How much $/years would you offer Eovaldi?

[caulfield12]

Since we already have a Sonny Gray thread with a number of replies, and signing Eovaldi would SEEM to be much more logical (depending on the terms) than some of the suggested moves for Gray, who also wouldn't be a part of the team's theoretical future playoff runs in 2021/22...why not another conjecture thread?

He's obviously got great stuff, but has never been able to put it all together on a consistent basis...to the point where he's earning a $2 million plus incentives deal in his walk year.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/chuck-garfiens-top-five-free-134724876.html

Garfien picked Machado (not Harper, for some reason), Adam Jones (yuck, McCutcheon or Pollock seem more likely, unless KW's making the call), JA Happ, Ottavino (that one makes more sense) and then Michael Brantley as his Top 5.

Personally, I'd rather roll the dice on Eovaldi than Happ, but I can understand prizing "stability/track record" over potential.

That said, it would be basically like trading Jose Quintana, only to resign an older and more expensive version of him.

I can understand the logic of "subtracting" Brantley from CLE, but that injury history for him and AJ Pollock will at some point be the end of Hahn's tenure if he keeps gambling on less-risky but far from risk-free second tier free agents.

 

 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

2/15 with additional incentives based on performance.

[caulfield12]

Based on this playoff start and potentially at least one more defining start in the World Series...he will probably get a firm commitment of at least $25-30 million from someone, if not even more.

[frogsplash31]

Kind of reminds me of Chatwood last year. The heavy metrics teams loved him. I may be way off, but I could see him getting 4/48-60 million.

[TheFutureIsNear]

SP under 30 coming off of post season success (so far at least)...someone will overpay, almost guaranteed. Happens every year.

Id want him on something like 2 years $25 with a mutual option for a 3rd year at like $18M. Won’t shock me 1 bit if he ends up getting something in the neighborhood of 4/80M tho

[Bob Sacamano]

I'm going to predict 3 years/ $30-39m, so $10-13m annually.

Edited October 17, 2018 by soxfan2014

[bmags]

I wouldn't hate this but I did mainly want to use money either on short term deals or big money elite talent purchases. A lot of people saved up for this FA period, and I think a team that loses out will pick up Eovaldi for more than Chatwood.

But I do think it's an interesting pickup, I'm just not sold on the payoff being that big. But he may very well be the jhoulys chacin of the fa period.

[caulfield12]

Jackie Bradley, Jr., with two arbitration years left?

I think that ship has (probably) sailed.

[Bob Sacamano]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Jackie Bradley, Jr., with two arbitration years left?

I think that ship has (probably) sailed.

That has everything to do with this thread haha

[caulfield12]

39 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

That has everything to do with this thread haha

Do we honestly want to start threads for 150-200 different players of interest?

They’re both in the post-season on the same team, and Bradley’s name has been mentioned around here for at least five years.

At any rate, pretty unlikely they can do without his defense, despite underwhelming offensive production.

[Eminor3rd]

On 10/17/2018 at 10:41 AM, bmags said:

I wouldn't hate this but I did mainly want to use money either on short term deals or big money elite talent purchases. A lot of people saved up for this FA period, and I think a team that loses out will pick up Eovaldi for more than Chatwood.

But I do think it's an interesting pickup, I'm just not sold on the payoff being that big. But he may very well be the jhoulys chacin of the fa period.

This. At this juncture, the Sox should spend their free agent money on: 

1. Players that the market failed; undervalued, high upside talent

2. Elite, long-term, building-block talent

Eovaldi could, ultimately, fall into the first category. But if he’s treated like a Chatwood, we aren’t at the spot where we want to commit market rate dollars to mid-rotation starters. 

[wrathofhahn]

5 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

This. At this juncture, the Sox should spend their free agent money on: 

1. Players that the market failed; undervalued, high upside talent

2. Elite, long-term, building-block talent

Eovaldi could, ultimately, fall into the first category. But if he’s treated like a Chatwood, we aren’t at the spot where we want to commit market rate dollars to mid-rotation starters. 

Eovaldi has dominant stuff and has put up good numbers I don't think he'll be underpaid he could take another Richard like step forward the question though is if he does that even matter for us? That's sort of the rub we are at least two years away so we'd basically be taking a chance and if he succeeds it doesn't matter we may get one or two meaningful years out of him (3yr/4yr deal) and if he fails due to injury or whatever then he'll still be on the roster even when we are in a position to contend. I'd much rather make those kind of moves in 2020 and start with a clean slate. 

So if we do take a chance on a similar type player there is more of an upside for the full length of the contract. I also think he probably gets 4 years. Cobb signed for 4/57 and his stuff isn't near as good. I could see him getting 4/63 easy.

Edited October 18, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[Nokona]

I've liked Eovaldi for about 4 years now so I'd be all for taking a chance on him.  

[wrathofhahn]

1 hour ago, Nokona said:

I've liked Eovaldi for about 4 years now so I'd be all for taking a chance on him.  

The time for taking a chance on Eovaldi is long since past he will get legit money and term this offseason.

