Your Offseason Plan

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Apparently the Diamondbacks are shopping Zack Greinke hard. That might be an intriguing short term possibility if they're willing to eat at least half of his contract.

[ChiSox59]

Revised IDGAF let’s make some moves plan:

Non-tender Avi

Sign McCutchen 2 years $30M

Sign Pollock 3 years $50M

Sign Familia 2 years $18M

Sign Manny Machado (effectively 4 years and 180M assuming he takes opt out; 4 years and 130M left (8/$310M))

Sign Ervin Santana 1 year $7M

Sign Drew Pomeranz 1 year $6M

Tyson Ross 1 year $4M + option 

Pollock CF, Moncada 2B, Machado 3B, Abreu 1B, McCutchen RF, Eloy LF, Palka/Davidson DH, Anderson SS, Narvaez/Castillo C 

Rodon, Lopez, Gio, Santana and Pomeranz 

Ross rotation insurance and Could stick him (or Pomeranz) in bullpen if need be. 

Jerry opens the wallet and brings the payroll near $150M in 2019 without any major commitments long term other than Machado. Leaves space in the rotation for Cease and Kopech in 2020. Generally allows the young bullpen guys the opportunity they need next season with some veteran insurance. It looks like a pretty strong offensive team that gets on base and scores a lot of runs. OF defense would be questionable. 

If the Indians sell off, that team could be interesting. And it just doesn’t (IMHO) set the rebuild back at all. These guys are blocking no one in 2019, and deals are short term. Zero prospects given up via trade. It’s just spending money that otherwise wouldn’t be spent and isn’t magically getting reallocated to future seasons.

I know a sizable chunk here will hate it, but man it’d fun. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Alright, here’s my proposed “going for it” in 2019 plan.  The idea is to put out a team that can challenge for the division next year and build up some hype from the fanbase (needed to secure that TV money) without sacrificing the future.  Being honest here, I’m not a huge fan of spending big on Corbin, but he’s the only potential ace on the market and “going for it” requires adding someone of his caliber.  I would definitely  need Coop & Herm to vouch they can keep him healthy & productive.

Free Agents:

• Manny Machado, 3B - 10/$375M (opt-outs after years 4, 5, & 6)
• Andrew McCutchen, OF - 2/$36M
• Brian Dozier, 2B - 1/$10M
• Patrick Corbin, LHP - 6/$129M
• Cody Allen, RHP - 1/$11M
• Drew Pomeranz, LHP - 1/$8M

Trades:

• Carlos Rodon, LHP & Aaron Bummer, LHP for Jon Gray, RHP
• Yolmer Sánchez, 2B to Yankees for Freicer Perez, RHP

 Roster (April 16th):

1. Moncada, CF (0.6)
2. McCutchen, RF (18.0)
3. Machado, 3B (40.0)
4. Abreu, 1B (16.0)
5. Jimenez, LF (0.6)
6. Palka, DH (0.6)
7. Dozier, 2B (10.0)
8. Narvaez, C (0.6)
9. Anderson, SS (1.4)

         <Sub-Total: 87.9M>

• IF:  Rondon (0.6)
• OF: Engel (0.6)
• UT: Delmonico (0.6)
• BC: Castillo (7.3)

          <Sub-total: 9.1M>

1. Corbin (21.5)
2. Gray (3.2)
3. Lopez (0.6)
4. Pomeranz (8.0)
5. Giolito (0.6)

          <Sub-total: 33.9M>

• CL: Allen (11.0)
• SU: Hamilton (0.6)
• SU: Fry (0.6)
• MR: Jones (4.7)
• MR: Frare (0.6)
• MR: Burdi/Covey (0.6)
• LR:  Banuelos/Stephens (0.6)

          <Sub-total: 18.7M>

           <Grand-total: $149.6M>

2020 Transition Plan:

• Cease to rotation in 2H 2019 / 2020
• Kopech to rotation in 2020
• Tyler Johnson to bullpen in 2020
• Madrigal to 2B in 2020
• Zavala to C in 2H 2019 / 2020
• Collins to C/DH/1B 2H 2019 /2020
• Basabe to OF 2H 2019 / 2020

[caulfield12]

8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Alright, here’s my proposed “going for it” in 2019 plan.  The idea is to put out a team that can challenge for the division next year and build up some hype from the fanbase (needed to secure that TV money) without sacrificing the future.  Being honest here, I’m not a huge fan of spending big on Corbin, but he’s the only potential ace on the market and “going for it” requires adding someone of his caliber.  I would definitely  need Coop & Herm to vouch they can keep him healthy & productive.

