than a decade. To say there were no players that could have been acquired that could have meant wins, is short sided. 

 

The White Sox, since the strike, have been sort of a half in, when going for it, Albert Belle being signed , the exception. The half assed approach which gets guys like wife beater Wil Cordero, and John Kruck and Chris Sabo, and Darrin Erstad, hasn't worked, and doesn't work. You don't have anyone to call up, and you have these gems signed to team friendly contracts, spend your money, and try to win. Not some half assed well if he pitches like he's never had 2 radical surgeries, and this guy can turn the clock back 5 years, and everyone can have their career year, we will be right there approach. If somehow this rebuild is successful in producing young kids who can actually play, they are still going to need to add, and the half assed approach to adding will not work. Especially with the current guys doing the shopping.

That things could have happened at some point in the past when teams operated differently does not mean it could have happened now. They could have done slightly better and come up with a few more wins had their FA spending not been average, but not enough to take 76 and 78 win teams and push them up to the level where anything would have mattered. Spend more and congrats, you have Victor Martinez's deal. Just look at the end results for the other teams that spent more than us, the red flags are all over the place. 

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That things could have happened at some point in the past when teams operated differently does not mean it could have happened now. They could have done slightly better and come up with a few more wins had their FA spending not been average, but not enough to take 76 and 78 win teams and push them up to the level where anything would have mattered. Spend more and congrats, you have Victor Martinez's deal. Just look at the end results for the other teams that spent more than us, the red flags are all over the place. 

Look at the 2005 vs 2006 Tigers. You can win. Teams stil increase win totals pretty drastically. The problem is when you pick up guys like Javy Vazquez and Jeff Samardzija, and think, these are 5.0 WAR pitchers, that will be more wins. Then look again and realize they always put up big WAR numbers, but rarely actually have big seasons. Vazquez was great for the Sox when they sucked. When they were good, horrible. Samardzija sucked, yet his WAR was still good. Something about the Sox defense. Looks like everywhere he goes, his team does him in. What no one wanted to mention, was the biggest defensive problem when he was pitching was Jeff S. himself. 

Edited October 18, 2018 by Dick Allen

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The White Sox, since the strike, have been sort of a half in, when going for it, Albert Belle being signed , the exception. The half assed approach which gets guys like wife beater Wil Cordero, and John Kruck and Chris Sabo, and Darrin Erstad, hasn't worked, and doesn't work. You don't have anyone to call up, and you have these gems signed to team friendly contracts, spend your money, and try to win. Not some half assed well if he pitches like he's never had 2 radical surgeries, and this guy can turn the clock back 5 years, and everyone can have their career year, we will be right there approach. If somehow this rebuild is successful in producing young kids who can actually play, they are still going to need to add, and the half assed approach to adding will not work. Especially with the current guys doing the shopping.

DA - this is a something that has been gnawing at me put perfectly.

I am not a pessimist on the future, I think the sox collection of talent is pretty good. 

But for a while you used to say "Why would you support a rebuild with this same group" and for a while I felt that the sox brass was capable of making the right decisions...they just weren't.

But the "half-in/half-out" line is what worries me. It feels like in terms of operating, sox goal is to never be too far behind the best practices, sit comfortably, slightly above average.

It has been a long time since I have seen an example of where the sox consistency in personnel has paid off. That, for a while, was pitching and health. But cracks are appearing in the dam.

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Look at the 2005 vs 2006 Tigers. You can win. Teams stil increase win totals pretty drastically. The problem is when you pick up guys like Javy Vazquez and Jeff Samardzija, and think, these are 5.0 WAR pitchers, that will be more wins. Then look again and realize they always put up big WAR numbers, but rarely actually have big seasons. Vazquez was great for the Sox when they sucked. When they were good, horrible. Samardzija sucked, yet his WAR was still good. Something about the Sox defense. Looks like everywhere he goes, his team does him in. What no one wanted to mention, was the biggest defensive problem when he was pitching was Jeff S. himself. 

