Market/Financial Thread

[southsider2k5]

59 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

If they are going to bail out airlines, maybe they can make their bailout contingent on getting rid of all the ridiculous fees they charge once they get past this. 

I would settle for restricting stock buybacks for a period of time.

[Balta1701]

29 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I would settle for restricting stock buybacks for a period of time.

What's the point of a bailout then?

[he gone.]

On 10/24/2018 at 3:32 PM, BrianAnderson said:

This is just the tip of the iceberg. Trump can spin the tariffs as rah rah all he wants, but I see the results directly across the board when reviewing financials. It can only be passed along to consumers so much - it's killing margins. Economists disagree and say it's not that tariffs won't and don't effect the US economy that much, but I disagree.

I was in an Uber the other day and my driver said he thought we're nearing the end of the bull run... if that's not a sign I'm not sure what is. Since we're on SoxTalk -- to compare it to baseball ---- I'd say the Economy/bull run just wrapped up the 7th inning stretch. We may have between 6-24 months of run left in this thing depending on many factors, but personally think when the clock strikes 2020 that somewhere in that year is where the bottom really falls out.

Hey look at me - what a smart guy. 17 months ago did pretty well calling it. 

[he gone.]

34 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I would settle for restricting stock buybacks for a period of time.

For a period of time? Ha. 

My god, this whole financial system is a mess and the little guy, the average citizen has no effing clue. None at all. Airlines are an easy example to explain .....

They cut planes, run at optimization -- fine, good, that's how business is done. They cram you in, give you shit service, charge you to bring a bag, to move your seat up, to board early, to sneeze. Oil drops, they keep prices the same. THe consumer pays and pays and pays and they make bank. They free cash flow out the ears. Then they take that money and buy back stock. They don't save it for a rainy day, they buy back stock because the C-Suite people have stock incentives in their plans. They don't have customer happiness plans.. they don't have employee hapiness plans. They don't give their employees more money. They don't up their 401-k match ... nope they buy stock. Hell, Boeing issued debt to buy back stock. All to prop up prices and so they could get fat bonuses and buy their 5th house and another fancy car. Then shit hits the fan -- and look, no rainy day fund. But what will we do without airline companiesss??@!!?. Fuck them. fuck all of these companies. let them learn their lesson. let Bezos buy an airline for all i care. Companies need to learn their lesson. But nope, we'll bail them out... the taxpayers do it again. They'll spin this as too big to fail and that they'll pay back with interest. It's all horseshit. The Fed is a joke that just prints money devaluing hard earned savings. These companies are like cracked out addicts. The Fed is the enabling parent. Instead of saying no, enough is enough, no bailout, no money. We give it to them. And they go out and use/buy. It took 12 year for a repeat. There's no consequences to leveraging up a balance sheet to the gills. Worst case scenario they bankrupt the compayn, chapter 11 and repeat again. or get a bailout. We've learned nothing from 2008, just heads in the sand as citizens. 

This county is full of sheeple. Just follow whatever clown in congress or in power and act like they're smarter and know what they're doing. They dont. and wont. Ever. All events like this do is create bigger wealth divides. we're doing what we did in 2008 on a larger scale. how sick is it that we are 4 weeks from an all time high stock market (fake numbers -- terrible P/E ratios) but nonetheless 4 weeks from the top to the largest bailout in history? It's a sham, always has been. 

 

 

[bmags]

27 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

For a period of time? Ha. 

My god, this whole financial system is a mess and the little guy, the average citizen has no effing clue. None at all. Airlines are an easy example to explain .....

They cut planes, run at optimization -- fine, good, that's how business is done. They cram you in, give you shit service, charge you to bring a bag, to move your seat up, to board early, to sneeze. Oil drops, they keep prices the same. THe consumer pays and pays and pays and they make bank. They free cash flow out the ears. Then they take that money and buy back stock. They don't save it for a rainy day, they buy back stock because the C-Suite people have stock incentives in their plans. They don't have customer happiness plans.. they don't have employee hapiness plans. They don't give their employees more money. They don't up their 401-k match ... nope they buy stock. Hell, Boeing issued debt to buy back stock. All to prop up prices and so they could get fat bonuses and buy their 5th house and another fancy car. Then shit hits the fan -- and look, no rainy day fund. But what will we do without airline companiesss??@!!?. Fuck them. fuck all of these companies. let them learn their lesson. let Bezos buy an airline for all i care. Companies need to learn their lesson. But nope, we'll bail them out... the taxpayers do it again. They'll spin this as too big to fail and that they'll pay back with interest. It's all horseshit. The Fed is a joke that just prints money devaluing hard earned savings. These companies are like cracked out addicts. The Fed is the enabling parent. Instead of saying no, enough is enough, no bailout, no money. We give it to them. And they go out and use/buy. It took 12 year for a repeat. There's no consequences to leveraging up a balance sheet to the gills. Worst case scenario they bankrupt the compayn, chapter 11 and repeat again. or get a bailout. We've learned nothing from 2008, just heads in the sand as citizens. 