Free Agents:

• Manny Machado, 3B - 10/$375M (opt-outs after years 4, 5, & 6)
• Andrew McCutchen, OF - 2/$36M
• Brian Dozier, 2B - 1/$10M
• Patrick Corbin, LHP - 6/$129M
• Cody Allen, RHP - 1/$11M
• Drew Pomeranz, LHP - 1/$8M

Trades:

• Carlos Rodon, LHP & Aaron Bummer, LHP for Jon Gray, RHP
• Yolmer Sánchez, 2B to Yankees for Freicer Perez, RHP

 Roster (April 16th):

1. Moncada, CF (0.6)
2. McCutchen, RF (18.0)
3. Machado, 3B (40.0)
4. Abreu, 1B (16.0)
5. Jimenez, LF (0.6)
6. Palka, DH (0.6)
7. Dozier, 2B (10.0)
8. Narvaez, C (0.6)
9. Anderson, SS (1.4)

         <Sub-Total: 87.9M>

• IF:  Rondon (0.6)
• OF: Engel (0.6)
• UT: Delmonico (0.6)
• BC: Castillo (7.3)

          <Sub-total: 9.1M>

1. Corbin (21.5)
2. Gray (3.2)
3. Lopez (0.6)
4. Pomeranz (8.0)
5. Giolito (0.6)

          <Sub-total: 33.9M>

• CL: Allen (11.0)
• SU: Hamilton (0.6)
• SU: Fry (0.6)
• MR: Jones (4.7)
• MR: Frare (0.6)
• MR: Burdi/Covey (0.6)
• LR:  Banuelos/Stephens (0.6)

          <Sub-total: 18.7M>

           <Grand-total: $149.6M>

2020 Transition Plan:

• Cease to rotation in 2H 2019 / 2020
• Kopech to rotation in 2020
• Tyler Johnson to bullpen in 2020
• Madrigal to 2B in 2020
• Zavala to C in 2H 2019 / 2020
• Collins to C/DH/1B 2H 2019 /2020
• Basabe to OF 2H 2019 / 2020

Luis Robert needs to be ready at some point in 2020.

[hogan873]

9 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Alright, here’s my proposed “going for it” in 2019 plan.  The idea is to put out a team that can challenge for the division next year and build up some hype from the fanbase (needed to secure that TV money) without sacrificing the future.  Being honest here, I’m not a huge fan of spending big on Corbin, but he’s the only potential ace on the market and “going for it” requires adding someone of his caliber.  I would definitely  need Coop & Herm to vouch they can keep him healthy & productive.

 

           <Grand-total: $149.6M>

What's crazy is if you look at your plan you'd think there's no way based on money alone, then you see the payroll is still under $150M.  It's amazing how much flexibility the Sox have with the committed payroll being so low.  Now, how much will they actually commit to going after these guys?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Luis Robert needs to be ready at some point in 2020.

He’ll probably be up by 2H 2020, but the beauty of this plan is you don’t have to rely on that happening.  If he forces the issue then great, we can either move McCutchen to DH / the bench or shift Jimenez to 1B / DH.  We would have a ton of flexibility on the positional side of things.  If we want to be legit World Series contenders in 2020, that’s a good problem to have.

[Chicago White Sox]

33 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

What's crazy is if you look at your plan you'd think there's no way based on money alone, then you see the payroll is still under $150M.  It's amazing how much flexibility the Sox have with the committed payroll being so low.  Now, how much will they actually commit to going after these guys?

It definitely is crazy.  Now, will they actually spend up to $150M next year?  Probably unlikely, but with the huge increases in National TV money in recent years, I think that type of payroll is possible at our current attendance levels.  I fully expect us to get there by 2020 at the latest though.

[ChiSox59]

13 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Alright, here’s my proposed “going for it” in 2019 plan.  The idea is to put out a team that can challenge for the division next year and build up some hype from the fanbase (needed to secure that TV money) without sacrificing the future.  Being honest here, I’m not a huge fan of spending big on Corbin, but he’s the only potential ace on the market and “going for it” requires adding someone of his caliber.  I would definitely  need Coop & Herm to vouch they can keep him healthy & productive.