How on Earth do you think the 2005 to 2006 Tigers did that? They came off a full rebuild. They won 43 games in 2003. The #2 draft pick they got for that was a key part of the 2006 rotation - he's pitching tonight. Starting in 1995, here are the Tigers win totals:

60
53
79
65
69
79
66
55
43
72
71
95

They were below .500 for 11 seasons before that breakout. I sure as hell hope we're not stuck in a rebuild for that long. That long period of losing helped them come up with the talent to put out a strong rotation in 2006. That period of losing helped them have enough talent to trade for Miguel Cabrera a couple seasons later.

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

How on Earth do you think the 2005 to 2006 Tigers did that? They came off a full rebuild. They won 43 games in 2003. The #2 draft pick they got for that was a key part of the 2006 rotation - he's pitching tonight. Starting in 1995, here are the Tigers win totals:

60
53
79
65
69
79
66
55
43
72
71
95

They were below .500 for 11 seasons before that breakout. I sure as hell hope we're not stuck in a rebuild for that long. That long period of losing helped them come up with the talent to put out a strong rotation in 2006. That period of losing helped them have enough talent to trade for Miguel Cabrera a couple seasons later.

in 2006 Verlander was 17-9 3.63 ERA 4.35 FIP. The Sox had Chris Sale. And Jose Quintana.

In 2006 Curtis Granderson at 25, and the amazing Chris Shelton at 26 were the only 2 Tiger regular position players under 29. It wasn't the tank that got them there. 

 

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

in 2006 Verlander was 17-9 3.63 ERA 4.35 FIP. The Sox had Chris Sale. And Jose Quintana.

In 2006 Curtis Granderson at 25, and the amazing Chris Shelton at 26 were the only 2 Tiger regular position players under 29. It wasn't the tank that got them there. 

 

And having playing time and slots available to sign Carlos Guillen made no difference, Bonderman made no difference, having cheap pitchers like Bonderman and Verlander wasn't important, no one uses fireballers in the bullpen like Zumaya these days, Brandon Inge was arb-1 that year, and that's where they got the money to sign guys like IRoid and Ordonez - having those players cheap that they developed or acquired during the rebuild. They completed a successful rebuild with a talent-laden organization, and jumped from 70 wins to 96. 

Signing Victor Martinez would not have pushed the White Sox up from 76 wins to 90.

[Greg Hibbard]

The White Sox were a very, very competitive and successful team from 1990-2010 in the majority of seasons, and I think some fans incorporate that into their frustration while simultaneously forgetting that this has been a great franchise for those years - one that fares very well compared to most of the others. 4 division titles, and arguably our best team was the one ripped away from us by the strike. We won a title. How many other teams can say that over those 22 years? The Yankees won 5 of them, the Red Sox 2, the Blue Jays 2, the Marlins 2. Over half of the 21 championships in 22 years went to just 4 of the teams.....

The Braves were a better team, certainly, despite also only winning one title - they won 4 pennants. Were the Indians a better franchise? In terms of regular season record, no doubt. They have zero titles to show for it. Would you trade places with their fans?

Most teams were worse. The Cubs - 4 division titles with not even a pennant to show for it. The A's never won a title in that era despite their incredible '90 season and the run they had in the early 2000s. The Mariners and their 116 win season, and all the glory of having both Ichiro and Junior, among other stars - nada - not even a pennant. When we get into competitive teams like the Astros? Great players for many years - some hall of famers - a pennant to show for it and being swept handily by our team. Teams like the Brewers, Rockies, Padres? The Expos/Nationals? Teams like the Pirates? Many were occasionally competitive. Some were a joke almost that entire era.

From 1995 to 2009 the Yankees, Red Sox, or Indians won the pennant in nearly every year - the only exceptions are the Angels in 2002, the White Sox in 2005, The Tigers in 2006, and the Rays in 2008 (which I think everyone acknowledges might be the most miraculous thing ever done). Our team actually WON - the whole enchilada - a title.... in that era of unbalanced insane dominance by force of payroll.

We have had an unbelievably bad 8 years. There's no question that 2011-2018 was really, really bad. The acquisition of Adam Dunn kicked off an era where things just went wrong. Really wrong. They went wrong for basically 5 and a half seasons until we finally decided that enough was enough - that the firing of Guillen, handing over the keys to Hahn and still trying to retool under Ventura just wasn't enough - that a wholesale different direction was required.

