Market/Financial Thread

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Market was at roughly 20,000 in January, 2017.    About 75% of gains in the last 3+ years gone, poof.

Mnuchin, S.Miller and Kushner back to the drawing board.

 

That said, financial crisis was roughly 14000 to 6600 fall.

I’m morbidly curious if we might hit the “all trading stops” break point.

[caulfield12]

28 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I’m morbidly curious if we might hit the “all trading stops” break point.

The S&P futures are supposed to stop at 5%.   The way this is going, we might see 13% breaker during regular trading, but 20% is almost impossible to fathom, which would result in a full stoppage until end of the day.

Like trying to catch a falling knife, as they say.

The guy on CNBC predicting 35-50% fall...which seemed insane at the time...seems more and more plausible if we end up in a similar situation to Italy, which is an economy of similar size to California.

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by caulfield12

[Y2HH]

While it's impossible to gauge markets, this is likely a once in a decade opportunity. A month ago people were buying Disney @ 153$, and it's currently trading @96$. If you thought it was worth 153$, it's surly worth 96$.

While I'm not a Disney guy, simply because their dividend is trash, a few things I am buying as the market sinks (a bit at a time) -- BP, WFC, OXY, CCL, IBM, UAL

The speculative idea here is to find industries that will be hardest hit by the oil/energy issues combined with the Corona effect, such as air/cruise lines ... while also investing in some safer stuff like Wells Fargo and IBM -- which are paying out MASSIVE dividends, and would still be paying out very nice dividends even in the event they cut them.

I wouldn't recommend anything all at once (this is trying to time the market), just take little nibbles as it falls/fluctuates.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 hours ago, Y2HH said:

While it's impossible to gauge markets, this is likely a once in a decade opportunity. A month ago people were buying Disney @ 153$, and it's currently trading @96$. If you thought it was worth 153$, it's surly worth 96$.

While I'm not a Disney guy, simply because their dividend is trash, a few things I am buying as the market sinks (a bit at a time) -- BP, WFC, OXY, CCL, IBM, UAL

The speculative idea here is to find industries that will be hardest hit by the oil/energy issues combined with the Corona effect, such as air/cruise lines ... while also investing in some safer stuff like Wells Fargo and IBM -- which are paying out MASSIVE dividends, and would still be paying out very nice dividends even in the event they cut them.

I wouldn't recommend anything all at once (this is trying to time the market), just take little nibbles as it falls/fluctuates.

Disney is a no-brainer at $93. Just bought some shares. Thought about waiting it out to see if it gets lower and if it does, I might just buy a few more anyway.

Edited March 12, 2020 by soxfan2014

[Y2HH]

18 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Disney is a no-brainer at $93. Just bought some shares. Thought about waiting it out to see if it gets lower and if it does, I might just buy a few more anyway.

The only way to "play" this, is to buy little bits as it falls, rather than trying to catch the falling knife all at once, and plan to hold it for the long term. The market is acting quite irrational right now, and you can see this by how everything is falling concurrently, which makes no sense.

Usually, when stocks fall, things like gold and bonds rise -- but the opposite is happening, and even safe havens are falling apart. Seeing this makes me feel that fear and panic has hit the streets and the suckers are unloaded their stuff at steep losses.

As a rather brilliant investor once said, when others are greedy, be fearful ... and when others are fearful, be greedy.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Y2HH

[The Beast]

I have never been involved with the stock market but I have thought about investing. I will probably speak to a financial advisor about some low risk options, but in the meantime, I was considering buying one or a few of these stocks to invest in. What would anyone suggest for how to go about doing this and what to buy?

Abbvie

Procter and Gamble

UPS

Wells Fargo

Gilead

Kroger

Costco

Walmart

AutoZone

Netflix

[caulfield12]

20 minutes ago, The Beast said:

I have never been involved with the stock market but I have thought about investing. I will probably speak to a financial advisor about some low risk options, but in the meantime, I was considering buying one or a few of these stocks to invest in. What would anyone suggest for how to go about doing this and what to buy?

Abbvie

Procter and Gamble

UPS

Wells Fargo

Gilead

Kroger

Costco

Walmart

AutoZone

Netflix

I wouldn’t touch UPS now, or Fed Ex/DHL...

Zoom would be good, videoconferencing will be key in the next months.  NetEase/Activision Blizzard...gaming companies with online platforms.  Alibaba and Ten Cent are well positioned to quickly recover here in China.  Online education platforms.  INO, with more research into it.  Disney, due to the strength of Disney+ and an eventual return to profitability with one of the best brands in the business.  Coke or Pepsi.  Be careful with the financial industry, those higher dividends might be cut.  Verizon.  
 