This county is full of sheeple. Just follow whatever clown in congress or in power and act like they're smarter and know what they're doing. They dont. and wont. Ever. All events like this do is create bigger wealth divides. we're doing what we did in 2008 on a larger scale. how sick is it that we are 4 weeks from an all time high stock market (fake numbers -- terrible P/E ratios) but nonetheless 4 weeks from the top to the largest bailout in history? It's a sham, always has been. 

 

 

Airfare is cheaper than ever. Oil rises and tickets absolutely rise. We think companies like spirit are garbage...except they do extraordinarily well. 

The cost of flights from chicago to nyc since the 80s has barely budged despite inflation. 

Inflation has been unusually low by historical standards, not sure how the fed is biting into peoples hard savings. While savings accounts are basically useless...they can buy houses for much lower interest and use that for a savings vehicle.

And this whole thing...it's a pandemic. The economy had shown itself to be remarkably resilient. China's growth stumbled, it chugged along. The eurozone went into insane austerity mode, it chugged along. The oil shocks of 14-16 hit the one heated part of the US economy...it chugged along. The tech bubble basically burst, it chugged along. Then, yeah, a virus comes in and the world shuts down, so the permabears can say "see! We told you!"

[he gone.]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

Airfare is cheaper than ever. Oil rises and tickets absolutely rise. We think companies like spirit are garbage...except they do extraordinarily well. 

The cost of flights from chicago to nyc since the 80s has barely budged despite inflation. 

Inflation has been unusually low by historical standards, not sure how the fed is biting into peoples hard savings. While savings accounts are basically useless...they can buy houses for much lower interest and use that for a savings vehicle.

And this whole thing...it's a pandemic. The economy had shown itself to be remarkably resilient. China's growth stumbled, it chugged along. The eurozone went into insane austerity mode, it chugged along. The oil shocks of 14-16 hit the one heated part of the US economy...it chugged along. The tech bubble basically burst, it chugged along. Then, yeah, a virus comes in and the world shuts down, so the permabears can say "see! We told you!"

Yikes. Houses as a savings vehicle? Where? This isn't 2000 anymore. That ship has sailed. Go look up Dennis Rodkin for Crain's. He focuses on real estate in IL. Houses are selling in 2020 for what they did in 2004. They just ran an atricle about house prices and time on the market there were like 12 neighborhoods in the whole entire state that improved in 2019 -- news flash they were all small towns with median home prices at like $140k a house... 

I can tell just from your post .... let's peg you at 50-60 years old? You graduated from a Big Ten school, have a had a nice mid-tier job making 6 figures for a while. You saved into a 401k and have watched the stock market take off during your career -- really hitting it's stride post 2008 when you started having more disposable income. Now your 401k exploded for 12 years and the system has worked well for you. Social security will still be there when you retire. 

Am I close?

I've got a thousand bridges to sell you - because this system is a damn mess. We're not even on fractional reserve banking anymore. We're on the trust us, its all okay banking system. I can talk finance and economics with you until the cows come home. If you don't have a problem with companies like Boeing funding stock buy backs with debt and then drawing down on a $13B revolver then you're part of the problem. Boeing knows because of their role in defense budgets that they are free and clear from ever going bankrupt. They are exempt. They can be the biggest crooks in the world and the government pays for it. 

 

Let me ask you something. What's your definition of money? What is the dollar - and what is its worth? How is that worth determined? In this homework assignment, I'd like you to research the history of the dollar. 

[Heads22]

bmags retired last year, actually

[he gone.]

6 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

bmags retired last year, actually

Off by a few years. Fits exactly with the mindset I"d expect though. Everything went well for him. Every other generation has left it better for the next except now. 

