Market/Financial Thread

[Heads22]

I ended up shifting my inheritance to a local advisor; I understand the ability to invest in low cost index funds, and I do so with my Roth and a brokerage account. I took my inherited IRA and inherited Roth and transferred them to that advisor. I guess my thinking is....my mom didn't get to live to retire. My dad was retired for five months. A family history would tell me that I may not live to 120 (though both my mom's parents are still alive, my dad's mom lived to 76 and his dad to 91). I want to be a responsible steward of the retirement funds they didn't get to spend (my brother and I split these).

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Chisoxfn said:

Someone else could have said creates new opportunities for investors...with some caveat around risks.  The entire headline has a completely slanted negative tone and is utter garbage.  There are a lot of investments in a 401K portfolio that can carry similar risks to that of a PE type of investment.  We can go ahead and have a conversation as to what makes sense for individual investors (more flexibility vs. less) but that headline is flat out fishing for clicks and bad journalism.  

Sure, but a headline with “new opportunities” or mentioning PE, what percentage of readers would even understand to click on it?

5%?  10%?

I doubt the writer even had the opportunity to choose the headline, there was probably an editor that decided.

Yahoo has been like this for years.  80-85% of the articles are just collected from other sites and redistributed there.   Most of their writing staff got laid off years ago.  It’s simply a matter of profitability, right?   It has shifted from newspaper layoffs to online aggregators laying off staff and that pressure will increase due to slashed advertising budgets.  Subscriptions to quality sites like The Atlantic are going up, but they’re still cutting and cutting staffers.  The only window of opportunity is slashing budgets for office space leasing by almost everyone working at home, but the crash in that market creates yet another array of problems, right?

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Sure, but a headline with “new opportunities” or mentioning PE, what percentage of readers would even understand to click on it?

5%?  10%?

I doubt the writer even had the opportunity to choose the headline, there was probably an editor that decided.

Yahoo has been like this for years.  80-85% of the articles are just collected from other sites and redistributed there.   Most of their writing staff got laid off years ago.  It’s simply a matter of profitability, right?   It has shifted from newspaper layoffs to online aggregators laying off staff and that pressure will increase due to slashed advertising budgets.  Subscriptions to quality sites like The Atlantic are going up, but they’re still cutting and cutting staffers.  The only window of opportunity is slashing budgets for office space leasing by almost everyone working at home, but the crash in that market creates yet another array of problems, right?

I get it - it is still click bait and masses will look at that headline and reach potentially a grossly inaccurate conclusion or at very least open article with a negative bias when reading it. 

I get it they want clicks - but I’d also tell you that isn’t what news and the media is supposed to be about. 

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I get it - it is still click bait and masses will look at that headline and reach potentially a grossly inaccurate conclusion or at very least open article with a negative bias when reading it. 

I get it they want clicks - but I’d also tell you that isn’t what news and the media is supposed to be about. 

Therein lies the problem with society in general today.

Nobody has the patience to actually read a real investigative piece anymore.  It’s all sound bites. The attention span of teenagers is falling by the year. 

When I was growing up, the majority of our parents subscribed to either Time, Newsweek or US News & World Report. WSJ, Forbes/Fortune or New York Times/WaPo for the “elites” of Iowa.  Maybe the Christian Science Monitor. At any rate, those first three mainstream publications aimed at the middle 65% of Americans on the political spectrum simply do not exist anymore.  They are instead People, US Weekly, Reader’s Digest/TV Guide (older Americans) and The National Inquirer.  There’s absolutely no interest in policy discussions or being wonkish.

The polarization has practically forced everyone to choose sides.  If you read a Rick Newman article at Yahoo Finance, you only need to go the comments section, and they always follow a reliable pattern.

 

Edited June 20, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-japans-jobless-rate-just-150343409.html
 

The New York Times

Why Japan's Jobless Rate Is Just 2.6% While the U.S.'s Has Soared

 

[he gone.]

