Guys we should target on short term deals

[wrathofhahn]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I would be very unhappy about offering a 3 year deal to a starting pitcher with this organization. Which pitcher are we removing from the rotation of Rodon, Kopech, Cease, Giolito, and Lopez in 2020? Are we throwing in the towel on Giolito already?

 

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Who cares what the fanbase wants I care about whether the Giolito who was legitimately good in August can be brought around more often. The majority of the fanbase threw in the towel on Gavin Floyd in 2007 and he was a really good pitcher the next year. There was one person here who prominently said "I could hit Gavin Floyd!" It's clear the White Sox are going to give him a shot in 2019 to show that he is improving. By 2020, his shot may have run out, but definitely not this year and absolutely not with free agent spending. 

Who the f knows what these guys are going to be in 2020. I'd rather have Richards in my back pocket then dream on guys. Especially someone like Giolito.

 

[Balta1701]

Just now, wrathofhahn said:

 

Who the f knows what these guys are going to be in 2020. I'd rather have Richards in my back pocket then dream on guys. Especially someone like Giolito.

 

I'd rather have the money you want to spend on Richards in my back pocket going into 2020.

[Jack Parkman]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I would be ok with one of those kinda guys and giving up something minor for them (using Kevan Smith and Fulmer to go after someone else's depressed asset has made sense since they were suggested for Gray), but if we were to do that with one guy, that makes the case for bringing back Shields stronger. Hoffman only threw 108 innings total last year and he might be Fulmer bad to the point where we give up and replace him. I don't know anything about Fried but it looks like the Braves put him in their bullpen last year, it looks like he would seem to have legit value on a contending team, so I'm not sure he's a reasonable target for us unless he's part of a package for Rodon?

No, I think Fried could be a trade for someone like Rutherford, Gonzalez or Adolfo, because the Sox have OF logjam problems. Of those three, I think Adolfo is the most likely. Fried is someone a lot of prospect guys like as a SP, but the Braves don't have room for him long term in their rotation.  I wouldn't be opposed to bringing back Shields for a 6th option as a long reliever/spot starter. 

Edited October 21, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

No, I think he could be a trade for someone like Rutherford or Adolfo, because the Sox have OF logjam problems. 

Well first of all...that sort of deal makes little sense for the Braves. They already have a strong system and they're competitive right now, even if they just view that guy as a bullpen piece, why would they trade a bullpen piece (or a potential 24 year old starter) for a AA outfielder? Second, Adolfo in a trade is even rougher right now as he just had the Tommy John surgery, so I'm not sure what value if anything he has to the Braves. Maybe the Braves really like Rutherford and somehow that's a matchup, but the same basic problem exists - why are the Braves hurting their big league squad to help their AA squad when they already have a strong organization and they're going to be facing a stronger Phillies team next year?

Personally I'd rather hold onto Rutherford and the other outfielders for a season and let them continue playing their way up. If they continue having success, they'll have their biggest value in trades after they have strong years at AA and maybe AAA. If we have to move one or two of them because things stay so crowded, they'll be great ammunition to fill out a much stronger roster in 2021.

[Chicago White Sox]

17 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Not at  the start of the season but by June? Maybe...if he pitches well, if he is healthy...he could return a lot since he'd still have about a year and a half to go on his deal before he hits FA. Something to watch for.

FYI...Rodon is under control for three more seasons.

[wrathofhahn]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'd rather have the money you want to spend on Richards in my back pocket going into 2020.

The other guy suggested what 3/30 that really is nothing inregards to starting pitching and is a good bet to take.

Also the likelyhood is at least two of those five guys you mentioned either doesn't make it or gets injured. Kopech is already coming back from TJS and will likely be on an innings limit. I don't get your stance at all when there is a good value bet to make I want this FO to pounce on that.

I'm not buying this pie in the sky thinking that all five of our current bets and that is all they are at this point all (even Rodon is one from a health standpoint) are going to come up aces. Projecting that to happen in the future seems almost negligent to me.  I mean it's fine to do as a fan but as a GM? I want to have some f'n contingencies and options incase of injuries, MLB regressions, and guys in the minors not turning out.