Any of the Vanguard Funds, 500 Index, vivax, twsax, etc.

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

Fidelity changed their whole splash page to not show you account balances and daily loss/gains, lol

[raBBit]

We will see Thursday's lows again and we will fly past them. The carnage is nowhere near done.

For those who understand the markets and trading, you know your options to hedge. For those of you in your 40's and 50's with significant money in your 401k you should really work to understand your hedge options because there is a lot of money to be lost.

For those of you who don't have any understanding of the markets (and really everyone), show up to work everyday (or work remotely) with the best attitude possible. Get in early. Stay late. Make good with your coworker you have issues with. Drop your complaints about however you feel you're being slighted or how the workplace is stacked against. Ask your boss is there anything you can do to help her/him before leaving for the day. The recency bias may go a long way when employers are tasked with tough decisions - and they will be. 

Hope all is well with everyone. Understand your risks. Be vigilant. 

[The Beast]

On 3/14/2020 at 1:16 PM, raBBit said:

We will see Thursday's lows again and we will fly past them. The carnage is nowhere near done.

For those who understand the markets and trading, you know your options to hedge. For those of you in your 40's and 50's with significant money in your 401k you should really work to understand your hedge options because there is a lot of money to be lost.

For those of you who don't have any understanding of the markets (and really everyone), show up to work everyday (or work remotely) with the best attitude possible. Get in early. Stay late. Make good with your coworker you have issues with. Drop your complaints about however you feel you're being slighted or how the workplace is stacked against. Ask your boss is there anything you can do to help her/him before leaving for the day. The recency bias may go a long way when employers are tasked with tough decisions - and they will be. 

Hope all is well with everyone. Understand your risks. Be vigilant. 

How much job loss do you think is possible and which industries do you really see being impacted?

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, The Beast said:

How much job loss do you think is possible and which industries do you really see being impacted?

At this stage I fully believe we are going to see a 10 to 15 percent contraction. 

[The Beast]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

At this stage I fully believe we are going to see a 10 to 15 percent contraction. 

Will specific industries or job areas he hurt more than others? Can the stock market really get down to 2-3,000 by the end of the year?

[Soxbadger]

1 hour ago, The Beast said:

Will specific industries or job areas he hurt more than others? Can the stock market really get down to 2-3,000 by the end of the year?

Anything can happen. This is uncharted which is exactly what spooks investors because there is no model.

The market may also rocket back if there dont appear to be longterm impacts. Id guedd big companies will bounce back okay, certain industries may hurt longer (travel) and some may even benefit.

This isnt market advice but if you own a home may want to reach out and see about remodification. Had a client get 3.25% at a closing last week. Strike this, guess the volatility has them higher. But they probably will go back down when things settle down.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Soxbadger

[greg775]

On 3/14/2020 at 1:16 PM, raBBit said:

show up to work everyday (or work remotely) with the best attitude possible. Get in early. Stay late. Make good with your coworker you have issues with. Drop your complaints about however you feel you're being slighted or how the workplace is stacked against. Ask your boss is there anything you can do to help her/him before leaving for the day. The recency bias may go a long way when employers are tasked with tough decisions - and they will be. 

Hope all is well with everyone. Understand your risks. Be vigilant. 

 

You make good points, however ... maybe if you shut up and growl at the extra work for the same pay but produce so much for the company you'll still be kept on. And you'll prove a producer can have a bad attitude and still be valuable to the company.  In other words, I yam who I am and I ain't sucking up. Like you I 'hope all is well with everyone' and wish America the best in attacking the crisis. Be kind to one another and only buy what u need!

Edited March 17, 2020 by greg775

[southsider2k5]

39 minutes ago, The Beast said:

Will specific industries or job areas he hurt more than others? Can the stock market really get down to 2-3,000 by the end of the year?

Retail and travel have to top the list.

[caulfield12]

Goldman called for -41%.  Peak of 2008-09 was -57%.

In the end, endless you desperately need the cash now...it’s suicide to take it out.

Where do you put it?  Not in bonds...they could be even riskier, depending on winners and losers in the bailout.

Gold?  Real estate, perhaps.

Lots of high dividend stocks will cut back there, especially energy and even banks.

Back to the so-called Admiral stocks...the proven, diversified companies that would be trucking along without the virus but are getting stung along with the rest of the market by index funds.  Not all individual stocks are created equal.

Johnson & Johnson, for example.  Wal-Mart.  Don’t overthink it.  

[Soxbadger]

34 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Retail and travel have to top the list.

For retail anyone who doesnt have a good online/delivery presence is going to get hammered. 