Free Agents:

• Manny Machado, 3B - 10/$375M (opt-outs after years 4, 5, & 6)
• Andrew McCutchen, OF - 2/$36M
• Brian Dozier, 2B - 1/$10M
• Patrick Corbin, LHP - 6/$129M
• Cody Allen, RHP - 1/$11M
• Drew Pomeranz, LHP - 1/$8M

Trades:

• Carlos Rodon, LHP & Aaron Bummer, LHP for Jon Gray, RHP
• Yolmer Sánchez, 2B to Yankees for Freicer Perez, RHP

 

I don't hate your plan, though I think its time to move on from Moncada in CF. There is no real indication from the organization that they'd move him to CF over 3B.

Also, I am not opening the checkbook to sign Patrick Corbin for 6 years, and then turning around and trading Rodon at not peak value, and I sure as shit am not trading him PLUS ANOTHER ASSET for Jon Gray.  Makes no sense to me.  Gray is a fine target, but Rodon has been measurably better as a pro, has a better pedigree, has better stuff, AND THEY BOTH HAVE 3 YEARS OF CONTROL.  Don't get this one at all, and IMO, would be an AWFUL trade for the White Sox.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't hate your plan, though I think its time to move on from Moncada in CF. There is no real indication from the organization that they'd move him to CF over 3B.

Also, I am not opening the checkbook to sign Patrick Corbin for 6 years, and then turning around and trading Rodon at not peak value, and I sure as shit am not trading him PLUS ANOTHER ASSET for Jon Gray.  Makes no sense to me.  Gray is a fine target, but Rodon has been measurably better as a pro, has a better pedigree, has better stuff, AND THEY BOTH HAVE 3 YEARS OF CONTROL.  Don't get this one at all, and IMO, would be an AWFUL trade for the White Sox.

Don’t disagree with your assessment in regards to Moncada, but I think if we add Machado then Yoan will be moved to the OF.  If you look at recent picks like Madrigal (polished college bat), they tend to move fast and oftentimes reach the majors in their first full season.  Right or wrong, I truly believe the Sox will take that into consideration this offseason and move Moncada off 2B.

As for Gray vs. Rodon, I thought I’d get eaten alive for that proposal, but for the exact opposite reason.  I’m not sure what metrics you’re looking at, but I don’t see much of an argument for Rodon having been better as a pro.  I personally think both have fantastic stuff but am willing to give the edge to Rodon given he’s a lefty.  Ultimately, I think both guys haven’t come close to reaching their ceilings and represent high-end change of scenery types.  For me, I see an easier path for Gray becoming a 4 or 5 WAR pitcher (getting out of Coors) than I do for Rodon.  The fact he’s not represented by Boras is simply icing on the cake.  If I could get that deal done without Bummer, that would be fantastic, but I do think the Rockies are taking on more risk in the deal and would need a sweetener to get it done.  Just my guess though

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Don’t disagree with your assessment in regards to Moncada, but I think if we add Machado then Yoan will be moved to the OF.  If you look at recent picks like Madrigal (polished college bat), they tend to move fast and oftentimes reach the majors in their first full season.  Right or wrong, I truly believe the Sox will take that into consideration this offseason and move Moncada off 2B.

As for Gray vs. Rodon, I thought I’d get eaten alive for that proposal, but for the exact opposite reason.  I’m not sure what metrics you’re looking at, but I don’t see much of an argument for Rodon having been better as a pro.  I personally think both have fantastic stuff but am willing to give the edge to Rodon given he’s a lefty.  Ultimately, I think both guys haven’t come close to reaching their ceilings and represent high-end change of scenery types.  For me, I see an easier path for Gray becoming a 4 or 5 WAR pitcher (getting out of Coors) than I do for Rodon.  The fact he’s not represented by Boras is simply icing on the cake.  If I could get that deal done without Bummer, that would be fantastic, but I do think the Rockies are taking on more risk in the deal and would need a sweetener to get it done.  Just my guess though

I think Rockies would do a Gray to Rodon swap in a heartbeat.  

[Balta1701]

Just so someone says it - in the past page I've seen starting rotations of Rodon/Lopez/Giolito/E Santana/Pomeranz and Corbin/Gray/Lopez/Giolito/Pomeranz. For people talking about $140 million rosters - my word those are pathetic on paper.  2 guys with ERAs about 4, injury issues, 1 guy with an ERA about 5, 2 guys with ERAs about 6, and one guy who missed almost the entire season and put up an ERA of 8. If those rotations actually turn out any good then you should extend Coop for life and triple his salary.

If you guys really believe in the rest of the roster you put together, which you might have good reason to - stop being scared and put some of your minor league talent up for sale on the trade market. The trade market for pitching is shaping up decently right now with the Indians and Mets both already shopping front line guys. 

