thxfrthmmrs Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: I feel like my numbers are pretty realistic. I’m assuming Machado’s top offers peak around 10/$350M, so we’d have to go to like 10/$375M make him seriously consider us. Pomeranz at $9M & Allen at $11M seem like fair pillow contracts, if not slight conservative. I read the first page and projections for Ryu, Marvin and Donaldson to name a few seem way off. As for Machado, I have to agree it will take $350 mil for him to sign here, $20-30 mil above market price. So we could pretty much rule him out given JR’s history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted October 26, 2018 Author Share Posted October 26, 2018 1 minute ago, thxfrthmmrs said: I read the first page and projections for Ryu, Marvin and Donaldson to name a few seem way off. As for Machado, I have to agree it will take $350 mil for him to sign here, $20-30 mil above market price. So we could pretty much rule him out given JR’s history. I was probably off a bit on Ryu. With his injury history and age, I kind of doubt he's going to get a monster deal. But perhaps something like 3/$45-50 is more realistic. With regard to Machado and the bolded, your take is that the Sox will have to pay $20-30M above the next highest bidder to get him? Why? Just because the Sox haven't typically played in the monster FA pool? I've never understood that seemingly common opinion of many Sox fans on here. You really think the Sox are that looked down upon by players around the league? Just seems so little brotherish. I don't think Machado is going to take a discount to play for the Sox, or for anyone, but I do think he'll go to the highest bidder, assuming its not super close to his preferred location (where ever that its). If the Sox are the highest bidder, he probably signs here. They won't need to blow the next closest bid out of the water by like 10-15% as so many around here seem to think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thxfrthmmrs Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: I was probably off a bit on Ryu. With his injury history and age, I kind of doubt he's going to get a monster deal. But perhaps something like 3/$45-50 is more realistic. With regard to Machado and the bolded, your take is that the Sox will have to pay $20-30M above the next highest bidder to get him? Why? Just because the Sox haven't typically played in the monster FA pool? I've never understood that seemingly common opinion of many Sox fans on here. You really think the Sox are that looked down upon by players around the league? Just seems so little brotherish. I don't think Machado is going to take a discount to play for the Sox, or for anyone, but I do think he'll go to the highest bidder, assuming its not super close to his preferred location (where ever that its). If the Sox are the highest bidder, he probably signs here. They won't need to blow the next closest bid out of the water by like 10-15% as so many around here seem to think. When you're getting a $300m contract, the difference between a $300m and $310m contract becomes minuscule. The monetary difference does not outweigh the values the other team could offer - prestige, readiness to compete, org culture, marketability, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 1 hour ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said: How murky is our future 3B situation? Depends on how you view the Moncada / Madrigal situation. If you assume both of those guys will be major league regulars (which I do), then I think we potentially have 3B covered. If not, I’m more optimistic of us going out and signing a star 3B (Machado, Arenado, Rendon, etc) then us committing to a 5+ year contract to a legit TOR starter with Reinsdorf as owner. Therefore, we’ll likely have to develop our own TOR starters and Kopech & Cease are our best chances at that. I’d much rather move someone like Rodon, even I had to throw in a prospect because the odds of him being here after 2021 are slim to none IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 35 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Honestly if the contract being at fully price is really true, I don't think Jones will be back. It would be one thing at $500k, but I don't see it at 10 times that. If they really want a veteran arm, there are plenty of others on the market, but I don't think they will. Yeah I don't agree at all. I fully expect Jones to be back. I'll be very surprised if he's not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 19 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: I was probably off a bit on Ryu. With his injury history and age, I kind of doubt he's going to get a monster deal. But perhaps something like 3/$45-50 is more realistic. With regard to Machado and the bolded, your take is that the Sox will have to pay $20-30M above the next highest bidder to get him? Why? Just because the Sox haven't typically played in the monster FA pool? I've never understood that seemingly common opinion of many Sox fans on here. You really think the Sox are that looked down upon by players around the league? Just seems so little brotherish. I don't think Machado is going to take a discount to play for the Sox, or for anyone, but I do think he'll go to the highest bidder, assuming its not super close to his preferred location (where ever that its). If the Sox are the highest bidder, he probably signs here. They won't need