[The Beast]

2 hours ago, Soxbadger said:

Anything can happen. This is uncharted which is exactly what spooks investors because there is no model.

The market may also rocket back if there dont appear to be longterm impacts. Id guedd big companies will bounce back okay, certain industries may hurt longer (travel) and some may even benefit.

This isnt market advice but if you own a home may want to reach out and see about remodification. Had a client get 3.25% at a closing last week. Strike this, guess the volatility has them higher. But they probably will go back down when things settle down.

We just refinanced and are saving $250 a month with minimal closing costs. I’m just hoping that the lean insurance company I work for doesn’t slash jobs, even though I’m an individual contributor and handle a good chunk of my team’s work and have some experience in data analysis so I am somewhat valuable.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Goldman called for -41%.  Peak of 2008-09 was -57%.

In the end, endless you desperately need the cash now...it’s suicide to take it out.

Where do you put it?  Not in bonds...they could be even riskier, depending on winners and losers in the bailout.

Gold?  Real estate, perhaps.

Lots of high dividend stocks will cut back there, especially energy and even banks.

Back to the so-called Admiral stocks...the proven, diversified companies that would be trucking along without the virus but are getting stung along with the rest of the market by index funds.  Not all individual stocks are created equal.

Johnson & Johnson, for example.  Wal-Mart.  Don’t overthink it.  

We are currently down 32% from the highs.  41% would be another 2750 points down.

[Chisoxfn]

2 hours ago, Soxbadger said:

Anything can happen. This is uncharted which is exactly what spooks investors because there is no model.

The market may also rocket back if there dont appear to be longterm impacts. Id guedd big companies will bounce back okay, certain industries may hurt longer (travel) and some may even benefit.

This isnt market advice but if you own a home may want to reach out and see about remodification. Had a client get 3.25% at a closing last week. Strike this, guess the volatility has them higher. But they probably will go back down when things settle down.

The market will absolutely rocket back.  I have been saying for 3 weeks that we should expect a roughly 40-50% correction driven by this...but we will also see a pretty quick rebound as there are no structural issues underlying the economy.  We will come out of this and get the engines roaring on all cylinders, but it will take good infrastructure/government stimulus packages to help get the engines fired up.  I expect markets will rebound by end of next year and in general this will be a much shorter recession.  All that said, it is going to get a bit scarier before it gets better and for some industries it will be really bad. Fed and Government are going to have to manage the bail-outs and stimulus packages efficiently and effectively.  Jobs will definitely be lost, most notably within the service and hospitality sectors, but the retail sector which has been hammered for years, will continue to struggle as well (obviously not grocery stores...but every other retail store). The stimulus packages will likely be targeted around infrastructure and things to get people back to work.  Manufacturing and production will also pop off as we try to launch back and quickly.    

[Chisoxfn]

50 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

We are currently down 32% from the highs.  41% would be another 2750 points down.

My gut is we will be close to that by end of this week / middle of next week.  We have at least a 2 week window where we will likely have more good vs. bad news and thus the continued overreaction (within the markets) to this virus will continue. The best thing that can happen is we stop moving/reacting to the day by day and get people to have the bigger/broader picture that this is going to be a 2-3 month journey. I personally think the market has already corrected for that and than some...but with so much uncertainty, we will see more and more heart.  For those who aren't faint of mind...there are a lot of opportunities within this market as well. 

[southsider2k5]

9 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

My gut is we will be close to that by end of this week / middle of next week.  We have at least a 2 week window where we will likely have more good vs. bad news and thus the continued overreaction (within the markets) to this virus will continue. The best thing that can happen is we stop moving/reacting to the day by day and get people to have the bigger/broader picture that this is going to be a 2-3 month journey. I personally think the market has already corrected for that and than some...but with so much uncertainty, we will see more and more heart.  For those who aren't faint of mind...there are a lot of opportunities within this market as well. 

Markets hate uncertainty, and that is all we have gotten.  A big part of that is leadership hasn't taken a clear and consistent road on how they were going to attack this.  One day it is the scene in Animal House where he is screaming "Relax, all is well!", and then the next he is talking about quarantine until August.  Even if they took the lane of worst case scenario, the pain would at least get factored into the markets and pass.  But we don't have leadership.

[caulfield12]

Boeing is the first priority to save.  
 

Airlines already asking for a $54-58 billion bailout.  They are going to have to let American Airlines fail.  Southwest has bought back a ton of stock as well, but they’re one of the best bets to thrive again.   That would basically leave Delta and United.

 

First, some context. Please understand that times are tough for us, too. Lots of us are getting hammered.