[Boopa1219]

3 years and $45M ($15M AAV)

2019: $25M

2020: $10M

2021: $10M 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

3 yrs/$48M with a team option for a 4th year at $20M. 

 

But someone who is ready to win now will probably offer him an opt-out after 2 years, so if he really has figured it all out, he can cash in a massive FA deal after 3 good years in a row and he will only be 30 years old.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

3 yrs/$48M with a team option for a 4th year at $20M. 

 

But someone who is ready to win now will probably offer him an opt-out after 2 years, so if he really has figured it all out, he can cash in a massive FA deal after 3 good years in a row and he will only be 30 years old.

Eovaldi is a hot commodity right now . He's got great stuff even after 2 Tommy Johns. After Corbin he might be the best starting pitching name out there. He might even get a better contract than Corbin if he pitches a gem in the WS, Not sure how the 2 TJ's will affect his market but my guess right now before the WS is he'll get at at least 3 yrs. and $55M and 4/75 w/ a very good WS.

If I had to make a guess on the Sox without having any idea what direction they are moving this off season I'd say Drew Pomeranz is more their speed.

[wrathofhahn]

I swear I didn't write this per mlbtr on the 20th:

Like Corbin, Red Sox right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is slated to be one of the most sought-after starters available in free agency. While Eovaldi, 28, likely won’t do as well as Corbin on his next contract, many executives see fellow righty Alex Cobb as a comparable, per Cafardo. Cobb signed a four-year, $57MM contract with Baltimore in free agency last offseason, though Cafardo argues Eovaldi’s in position to rake in an even richer deal. Regarding Eovaldi, one exec tells Cafardo: “He’s shown, first of all, that he’s healthy. He’s shown he can pitch on a big stage. He’s shown that he’s grown as a pitcher where he not only relies on that 97-100-miles-per-hour fastball, but now he has a cutter that’s proven so effective for him and allowed him to pitch deep into games. And, he’s had two Tommy John surgeries, survived them and is flourishing.” Eovaldi underwent the second of those surgeries in 2016 and has indeed held his own this year upon returning. Between Tampa Bay and Boston, he pitched to a 3.81 ERA/3.60 FIP with 8.19 K/9 an 1.62 BB/9 in 111 regular-season innings. Eovaldi has continued his effectiveness in the postseason for the AL-winning Red Sox, with a 1.88 ERA and 10 strikeouts against two walks in 14 1/3 frames.

Some of you are dreaming with those numbers you are posting.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Eovaldi is a hot commodity right now . He's got great stuff even after 2 Tommy Johns. After Corbin he might be the best starting pitching name out there. He might even get a better contract than Corbin if he pitches a gem in the WS, Not sure how the 2 TJ's will affect his market but my guess right now before the WS is he'll get at at least 3 yrs. and $55M and 4/75 w/ a very good WS.

If I had to make a guess on the Sox without having any idea what direction they are moving this off season I'd say Drew Pomeranz is more their speed.

Pomeranz is a guy that makes a ton of sense to take a flier on, but I’m not sure he can be the main rotation addition this off-season.  With the Kopech injury, I really think we need to add a reliable veteran starter to take some pressure off Rodon, Lopez, & Giolito.  That deal will likely need to be of the multi-year variety, but I think adding some stability to our young rotation is of the utmost importance.  And I wouldn’t be against adding two starters if the second guy can be had on a favorable deal like I expect with Pomeranz.

[wrathofhahn]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Pomeranz is a guy that makes a ton of sense to take a flier on, but I’m not sure he can be the main rotation addition this off-season.  With the Kopech injury, I really think we need to add a reliable veteran starter to take some pressure off Rodon, Lopez, & Giolito.  That deal will likely need to be of the multi-year variety, but I think adding some stability to our young rotation is of the utmost importance.  And I wouldn’t be against adding two starters if the second guy can be had on a favorable deal like I expect with Pomeranz.

I don't like it at all. I don't want the Sox to pay for middle rotation talent. That is how you get screwed. Look at that Cobb deal. Chatwood. We aren't in a position to contend anyways I agree the position needs to be filled but would much rather take a chance on a bounce back guy then commit ourselves with term to someone who is far from a sure thing themselves and has the downside of term.

Most of these middle rotation guys that hit FA are fools gold or turds that another team has shined. I'd rather be the team paying these guys on shortterm deals then the sucker who signs them longterm after they have rebuilt their value.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, wrathofhahn said:

I don't like it at all. I don't want the Sox to pay for middle rotation talent. That is how you get screwed. Look at that Cobb deal. Chatwood. We aren't in a position to contend anyways I agree the position needs to be filled but would much rather take a chance on a bounce back guy then commit ourselves with term to someone who is far from a sure thing themselves and has the downside of term.

Most of these middle rotation guys that hit FA are fools gold or turds that another team has shined. I'd rather be the team paying these guys on shortterm deals then the sucker who signs them longterm after they have rebuilt their value.

I don’t really disagree with anything you say here.  It all depends on the player & contract.  I’m willing to use some cash in the short-term to add some stability and provide a bridge to the next wave of prospects for the right guy.  I would love to add someone like Lance Lynn on a two year deal for maybe a bit higher salary than he’d otherwise get.  I really don’t see the downsize risk adding an arm like this if the years are limited.