On 6/19/2020 at 11:10 PM, caulfield12 said:

Therein lies the problem with society in general today.

Nobody has the patience to actually read a real investigative piece anymore.  It’s all sound bites. The attention span of teenagers is falling by the year. 

When I was growing up, the majority of our parents subscribed to either Time, Newsweek or US News & World Report. WSJ, Forbes/Fortune or New York Times/WaPo for the “elites” of Iowa.  Maybe the Christian Science Monitor. At any rate, those first three mainstream publications aimed at the middle 65% of Americans on the political spectrum simply do not exist anymore.  They are instead People, US Weekly, Reader’s Digest/TV Guide (older Americans) and The National Inquirer.  There’s absolutely no interest in policy discussions or being wonkish.

The polarization has practically forced everyone to choose sides.  If you read a Rick Newman article at Yahoo Finance, you only need to go the comments section, and they always follow a reliable pattern.

 

Meanwhile long form podcasting like Joe Rogan are more popular than ever ...

I really just don't think it's simple as saying "younger generation" this or that. these issues are complex. 

[he gone.]

Not really a question or conversation piece. I just want to say I think it's telling that the "financial thread" has been quieter than almost ever during supercharged QE and at a time when the government is pouring $700mm for a 30% equity stake of YRCW ... a company with a CCC credit rating. 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article243938152.html

 

The government in theory is either taking $700mm of our tax money, or printing $700mm (devaluing the $$) and flusing it down the toilet. Never mind that the company was sued by the department of justice just two years ago for fraudulent pricing. 

 

This is your government at work people. Meanwhile QE continues to path of dividing the classes more than ever. I read a piece from Ray Dalio noting that it's the worst class divide since 1930. Almost 100 years. 

 

Nobody is outraged. And it's because our education system never teaches even the basics of financial literacy. We focus on a whole curriculum of fluff and leave the important day to day stuff almost entirely out (health, exercise, mental health, money, basic tasks, etc.

[bmags]

lol

[southsider2k5]

18 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Not really a question or conversation piece. I just want to say I think it's telling that the "financial thread" has been quieter than almost ever during supercharged QE and at a time when the government is pouring $700mm for a 30% equity stake of YRCW ... a company with a CCC credit rating. 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article243938152.html

 

The government in theory is either taking $700mm of our tax money, or printing $700mm (devaluing the $$) and flusing it down the toilet. Never mind that the company was sued by the department of justice just two years ago for fraudulent pricing. 

 

This is your government at work people. Meanwhile QE continues to path of dividing the classes more than ever. I read a piece from Ray Dalio noting that it's the worst class divide since 1930. Almost 100 years. 

 

Nobody is outraged. And it's because our education system never teaches even the basics of financial literacy. We focus on a whole curriculum of fluff and leave the important day to day stuff almost entirely out (health, exercise, mental health, money, basic tasks, etc.

If your argument is that the federal government made some stupid mistakes in an effort to run cash into the economy to prevent its collapse, I don't think anyone would argue any different.

Of all of the things I am pissed of at this federal government for, this is somewhere around page 672 of my list.  If there was ever a time for QE, this is it. It could have been done better for sure, but getting cash into the economy quickly was the key here.

The real problem was the fact that the fed had kept interest rates artificially low during the "GREATEST ECONOMY EVER" and had done nothing to empty their books of the previous QEs, nor had they done anything to return the economy to a state where the private sector was primarily responsible for growth instead of using bodies of the federal government to prop it up artificially.  The fact that we were still running trillion dollar deficits on top of everything else is almost criminal.  Now when we actually NEED to be running huge deficits and need real Fed intervention, the tools are limited and muted due to the waste of the last decade.  This is the time to be propping up the economy.  Honestly, we should be running much higher unemployment and government payment programs so we can minimize COVID exposures by having as many people as possible stay home.  Now we have to tell people to go back to work and die because the federal government is impotent to protects its people financially AND medically.  People have to choose one or the other.

