wrathofhahn Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 On 10/19/2018 at 10:34 AM, southsider2k5 said: Again, in 2019 coming off of a 100 loss season, it isn't about who may be good or not, it is about finding out who IS good. If guys fail, you move on to the next guy. The Sox still aren't trying to win next year. Like I said earlier we still have 3-4 spots open even if we sign three guys and since they are signed to shortterm deals we can always move them should they be playing well to open up a spot. Who knows maybe you get a couple interesting guys via trade. On 10/19/2018 at 11:22 AM, Y2Jimmy0 said: Why do you think this though? The Sox didn't acquire all these young bullpen arms and put them on the 40 man so that they could pitch in Charlotte. Which of these guys won't be in the major league bullpen to start next year? Ian Hamilton, Jace Fry, Ryan Burr, Caleb Frare, Aaron Bummer, Juan Minaya, Jose Ruiz? That's 7 guys. It doesn't even include Jones, Vieira, Fulmer, Covey, etc. They may add some veteran relievers on minor league deals. I don't see them filling the bullpen with veteran FA signings though. They didn't acquire Burr, Frare, Ruiz and Vieira so that they could just discard them for veterans immediately. A bunch of those guys have options. Do you know who on that list is out of options? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrathofhahn Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 8 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said: Well last year one of the guys I was pushing hard for was Buchholz, and he ended up signing with the Dbacks and having a really strong year. Only 1 start did he allow more than 3 runs, and only 1 start did he ever walk more than 2 batters. This year I'll go ahead and throw my hat in for (Well Buchholz is a FA again. So do that a flipable piece in July) Trevor Cahill. Just going off of fWAR/IP, he had the best year of his career in 2018, and quietly in Oakland. He put up a 2.0 fWAR over 110 IP. But looking at his pitchFX, what I like is that his slider got MUCH harder and the usage went way up. He added 3 MPH to his slider over any other season. And we went from a previous career high usage of 8.8% of the time, to 18.9%. He's also throwing his change-up at a career high. He will be 31 when the season starts. So what type of offer do you throw him? Not really sure how much anyone trusts him to pitch 180+ IP. He hasn't done that since 2012. 2 yrs/$16M, with a team option for a 3rd year at $12M with a $2M buyout? That will promise him $18M over 2 years, with a potential for $30M. He likely becomes just a flip candidate, unless this team is ready to be good in 2020 and his 2021 option year. And as a crazy under-the-radar deal..... go out and grab Garrett Richards. He had TJS back in July, so he's out until 2020. But see if you can get him on some incentive laden deal. No idea what that would be, but it was done last year with Drew Smyly on a 2 yr/$10M deal. Obviously Richards is much better than Smyly.....so... 3 yrs/$30M? Basically the deal comes down to 2 yrs/$30M when he's fully recovered. Try to work in some option for a 4th year at $18M that vests if he pitches 350 IP over the 3 year deal, otherwise it reverts to a club option for $9M. Something creative like that. So Cahill and Richards. I could see Marwin Gonzalez being a target from the hitting standpoint. But those guys aren't as valuable as flip candidates, so it's hard to dream on value moves with hitters. I totally forgot Richards got injured. Of course he needs to be added to the list as well. Thats an idea and his agent isn't Boras so I could see him going for 3/30. Most agents look out for their clients and try to get them a little security Boras is only interested in the big deals so he lets his clients on bet on themselves and if they struggle coming back from TJS surgery well it aint him that's screwed he's still got 5 big names already lined up for free agency. That option seems sort of unreasonable for the player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Pomeranz is definitely a guy I’d roll the dice on to fill a spot in the back-end of the rotation. I bet you can get him on a pretty favorable deal given how awful his 2018 season was and a decently sized group of starting alternatives available on the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 (edited) If the Sox truly are going to start being special in 2020, why not sign a few of these guys now that can help the team then? I'm sure the worry is all of them are old. But if we have the money and are not going to win the Machado/Harper sweepstakes (there's no real buzz out there the Sox are true contenders for them), why not get more realistic and sign one or two of these guys out of this group: Robertson and Ottavino/Miller for the pen; Grandal for catcher, Brantley for OF and Keuchel for starter and Moustakas for third? How bout Brantley and Grandal and Moustakas and work on the pitchers later? I think it's a big challenge for the White Sox in the future to sign FAs. I've been reading some astronomical salary figures. Go in the vicinity of four year deals. Edited October 21, 2018 by greg775 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thad Bosley Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 (edited) 21 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said: On paper, maybe...in reality, given their track record and the state of the franchise at this moment (promise non withstanding) I'd say the odds are small and long. Lip, do you think there’s a chance the current owner pulls an Albert Belle out of his keister this offseason, and signs Machado? The team has certainly signaled their strong interest in him, and are more than capable of being the highest bidder for his services. If you remember with the Belle signing, it actually happened fairly quickly, and that’s because the owner just swooped in, identified the price point he knew no other team would go above, made the offer, and just got it done. In fact, that’s