But that's the mindset of many 60-75 year olds. Who cares that Social security wont be around for the next generation. Too bad that pensions are underfunded with no way out except for tax hikes, property tax hikes, etc. Enjoyed the benefits personally, so who cares about the next generation. 

[southsider2k5]

18 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Yikes. Houses as a savings vehicle? Where? This isn't 2000 anymore. That ship has sailed. Go look up Dennis Rodkin for Crain's. He focuses on real estate in IL. Houses are selling in 2020 for what they did in 2004. They just ran an atricle about house prices and time on the market there were like 12 neighborhoods in the whole entire state that improved in 2019 -- news flash they were all small towns with median home prices at like $140k a house... 

I can tell just from your post .... let's peg you at 50-60 years old? You graduated from a Big Ten school, have a had a nice mid-tier job making 6 figures for a while. You saved into a 401k and have watched the stock market take off during your career -- really hitting it's stride post 2008 when you started having more disposable income. Now your 401k exploded for 12 years and the system has worked well for you. Social security will still be there when you retire. 

Am I close?

I've got a thousand bridges to sell you - because this system is a damn mess. We're not even on fractional reserve banking anymore. We're on the trust us, its all okay banking system. I can talk finance and economics with you until the cows come home. If you don't have a problem with companies like Boeing funding stock buy backs with debt and then drawing down on a $13B revolver then you're part of the problem. Boeing knows because of their role in defense budgets that they are free and clear from ever going bankrupt. They are exempt. They can be the biggest crooks in the world and the government pays for it. 

 

Let me ask you something. What's your definition of money? What is the dollar - and what is its worth? How is that worth determined? In this homework assignment, I'd like you to research the history of the dollar. 

Next up, the Bilderbergs

 

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

bmags retired last year, actually

[he gone.]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Next up, the Bilderbergs

 

i'm not a conspiracy theorist. There's too much transparency to be one. It's really not even that deep. Rich people love money. They love it more than anything other than themselves. It's a sad hollow life to be obsessed with money. People wtih money should be giving $100 tips to waitresses instead of buying a 4th car. 

The rich run the world and always have. They use that money to make their voice heard. money = power.  I sincerely don't even think they are fully ill intended with their actions - but money talks. And humans are humans. Flawed apes that are still evolving  just trying to figure out what the hell we're doing here and not killing each other. We make mistakes. Unfortunately the FED is ass backwards in how to handle shit. They are supposed to be a group of people serving the people and helping to smooth over tough times and keep things stable. Control the ebbs and flows. Problem is they are creating issues more than solving them. And this bailout will just lead to another bailout - except i think the next one doesnt take 12 years... it take 5-7 years. And it will be bigger than the last. 

 

And don't forgot about the ripple effect here. Pensions that were already underfunded? good luck. and who does that hit? That hits the next tax vote to the individuals. Casinos? average man tax. Lottery? Stupid person tax. Gas tax goes up. But according to bmags, " how is the fed eating into peoples hard earned money" --- it's not 1 for 1. each action has a consequence. the consequence is the more the fed pulls these stunts the more the income inequality grows, the more the average person has less in their paycheck. But i guess if you're 65 and benefited literally your entire life and are going to cehck out before SS runs out -- then enjoy a cocktail at your winter home in FL or AZ. 

 

That's really my probelm - we should all be stewards for the people that come next. To love and live and to create a better world. But there are so many greedy people in the world who care about getting their own. 

[bmags]

31 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Yikes. Houses as a savings vehicle? Where? This isn't 2000 anymore. That ship has sailed. Go look up Dennis Rodkin for Crain's. He focuses on real estate in IL. Houses are selling in 2020 for what they did in 2004. They just ran an atricle about house prices and time on the market there were like 12 neighborhoods in the whole entire state that improved in 2019 -- news flash they were all small towns with median home prices at like $140k a house... 

I can tell just from your post .... let's peg you at 50-60 years old? You graduated from a Big Ten school, have a had a nice mid-tier job making 6 figures for a while. You saved into a 401k and have watched the stock market take off during your career -- really hitting it's stride post 2008 when you started having more disposable income. Now your 401k exploded for 12 years and the system has worked well for you. Social security will still be there when you retire. 

Am I close?