Edited October 21, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well first of all...that sort of deal makes little sense for the Braves. They already have a strong system and they're competitive right now, even if they just view that guy as a bullpen piece, why would they trade a bullpen piece (or a potential 24 year old starter) for a AA outfielder? Second, Adolfo in a trade is even rougher right now as he just had the Tommy John surgery, so I'm not sure what value if anything he has to the Braves. Maybe the Braves really like Rutherford and somehow that's a matchup, but the same basic problem exists - why are the Braves hurting their big league squad to help their AA squad when they already have a strong organization and they're going to be facing a stronger Phillies team next year?

Personally I'd rather hold onto Rutherford and the other outfielders for a season and let them continue playing their way up. If they continue having success, they'll have their biggest value in trades after they have strong years at AA and maybe AAA. If we have to move one or two of them because things stay so crowded, they'll be great ammunition to fill out a much stronger roster in 2021.

The majority of the Braves top talent is in starting pitching. They have very little in terms of position players down on the farm. Acuna and Albies are pretty much it at the MLB level in terms of cost controlled position players. 

Edited October 21, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

The argument of adding legit starters (Shields traded for Myers/Odorizzi to KC, Lester to Cubs) on multi-year deals is obvious for 2020.

This year, it’s all about holding the rotation together.  Covey’s fate is still also undecided.

The only exception is that unique case of a currently injured pitcher you really believe who would, at the very least, be around for 2020 with at least a club option for 2021 (see Richards).

[wrathofhahn]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

The argument of adding legit starters (Shields traded for Myers/Odorizzi to KC, Lester to Cubs) on multi-year deals is obvious for 2020.

This year, it’s all about holding the rotation together.  Covey’s fate is still also undecided.

The only exception is that unique case of a currently injured pitcher you really believe who would, at the very least, be around for 2020 with at least a club option for 2021 (see Richards).

That's how I am approaching it as well. Unless we come across an opportunity like Richards I want 1yr guys and see what we have in 2020 but that is more to fact I want some guys to move at the deadline and I also don't want to take bad bets (mid rotation starters in FA major risks and are almost always overpriced).

That doesn't mean I am sort of blind to the need especially with Kopech TJS. We need pitching. Just the entire league does as well and the timing has to line up.

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

FYI...Rodon is under control for three more seasons.

Even better. The earlier you deal him in theory the more you can get back since the team getting him has him for a longer period of time. 2019 is probably to early yet but I can certainly see him moved in 2020, especially if the Sox rebuild still hasn't produced tangible results in the win / loss column.

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

The argument of adding legit starters (Shields traded for Myers/Odorizzi to KC, Lester to Cubs) on multi-year deals is obvious for 2020.

This year, it’s all about holding the rotation together.  Covey’s fate is still also undecided.

The only exception is that unique case of a currently injured pitcher you really believe who would, at the very least, be around for 2020 with at least a club option for 2021 (see Richards).

With respect I think Covey is a known commodity and it's not good. 

[southsider2k5]

From a high level it amazes me that Soxtalk has spent a decade plus hating the Kenny Williams win now type moves, only to have most of the same people posting Kenny Williams type win now moves in the middle of a rebuild. 

This first month of the off season has been all about quitting on young players and signing second level retread free agents. 

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

From a high level it amazes me that Soxtalk has spent a decade plus hating the Kenny Williams win now type moves, only to have most of the same people posting Kenny Williams type win now moves in the middle of a rebuild. 

This first month of the off season has been all about quitting on young players and signing second level retread free agents. 

I know it is so ridiculous. I'm fine with signing retreads if they aren't blocking anyone though, with the intent of flipping them at the deadline to gain more young talent at the deadline if they have a good year. 

I have an issue with the Sox FO thinking that the talent acquisition phase is over. It shouldn't be over until you break the 85 win mark. You always need more talent in the farm until then. Prospects are gold currently, and you can use them to get a player like Yelich.  2018 was a huge missed opportunity on that regard. I hope they don't make the same mistake in 2019. 

Edited October 22, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

That's how I am approaching it as well. Unless we come across an opportunity like Richards I want 1yr guys and see what we have in 2020 but that is more to fact I want some guys to move at the deadline and I also don't want to take bad bets (mid rotation starters in FA major risks and are almost always overpriced).

