Market/Financial Thread

[Texsox]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

High wage immigration has very substantial limitations on it as well. Green cards take years to get even when people have jobs. It costs tens of thousands of dollars in time and legal fees to make that happen for most people.

Which highlights why our immigration system makes economic sense for doctors, engineers, professors but not common labor. The focus seems to be to protect the minimum wage jobs from immigrants. 

I've said for years we need a guest worker program similar to the H1B visa but cheaper and easier to process for lower wage jobs. 

[southsider2k5]

On 8/6/2022 at 6:27 PM, Texsox said:

I've always found it strange we put all our efforts into stopping minimum wage immigration while ignoring high wage immigration. 

Because most people who are anti immigration are also low wage.

[Texsox]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Because most people who are anti immigration are also low wage.

Good point. 

 

[The Beast]

1 hour ago, Texsox said:

Which highlights why our immigration system makes economic sense for doctors, engineers, professors but not common labor. The focus seems to be to protect the minimum wage jobs from immigrants. 

I've said for years we need a guest worker program similar to the H1B visa but cheaper and easier to process for lower wage jobs. 

If I remember correctly, don’t some of those professional jobs require professional degrees here too? The most ridiculous part about protecting minimum wage jobs from immigrants is that there are jobs they take that other people will not take. So the anti immigration folks don’t have lots to stand on with their arguments.

Use a guest worker program in the way you describe and see what happens to the economy.

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Because most people who are anti immigration are also low wage.

Like it or not, they will be the minority over time.

[caulfield12]

Can anyone figure out how to buy AmorePacific (Korean cosmetics holding company) through etrade?…I have searched everywhere.  Refused Charles Schwab/Ricketts/TD Ameritrade connection.

Also, does anyone have any arguments for VTSAX vs. VWRL World Total Markets/s ETF?

Edited August 22, 2022 by caulfield12

[CentralChamps21]

Ended up in the middle of a student loan forgiveness conversation and thought I'd run it by the experts here.

Apparently there might be student loan forgiveness of up to $10k for people making < $125k. One of the people in the conversation makes > $125k but his wife makes < $125k and she's the one with the loans.

Is there a going to be a different limit for married couples? If not, would switching filing status to married filing separately work?

I had nothing to add since I've never filed a tax return.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Ended up in the middle of a student loan forgiveness conversation and thought I'd run it by the experts here.

Apparently there might be student loan forgiveness of up to $10k for people making < $125k. One of the people in the conversation makes > $125k but his wife makes < $125k and she's the one with the loans.

Is there a going to be a different limit for married couples? If not, would switching filing status to married filing separately work?

I had nothing to add since I've never filed a tax return.

they will just need to wait for details.

[Marqhead]

12 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Ended up in the middle of a student loan forgiveness conversation and thought I'd run it by the experts here.

Apparently there might be student loan forgiveness of up to $10k for people making < $125k. One of the people in the conversation makes > $125k but his wife makes < $125k and she's the one with the loans.

Is there a going to be a different limit for married couples? If not, would switching filing status to married filing separately work?

I had nothing to add since I've never filed a tax return.

What I've found is that "generally" if there is an income limit for single-filers it is doubled for married filing jointly. 

We had a similar situation for my wife's income-based student loan repayment, we filled separately for a few years so the payment wouldn't jump. 

As mentioned, there will surely be some fine print items to consider if and when it is formally announced. 

 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Marqhead said:

What I've found is that "generally" if there is an income limit for single-filers it is doubled for married filing jointly. 

We had a similar situation for my wife's income-based student loan repayment, we filled separately for a few years so the payment wouldn't jump. 

As mentioned, there will surely be some fine print items to consider if and when it is formally announced. 

 

Yeah, I know nothing about this new program, but that has been the style for the last few years for sure.

[Harry Chappas]

Can someone explain to me why they just don't make college loans interest free instead of forgiving them?  

 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

Can someone explain to me why they just don't make college loans interest free instead of forgiving them?  

 

I believe the short answer is that it would take an act of Congress to change the rules like that. For some reason, Congress has previously given the president power to forgive large chunks of student loans without consulting Congress. Thus, the President can do this with a stroke of his pen. Changing the payback rules in a way like that might be more fair, as could any number of other paths to improve the student loan issue, but anything other than a large loan forgivement requires a Senate Supermajority to accomplish, which will not happen under this Congress.

[Harry Chappas]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

I believe the short answer is that it would take an act of Congress to change the rules like that. For some reason, Congress has previously given the president power to forgive large chunks of student loans without consulting Congress. Thus, the President can do this with a stroke of his pen. Changing the payback rules in a way like that might be more fair, as could any number of other paths to improve the student loan issue, but anything other than a large loan forgivement requires a Senate Supermajority to accomplish, which will not happen under this Congress.