I've got a thousand bridges to sell you - because this system is a damn mess. We're not even on fractional reserve banking anymore. We're on the trust us, its all okay banking system. I can talk finance and economics with you until the cows come home. If you don't have a problem with companies like Boeing funding stock buy backs with debt and then drawing down on a $13B revolver then you're part of the problem. Boeing knows because of their role in defense budgets that they are free and clear from ever going bankrupt. They are exempt. They can be the biggest crooks in the world and the government pays for it. 

 

Let me ask you something. What's your definition of money? What is the dollar - and what is its worth? How is that worth determined? In this homework assignment, I'd like you to research the history of the dollar. 

graduated in 2009. 

18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Next up, the Bilderbergs

 

lol

[he gone.]

You graduated in 2009 and have this outlook??????

Why? How? I'm literally floored.

 

What gives you confidence? Was it the job freeze when you graduated? The fact that real estate doesn't appreciate in value? That you literally earn no money on your bank savings? The fact that social security is not going to be available? That government debt has exploded? 

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

1 hour ago, BrianAnderson said:

You graduated in 2009 and have this outlook??????

Why? How? I'm literally floored.

 

What gives you confidence? Was it the job freeze when you graduated? The fact that real estate doesn't appreciate in value? That you literally earn no money on your bank savings? The fact that social security is not going to be available? That government debt has exploded? 

 

 

There was no "job freeze" in 2009. It was a recession... Real estate has appreciated quite dramatically since 2009, and not coincidentally, home values are now at a point where they WOULD have been had the curve stayed historically typical from about 2002 to present... Bank savings is now and has always been a pretty terrible investment vehicle - nothing has changed much before or after 2009... Social Security is in no material danger in the next few decades, and any looming crunch can be handled pretty easily.

But hey you're right about government debt exploding. No argument there.

I think you confuse trust with perspective.

[Y2HH]

4 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Hey look at me - what a smart guy. 17 months ago did pretty well calling it.

Uh, yeah...a virus you didn't know would exist caused this on a global stage. You sure called it.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Y2HH

[caulfield12]

Treasury Secretary warns US could see 20% unemployment rate due to coronavirus, source says

From CNN's Jeremy Diamond

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned Republican senators Tuesday that the coronavirus pandemic could drive up US unemployment to 20%, a Republican Senate source told CNN.

Mnuchin's comments came as he urged Republican senators to act on economic stimulus measures totaling $1 trillion designed to avert that kind of worst case scenario.

In the same meeting, Mnuchin also said he is concerned the economic ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic could be worse than the 2008 financial crisis, the source said.

 

 

Depending on the fallout from all this, who gets saved or made whole and who ends up “back in their mom’s basement“ like a decade ago...there’s going to be a further shift in the country coming mostly from the group who got left behind during the Financial Crisis and political left/Millennials/Hispanics (it’s not clear yet which direction union members and non college educated whites will go) for wholesale societal changes.

No matter what happens in November, it’s pretty clear the country is splitting into three main groups (with the Democratic party further dividing into two opposing camps)...based on those issues like economic inequality, climate change, breaking up massive corporate oligopolies, universal health care, UBI/worker displacement, college costs, etc.

The establishment/moderates/centrists rightfully value stability....and they do comprise 40-50% of the people in the US today, but go left or right along depending on economic or social/moral issues and beliefs.   Then there are those further on the left and right who just want to blow up the entire system for completely different reasons (immigration arguments, for example.)

In times of crisis, the middle always wins.

That said, it’s going to be fascinating to watch play out.  Assuming that we get through this...with deficits nearing $30 trillion, we’re likely again in the near future to hear terms like austerity and balanced budgets with tax raises and/or accompanying Social Security Medicare/Medicaid cuts.

From a historical perspective, 2024 is looking like it will be the reverse of Taft/Wilson/Roosevelt...with the left splitting off instead of the GOP...except it feels like the period of time from Wilson to FDR is going to be cut from 20 down to 8-12 years.

2032-2036 is when the government and country is FINALLY going to have to reckon with the financial policies and resulting income equality of the prior fifty years.

Of course, I might be totally wrong and all these wholesale societal changes are going to happen much more quickly, with the pandemic being the critical inflection point, haha.

 

 

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I bought my first house last April with a 5.25% rate. Should I be refinancing right now? What are the downsides? Upfront costs? We only planning on staying in this house for another 3-4 years before we likely build a home.