That doesn't mean I am sort of blind to the need especially with Kopech TJS. We need pitching. Just the entire league does as well and the timing has to line up.

See, I actually think Lance Lynn could be a nice value signing because of how the market is viewing mid rotation starters.  Last year very few starters got more than two year deals and several were massive busts (Cobb & Chatwood).  I fully expect that trend to continue this offseason with Lynn potentially being a victim of that line of thinking.  And that would be great for us IMO.  Lynn was a consistent 3 WAR pitched prior to his TJS.  He struggled in his first year back in 2017 and with the Twins last year, but was excellent with Yankees and had very solid peripherals overall.  And on top of that his velocity was back and as good as ever.  He’s looking much like the 3 WAR starter he was for the majority’s of his career.  If we can land him for say 2/$35M, that’s a contract I will happily roll the dice on because there is real potential for surplus value and limited long-term risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

From a high level it amazes me that Soxtalk has spent a decade plus hating the Kenny Williams win now type moves, only to have most of the same people posting Kenny Williams type win now moves in the middle of a rebuild. 

This first month of the off season has been all about quitting on young players and signing second level retread free agents. 

What young players are you referring to?  Most of the recent dialogue in this thread has centered around starting pitching and even Hahn has acknowledged this is a huge area of need in the near-term.

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I know it is so ridiculous. I'm fine with signing retreads if they aren't blocking anyone though, with the intent of flipping them at the deadline to gain more young talent at the deadline if they have a good year. 

I have an issue with the Sox FO thinking that the talent acquisition phase is over. It shouldn't be over until you break the 85 win mark. You always need more talent in the farm until then. Prospects are gold currently, and you can use them to get a player like Yelich.

I have never seen the Sox front office make any sort of statement suggesting the talent acquisition phase is over.  The problem is we don’t have a lot of assets that are both valuable and make sense to move, so it is effectively over in a way.  How do you suggest they add more talent then?  The returns on rentals have been pretty poor of late to put it lightly.

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

I have never seen the Sox front office make any sort of statement suggesting the talent acquisition phase is over.  The problem is we don’t have a lot of assets that are both valuable and make sense to move, so it is effectively over in a way.  How do you suggest they add more talent then?  The returns on rentals have been pretty poor of late to put it lightly.

I'd like them to try to do something like the Padres did with Tatis Jr. from the Sox. Target a player a ways away and try to poach them. 

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'd like them to try to do something like the Padres did with Tatis Jr. from the Sox. Target a player a ways away and try to poach them. 

That the White Sox FO is dumb enough to give up on a player they haven't seen does not mean that other teams will be. 

[caulfield12]

56 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

See, I actually think Lance Lynn could be a nice value signing because of how the market is viewing mid rotation starters.  Last year very few starters got more than two year deals and several were massive busts (Cobb & Chatwood).  I fully expect that trend to continue this offseason with Lynn potentially being a victim of that line of thinking.  And that would be great for us IMO.  Lynn was a consistent 3 WAR pitched prior to his TJS.  He struggled in his first year back in 2017 and with the Twins last year, but was excellent with Yankees and had very solid peripherals overall.  And on top of that his velocity was back and as good as ever.  He’s looking much like the 3 WAR starter he was for the majority’s of his career.  If we can land him for say 2/$35M, that’s a contract I will happily roll the dice on because there is real potential for surplus value and limited long-term risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not even sure it would cost $35....maybe $27.5 or $30 for 2 years?

It's the pitching equivalent of Kendrys Morales, where he was terrible when he wasn't signed until mid-season and never really got started that year, depressing his value.

As noted, his velocity finally picked up the second half of the year.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

36 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'd like them to try to do something like the Padres did with Tatis Jr. from the Sox. Target a player a ways away and try to poach them. 