Sadly that makes sense. Thanks for the info

[Texsox]

12 hours ago, Harry Chappas said:

Can someone explain to me why they just don't make college loans interest free instead of forgiving them?  

 

I teach this.

By law, typically in June, Congress sets the rates based on the Treasury note auction in May. 

That might not be as helpful to borrowers as it appears. Over the past decades college costs have risen as fast as loan money has become available. Basically if rates went to zero, in theory students could borrow more, so universities would award their  professors huge raises* and adjust tuition. 

*More likely they will improve the eye candy with better cafeteria, resort pools, and other entertainment options. The net would be same payments with more debt. 

[Texsox]

17 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Ended up in the middle of a student loan forgiveness conversation and thought I'd run it by the experts here.

Apparently there might be student loan forgiveness of up to $10k for people making < $125k. One of the people in the conversation makes > $125k but his wife makes < $125k and she's the one with the loans.

Is there a going to be a different limit for married couples? If not, would switching filing status to married filing separately work?

I had nothing to add since I've never filed a tax return.

If I had a guess there would be a graduated plan so that those at $125,000 to say $150,000 would have 80% forgiven and so on. Lots of married voters earning over $125,000. 

[StrangeSox]

Just remove the cap and bump the upper class tax bracket up 0.5% or something if you really want to recoup the difference for high earners. Avoids all these messy graduated plans and arbitrary cutoffs!

[bmags]

250k joint filers @CentralChamps21

[he gone.]

Yep, my guess was what is likely to be confirmed - $250k all in for filing jointly. 

Also agree with above ... fine and well for some, but in general this $10k is more or less Biden following through (right before midterms, shocking!) but to a lesser degree than a campaign promise. Trying to play both sides where he can get the most votes without pissing off too many people. As mentioned ... it doesn't fix the underlying issue (still going to be a problem in the future) nor does it alleviate the loans. Best case scenario for scum that run based on egos and votes. keep you on the hook so you can continue to make empty promises! 

[Tony]

29 minutes ago, he gone. said:

Yep, my guess was what is likely to be confirmed - $250k all in for filing jointly. 

Also agree with above ... fine and well for some, but in general this $10k is more or less Biden following through (right before midterms, shocking!) but to a lesser degree than a campaign promise. Trying to play both sides where he can get the most votes without pissing off too many people. As mentioned ... it doesn't fix the underlying issue (still going to be a problem in the future) nor does it alleviate the loans. Best case scenario for scum that run based on egos and votes. keep you on the hook so you can continue to make empty promises! 

It's not a great solution to the bigger problem. I don't disagree with a lot of what you said, but at the end of the day, there are multiple people I know, some in their 50's (!!) that are still paying off debt and this will make their lives significantly better. 

[he gone.]

agree. i'm not seeing a dime on this on the loans i inherited via marriage ... hold zero ill will. I am happy for everybody who is getting relief. In all likelihood I'll be paying into my 50's out of my paychecks. them the breaks...

[he gone.]

On 8/15/2020 at 9:08 AM, he gone. said:

so although one may argue the Fed has done a good job during the crisis (TBD), what you can't do is audit the Fed. They're printing money now, at the expense of the future, something they've been doing for sometime. Now that's all fine and well now, but there's no such thing as a free money tree. debt is money we owe and that will come at the expense of future generations. inflation. the reason we can somewhat get away with it is the fact we have the global reserve currency - also the rest of the world is just as fucked as us. monetary policy changed in the early 70's and has generally been pretty of hand. everybody likes to spend before they have it, that includes the government. so you have governments who are basically saying their money is good, and to trust them, but really nothing backing it outside of the power of your military. The us dollar is essentially the power of our military. It is also powerful because it's what oil contracts are settled in. There's a reason we haven't been diving head first into green energy - because for the last 100 years our power is also the dollar/settling oil in USD. we fund and give guns to the middle east, look for allies, and basically control the oil for the world. it's the reason we go to wars, it's the reason we're in everybody's business and it's worked out tremendously - now none of this is forward thinking or sustainable for a long game

It almost makes you stop and think. Like more inflation was inevitable. And that we'd be going to war over oil/settling in the US Dollar. 

Lucky for us, we're in an incredible position as a country if we don't implode on ourselves based on  geography, our military, demographics, being able to support ourselves with our own oil supply and still have ample partners outside of BRICS to be just fine. The demographics of china, russia, etc. are POOR. hell, most of europe is completely screwed too. We're the best of the worst and its why you see the dollar succeeding so much. only problem is the stronger the dollar, the worse it actually is in the end. 

Should be a very interesting macro environment go forward. I ultimately still think we have another leg down before a rounded bottom and then a strong recovery, money printing, stimulus, etc. that blows up this bubble one last time. It's just how long does that bubble have? Each bubble has a shorter and shorter lifespan because kicking the can down the road can only work for so long before it erodes human trust. What you see across Europe and in other countries will ultimately happen at home too, just have a bit more room to run. Eventually you have to face the music or change the game entirely. 