[fathom]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Just so someone says it - in the past page I've seen starting rotations of Rodon/Lopez/Giolito/E Santana/Pomeranz and Corbin/Gray/Lopez/Giolito/Pomeranz. For people talking about $140 million rosters - my word those are pathetic on paper.  2 guys with ERAs about 4, injury issues, 1 guy with an ERA about 5, 2 guys with ERAs about 6, and one guy who missed almost the entire season and put up an ERA of 8. If those rotations actually turn out any good then you should extend Coop for life and triple his salary.

If you guys really believe in the rest of the roster you put together, which you might have good reason to - stop being scared and put some of your minor league talent up for sale on the trade market. The trade market for pitching is shaping up decently right now with the Indians and Mets both already shopping front line guys. 

yep if other organizations place high value on guys like Collins, Rutherford, Hansen and Dunning, now is the time to move some of them as they could easily become "non-prospects" after next season if they struggle and/or continue having injury issues.  I still am upset they didn't go harder after Yelich last year.

[fathom]

Also let me add that if you can use Madrigal as the center piece in a trade to get an "ace" with 3 or more years of control, then you absolutely should consider it.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

I like that plan, except trading Rodon and Bummer for Gray. I'm not opposed to trading for Gray, in fact I hope they do. But sending Rodon the other way in that scenario is dumb.

[Jose Abreu]

15 minutes ago, fathom said:

yep if other organizations place high value on guys like Collins, Rutherford, Hansen and Dunning, now is the time to move some of them as they could easily become "non-prospects" after next season if they struggle and/or continue having injury issues.  I still am upset they didn't go harder after Yelich last year.

Going after Yelich last year means we're without Eloy++ right now, *maybe* Robert instead if we gave up better complementary pieces. I know Lewis Brinson has been awful, but in terms of prospect value, he was arguably in/near the Eloy tier last offseason. If you would've been okay with that, then that's fine, but don't think we could've gotten him for much less

[Chicago White Sox]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Just so someone says it - in the past page I've seen starting rotations of Rodon/Lopez/Giolito/E Santana/Pomeranz and Corbin/Gray/Lopez/Giolito/Pomeranz. For people talking about $140 million rosters - my word those are pathetic on paper.  2 guys with ERAs about 4, injury issues, 1 guy with an ERA about 5, 2 guys with ERAs about 6, and one guy who missed almost the entire season and put up an ERA of 8. If those rotations actually turn out any good then you should extend Coop for life and triple his salary.

If you guys really believe in the rest of the roster you put together, which you might have good reason to - stop being scared and put some of your minor league talent up for sale on the trade market. The trade market for pitching is shaping up decently right now with the Indians and Mets both already shopping front line guys. 

Lol...I don’t even know why I waste my time with you.  Everything is so black & white and if it’s not Balta’s way then it’s obviously wrong.  In my particular case, I’m banking on young starters getting better which does happen from time to time and a guy with a proven track record bouncing back after an injury fillled season.  But I know they weren’t good last year so they can’t possibly be good going forward.

And no, I have no interest in trading my assets for a front line guy.  We have money to burn and can spend in the interim, but I’m keeping my prospects for another year to see how the first wave shakes out and who from the second wave will be ready to contribute in 2020.  If enough goes right, great we have a competitive team in 2019.  If not, we’re better prepared for 2020 and have a few one-year guys (Dozier, Pomeranz, & Allen) that we hopefully flipped.

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, fathom said:

yep if other organizations place high value on guys like Collins, Rutherford, Hansen and Dunning, now is the time to move some of them as they could easily become "non-prospects" after next season if they struggle and/or continue having injury issues.  I still am upset they didn't go harder after Yelich last year.

We weren’t getting Yelich for that tier of guys as it would have required at least one blue-chipper and that didn’t make a ton of sense at that point in time.  If rumors are true, it does sound like Hahn explored the opportunity.

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Going after Yelich last year means we're without Eloy++ right now, *maybe* Robert instead if we gave up better complementary pieces. I know Lewis Brinson has been awful, but in terms of prospect value, he was arguably in/near the Eloy tier last offseason. If you would've been okay with that, then that's fine, but don't think we could've gotten him for much less

I would have been fine if they gave up Robert for him as the significant piece.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol...I don’t even know why I waste my time with you.  Everything is so black & white and if it’s not Balta’s way then it’s obviously wrong.  In my particular case, I’m banking on young starters getting better which does happen from time to time and a guy with a proven track record bouncing back after an injury fillled season.  But I know they weren’t good last year so they can’t possibly be good going forward.