essentially how he publicly described the process at the time. It was one of the few times over the past four decades where you could actually say you were impressed with the guy. I do think history could repeat itself this time around, even with the usual big spenders being involved. Edited October 21, 2018 by Fan O'Faust Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 hour ago, greg775 said: If the Sox truly are going to start being special in 2020, why not sign a few of these guys now that can help the team then? I'm sure the worry is all of them are old. But if we have the money and are not going to win the Machado/Harper sweepstakes (there's no real buzz out there the Sox are true contenders for them), why not get more realistic and sign one or two of these guys out of this group: Robertson and Ottavino/Miller for the pen; Grandal for catcher, Brantley for OF and Keuchel for starter and Moustakas for third? How bout Brantley and Grandal and Moustakas and work on the pitchers later? I think it's a big challenge for the White Sox in the future to sign FAs. I've been reading some astronomical salary figures. Go in the vicinity of four year deals. Because they are very unlikely to start being special in 2020, not after the lack of progress and injuries this season, and not after Kopech went down. And in 2020 the White Sox have 2 catchers arriving, so you've blocked the catchers with your signings and probably wasted that money. And you've blocked Cease with Keuchel. And you've blocked all their relievers and some of them are going to have to be non-tendered for those roster spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 4 hours ago, wrathofhahn said: I totally forgot Richards got injured. Of course he needs to be added to the list as well. Thats an idea and his agent isn't Boras so I could see him going for 3/30. Most agents look out for their clients and try to get them a little security Boras is only interested in the big deals so he lets his clients on bet on themselves and if they struggle coming back from TJS surgery well it aint him that's screwed he's still got 5 big names already lined up for free agency. That option seems sort of unreasonable for the player. I would be very unhappy about offering a 3 year deal to a starting pitcher with this organization. Which pitcher are we removing from the rotation of Rodon, Kopech, Cease, Giolito, and Lopez in 2020? Are we throwing in the towel on Giolito already? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 5 hours ago, wrathofhahn said: Like I said earlier we still have 3-4 spots open even if we sign three guys and since they are signed to shortterm deals we can always move them should they be playing well to open up a spot. Who knows maybe you get a couple interesting guys via trade. A bunch of those guys have options. Do you know who on that list is out of options? 3 or 4 spots in the pen? I don't agree with that at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: I would be very unhappy about offering a 3 year deal to a starting pitcher with this organization. Which pitcher are we removing from the rotation of Rodon, Kopech, Cease, Giolito, and Lopez in 2020? Are we throwing in the towel on Giolito already? I haven't, but I think the majority of the fanbase threw in the towel on him by June. Those of us that think Giolito could still be a good pitcher are a very small minority. I think the majority of the fanbase would actually jump for joy if they DFA him this offseason or trade him for a bag of heavily used baseballs. It wouldn't and shouldn't happen, but that is how the fanbase feels about him. Edited October 21, 2018 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: I haven't, but I think the majority of the fanbase threw in the towel on him by June. Those of us that think Giolito could still be a good pitcher are a very small minority. Who cares what the fanbase wants I care about whether the Giolito who was legitimately good in August can be brought around more often. The majority of the fanbase threw in the towel on Gavin Floyd in 2007 and he was a really good pitcher the next year. There was one person here who prominently said "I could hit Gavin Floyd!" It's clear the White Sox are going to give him a shot in 2019 to show that he is improving. By 2020, his shot may have run out, but definitely not this year and absolutely not with free agent spending. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: Who cares what the fanbase wants I care about whether the Giolito who was legitimately good in August can be brought around more often. The majority of the fanbase threw in the towel on Gavin Floyd in 2007 and he was a really good pitcher the next year. There was one person here who prominently said "I could hit Gavin Floyd!" It's clear the White Sox are going to give him a shot in 2019 to show that he is improving. By 2020, his shot may have run out, but definitely not this year and absolutely not with free agent spending. I'm with you 100% You and I are in lock step in many ways with regard to the Sox. I don't think Hahn is the worst GM in baseball history, but I don't think he and KW should have been around and allowed to make the rebuild trades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: I would be very unhappy about offering a 3 year deal to a starting pitcher with this organization. Which pitcher are we removing from the rotation of Rodon, Kopech, Cease, Giolito, and Lopez in 2020? Are we throwing in the towel on Giolito already? If Giolito doesn’t take a significant step forward in 2019, then he won’t be in the rotation come 2020. That should be fairy obvious. Rodon isn’t a lock to be part of the long-term mix either given his limited team control. You’re also ignoring potential injuries. Adding a veteran starter gives us more flexibility and sets us up better for a 2020 wild card run if enough things go right next year. Worrying about having too much starting pitching is like the ultimate first world problem and something I’ll happily deal