[he gone.]

On 9/2/2020 at 9:24 AM, he gone. said:

RDFN - Redfin - when you think about Millennial's they're all entering the phase of owning homes, upgrading homes, etc. The real estate market is ripe for efficiency. Seems very outdated to have to show up in person, sign 1,000 documents, pay a real estate agent to show a home, etc. Back in the day a good real estate agent was very helpful because they set the market, they had the know of the houses going up, they had access to pictures, MLS, etc. etc. The network they built was key to the whole process. They held the data. Now think about it -- first thing we do is go search Zillow and Redfin to look at photos. they, like google, amazon, etc. gather all the info, the comps, etc. The agent will continue to die out, just like when i bought my home- what did my agent do? unlock the door? Paperwork was prepared by them, but via computers & desk jobs, and docusign you can complete the whole process and save clients money. I see this as a nice long term play. I bought at like $28 or something, but i can see this thing hitting $100+. We're not going backwards, so its really just a question of if RDFN can continue to hold market share.

BIGC - I'll say i don't know nearly enough about this stock. But I will say that Chamath Palihapitya gave his blessing on it. I will keep my eye on it and want to learn more. it took a jump from like $70 to $120 and back to $100 in the last few days. Need to research before jumping in.

USCR - this is another one of my favorites. It's staring me right in the face and think it's going to explode post-election. Both sides will want to get people back to work. Infrastructure has and will continue to be a very friendly topic via both party lines. USCR continues to be profitable now and I think the uptick of work via government stimulus will be enormous as they try and get people back to work. Sitting at $27 now, very easily can be a $75 stock in 2-4 years

AMZN - no need to say anything here. A few years ago i bought this to serve as my bank balance instead of holding in banks. AMZN isn't going anywhere anytime soon. They're the Sears of the last generation. Have a decade+ of run-up ahead. 

SQ - this was my number one holding pre-pandemic, and then i sold off 70% of my shares .... at $70. It's now at $160. yikes. I'm not sure I can recommend at $160, but i really do think long term that Jack Dorsey gets it. He's doing fractional share purchasing, hes enabling bitcoin purchases, he's doing lending to small businesses, he's got his product in how many small businesses (which is what led me to sell during pandemic). The product is slick - great user interface. simple. the younger generation prefers it to venmo, paypal, etc. the boosts are great ... i use it every week. 10% off groceries when the bill is $75 or more .... just for using the cash app card as my debit card. it's free $7.50 each time. Simply put I love Square and kick myself for letting the pandemic get in the way of my long term goals/outlook. I ultimately think Jack will look to enable friction less bitcoin purchasing once the price goes up and then stabilizes. they have all the tools, the wallet, the ability, the small business, it's just flipping the switch to where they handle the backroom stuff. this company has the ability to be the "new bank" .... it may sound crazy. but this is my most bullish stock over the next 10 years.  

CDE -  Coeur mining -- gold/silver miner. poorly run out of chicago. they have 4-5 good mines and just one stinker up in Canada that has ravaged their balance sheet and cash flow statement. but if you believe in gold and silver long term, these guys are ripe for the picking. their idled mine will take about 1.5 years to get going, once that thing is running, and if it coincides with $3,000 gold and $50 silver? watch out. this is the type of stock that can go 5X. However that being said, they've been circling the drain for better half of last 5 years.

MOS - Mosaic - safe stock. fertilizer for crops. its not going anywhere. trading low because of a poor last year, this year will be good. if youre looking for a safe return. i like them.

SIX - SixFlags - simply put they have a nice balance sheet and can continue to ride out the pandemic. As long as you believe that things will go back to normal soon enough then they should be a nice buy. they have a good cash balance to ride out 2020 and 2021. 

CCL - it follows the same logic. Carnival prints money via their system of paying foreigners like $5 a day for work, dumping waste into the ocean, etc. i personally hate cruises, but people love them and they print money. i personally chose carnival because they're the Walmart version of cruises. something like a Royal Caribbean or Virgin focus on higher price points and that's awesome too, think they'll perform well, but their clientele in my opinion are more likely to be slower to return to cruises. I think the walmart crowd may jump right back in for a cheap vacation and buffets. 