I for one, think that our team during most of my life did quite well. Certainly during those 22 years I mentioned, we did VERY well. Especially when compared to most other franchises. I never thought I would see a title from the vantage point of 95-99 - when the Indians just CRUSHED us every year in the division, and then the Yanks and eventually the Red Sox would just outspend one another to buy a title with a fantasy squad.  Did you?

But here's the thing - those 22 good years bought the White Sox a little fan equity in my mind. I'm not really the frustrated baseball fan enduring decades of losing. No White Sox fan is. Really going back to the late 80s when they drafted those four superstars in a row - the franchise has done plenty right.  But that's not the point even - I'm a fan of the White Sox because I've always been a fan since I was a kid and always will be. However, I do trust that this ownership group WILL right the ship BECAUSE they are owed a few bad seasons because of the 22 good ones we had. I might be wrong. They might not be able to do it. But after the first 5 of those bad seasons, decisions were made to completely tear down and rebuild which necessitated the need for definitely 2017 and 2018 just being bad. 90 losses, 95 losses, 100 losses....more....it was gonna be bad and we knew it.

Therefore, NO, I don't think anyone needs to be axed this year, necessarily. I really don't. If you want to blame the Steverson, consider this - does he also deserve accolades for Daniel Palka having an unreal year? Does he deserve any accolades for fixing some of Moncada's strikeout problems in the last month of the season - against many frontline starters? I think the franchise having some continuity in this offseason actually has more value than making a change.

I think 2019 is the year you can start to get impatient. I think 2019 is the crucial season in which the most important decisions will be made, and when Moncada and Anderson better be 2.5-3.5 WAR players (Anderson really is already there, hopefully), when the pitching staff better be getting into place, and when we need to absolutely shore up the positions of C and CF for the medium term. If a big step forward isn't made and this team isn't in a position to compete for a division title by the end of 2019, then I think you start to make WHOLESALE changes with leadership, at that point.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2018 by Greg Hibbard

[Dick Allen]

33 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And having playing time and slots available to sign Carlos Guillen made no difference, Bonderman made no difference, having cheap pitchers like Bonderman and Verlander wasn't important, no one uses fireballers in the bullpen like Zumaya these days, Brandon Inge was arb-1 that year, and that's where they got the money to sign guys like IRoid and Ordonez - having those players cheap that they developed or acquired during the rebuild. They completed a successful rebuild with a talent-laden organization, and jumped from 70 wins to 96. 

Signing Victor Martinez would not have pushed the White Sox up from 76 wins to 90.

The White Sox had Sale, Q, and Eaton signed cheaply.    Abreu's contract was pretty fair. They got the money to sign guys because their management made a commitment to really try to win, and their owner was getting up there, had a lot of money he would never spend, so he signed off.

 I don't know where you come up with Victor Martinez. You seem to use him as a talking point, and you are the only one who has mentioned him.

[Balta1701]

21 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The White Sox had Sale, Q, and Eaton signed cheaply.    Abreu's contract was pretty fair. They got the money to sign guys because their management made a commitment to really try to win, and their owner was getting up there, had a lot of money he would never spend, so he signed off.

 I don't know where you come up with Victor Martinez. You seem to use him as a talking point, and you are the only one who has mentioned him.

Fine if you're going to ask about it...because you're the unnamed person who spent all of the 2nd half of 2014 saying that Victor Martinez should be our top target because he was an excellent hitter and that skill was going to age well. I was trying to be gentle rather than making this about you, but since you insist that there was some magical move that this team should have done that would have put them over the top, signing Victor Martinez was your #1 strategy going into 2015 and you and I argued about this for months. I said he's 36 and guys his age don't last well, and I was right. His contract has been as bad as any in baseball. Learn the lesson from this!

10 or 15 years ago, it was probably possible to find bargains on the free agent market for good money. Today, that simply doesn't exist. There is too much money and too many guys who are darn near finished just as they hit FA. You can find the occasional Justin Smoak or JD Martinez by playing a bottom feeder, if you have playing time to give to people, but that doesn't build you a winner, it fills 1 or 2 holes. You have to have a strong organization to compete with these teams that are putting out strong organizations. The White Sox had a weak organization from 2013-2016, and there was literally no move or set of moves that could have been done that was going to put them over the top unless you could use time travel to see which players were going to be successes. 