to blow the next closest bid out of the water by like 10-15% as so many around here seem to think. We just finished with the third worst record and will be competing with a bunch of clubs that will be playoff contenders next year. Offering a couple million more won’t be enough IMO. We will have to do something noticeable to get him to deal with the likely losing in the short-run. I think $20M or so above the next best offer is probably a fair guess and those dollars will need to be in the first few years so that it’s real value to him and not part of the post opt-out insurance policy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted October 26, 2018 Author Share Posted October 26, 2018 21 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said: When you're getting a $300m contract, the difference between a $300m and $310m contract becomes minuscule. The monetary difference does not outweigh the values the other team could offer - prestige, readiness to compete, org culture, marketability, etc. Who do you consider to be MM main suitors? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: Who do you consider to be MM main suitors? NYY and PHIL seem to be the top two by the odds makers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted October 26, 2018 Author Share Posted October 26, 2018 11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: We just finished with the third worst record and will be competing with a bunch of clubs that will be playoff contenders next year. Offering a couple million more won’t be enough IMO. We will have to do something noticeable to get him to deal with the likely losing in the short-run. I think $20M or so above the next best offer is probably a fair guess and those dollars will need to be in the first few years so that it’s real value to him and not part of the post opt-out insurance policy. One of the top 3-4 FA and another top 10 or so FA signed with the Phillies after a 66 win season last year. Not every major FA decides to sign with the "blue bloods". Signing MM is a long shot, I get that, I just don't think the Sox will have to blow the rest of the market out of the water to land him (they probably wouldn't anyway). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrathofhahn Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 59 minutes ago, Dam8610 said: It's great if they can get one of Machado or Arenado. Sox have two guys who would fill immediate needs in Groome and Chavis who fortunes have declined a bit and Chavis is blocked. I wonder if there is a deal to be made in the offseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said: One of the top 3-4 FA and another top 10 or so FA signed with the Phillies after a 66 win season last year. Not every major FA decides to sign with the "blue bloods". Signing MM is a long shot, I get that, I just don't think the Sox will have to blow the rest of the market out of the water to land him (they probably wouldn't anyway). The elephant in the room is ... why would you pay for a guy who is going to make an incredible amount of money and is a potential problem in the clubhouse. He himself says he won't hustle down the line when he doesn't want to. He has done some weird stuff on the basepaths to piss off opponents, stuff that appears unsportsmanlike. If ever there were red flags, they are on this guy MM. We can argue all day whether we think the Sox will pay what it takes to get him (I say no way will they pay) but even if they do, I'm a bit surprised Soxtalk wants him. Why surprised? Potentially crippling about of money if he gets hurt or stinks the final 3-4 years of his deal; potential problems in clubhouse concerning his lack of hustle when RR wants hustle. Edited October 26, 2018 by greg775 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 56 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: One of the top 3-4 FA and another top 10 or so FA signed with the Phillies after a 66 win season last year. Not every major FA decides to sign with the "blue bloods". Signing MM is a long shot, I get that, I just don't think the Sox will have to blow the rest of the market out of the water to land him (they probably wouldn't anyway). Sure, but did the Phillies offer more money than others did for Arrieta & Santana? My guess is they probably did. And I’m not sure I’d call $25M on top of $350M blowing the rest of the market out of the water. That’s like 7% more money in total, obviously it’s more impactful if front loaded. Regardless, unless he just loves Chicago, money will need to be the key differentiator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 I still see him going to the Yankees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, greg775 said: The elephant in the room is ... why would you pay for a guy who is going to make an incredible amount of money and is a potential problem in the clubhouse. He himself says he won't hustle down the line when he doesn't want to. He has done some weird stuff on the basepaths to piss off opponents, stuff that appears unsportsmanlike. If ever there were red flags, they are on this guy MM. We can argue all day whether we think the Sox will pay what it takes to get him (I say no way will they pay) but even if they do, I'm a bit surprised Soxtalk wants him. lol...I guess coming off a 100 loss season we should focus on high character guys and not young, 6 WAR players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said: I still