How much $/years would you offer Eovaldi?

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'm the exact opposite. If this team is actually competitive in 2021, I don't want someone in the 3rd year of a $30 million, space-filling contract eating a roster spot and not being very good, because that's hurting the team I care about. Pomeranz on a one year deal is fine. Shields on a 1 year deal is fine. Trading minimal stuff for Gray is fine. 2 or 3 year deals are not. The mantra in the rotation this year and especially 2020 is the same mantra as last season for the lineup - play the kids. Don't block them, don't come up with expensive insurance policies when we don't need them. 

You must not have paid much attention to how last year went.  Let’s recap for fun.  Rodon only made 20 starts and put up a 4.95 FIP due an ugly K rate.  He’s the ace of the staff heading into next season.  Our current #2 starter would be Lopez and he’s coming off a 4.63 FIP but at least pitched a full season.  He did show some flashes last year and I’m actually optimistic about him long-term, but he still has a long way to go with his change & curveball to be anything more than a mid-rotation starter.  That leaves good ole Giolito and his MLB worst 5.56 FIP for qualified starters.  While there were a few moments where you could squint and see shades of the former top prospect, his season overall was an absolute disaster.  There is a non-zero chance that none of these guys will be in our 2020 rotation.

Beyond the “ Big Three” we’re counting on this year, you got Kopech who is coming off TJS and Burdi’s recovery to date doesn’t inspire full confidence that Michael will be ready to go opening day 2020.  You got Dunning coming off a mysterious elbow injury.  You got Hansen who has gone ass backwards with his command & mechanics.  That leaves Cease as the only other guy who might ready in the near-term with TOR upside.  And he’s a guy who just went over a 100 innings for the first time in his career.  Right now, there a ton of question marks with this group.

So in conclusion, last year was a complete mess on the pitching side of things and if it taught me one thing it’s that you can never have enough pitching.  I don’t view Lance Lynn (or someone similar) on a two year deal being a “space eating contract”.  I view that pitcher as a stabilizing veteran that this staff desperately needs.  And if we have to eat $15M in 2020 because so many things have gone right with the young kids (again highly unlikely) that’s a small price to pay given our current financial flexibility.

[wrathofhahn]

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You must not have paid much attention to how last year went.  Let’s recap for fun.  Rodon only made 20 starts and put up a 4.95 FIP due an ugly K rate.  He’s the ace of the staff heading into next season.  Our current #2 starter would be Lopez and he’s coming off a 4.63 FIP but at least pitched a full season.  He did show some flashes last year and I’m actually optimistic about him long-term, but he still has a long way to go with his change & curveball to be anything more than a mid-rotation starter.  That leaves good ole Giolito and his MLB worst 5.56 FIP for qualified starters.  While there were a few moments where you could squint and see shades of the former top prospect, his season overall was an absolute disaster.  There is a non-zero chance that none of these guys will be in our 2020 rotation.

Beyond the “ Big Three” we’re counting on this year, you got Kopech who is coming off TJS and Burdi’s recovery to date doesn’t inspire full confidence that Michael will be ready to go opening day 2020.  You got Dunning coming off a mysterious elbow injury.  You got Hansen who has gone ass backwards with his command & mechanics.  That leaves Cease as the only other guy who might ready in the near-term with TOR upside.  And he’s a guy who just went over a 100 innings for the first time in his career.  Right now, there a ton of question marks with this group.

So in conclusion, last year was a complete mess on the pitching side of things and if it taught me one thing it’s that you can never have enough pitching.  I don’t view Lance Lynn (or someone similar) on a two year deal being a “space eating contract”.  I view that pitcher as a stabilizing veteran that this staff desperately needs.  And if we have to eat $15M in 2020 because so many things have gone right with the young kids (again highly unlikely) that’s a small price to pay given our current financial flexibility.

Agreed my major preference is for one year deals and unless they are injured most of them will want and get one year deals anyways.

The only guys who will accept term are probably the guys you shouldn't be giving it to. I don't want to give any soft tossers coming off good years 3 years or even 2 years. I want guys with some upside. 

For me that means no Hellickson, Sanchez, Miley, or Gio.

[southsider2k5]

My biggest thing is even if/when guys fail, there will be other free agents we can sign. I mean if we are talking about Kershaw, sure. But anyone else is fungible with someone else next year or the year after when we would actually need them.

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

My biggest thing is even if/when guys fail, there will be other free agents we can sign. I mean if we are talking about Kershaw, sure. But anyone else is fungible with someone else next year or the year after when we would actually need them.

With Kershaw's back problems, he needs to be on a team that is competing right now, not a team competing in 3 years. 