BYD/MGM - both are casino stocks - Boyd Gaming and MGM. Sports gambling and casinos aren't going anywhere. States are strapped for money and casinos provide that. Both have cleaner balance sheets than some of the over leveraged casino stocks

PENN - which leads me to PENN, super overvalued right now, or is it? Same concept, but they have a leverage balance sheet and are trading super well because of Dave Portnoy. I shared my thesis with a co-worker a while back and he bought at $4 during the downturn ... sold at $14. it's not $56..... yikes. I bought in mid-20's a while ago and just keep holding. Say what you will on barstool, but it's inevitable that it'll continue to grow. you look at the athletes that are 18, 20, 22 years old. They grew up with barstool. what once was a hard interview to get with these personalities, they now get on the daily. it's an increasingly social aspect to sports with social media. barstool owns that like fox, nbc, espn cannot. so same logic as the casino stocks, but i think you tie in barstool and the media aspect to it? podcasts, twitch, etc. they do it, and do it well. i can see a scenario where penn, almost like tesla being a car company now .... fast forward and tesla to me is going to be more than a car company. i think penn has the chance, if executed well to be a media company/entertainment company that really explodes. 

PINS - pinterest - simply put they are data company. the drive business to companies like wayfair. young people and technology aren't going away. pinterest hasn't done the best job yet at capitalizing and making revenue as much as they should, but if they figure it out, can take off. 

CRLBF - Cresco Labs - a bit of a dart at the wall. following same logic - weed stocks arent going away. states are broke, and more broke after the pandemic. weed will be legal nationally soon and we'll see what happens. maybe new entrants with pockets wash out these type of guys completely, but i think it's more likely you see consolidation and some of these stocks being acquired  at a premium. So i'll ride it and see what happens. this probably has the biggest basket of outcomes.

On a separate note, i hope you didn't listen to this advice haha. 

Trading teaches lessons. Most of my macro views have been spot on regarding the overall turn back into commodities as equities were well overvalued against historic numbers. inflation. wars. oil. etc. 

But what I have been learning (a very expensive lesson) is buy when the fed prints, sell when they dont. Dont test trend lines. no reason to buy now until we retest resistance and push through. you may lose some money not timing the tops or bottoms, but better to leave some on the table than to try to get greedy. 

i still like the idea behind most of my stock choices, however it's less about a company, more about entry points. Ultimately money still has to be put to use and they've killed the bond market plus the whole world is in shambles with the US and dollar being the strongest. I still see inflows into the stock market at some point. That said, there remains too much optimism (in my opinion) at this point. Still people talking about buying a dip. I think the additional leg down kills most "retail" and once that capitulates is when i buy. may not be the total bottom (especially if you zoom out) but I think it's a good enough one. 

 

Still loving copper, gold, silver. Still think REIT's and real estate do well in a stagflation period. still like carnival. like some natural gas plays. unity stock. RYAN stock. and think gambling does well ... in bad times people tend to gamble more and in times of fiscal debt governments will look for more spigots of money. 

[Balta1701]

Apparently I could have put this in the celebrity death thread. Decent chance that one of the next few days we wake up and Twitter has gone permanently offline.

[Texsox]

On 11/17/2022 at 9:24 PM, Balta1701 said:

Apparently I could have put this in the celebrity death thread. Decent chance that one of the next few days we wake up and Twitter has gone permanently offline.

I'm thinking too big and well backed to fail. But it would be interesting. I've almost stopped using the platform. 

[he gone.]

On 7/2/2020 at 1:58 PM, he gone. said:

Not really a question or conversation piece. I just want to say I think it's telling that the "financial thread" has been quieter than almost ever during supercharged QE and at a time when the government is pouring $700mm for a 30% equity stake of YRCW ... a company with a CCC credit rating. 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article243938152.html

 

The government in theory is either taking $700mm of our tax money, or printing $700mm (devaluing the $$) and flusing it down the toilet. Never mind that the company was sued by the department of justice just two years ago for fraudulent pricing. 

 

This is your government at work people. Meanwhile QE continues to path of dividing the classes more than ever. I read a piece from Ray Dalio noting that it's the worst class divide since 1930. Almost 100 years. 

 

Nobody is outraged. And it's because our education system never teaches even the basics of financial literacy. We focus on a whole curriculum of fluff and leave the important day to day stuff almost entirely out (health, exercise, mental health, money, basic tasks, etc.

Someone go look up yellow…. 
$500mm+ of our money was flushed down the toilet. Add up every one of the boards posters tax returns plus their entire family for years and we wouldn’t sniff $500mm in taxes. It was given to yellow becasue the ceo was friends w trump and was part of his “economic” recovery board. A total gift. They get a new fleet of trucks, go bankrupt. And reorganize the other side w a better Balance sheet and a better fleet. in between time they won’t pay their pensions, their worker comp claims, etc etc. nobody will care still. There’s so much corruption that the citizens don’t even fight back anymore. It’ll just continue to grow 
 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/yellow-corp-fails-to-pay-into-pension-fund-triggering-possible-strike/ar-AA1e4GdT

[he gone.]

On 12/11/2020 at 12:53 PM, Bob Sacamano said:

I wish I would have bought more shares of Disney when it was at $80 back in March. God dammit.

Here’s your chance