[Dick Allen]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Fine if you're going to ask about it...because you're the unnamed person who spent all of the 2nd half of 2014 saying that Victor Martinez should be our top target because he was an excellent hitter and that skill was going to age well. I was trying to be gentle rather than making this about you, but since you insist that there was some magical move that this team should have done that would have put them over the top, signing Victor Martinez was your #1 strategy going into 2015 and you and I argued about this for months. I said he's 36 and guys his age don't last well, and I was right. His contract has been as bad as any in baseball. Learn the lesson from this!

10 or 15 years ago, it was probably possible to find bargains on the free agent market for good money. Today, that simply doesn't exist. There is too much money and too many guys who are darn near finished just as they hit FA. You can find the occasional Justin Smoak or JD Martinez by playing a bottom feeder, if you have playing time to give to people, but that doesn't build you a winner, it fills 1 or 2 holes. You have to have a strong organization to compete with these teams that are putting out strong organizations. The White Sox had a weak organization from 2013-2016, and there was literally no move or set of moves that could have been done that was going to put them over the top unless you could use time travel to see which players were going to be successes. 

If your memory is serving you correctly, you will also remember I said never to 4 years. 

 

One thing the Sox could have done is paid Mark Buehrle what the Marlins paid him. 2012 could have been different. Maybe then they don't make the Samardizja mistake. They spent money on Adam Dunn. Bad move. Detroit actually wanted him them. They signed Victor instead. Make those switches, and already it's a much brighter outlook.  

Mistakes, every GM will make. Theo blames the hitting coach, and he's the genius who signed Darvish, Chatwood, and Morrow, and actually had people believing the first two may just be part of the greatest rotation of all time.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

If your memory is serving you correctly, you will also remember I said never to 4 years. 

 

 

Great. Go look at his first 3 years of that contract. I'll wait. We were better off with LaRoche.

Learn the lesson from that! Even the best teams cannot go to the free agent market and expect to avoid busts. Over half of the top 20 free agents in that 2014-2015 were disappointments or outright debacles. 

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Great. Go look at his first 3 years of that contract. I'll wait. We were better off with LaRoche.

Learn the lesson from that! Even the best teams cannot go to the free agent market and expect to avoid busts. Over half of the top 20 free agents in that 2014-2015 were disappointments or outright debacles. 

Year 2 was pretty good.  And I never said you can avoid busts. When you copy and pasted, you happened to leave that part out. Funny how you work. 

Edited October 18, 2018 by Dick Allen

[pcq]

This rebuild will be long term, lasting many may losses and thousands of apologies.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

Year 2 was pretty good. 

$18 million for 1.6 bWAR/1.0 fWAR. You're right, that's pretty good...for the free agent market. That's a perfect example of why the Free Agent market cannot fill in for a pathetic, weak system with only a handful of quality players. That's the stuff you get!

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

$18 million for 1.6 bWAR/1.0 fWAR. You're right, that's pretty good...for the free agent market. That's a perfect example of why the Free Agent market cannot fill in for a pathetic, weak system with only a handful of quality players. That's the stuff you get!

He was a DH. The WAR is going to be a bit supressed. 

They had guys they could trade. Somehow Semien, Bassit, Phegley, Micah Johnson, Trayce Thompson, got guys major league guys who were supposed to be big time players. Didn't quite work out that way. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

He was a DH. The WAR is going to be a bit supressed. 

They had guys they could trade. Somehow Semien, Bassit, Phegley, Micah Johnson, Trayce Thompson, got guys major league guys who were supposed to be big time players. Didn't quite work out that way. 

EXACTLY! Because if you are trading away weak sauce, and your organization doesn't bother coaching your minor leaguers because that requires working rather than sitting on the couch (Semien), then all you get back is guys who are 1-2 years away from free agency, who are already expensive, and who their orgs are happy to part with. Exactly what we got. You don't get prime time players for trading that! That's why the White Sox couldn't make those teams better through the trade market, because it brought back players whose names were big but who their own teams were ready to move on from. Their system was so weak that the trade market could not possibly fill in the gaps around their weak core.

