Market/Financial Thread

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

Maybe he is doing it on purpose because he knows it's going down and he can claim a greater improvement once it goes up.

Except that one Friday....two times, the interest rate cuts backfired pretty dramatically.

[Balta1701]

 

 

[bmags]

 

getting there

[Dick Allen]

Dow futures limit down. How’s your 401k?

[southsider2k5]

Now things get interesting.  Rand Paul has Covid. He sat next to Mitt Romney who is now self isolating and won't vote in the Senate until at least until he gets his test back. We are now down 2 GOP Senators, and still don't have a bailout done. I wonder how much attrition will have to do with the bill that gets done.

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Now things get interesting.  Rand Paul has Covid. He sat next to Mitt Romney who is now self isolating and won't vote in the Senate until at least until he gets his test back. We are now down 2 GOP Senators, and still don't have a bailout done. I wonder how much attrition will have to do with the bill that gets done.

A couple more and it creates a Democratic Majority in the senate for a week.

[caulfield12]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/22/coronavirus-stimulus-congress-141360
47-47?

The one shocker is that Mitch McConnell isn’t for Senate voting from home/online.

Of course, he turns around and schedules a vote tmrw right around the opening of the markets...theoretically headed for their worst week in history if they can’t strike a deal.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/coronavirus-myth-economy-uk-business-life-death?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0Jlc3RPZkd1YXJkaWFuT3BpbmlvblVLLTIwMDMyMA%3D%3D&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=opinionuk_email&utm_campaign=BestOfGuardianOpinionUK

The coronavirus shutdown of 2020 is perhaps the most remarkable interruption to ordinary life in modern history. It has been spoken about as a war. And one is reminded of the stories told of the interruption of normality in 1914 and 1939. But unlike a war, the present moment involves demobilisation not mobilisation. While the hospitals are on full alert, the majority of us are confined to quarters. We are deliberately inducing one of the most severe recessions ever seen. In so doing we are driving another nail into the coffin of one of the great platitudes of the late 20th century: it’s the economy stupid.

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/22/feds-bullard-coronavirus-shutdown-not-a-recession-an-investment-in-survival.html
Cramer was right on Zoom and Teledoc...at least for now

 

The US economy is expected to contract and unemployment is expected to jump in the second quarter of the year.

"This is a planned temporary shutdown of the US economy. This is going to be, throttle back the US economy from what it usually is," said James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, on CNN's "First Move."

The US will be missing around $2.5 trillion worth of second-quarter income because of that "throttling back" -- roughly half normal output.

“So that is what Congress is trying to bridge. That is the revenue that isn't there for businesses. That's the income that isn't there for households,” Bullard told CNN’s Julia Chatterley.

Unemployment insurance programs will help keep Americans whole during this period, Bullard added. He earlier told Bloomberg that the unemployment rate could jump to as high as 30%.

The point of the various stimulus programs -- which would better be called "insurance programs," said Bullard -- is to have the economy completely intact when we emerge from the coronavirus crisis.

cnn.com

[caulfield12]

22 min ago

Dow tumbles 700 points after Senate procedural vote fails a second time

From CNN Business' David Goldman

US stocks sank sharply again this afternoon after Senate Democrats blocked a coronavirus economic stimulus bill from advancing. It was the second time in two days Democrats blocked the measure as talks over the giant bill continue.

The Dow, which had been moderately lower earlier in the day, fell 700 points, or 3.7%. The S&P 500 fell 3.6% and the Nasdaq was down 1.5%.

[Texsox]

The senate debate is simple -- donors or voters? Give money to corporations and trust it will help people or give the money to the people and trust it will help businesses. 

[Texsox]

Can anyone put this in plain English?

Quote

The vote was a procedural attempt to limit debate on a shell bill that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is using as a placeholder until negotiators reach a consensus deal. If it had succeeded, it would have cleared the way for the Senate to set up a final vote on a stimulus deal.

They aren't actually voting on THE bill, but on a shell bill . . . 

[caulfield12]

The final bill will be almost unanimous...except for contrarians like Paul and Lee if they vote.

 

Dow now down 37%, right around Election Day, 2016, numbers.   57% fall in 2008-09. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Can anyone put this in plain English?