Also, two years ago, our government enacted a corporate tax cut that saved you and other US companies hundreds of billions of dollars. This tax cut benefited you and your shareholders, but it also ballooned our annual government deficit to more than $1 trillion a year.

With the coronavirus now plunging our economy into recession, our tax revenue will tank, and our deficit will skyrocket even more, perhaps to $2 trillion or $3 trillion per year. So we're not as flush as we should have been.

Second, over the past decade, you raked in tens of billions of dollars of profit and, instead of saving it, gave it to your shareholders.

As you know well — and as you point out in your financial filings — your business is cyclical. So cyclical, in fact, that many of you have already gone bankrupt in the past. So you could have saved this cash for a rainy day. But you didn't.

Instead, according to Bloomberg, you used a startling 96% of your cash flow to buy back your own stock. The buybacks of one of your members alone, American Airlines, totaled more than $15 billion in the past six years. ($15 billion! American, if you had just kept that cash, you might not need a bailout!)

Third, although the coronavirus pandemic is bad luck, it was not unforeseeable. In fact, at least one of your members, American Airlines, explicitly foresaw it. In recent financial filings, American cited "outbreaks of diseases that affect travel behavior" as a major risk to its business.

https://news.yahoo.com/okay-airlines-bailout-terms-131607340.html

You guys can pick the winners and losers from the rest...I can only say Spirit and Frontier suck.

Southwest Airlines – 20% (132,251,331 passengers)

Delta Air Lines – 16% (106,062,211 passengers)

American Airlines – 15% (99,857,863 passengers)

United Airlines – 11% (71,722,425 passengers)

SkyWest Airlines – 5% (31,257,149 passengers)

JetBlue Airways – 4% (28,406,310 passengers)

Alaska Airlines – 4% (26,273,073 passengers)

Spirit Airlines – 3% (21,863,935 passengers)

Frontier Airlines – 2% (15,527,410 passengers)

Republic Airline (operates as American Eagle, Delta Connection, and United Express) – 2% (14,728,265 passengers)

 

Edited March 17, 2020 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Boeing is the first priority to save.  
 

Airlines already asking for a $54-58 billion bailout.  They are going to have to let American Airlines fail.  Southwest has bought back a ton of stock as well, but they’re one of the best bets to thrive again.   That would basically leave Delta and United.

 

First, some context. Please understand that times are tough for us, too. Lots of us are getting hammered.

Also, two years ago, our government enacted a corporate tax cut that saved you and other US companies hundreds of billions of dollars. This tax cut benefited you and your shareholders, but it also ballooned our annual government deficit to more than $1 trillion a year.

With the coronavirus now plunging our economy into recession, our tax revenue will tank, and our deficit will skyrocket even more, perhaps to $2 trillion or $3 trillion per year. So we're not as flush as we should have been.

Second, over the past decade, you raked in tens of billions of dollars of profit and, instead of saving it, gave it to your shareholders.

As you know well — and as you point out in your financial filings — your business is cyclical. So cyclical, in fact, that many of you have already gone bankrupt in the past. So you could have saved this cash for a rainy day. But you didn't.

Instead, according to Bloomberg, you used a startling 96% of your cash flow to buy back your own stock. The buybacks of one of your members alone, American Airlines, totaled more than $15 billion in the past six years. ($15 billion! American, if you had just kept that cash, you might not need a bailout!)

Third, although the coronavirus pandemic is bad luck, it was not unforeseeable. In fact, at least one of your members, American Airlines, explicitly foresaw it. In recent financial filings, American cited "outbreaks of diseases that affect travel behavior" as a major risk to its business.

https://news.yahoo.com/okay-airlines-bailout-terms-131607340.html

You guys can pick the winners and losers from the rest...I can only say Spirit and Frontier suck.

Southwest Airlines – 20% (132,251,331 passengers)

Delta Air Lines – 16% (106,062,211 passengers)

American Airlines – 15% (99,857,863 passengers)

United Airlines – 11% (71,722,425 passengers)

SkyWest Airlines – 5% (31,257,149 passengers)

JetBlue Airways – 4% (28,406,310 passengers)

Alaska Airlines – 4% (26,273,073 passengers)

Spirit Airlines – 3% (21,863,935 passengers)

Frontier Airlines – 2% (15,527,410 passengers)

Republic Airline (operates as American Eagle, Delta Connection, and United Express) – 2% (14,728,265 passengers)

 

If they are going to bail out airlines, maybe they can make their bailout contingent on getting rid of all the ridiculous fees they charge once they get past this. 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

If they are going to bail out airlines, maybe they can make their bailout contingent on getting rid of all the ridiculous fees they charge once they get past this. 

Yep, leg room, too.  That’s the biggest to me...especially international flights.