see him going to the Yankees. Right now I see the odds as follows: Phillies 40% White Sox 30% Yankees 20% All Other 10% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said: lol...I guess coming off a 100 loss season we should focus on high character guys and not young, 6 WAR players. He turns 27 next July. A 10 year deal means he could be inefficient the last 3 years of the 10-year deal. That assumes he stays healthy and all that. It just seems weird the mid market White Sox would pay one player all that money when he has red flags. As far as character, Soxtalk was quite excited to get rid of Sale cause of his scissoring the uniforms and general attitude and he's a star, too. Also from what I can tell the national media isn't even listing the Sox as a vague possibility for MM. All this supports my position rather than deserving a simple lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Right now I see the odds as follows: Phillies 40% White Sox 30% Yankees 20% All Other 10% Simple question: Have you seen any reports of the Sox being involved except for the vague references to Hahn in interviews implying we might go after him?? Not fighting, just looking for Sox mentions in regards to MM or Harper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 This is reductive but I want to repeat that it's important for the rebuild that whomever Hahn signs this year turns out to be good (or what was expected) and healthy, because his run in the free agent market has been terrible. We talk a lot about whether Renteria is the manager that can get the team to the playoffs, well, the same can apply to Hahn. Not every GM can be good at both teardowns, rebuilds and contenders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 12 minutes ago, greg775 said: Simple question: Have you seen any reports of the Sox being involved except for the vague references to Hahn in interviews implying we might go after him?? Not fighting, just looking for Sox mentions in regards to MM or Harper. There are very zero reports of anyone specifically saying they would go after him because he is still a contracted member of the Los Angeles Dodgers playing in the World Series and that would be the very definition of tampering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Honestly, I don't know why the Yankees would want Machado. Their offense is already good even without Gregorius. They need a top of the rotation starting pitcher way more than an infielder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 38 minutes ago, bmags said: This is reductive but I want to repeat that it's important for the rebuild that whomever Hahn signs this year turns out to be good (or what was expected) and healthy, because his run in the free agent market has been terrible. We talk a lot about whether Renteria is the manager that can get the team to the playoffs, well, the same can apply to Hahn. Not every GM can be good at both teardowns, rebuilds and contenders. Good point. Gotta hope the rumored changes in the pro scouting department are true and pay off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 17 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said: Honestly, I don't know why the Yankees would want Machado. Their offense is already good even without Gregorius. They need a top of the rotation starting pitcher way more than an infielder. Sure, but what starters do you fee comfortable throwing big money at? They’re very likely to get Corbin, after that it’s a wild card. Better off signing Machado and trading some positional talent for a controllable arm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 41 minutes ago, greg775 said: Simple question: Have you seen any reports of the Sox being involved except for the vague references to Hahn in interviews implying we might go after him?? Not fighting, just looking for Sox mentions in regards to MM or Harper. I mean, it was heavily rumored we were explored trading for him last offseason prior to a 100 loss season, so I think it’s all but a certainty we pursue him now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 16 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: I’m not sure how anyone could call Jon Gray a “marginal veteran”. He’s the same age as Narvaez and has significantly more upside. We’re talking about a former 3rd overall pick who has had very good peripherals in the majors. Get him out of Coors and he could easily be a stud. And I like Luery, but he’d a small price to pay to get an arm like Gray, especially when he only has two years of team control left. Gray is one of these guys who never seems to achieve his potential. I can't lay everything at the feet of Coors. If the Sox meticulously scout him and watch copious amounts of tape and see something that they are confident that they can fix, then he's intriguing. But it's just hard to have that confidence in this staff that they do and the fix 'em prescription anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said: Sure, but what starters do you fee comfortable throwing big money at? They’re very likely to get Corbin, after that it’s a wild card. Better off signing Machado and trading some positional talent for a controllable arm. Kershaw, Keuchel, J.A. Happ, Charlie Morton, Nathan Eovaldi...hell, even Hyun Jin Ryu or Wade Miley. Edited October 26, 2018 by Whitesox27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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