[wrathofhahn]

On 10/21/2018 at 8:25 PM, Balta1701 said:

With Kershaw's back problems, he needs to be on a team that is competing right now, not a team competing in 3 years. 

Kershaw is more a name then anything right now. His velocity has fallen off a cliff. Throwing at James Shields speeds.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 10/21/2018 at 4:40 PM, wrathofhahn said:

Agreed my major preference is for one year deals and unless they are injured most of them will want and get one year deals anyways.

The only guys who will accept term are probably the guys you shouldn't be giving it to. I don't want to give any soft tossers coming off good years 3 years or even 2 years. I want guys with some upside. 

For me that means no Hellickson, Sanchez, Miley, or Gio.

I think the questions we and the Sox FO has to ask our/themselves is ; 1. When it comes to top end young FA talent  will there be such a thing as a long term contract anymore ? 2.  If all the top talent has to have opt outs does that make guys like Eovaldi, Brantley (2nd level FA's) more likely to sign longer contracts (3+ years) ?

Every time I read anything about signing someone all I see is posters saying 1 or 2 years. Sure if you are going after bounce back types like Pomeranz its doable for a year or 2.

If the new reality is free agency is getting more tricky then it might be a good idea to sign some FA's with the intention of flipping them even if it means giving out 2-4 year contracts. We have to face the facts that this team isn't going to just come together all in one year where the prospects come up and shine. Right now we need more good AAA guys and instead of waiting for it for another 2-3 years the Sox may have to make it happen .  I really don't think we are going to miss the Delmonico's Cordell's  Davidson's on the roster currently in favor of  guys who could bounce back like a Donaldson or Pomeranz . Have to take some chances while we still can

We are going to be vastly disappointed by casting this wide prospect net over our system where they all become above average major league players right when we want them to. This past year should have opened some eyes to what can happen to prospects.

[southsider2k5]

49 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think the questions we and the Sox FO has to ask our/themselves is ; 1. When it comes to top end young FA talent  will there be such a thing as a long term contract anymore ? 2.  If all the top talent has to have opt outs does that make guys like Eovaldi, Brantley (2nd level FA's) more likely to sign longer contracts (3+ years) ?

Every time I read anything about signing someone all I see is posters saying 1 or 2 years. Sure if you are going after bounce back types like Pomeranz its doable for a year or 2.

If the new reality is free agency is getting more tricky then it might be a good idea to sign some FA's with the intention of flipping them even if it means giving out 2-4 year contracts. We have to face the facts that this team isn't going to just come together all in one year where the prospects come up and shine. Right now we need more good AAA guys and instead of waiting for it for another 2-3 years the Sox may have to make it happen .  I really don't think we are going to miss the Delmonico's Cordell's  Davidson's on the roster currently in favor of  guys who could bounce back like a Donaldson or Pomeranz . Have to take some chances while we still can

We are going to be vastly disappointed by casting this wide prospect net over our system where they all become above average major league players right when we want them to. This past year should have opened some eyes to what can happen to prospects.

Sure. That was my biggest fear of a rebuild.  But we are here now, and reversing course back into the Kenny Williams era of 2nd and 3rd tier free agents so we can win 5 more games in a non playoff season will hurt more than it will help in the long run.  5 more wins this season would have been the difference between the 3rd and 8th picks in the 19 draft. I don't think that is worth the possibility of maybe getting a prospect at the break. This is quite literally why we need to take advantage of getting as many high quality prospects into the system as possible. 

[caulfield12]

45 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sure. That was my biggest fear of a rebuild.  But we are here now, and reversing course back into the Kenny Williams era of 2nd and 3rd tier free agents so we can win 5 more games in a non playoff season will hurt more than it will help in the long run.  5 more wins this season would have been the difference between the 3rd and 8th picks in the 19 draft. I don't think that is worth the possibility of maybe getting a prospect at the break. This is quite literally why we need to take advantage of getting as many high quality prospects into the system as possible. 

I guess it's up to the front office/JR/marketing department to determine how much more of the fan base they can afford to drive into apathy.

We expected going into last off-season to be competitive (like the Royals in 2014, especially 2nd half) at least in July of 2019 and we're already one full year behind that timetable.  (Obviously, Machado/Harper/Corbin could change that, with 2-3 "big name" veteran relievers being the more unlikely adds.)

It remains to be seen if picking Madrigal instead of the 5th-8th guy (could get you a Fulmer or Buehler) is going to be worth it.  That said, we ALL know pretty much beyond a doubt that duct-taping together a 72-78 win team but still not being competitive with the Indians isn't going to move the bar enough to get the fans back.