They aren't actually voting on THE bill, but on a shell bill . . . 

Right now they have no bill to vote on. Republicans have put a bill with no checks and balances out there for 500 billion of the allocations; basically giving major companies no restrictions or guidance on how they distribute their "bailout money." 

Socialism is only a bad word when it's personal and not corporate in America. Major corporations are as pro-capitalism as it gets within their lobby's, but the second shit hits the fan they have their hands out quicker than anyone else. The most socialistic aspect of the American economy is it's major corporations.  

By far the biggest piece of news to come out of this is the Fed basically saying it will print however much money is necessary to stave off a depression. For all wondering if we could afford safety nets and etc, and the many who have argued against them, this is proof that the argument of "you can't just print money" was pure nonsense. 

The Fed is proving time and time again that the value of the dollar is not tied to any sort of demand network, nor is it tied to anything but for perceived value, and that their insistence on not attacking the homeless and poverty problem in this country with "money can't be printed" excuse was pure nonsense. 

The Fed Govt will once again give billions to big corporations to distribute among the top while they screw the average workers all the way to the bank.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

The final bill will be almost unanimous...except for contrarians like Paul and Lee if they vote.

 

Dow now down 37%, right around Election Day, 2016, numbers.   57% fall in 2008-09. 

No chance.

[caulfield12]

27 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No chance.

Who wants to be on record against saving American lives when they run for re-election?

Biggest stimulus package in Congressional history...the no’s will be less than 10.  Bernie Sanders or Warren could be two no’s as well...but Warren is tacking back to center for VP consideration.

[Texsox]

Kind of forgotten in the negotiations, and one I would like to see. For the cruise ship industry, no help for foreign flagged vessels. Disney cruises and the rest who fly "flags of convenience" should petition those countries for economic help. 

[southsider2k5]

23 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Kind of forgotten in the negotiations, and one I would like to see. For the cruise ship industry, no help for foreign flagged vessels. Disney cruises and the rest who fly "flags of convenience" should petition those countries for economic help. 

Cruise ships aren't the only one who does this.  In fact the last set of tax changes was largely put in place to try to get companies who parked earnings off shore (Apple was a huge one) off shore in tax havens.  Remember tax breaks for companies repatriating and spending earnings here? 

[Texsox]

Which brings up something I hadn't thought of. I assume that US citizens living abroad who file US tax returns would receive a stimulus check as well?

[StrangeSox]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Cruise ships aren't the only one who does this.  In fact the last set of tax changes was largely put in place to try to get companies who parked earnings off shore (Apple was a huge one) off shore in tax havens.  Remember tax breaks for companies repatriating and spending earnings here? 

Cruise lines get around a whole bunch of labor laws that way too, I think. Apple may park their profits offshore, but they still ostensibly have to comply with federal, state and local labor laws for domestic employees.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Which brings up something I hadn't thought of. I assume that US citizens living abroad who file US tax returns would receive a stimulus check as well?

This is something I haven't heard addressed, but my initial thought would be that the biggest demographic there would be the military, so yes.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is something I haven't heard addressed, but my initial thought would be that the biggest demographic there would be the military, so yes.

But they are issued 1099’s through a US address or PO Box, yes?

[bmags]

This is why I think the "targeted bailouts" is too much of a landmine. If they just guarantee payroll of US legal workers up to 4k a month or whatever you are politically just helping workers, and don't have to worry about political targeting for supporting a hot button industry.

[Chisoxfn]

23 minutes ago, bmags said:

This is why I think the "targeted bailouts" is too much of a landmine. If they just guarantee payroll of US legal workers up to 4k a month or whatever you are politically just helping workers, and don't have to worry about political targeting for supporting a hot button industry.

Yes - This would be much simpler and makes far more sense. 

[caulfield12]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-recession-to-hit-over-24-million-workers-hardest-study-151816474.html
 

Fifteen biggest markets/areas to be hit by coronavirus job losses or displacement.   Entertainment/tourism and energy hugh on the list.

[Texsox]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is something I haven't heard addressed, but my initial thought would be that the biggest demographic there would be the military, so yes.

There are also a large number of retirees and "work from an internet connection" employees who have created America enclaves in low cost countries like Mexico.