 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

If your argument is that the federal government made some stupid mistakes in an effort to run cash into the economy to prevent its collapse, I don't think anyone would argue any different.

Of all of the things I am pissed of at this federal government for, this is somewhere around page 672 of my list.  If there was ever a time for QE, this is it. It could have been done better for sure, but getting cash into the economy quickly was the key here.

The real problem was the fact that the fed had kept interest rates artificially low during the "GREATEST ECONOMY EVER" and had done nothing to empty their books of the previous QEs, nor had they done anything to return the economy to a state where the private sector was primarily responsible for growth instead of using bodies of the federal government to prop it up artificially.  The fact that we were still running trillion dollar deficits on top of everything else is almost criminal.  Now when we actually NEED to be running huge deficits and need real Fed intervention, the tools are limited and muted due to the waste of the last decade.  This is the time to be propping up the economy.  Honestly, we should be running much higher unemployment and government payment programs so we can minimize COVID exposures by having as many people as possible stay home.  Now we have to tell people to go back to work and die because the federal government is impotent to protects its people financially AND medically.  People have to choose one or the other.

 

Well no, the real problems were that we allowed an enormous $2 trillion bubble to form in the economy to keep it going during the Bush years, and then when it burst in 2009 we were more concerned with how inflation was always one step away (it wasn't) than with the gigantic hole in the economy (yes I'm still bitter). Thus the most we could do was an $800 billion stimulus to fill that $2 trillion hole. So even though the economy was growing it was still a very weak recovery after 2009, and interest rates had to remain low because anything else would push the economy back into recession.

[southsider2k5]

41 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well no, the real problems were that we allowed an enormous $2 trillion bubble to form in the economy to keep it going during the Bush years, and then when it burst in 2009 we were more concerned with how inflation was always one step away (it wasn't) than with the gigantic hole in the economy (yes I'm still bitter). Thus the most we could do was an $800 billion stimulus to fill that $2 trillion hole. So even though the economy was growing it was still a very weak recovery after 2009, and interest rates had to remain low because anything else would push the economy back into recession.

This might be plausible if you were to ignore how much QE the fed undertook after this.

[bmags]

23 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This might be plausible if you were to ignore how much QE the fed undertook after this.

QE is nice but it isn’t going to plug the demand shortfall like policy would.

And I quibble with the idea that the fed didn’t wind down their assets, they did and rightfully stopped. Then coronavirus came, and they’ve done a good job.

Apparently we want a really strong dollar in a depression though ?

[StrangeSox]

Just send everyone a check every month until this thing is over imo

[southsider2k5]

38 minutes ago, bmags said:

QE is nice but it isn’t going to plug the demand shortfall like policy would.

And I quibble with the idea that the fed didn’t wind down their assets, they did and rightfully stopped. Then coronavirus came, and they’ve done a good job.

Apparently we want a really strong dollar in a depression though ?

2009 QE, not 2020 QE.

[bmags]

34 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

2009 QE, not 2020 QE.

Sorry. I was responding in that paragraph to your previous post about being angry that they didn’t unwind more during the good economy but didn’t quote it.

 

[gatnom]

On 7/2/2020 at 6:54 PM, bmags said:

Sorry. I was responding in that paragraph to your previous post about being angry that they didn’t unwind more during the good economy but didn’t quote it.

 

Hard to know exactly what you mean by "unwind more", but, as far as the balance sheet is concerned, any offloading of the treasuries from 2009-2014 was completely erased by the easing of the repo rate spike last September: graph.

[he gone.]

On 7/2/2020 at 5:16 PM, bmags said:

QE is nice but it isn’t going to plug the demand shortfall like policy would.

And I quibble with the idea that the fed didn’t wind down their assets, they did and rightfully stopped. Then coronavirus came, and they’ve done a good job.

Apparently we want a really strong dollar in a depression though ?

I don't think one can argue "good" or "bad" job yet. And I'm not here to say either way, thats determined over time.