The concern, of course, and a valid one, is how do you jump 20 victories in one year if you're going to be mired in the high 60's or low 70's in terms of win totals?  You have to start hitting on some of your high draft picks and also making the right trades and free agent moves.   It's that simple.

 

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I guess it's up to the front office/JR/marketing department to determine how much more of the fan base they can afford to drive into apathy.

We expected going into last off-season to be competitive (like the Royals in 2014, especially 2nd half) at least in July of 2019 and we're already one full year behind that timetable.  (Obviously, Machado/Harper/Corbin could change that, with 2-3 "big name" veteran relievers being the more unlikely adds.)

It remains to be seen if picking Madrigal instead of the 5th-8th guy (could get you a Fulmer or Buehler) is going to be worth it.  That said, we ALL know pretty much beyond a doubt that duct-taping together a 72-78 win team but still not being competitive with the Indians isn't going to move the bar enough to get the fans back.

The concern, of course, and a valid one, is how do you jump 20 victories in one year if you're going to be mired in the high 60's or low 70's in terms of win totals?  You have to start hitting on some of your high draft picks and also making the right trades and free agent moves.   It's that simple.

 

Sox fans who asked for the rebuild now can't handle the rebuild. You just can't make this stuff up.

[caulfield12]

The problem is that the majority of teams aren't going to be able to successfully follow the Astros/Cubs blueprints.

We're already deviating, and we had three amazing contracts to deal (along with Frazier/Kahnle) and still are already one year behind schedule.

If it wasn't for the fact that the REST of the AL Central was abysmal, the Twins are retrenching...and the Indians are clearly going to take at least one if not two major steps backwards, there's a window opening whether we are ready or not to step through.

If we were in ANY other division in baseball and in the exact same position, there wouldn't be nearly as much of a temptation to jump-start the rebuild with moves like the Brewers made for established veterans like Yelich and Cain.

[Dick Allen]

If the White Sox are awful in 2019, it means guys like Giolito and Lopez and Moncada, and Anderson, and several more didn’t take the next step. Which would not be good. it also means the longer you go without improving, the better the chance you aren’t going to improve. Signing a guy like Machado, not that I think there is much of a chance, but some seemed pretty convinced several months ago there was a decent chance, shows some faith in your young players and their capacity to put it all together. But they are going to have to blow him away.

[caulfield12]

Let's just put it this way, if the Cubs sign Harper and the White Sox pretty much stand pat, the odds of finding ANY Sox jersey in Chicago won't be that great.  Maybe the hats at places like LIDS, but it's really hard to think of a jersey that fans would be credibly interested in buying.

Jimenez is the only name that immediately comes to mind.

I would have a hard time determining which player would be #2 in popularity behind Jimenez at this point.

Let's just hope that Madrigal can fulfill the Jeter-esque qualities that Gordon Beckham was SUPPOSED to possess.  He's the kind of player that nearly every kid in America could identify with.

[southsider2k5]

29 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The problem is that the majority of teams aren't going to be able to successfully follow the Astros/Cubs blueprints.

We're already deviating, and we had three amazing contracts to deal (along with Frazier/Kahnle) and still are already one year behind schedule.

If it wasn't for the fact that the REST of the AL Central was abysmal, the Twins are retrenching...and the Indians are clearly going to take at least one if not two major steps backwards, there's a window opening whether we are ready or not to step through.

If we were in ANY other division in baseball and in the exact same position, there wouldn't be nearly as much of a temptation to jump-start the rebuild with moves like the Brewers made for established veterans like Yelich and Cain.

We had the worst year of the rebuild, when the GM said we would have the worst year of the rebuild.  Sox fans are upset that a rebuild is happening like a rebuild.

[caulfield12]

But that wasn't the storyline in August/September of 2017 when Moncada and Giolito were faring well.

A LOT of casual White Sox fans had more than a glimmer of hope they would be a 68-74 win team this year.  

We could go back to the predictions thread, which is always going to be a bit more optimistic than Las Vegas odds because that's human nature for the majority of baseball fans when a new season is approaching.

[Heads22]

9 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Kershaw is more a name then anything right now. His velocity has fallen off a cliff. Throwing at James Shields speeds.

Whoa, I'm not letting this one slip by, his velocity has slipped but regression still has him putting up ace numbers

[Flash]

21 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

We had the worst year of the rebuild, when the GM said we would have the worst year of the rebuild.  Sox fans are upset that a rebuild is happening like a rebuild.

What makes you believe this will be the worst year?

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Flash said:

What makes you believe this will be the worst year?

Eloy, the bullpen, and expectations of net growth from our now more experienced core.