with in 2020 in the unlikely even it materializes. That being said, I would try to limit any deal to two or three years (depending on the pitcher) if possible by offering up a higher AAV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Who cares what the fanbase wants I care about whether the Giolito who was legitimately good in August can be brought around more often. The majority of the fanbase threw in the towel on Gavin Floyd in 2007 and he was a really good pitcher the next year. There was one person here who prominently said "I could hit Gavin Floyd!" It's clear the White Sox are going to give him a shot in 2019 to show that he is improving. By 2020, his shot may have run out, but definitely not this year and absolutely not with free agent spending. How does signing a free agent pitcher impact Giolito’s shot this year? Last I saw we have two holes in the rotation and another starter who has never managed to stay healthy an entire season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said: If Giolito doesn’t take a significant step forward in 2019, then he won’t be in the rotation come 2020. That should be fairy obvious. Rodon isn’t a lock to be part of the long-term mix either given his limited team control. You’re also ignoring potential injuries. Adding a veteran starter gives us more flexibility and sets us up better for a 2020 wild card run if enough things go right next year. Worrying about having too much starting pitching is like the ultimate first world problem and something I’ll happily deal with in 2020 in the unlikely even it materializes. That being said, I would try to limit any deal to two or three years (depending on the pitcher) if possible by offering up a higher AAV. Great, get 1 year contract starters this offseason and reassess where we are after the season. You mention injuries and flexibility, but having a guy on a multi-year deal robs us of flexibility. Don't commit us to having a $10 million or $15 million pitcher in 2020 to make a run at the wild card and then wind up holding that pitcher after he gets hurt or Rodon gets hurt or traded. I'm not worrying about having too much pitching I'm worrying about blocking our pitching and spending money in a way that brings a poor return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: How does signing a free agent pitcher impact Giolito’s shot this year? Last I saw we have two holes in the rotation and another starter who has never managed to stay healthy an entire season. It doesn't. But let's go with the hypothetical that Gio has a decent season in 2019...who are you tossing out to make room for your $15 million starter? Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Cease, or Rodon? You're not putting a $30 million contract starter in the bullpen for those guys and until proven otherwise they should all have spots in 2020. If something happens...I will bet you money that there will be "Starting pitchers" available on the free agent market in 2020, and as I said we have a boatload of other guys who might step up this year at BHam and Charlotte to fill a spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 3 hours ago, greg775 said: If the Sox truly are going to start being special in 2020, why not sign a few of these guys now that can help the team then? I'm sure the worry is all of them are old. But if we have the money and are not going to win the Machado/Harper sweepstakes (there's no real buzz out there the Sox are true contenders for them), why not get more realistic and sign one or two of these guys out of this group: Robertson and Ottavino/Miller for the pen; Grandal for catcher, Brantley for OF and Keuchel for starter and Moustakas for third? How bout Brantley and Grandal and Moustakas and work on the pitchers later? I think it's a big challenge for the White Sox in the future to sign FAs. I've been reading some astronomical salary figures. Go in the vicinity of four year deals. No thank you; for many reasons, including some of those guys won't be so special in 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Balta1701 said: I would be very unhappy about offering a 3 year deal to a starting pitcher with this organization. Which pitcher are we removing from the rotation of Rodon, Kopech, Cease, Giolito, and Lopez in 2020? Are we throwing in the towel on Giolito already? Rodon may be traded before he hits free agency because of his agent and his track record of taking his guys by and large to that stage. If he does go free agency, especially if he remains healthy and pitches well, barring new ownership, he'll probably be out of the price range of the Sox so that could be a piece needed to be replaced especially with the uncertain status of Kopech, Dunning and Hansen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Lip Man 1 said: Rodon may be traded before he hits free agency because of his agent and his track record of taking his guys by and large to that stage. If he does go free agency, especially if he remains healthy and pitches well, barring new ownership, he'll probably be out of the price range of the Sox so that could be a piece needed to be replaced especially with the uncertain status of Kopech, Dunning and Hansen. That's swell. Sign a guy to fill the hole once it happens. Do you think Rodon is tradeable for a fair return this offseason? I sure wouldn't pay a high price for him if I were an opposing GM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: That's swell. Sign a guy to fill the hole once it happens. Do you think Rodon is tradeable for a fair return this offseason? I sure wouldn't pay a high price for him if I were an opposing GM. Rodon wasn't very good last season; but presuming he improves to mid-rotation or better, they can just hold him until July of his final year anyway. They'll get a decent enough return in July. Now that is 2021 and it certainly would be nice if the team is competitive then as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 29 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: It doesn't. But let's go with the hypothetical that Gio has a decent season in 2019...who are you tossing out to make room for your $15 million starter? Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Cease, or Rodon? You're not putting a $30 million contract starter in the bullpen for those guys and until proven otherwise they should all have spots in 2020. If something happens...I will bet you money that there will be "Starting pitchers" available on the free agent market in 2020, and as I said we have a boatload of other guys who might step up this year at BHam and Charlotte to fill a spot. In that unlikely scenario, I would trade the $15M/year starter to free up a spot. But realistically speaking, I don’t envision both Giolito & Rodon here to start the 2020 season. Both guys are huge question marks at the moment for me (for different reasons). And either way, I think there is value in having a veteran lead a young staff. Again, it all depends on the contract. The starting pitching market actually has some depth this year and we might be able to find some value there. I would not overpay substantially for stability & veteran leadership, but I’m prepared to go multi-year for the right guy at the right price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: In that unlikely scenario, I would trade the $15M/year starter to free up a spot. But realistically speaking, I don’t envision both Giolito & Rodon here to start the 2020 season. Both guys are huge question marks at the moment for me (for different reasons). And either way, I think there is value in having a veteran lead a young staff. Again, it all depends on the contract. The starting pitching market actually has some depth this year and we might be able to find some value there. I would not overpay substantially for stability & veteran leadership, but I’m prepared to go multi-year for the right guy at the right price. The reason why we are talking about being in the Machado and Harper races is what Rick Hahn said - these are potentially unique players and the opportunity to sign someone like them might only come around once every 5 or 10 years. But the opportunity to sign a mid-rotation or back-rotation starter? That's there every year. There's no reason to commit multiple years to a starter to fill a role this year if we aren't certain we'll need that same role filled next year. If we need that role filled next year...heck whoever we sign to 1 year deals this offseason, they'll be available next year too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: The reason why we are talking about being in the Machado and Harper races is what Rick Hahn said - these are potentially unique players and the opportunity to sign someone like them might only come around once every 5 or 10 years. But the opportunity to sign a mid-rotation or back-rotation starter? That's there every year. There's no reason to commit multiple years to a starter to fill a role this year if we aren't certain we'll need that same role filled next year. If we need that role filled next year...heck whoever we sign to 1 year deals this offseason, they'll be available next year too. I think the Sox might trade for Max Fried and Jeff Hoffman this offseason to fill out their rotation. Both pitchers are young enough to stick and have upside left, but both also have fallen out of favor with their team. Hoffman will probably be cheap, Fried will be more expensive. Giolito and Fried were teammates in HS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 56 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: That's swell. Sign a guy to fill the hole once it happens. Do you think Rodon is tradeable for a fair return this offseason? I sure wouldn't pay a high price for him if I were an opposing GM. Not at the start of the season but by June? Maybe...if he pitches well, if he is healthy...he could return a lot since he'd still have about a year and a half to go on his deal before he hits FA. Something to watch for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: I think the Sox might trade for Max Fried and Jeff Hoffman this offseason to fill out their rotation. Both pitchers are young enough to stick and have upside left, but both also have fallen out of favor with their team. Hoffman will probably be cheap, Fried will be more expensive. Giolito and Fried were teammates in HS. I would be ok with one of those kinda guys and giving up something minor for them (using Kevan Smith and Fulmer to go after someone else's depressed asset has made sense since they were suggested for Gray), but if we were to do that with one guy, that makes the case for bringing back Shields stronger. Hoffman only threw 108 innings total last year and he might be Fulmer bad to the point where we give up and replace him. I don't know anything about Fried but it looks like the Braves put him in their bullpen last year, it looks like he would seem to have legit value on a contending team, so I'm not sure he's a reasonable target for us unless he's part of a package for Rodon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said: Not at the start of the season but by June? Maybe...if he pitches well, if he is healthy...he could return a lot since he'd still have about a year and a half to go on his deal before he hits FA. Something to watch for. 2.5 years. Anyway, yeah if he were to get off to a great start that's the thing that could build his trade value...but you can't go and sign a pitcher and sit them for the first half just to see if Rodon pulls off a good first half. If we did move him (and somehow we do a move totally unlike the White Sox and bring back no pitching), and we need a starter next offseason, there's pitching available that year. If we were smart about our money this year, Sale, Porcello, Verlander, Cole, Wacha, Bumgarner, and others all have contracts ending after 2019. If you really want pitching and you have a real hole, go get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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