Do they freeze our credit again and run credit checks like they did when we first bought the house? We are getting married in September and my fiance just got laid off her job 3 weeks ago. It's hard to google this stuff without knowing if it's a website/person just trying to get my business.

[he gone.]

2 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I bought my first house last April with a 5.25% rate. Should I be refinancing right now? What are the downsides? Upfront costs? We only planning on staying in this house for another 3-4 years before we likely build a home.

Do they freeze our credit again and run credit checks like they did when we first bought the house? We are getting married in September and my fiance just got laid off her job 3 weeks ago. It's hard to google this stuff without knowing if it's a website/person just trying to get my business.

I believe you pay a fee - like $1,000? to refinance - but you're probably not going to get a better rate - or not much better than now. 

I personally am waiting it out until interest rates go negative with the Fed. And its likely that this is going to get worse before better-  so may even get a better deal 12-24 months from now. 

 

[southsider2k5]

24 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I bought my first house last April with a 5.25% rate. Should I be refinancing right now? What are the downsides? Upfront costs? We only planning on staying in this house for another 3-4 years before we likely build a home.

Do they freeze our credit again and run credit checks like they did when we first bought the house? We are getting married in September and my fiance just got laid off her job 3 weeks ago. It's hard to google this stuff without knowing if it's a website/person just trying to get my business.

Prime rate is around 3% now, so if you qualify that is a pretty decent savings.  What you have to ask yourself is the extra closing costs you would add in cover what you would save in interest over those 3 or 4 years.  Also, I would be 100% sure that your job will exist when all of this is done down the road.

[Soxbadger]

29 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I bought my first house last April with a 5.25% rate. Should I be refinancing right now? What are the downsides? Upfront costs? We only planning on staying in this house for another 3-4 years before we likely build a home.

Do they freeze our credit again and run credit checks like they did when we first bought the house? We are getting married in September and my fiance just got laid off her job 3 weeks ago. It's hard to google this stuff without knowing if it's a website/person just trying to get my business.

It doesnt hurt to ask, but I spoke to my lender the other days and rates are up 1% from the week prior. He believes that in a few months they will stabilize. I was hoping to get around a 3.25%.

[southsider2k5]

Also, the Dow is actually negative for the Trump adminstration.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Also, the Dow is actually negative for the Trump adminstration.

Does that start election day...I think it was November 3rd, 2016....or Inauguration on January 20th, 2017?

[bmags]

If you are sure you are planning on moving in 3-4 years, I would say don't do it. The cash would be more valuable to you during this volatile time. But you may as well quote out the closing costs, but for 3-4 years it may be close to a wash or slight benefit to refinancing.

[Soxbadger]

The best advice I can give you is always ask. My purchase and my remod were 0 cost closings. Some lenders offer strange perks. 

[he gone.]

"there is a longer term risk to consider, over and above the tactical. Central banks are central banks for a reason, they are supposed to sit (hide) behind commercial banks, so that the commercial banks take all the risk - not them. But the opening and widening of FX swap lines means that the central banks are now taking on foreign currency credit exposure - that is, the credit risk of the other central banks due to currency mis-matches. And the prospect of direct financing of corporates means that central banks are starting to take on genuine corporate credit risk. All in all, central banks balance sheets are becoming riskier to accommodate the de-risking of the private sector. But what happens when everything blows up again? Do central banks literally go bust?

 

Either they do and we worry about the integrity of fiat currency systems, or they dont because they print money to cover losses (effectively in collaboration with sovereigns, as they remit losses back to them, contributing to fiscal deficits, which in turn need more central bank financing) Either way we worry about the integrity of fiat currency, or inflation. Therefore attention starts to turn to alternative currency regimes, whether gold, or digital, or all of the above. "

 

Those aren't my words - those would be my words if I was better at compiling thoughts - but those are the thoughts of Credit Suisse. 

 

But, it sounds like people in this discussion have blind faith in the Fed. And to you, i wish you luck. As i've said for years, do your research. Research fiat currencies. We aren't even on fractional reserve banking anymore. Rules are being bent. fiat currencies are essentially an experiment for the last 50 years. It's a blip on the radar in the history of mankind. fiat currencies have always failed and will continue to fail - and this one is being tested currently. Believe whatever helps you sleep at night - but I have and will continue to invest into bitcoin and gold as hedges.. call me crazy or whatever you want. everybdoy in this world buys insurance, where is your fiat insurance?