[Balta1701]

43 minutes ago, Flash said:

What makes you believe this will be the worst year?

 

39 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Eloy, the bullpen, and expectations of net growth from our now more experienced core.

If...If...If...If...we are healthier. 

[wrathofhahn]

1 hour ago, Heads22 said:

Whoa, I'm not letting this one slip by, his velocity has slipped but regression still has him putting up ace numbers

He's putting up number one numbers sure but the question is moving forward. His velocity is declining rapidly at a steady pace. He pitches in an extreme pitchers park and in the NL.

I have zero interest in him pitching for the sox because of the contract and term that would be required and where his current trajectory is. People need to stop fantasizing over those Dodgers pitching numbers. I mean 38 year old Rich Hill is putting up mid 3's Era in that park. Ryu had a sub 2 ERA.

They aren't real.

Edited October 25, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sure. That was my biggest fear of a rebuild.  But we are here now, and reversing course back into the Kenny Williams era of 2nd and 3rd tier free agents so we can win 5 more games in a non playoff season will hurt more than it will help in the long run.  5 more wins this season would have been the difference between the 3rd and 8th picks in the 19 draft. I don't think that is worth the possibility of maybe getting a prospect at the break. This is quite literally why we need to take advantage of getting as many high quality prospects into the system as possible. 

I'm not suggesting anything major,, just a dew veterans that can be signed for 1- 3 years who have a chance to put up decent numbers in either the first or 2nd year or the contract that will make them flippable. I don't know who they might be . Escobar got 3/21M. A few contracts in that range sounds doable to me. I doubt they'd lead to many extra wins.Hahn always seems to do his best work getting relievers . Find 1 or 2 relievers one starter and one position player on 1 to 3 yr contracts . 4 guys increase the odds of at least one of them getting flipped without being much of a financial burden, In the unlikely event all 4 do well and we start winning too much its ok because we flip them and the team craters again but maybe we get some AAA talent that can be used in the new competitive window whenever it may start.

[TaylorStSox]

10 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

I guess it's up to the front office/JR/marketing department to determine how much more of the fan base they can afford to drive into apathy.

We expected going into last off-season to be competitive (like the Royals in 2014, especially 2nd half) at least in July of 2019 and we're already one full year behind that timetable.  (Obviously, Machado/Harper/Corbin could change that, with 2-3 "big name" veteran relievers being the more unlikely adds.)

It remains to be seen if picking Madrigal instead of the 5th-8th guy (could get you a Fulmer or Buehler) is going to be worth it.  That said, we ALL know pretty much beyond a doubt that duct-taping together a 72-78 win team but still not being competitive with the Indians isn't going to move the bar enough to get the fans back.

The concern, of course, and a valid one, is how do you jump 20 victories in one year if you're going to be mired in the high 60's or low 70's in terms of win totals?  You have to start hitting on some of your high draft picks and also making the right trades and free agent moves.   It's that simple.

 

You've basically manufactured this entire narrative in your head and now you believe it as fact. When you say "we," what you mean is "I." 

[SCCWS]

Watching this edition of the Red Sox, the growth of Benintendi (who came to the majors w Moncada) and Devers (who was trailing him by 2 years in the minors ) tells me that Yoan needs a "growth spurt" in 2019. 

[caulfield12]

55 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

You've basically manufactured this entire narrative in your head and now you believe it as fact. When you say "we," what you mean is "I." 

QUOTE (SonofaRoache @ Apr 17, 2018 -> 08:47 AM) 

I will sit back and watch how the narrative changes now. Previously we were saying we'd compete for a playoff spot next year and a WS in 2020. If our team continues to progress slowly and play poorly, with the exception of a few pitchers, then those years need to be pushed back.

Even Hawk was saying 2020. If a lot goes right, next year they have a shot. It's not like you have to win 100 games to make the playoffs. But 2020 is probably more realistic.

From Dick Allen

 

Most were predicting at least low 70’s for wins this last March.  Not low 60’s or high 50’s, which was below the actual projected pace until the final two months of the season.  That narrative didn’t change until the middle of April.

 

Plus, everyone badly underestimated how putrid the entire AL Central would be after CLE, but the win total was still 5-10 lower than the consensus coming into the season on this particular board.

Edited October 25, 2018 by caulfield12

[Buehrle>Wood]

I really hate that people let the GM build expectations for them. They have no reason but to lower them.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

I really hate that people let the GM build expectations for them. They have no reason but to lower them.

As I said last year, and will say again,  the players aren't here yet.  It is insane to expect this core to be competitive,  and that is exactly what the GM saw.