Well sure, we’d all love to do this (including the Sox), but after a few teams got burned (us with Tatis, the Dodgers with Alvarez, the Marlins with Martes, etc.) it became much harder to pull these types of moves off.  GMs don’t want to be the guy who gave up a future stud for a mediocre player, so they’ll try to keep as many of these far-away guys off limits.  It’s just not viable strategy anymore and it still requires having tradable pieces which we lack.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I actually take the opposite approach to many in this thread. I hope they buy relief pitching and lots of it. The bullpen was one of the main reasons why the Sox were so bad this year and addressing that now makes sense given that the reliever market is pretty deep in this free agency class. I'd love to see guys like Jeurys Familia and Kelvin Herrera in the Sox bullpen next year. Signing relievers is a risky proposition simply because it's a volatile position, but I'd like to see some veterans brought in on 2-3 year deals before the homegrown guys like Burdi, Johnson, Hamilton, Frare, etc become established at the MLB level.

[Chicago White Sox]

20 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

I actually take the opposite approach to many in this thread. I hope they buy relief pitching and lots of it. The bullpen was one of the main reasons why the Sox were so bad this year and addressing that now makes sense given that the reliever market is pretty deep in this free agency class. I'd love to see guys like Jeurys Familia and Kelvin Herrera in the Sox bullpen next year. Signing relievers is a risky proposition simply because it's a volatile position, but I'd like to see some veterans brought in on 2-3 year deals before the homegrown guys like Burdi, Johnson, Hamilton, Frare, etc become established at the MLB level.

See, I would be against adding any relievers for big dollars.  I think we have a ton of young, exciting arms that actually warrant opportunities next year.  By all means, look at a bounce-back guy on a one year deal & add some NRI’s to the mix, but expensive multi-year relievers are typically poor investments when you’re not ready to compete.

[caulfield12]

Let's just hope Burdi can get back to the high 90's by next season.

At 93-95, he's basically Carson Fulmer.

Without an established back-end guy, you're going to be forcing Jones in that role, not to mention everyone is "moved up" perhaps earlier than they're ready (and Jones' health prognosis might be worse than Rodon's)...I'm not sure how wise it is to have Ian Hamilton getting his brains beaten in late, but maybe it will work out slotting 3 young guys and Jones into the back-end that you utilize to close out games.

A decade ago, it meant overspending on Dotel and Linebrink for that very same reason, but that was a "win now" mode team back in 2007-2009.  The pen was so terrible in the 7th and 8th, they HAD to do something or they were going to blow 16-17 leads from the 7th inning on like this year's team.

Then you get into the overspending on a veteran who you might not even really need the first 1 1/2 or even 2 years of what would likely be a 3 year deal.

[Flash]

9 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I know it is so ridiculous. I'm fine with signing retreads if they aren't blocking anyone though, with the intent of flipping them at the deadline to gain more young talent at the deadline if they have a good year. 

I have an issue with the Sox FO thinking that the talent acquisition phase is over. It shouldn't be over until you break the 85 win mark. You always need more talent in the farm until then. Prospects are gold currently, and you can use them to get a player like Yelich.  2018 was a huge missed opportunity on that regard. I hope they don't make the same mistake in 2019. 

There were 27 teams (90% of MLB) better than the White Sox last year. All but 1 or 2 are seeking to improve...nothing remains static. For the Sox to gain ground, they will need performance improvement at virtually every position. Replacement level players won't cut it vs. the Red Sox, Astros, Yankees, Indians, etc. For this reason, the rebuild cannot be over. This is where the FO needs to be creative, such as take on bad contracts, package minor leagues talent, make smart FA acquisitions, etc. I believe this off-season will define the effectiveness of this FO, the results of which will determine the fate and timeline of the rebuild. This will be the hard part.  

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, Flash said:

There were 27 teams (90% of MLB) better than the White Sox last year. All but 1 or 2 are seeking to improve...nothing remains static. For the Sox to gain ground, they will need performance improvement at virtually every position. Replacement level players won't cut it vs. the Red Sox, Astros, Yankees, Indians, etc. For this reason, the rebuild cannot be over. This is where the FO needs to be creative, such as take on bad contracts, package minor leagues talent, make smart FA acquisitions, etc. I believe this off-season will define the effectiveness of this FO, the results of which will determine the fate and timeline of the rebuild. This will be the hard part.  

100% agreed. Nice post.