I'm glad you expanded on your "lol" only post - because frankly, that's about as low brow and as an un-nuanced response as one can give. Sure SOME of what the Fed is doing right now is good. And anytime you have a MASSIVE issue like this there's going to be a ton of fraud and misspending that gets amplified by individuals & whatever their viewpoint may be. Anti-fed people will pile on those decisions. Just like pro-fed people will say they're doing a fantastic job. The truth is always somewhere in the middle. 

However, my post was in relation to a $700mm loan to a CCC credit that was on its way to bankruptcy. A company that has an aging fleet, is CCC rated, has deep rooted union issues in a sector that frankly runs too thin to support union jobs/pay/benefits, had to get a year long waiver from their banks on covenants, and was sued by the government just two years ago for fraudulent pricing. This was the first real public loan made outside of airlines and they chose YRC ... to me, that's a problem. If you don't see the issue there ... and if you can't call that "bad" spending? 

But the cat's out of the bag, and to me stories like this are just going to keep rolling in. The issue from my perspective is that we're well on our way to becoming Japan. You can mark this down for 10 years from now, but the Fed is on their way to becoming the top shareholder of the market. This isn't just a covid response, the Fed and Treasury are going to become more and more intertwined. Ultimately i think you see a 20 year stagnant market in terms of share prices. I also think there will be a squeeze north, maybe even where the DOW hits 40,000. I can see that as the top, but then sit in 2035 ... and 40,000 as well. Shit it's finance, and the world. They're very complex issues that are tough to explain over a message board, but if i want one point across it's that the Fed should stay out of companies like YRC ... let the market decide the market. Once you interrupt that then the markets aren't natural anymore (which is my problem going backwards). And from there you get a frankenstein market. 

 

[caulfield12]

Q2 GDP annualized, quarter over quarter: -34.5% expected vs. -5.0% in Q1

Q2 Personal consumption: -34.5% expected vs. -6.8% in Q1

Core Personal consumption expenditures, quarter over quarter: -0.9% expected vs. 1.7% in Q1

If GDP comes in at a 34.5% annualized contraction as expected, it would mark by far the worst plunge ever recorded, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data spanning back to 1947. Before the pandemic, the worst GDP print on record was in the first quarter of 1958, when GDP fell 10.0% on an annualized basis.

US economic activity contracted by 5.0% in the first quarter of 2020, which captured only the start of the coronavirus pandemic and business shutdowns in March.

Estimates for the margin of decline in second-quarter GDP spanned a relatively wide range. On the low end, several economists expected GDP sank as much as 40%. On the high end, Mizuho Securities economists estimated GDP declined by 25% in the second quarter. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s closely watched GDPNow tool forecast a 32.1% decline in second-quarter GDP, as of Wednesday’s estimate.

[Dick Allen]

Another 1.43 million jobless claims. Didn't Jared , as he was patting himself on the back, tell us we would really be humming by July?

[he gone.]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Another 1.43 million jobless claims. Didn't Jared , as he was patting himself on the back, tell us we would really be humming by July?

aint nothing going to be humming for a long, long time. half decade long. only reason things are as "good" as they are right now is because all of the propping up of the economy by the Fed and the general public not having a baseline understanding of economics or financial wherewithal. Corporations aren't bringing back these jobs ... this is actually going to look good in comparison to 2 years from now in my opinion. 

 

[he gone.]

On 7/2/2020 at 2:02 PM, bmags said:

lol

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/us/politics/yrc-coronavirus-relief-funds.html

 

I mean, this article basically highlights everything i said a few weeks ago. maybe your LOL response won't be so snarky this time. But whatever, sounds like that $700mm was put to good use. Can't think of a better way to utilize that $700mm at all. Nope none. 

[caulfield12]

8 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/us/politics/yrc-coronavirus-relief-funds.html

 

I mean, this article basically highlights everything i said a few weeks ago. maybe your LOL response won't be so snarky this time. But whatever, sounds like that $700mm was put to good use. Can't think of a better way to utilize that $700mm at all. Nope none. 