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t really disagree with anything you say here.  It all depends on the player & contract.  I’m willing to use some cash in the short-term to add some stability and provide a bridge to the next wave of prospects for the right guy.  I would love to add someone like Lance Lynn on a two year deal for maybe a bit higher salary than he’d otherwise get.  I really don’t see the downsize risk adding an arm like this if the years are limited.

We absolutely need to be in the mix for 2 mid-rotation pitchers this year just because our rotation right now is Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, blank, and blank. But, on paper, Cease arrives near the end of this year or the start of 2020, and we have to keep a rotation spot open for Kopech in 2020, and hell Kopech will need a roster spot that year also when he comes off the 60 man DL. I would pay a premium for 1 year contracts - they'd also be more tradeable if either Cease showed he was ready or someone else looked worthy of taking a shot. If we decide we need another veteran hurler next offseason because guys continue to struggle, figure it out then. A couple of the other minor league pitchers like Adams or Stephens or Lambert or Flores or Medeiros could head to AAA next year and show enough to be worthy of a late season callup or a shot in 2020 if we need depth as well, and there's lots of potential options in that list.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

We absolutely need to be in the mix for 2 mid-rotation pitchers this year just because our rotation right now is Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, blank, and blank. But, on paper, Cease arrives near the end of this year or the start of 2020, and we have to keep a rotation spot open for Kopech in 2020, and hell Kopech will need a roster spot that year also when he comes off the 60 man DL. I would pay a premium for 1 year contracts - they'd also be more tradeable if either Cease showed he was ready or someone else looked worthy of taking a shot. If we decide we need another veteran hurler next offseason because guys continue to struggle, figure it out then. A couple of the other minor league pitchers like Adams or Stephens or Lambert or Flores or Medeiros could head to AAA next year and show enough to be worthy of a late season callup or a shot in 2020 if we need depth as well, and there's lots of potential options in that list.

Ok, this better explains your point of view than the other posts I responded to.  And I agree for the most part, although I think we’ll need to add one veteran to a two year deal.  As much as I want to dream of a 2020 rotation of the five guys you mentioned, there will likely be attrition.  Adding someone like Lynn on a two year deal provides stability in the event someone goes down with injury or doesn’t take that next step and allows to us look into trading Rodon if we decide that’s a path worth exploring.

So hypothetically speaking, I’d love to add someone like Lynn on a two year deal and someone like Pomeranz on a one year deal.  Those types of contracts will not prevent us from making room for our actual prospects when the time is right and would provide a nice mix of upside & stability.  I don’t want to waste two rotation spots on guys like Shields & MiGo who do nothing but eat innings and that might require us to go multi-year to fill at least one of the spots. 

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Ok, this better explains your point of view than the other posts I responded to.  And I agree for the most part, although I think we’ll need to add one veteran to a two year deal.  As much as I want to dream of a 2020 rotation of the five guys you mentioned, there will likely be attrition.  Adding someone like Lynn on a two year deal provides stability in the event someone goes down with injury or doesn’t take that next step and allows to us look into trading Rodon if we decide that’s a path worth exploring.

So hypothetically speaking, I’d love to add someone like Lynn on a two year deal and someone like Pomeranz on a one year deal.  Those types of contracts will not prevent us from making room for our actual prospects when the time is right and would provide a nice mix of upside & stability.  I don’t want to waste two rotation spots on guys like Shields & MiGo who do nothing but eat innings and that might require us to go multi-year to fill at least one of the spots. 

I'm the exact opposite. If this team is actually competitive in 2021, I don't want someone in the 3rd year of a $30 million, space-filling contract eating a roster spot and not being very good, because that's hurting the team I care about. Pomeranz on a one year deal is fine. Shields on a 1 year deal is fine. Trading minimal stuff for Gray is fine. 2 or 3 year deals are not. The mantra in the rotation this year and especially 2020 is the same mantra as last season for the lineup - play the kids. Don't block them, don't come up with expensive insurance policies when we don't need them. 

[Jack Parkman]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'm the exact opposite. If this team is actually competitive in 2021, I don't want someone in the 3rd year of a $30 million, space-filling contract eating a roster spot and not being very good, because that's hurting the team I care about. Pomeranz on a one year deal is fine. Shields on a 1 year deal is fine. Trading minimal stuff for Gray is fine. 2 or 3 year deals are not. The mantra in the rotation this year and especially 2020 is the same mantra as last season for the lineup - play the kids. Don't block them, don't come up with expensive insurance policies when we don't need them. 

Completely agreed. I wouldn't mind Eovaldi all that much because he could take a huge step forward and end up being a bargain, but for the most part, picking up someone like Sonny Gray for a minimal cost or someone like Pomeranz on a 1-year deal, is a much smarter move. Who knows? Dunning could be ready for a spot by July, provided he stays healthy. Eovaldi is going to be a hot ticket, as he looks to be the 3rd best option for contenders in need of a starter, after Keuchel and Corbin.

The majority of FA starters this offseason are barely worthy of an MLB contract. 

 

Edited October 21, 2018 by Jack Parkman