[Dick Allen]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

EXACTLY! Because if you are trading away weak sauce, and your organization doesn't bother coaching your minor leaguers because that requires working rather than sitting on the couch (Semien), then all you get back is guys who are 1-2 years away from free agency, who are already expensive, and who their orgs are happy to part with. Exactly what we got. You don't get prime time players for trading that! That's why the White Sox couldn't make those teams better through the trade market, because it brought back players whose names were big but who their own teams were ready to move on from. Their system was so weak that the trade market could not possibly fill in the gaps around their weak core.

Is that why they could only come up with James Shields, because they only had Fernando Tatis Jr. to offer? 

 

Hahn's best effort included Mat Latos and jimmy Rollins. They weren't properly committed.  H r.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Is that why they could only come up with James Shields, because they only had Fernando Tatis Jr. to offer? 

 

Hahn's best effort included Mat Latos and jimmy Rollins. They weren't properly committed.  H r.

Find me a better shortstop and starting pitcher signed in 2016 as free agents for less than $7 million. You keep making my point for me - it was an impossible task. 

[Dick Allen]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Find me a better shortstop and starting pitcher signed in 2016 as free agents for less than $7 million. You keep making my point for me - it was an impossible task. 

Less than $7 million is the budget for a starting SS and starting pitcher for a going for it ballclub?

 

You are making my point for me.

 

And just remember, if and when these young guys ever get good , the guys that brought you these clowns to fill in holes will be doing it again. 

Edited October 18, 2018 by Dick Allen

[greg775]

13 hours ago, Fan O'Faust said:

“Winning” White Sox baseball is not important to you.  We get it.  

I think it's fair to say most fans consider winning incredibly important. Chicago is a little different in that the Sox are the second team in the city and we can be grateful there has been ownership willing to keep them here. Veeck and Reinsdorf mainly preventing moves. However, you can be a real fan and not condone the crap we've been watching of late. My years of fandom of one team, the Sox, indicate I'm a true Sox fan even though I've been disgusted by the rebuild. Nobody can tell me I'm not a true fan. I have followed the team too long and fought too many fights with Royals fans to not be a fan.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Less than $7 million is the budget for a starting SS and starting pitcher for a going for it ballclub?

 

You are making my point for me.

 

And just remember, if and when these young guys ever get good , the guys that brought you these clowns to fill in holes will be doing it again. 

What is your point then if it is not that they made poor decisions with the money that they spent and the trades they made? My point has been that their decisions did not matter, the decision that they were a competitive roster was fundamentally flawed, it was impossible for them to compete. You keep giving examples of moves they made that were limited by the lack of resources available, and then seemingly suggesting that they should have made smarter moves. $7 million is the budget for a starting SS and pitcher when you are trying to win with a pathetically weak core. It's the budget for a starting pitcher and starting SS when you have totally failed to understand your roster. How good or bad the moves they made were...that didn't matter. They did not have enough to compete those seasons and every example you keep giving is an example of exactly that.

Competing in 2015 and 2016 was impossible. The failure was not selecting bad players, it was declaring that the task was possible when it wasn't. 

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

What is your point then if it is not that they made poor decisions with the money that they spent and the trades they made? My point has been that their decisions did not matter, the decision that they were a competitive roster was fundamentally flawed, it was impossible for them to compete. You keep giving examples of moves they made that were limited by the lack of resources available, and then seemingly suggesting that they should have made smarter moves. $7 million is the budget for a starting SS and pitcher when you are trying to win with a pathetically weak core. It's the budget for a starting pitcher and starting SS when you have totally failed to understand your roster. 

Competing in 2015 and 2016 was impossible. The failure was not selecting bad players, it was declaring that the task was possible when it wasn't. 

My point is if you are going to go for it, go for it. You dive into the pool, don't just stick your toes in. They weren't nearly aggressive enough. It was not impossible to compete. 

They weren't totally committed. If they were, they would have had actual guys who should play well, not guys you hoped played well. Dioner Navarro, starting catcher?