Worse than Hunter BidenGate-Burisma...yet somehow fitting for this admin

 

The relationship between Apollo and the White House runs deep. In 2017, Josh Harris, a founder of Apollo, advised the Trump administration on infrastructure policy and discussed a possible White House job with Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser. That same year, Apollo lent $184 million to Mr. Kushner’s family real estate firm, Kushner Companies, to refinance the mortgage on a Chicago skyscraper.

Since the pandemic, Apollo has been lobbying the Trump administration to allow broader access to an emergency Federal Reserve lending program.

The government lifeline to YRC was a boon to Apollo, which might have been faced with liquidating its decaying trucking assets if the company was forced to close.

Apollo, which is YRC’s biggest creditor, said it was not involved in YRC’s decision to seek the Treasury Department loan and noted that it is one of several lenders invested in the company. However, a spokeswoman acknowledged that it was advised of the government loan and made changes to its own loan terms with YRC to accommodate it.

 

 

[bmags]

13 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/us/politics/yrc-coronavirus-relief-funds.html

 

I mean, this article basically highlights everything i said a few weeks ago. maybe your LOL response won't be so snarky this time. But whatever, sounds like that $700mm was put to good use. Can't think of a better way to utilize that $700mm at all. Nope none. 

So that was the treasury, not the fed, and you can either have speed or precision. When the entire global economy is coming to a screeching halt, loans are going to go to companies that can be picked apart. But we already see the issue when congress starts to focus on precision, those that actually need the money have to wait months with no support so some vulnerable politicians don’t get hit with a negative ad.

[he gone.]

On 8/4/2020 at 8:26 AM, bmags said:

So that was the treasury, not the fed, and you can either have speed or precision. When the entire global economy is coming to a screeching halt, loans are going to go to companies that can be picked apart. But we already see the issue when congress starts to focus on precision, those that actually need the money have to wait months with no support so some vulnerable politicians don’t get hit with a negative ad.

The treasury and fed are merging as one in the same & it's happening right before our eyes. 

And this was neither speed nor precision. This was Donnie giving his friends new trucks. The CEO sits on the Economic Stimulus Board, gets in the ear of Mnunchin & they make up a fake reason why this business is needed. In this case - delivering food ..... yes, because how can you find another company to do that? And as if the food wouldn't be delivered during Ch. 11 BK. Those are revenue producing contracts & would continue. What happened here is YRC just got free trucks from the government. aka tax money if you want to believe that. but really from printing/devaluing our currency.  The company is still going to go go BK in 2-4 years, however now they're going to come out the other side with a new fleet setting up Mr. Hawkins for a nice pay day on the other end. It's quite literally a joke and they're not even trying to hide it. 

 

Its an indefensible use of funds clear and simple. And I can guarantee it will continue to happen because not enough people understand finance. Donnie is gonna continue to drop money into Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. under the guise that it's for the good of the economy when he really doesn't give to flying f's about anything other than trying to buy this election and remain in power. Not saying the other side is any better - its the same. I mean, hell this stimulus thing is a joke - i've called it going back to may/june. The second stimulus was always going to be held up as long as possible and as close to the election with both side blaming the other and then when it finally is sent out -- they both will try and take credit. They don't give a sh*t about their constituents, they care about taking credit and remaining in power to they can leverage their power for personal wealth. The next stimulus will be approved in 2-4 weeks, then sent out 2-4 weeks after that. They want the money to hit bank accounts in October so that its next to the election. This way it coincides with stock market pumping, etc. to act like all is good and well. 

[caulfield12]

More taxpayer bailouts/subsidies for Boeing headed your way...

1 hr 38 min ago

Here's what we know about the flight

From CNN's Pamela Boykof

The Air India Express flight that crashed on landing, Air India Express flight IX 1344, departed Dubai at 2:14 p.m. local time, according to the website FlightAware.com

Air India Express is a wholly owned subsidiary of Air India, according to its website. 

It operates 25 Boeing 737-800 NG aircraft.