And no, I have no interest in trading my assets for a front line guy.  We have money to burn and can spend in the interim, but I’m keeping my prospects for another year to see how the first wave shakes out and who from the second wave will be ready to contribute in 2020.  If enough goes right, great we have a competitive team in 2019.  If not, we’re better prepared for 2020 and have a few one-year guys (Dozier, Pomeranz, & Allen) that we hopefully flipped.

But you're counting on ALL of them to have breakout or bounce back seasons. THAT is the problem. One of those 4 or 5 guys will probably actually break out or bounce back and be solid, but if 2 or 3 of them do? That's practically miraculous. If only 1 of them has a bounce back season, you're talking about a bottom 5 ERA in the AL and a below .500 team. You need so many breakouts and bounce backs that its unbelievable. That's why I keep saying you would credit the coaching because that would be a spectacular job. 

Get yourself a #1 starter, and be ready to drop Pomeranz or Giolito into the bullpen, and now you actually have a rotation that can hang with people.  

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol...I don’t even know why I waste my time with you.  Everything is so black & white and if it’s not Balta’s way then it’s obviously wrong.  In my particular case, I’m banking on young starters getting better which does happen from time to time and a guy with a proven track record bouncing back after an injury fillled season.  But I know they weren’t good last year so they can’t possibly be good going forward.

And no, I have no interest in trading my assets for a front line guy.  We have money to burn and can spend in the interim, but I’m keeping my prospects for another year to see how the first wave shakes out and who from the second wave will be ready to contribute in 2020.  If enough goes right, great we have a competitive team in 2019.  If not, we’re better prepared for 2020 and have a few one-year guys (Dozier, Pomeranz, & Allen) that we hopefully flipped.

Completely agree on all accounts.  Balta bounces around so much from day to day and hour to hour, and even within his own debates, that its almost not even worth engaging him.  

I also don't think a rotation on Rodon/Lopez/Gio/Santana/Pomeranz/Ross sounds TERRIBLE.  Obviously if Gio remains a pumpkin and Lopez and Rodon make zero progress, its not going to be a great rotation, but it has upside, it doesn't block future rotation pieces, and it doesn't require us to dip into the farm.

[fathom]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol...I don’t even know why I waste my time with you.  Everything is so black & white and if it’s not Balta’s way then it’s obviously wrong.  In my particular case, I’m banking on young starters getting better which does happen from time to time and a guy with a proven track record bouncing back after an injury fillled season.  But I know they weren’t good last year so they can’t possibly be good going forward.

And no, I have no interest in trading my assets for a front line guy.  We have money to burn and can spend in the interim, but I’m keeping my prospects for another year to see how the first wave shakes out and who from the second wave will be ready to contribute in 2020.  If enough goes right, great we have a competitive team in 2019.  If not, we’re better prepared for 2020 and have a few one-year guys (Dozier, Pomeranz, & Allen) that we hopefully flipped.

Here's the problem with everyone saying we have "money to burn".  So do other teams like the Phillies and Yankees, and they've been planning for this offseason for a long time.  

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But you're counting on ALL of them to have breakout or bounce back seasons. THAT is the problem. One of those 4 or 5 guys will probably actually break out or bounce back and be solid, but if 2 or 3 of them do? That's practically miraculous. If only 1 of them has a bounce back season, you're talking about a bottom 5 ERA in the AL and a below .500 team. You need so many breakouts and bounce backs that its unbelievable. That's why I keep saying you would credit the coaching because that would be a spectacular job. 

I’m not sure expecting Jon Gray to breakout into a legit #2 outside of Coors and Lopez to become a solid #3 starter is that much of a stretch.  Development isn’t linear and talented young guys can take massive leaps in short periods of time.  I simply believe in both of those guys, especially Lopez who I watched pitch a good 20+ times last year and saw the necessary adjustments. 

The one guy I don’t believe in is Giolito and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post respectable #5 starter numbers next year.  If not, I fully expect Cease to be ready for a rotation spot in the 2nd half.

And as I mentioned previously, my plan isn’t to go all-in on 2019.  I have no interest in trading for a TOR starter just yet.  But I do like the possibility of a 2020 rotation that features Corbin, Gray, Lopez, Cease, & Kopech with Giolito & Dunning potentially in the mix.  But again, I’m willing to believe some of our young guys will develop into quality pitchers even if doesn’t happen immediately in year one.

[Chicago White Sox]

15 minutes ago, fathom said:

Here's the problem with everyone saying we have "money to burn".  So do other teams like the Phillies and Yankees, and they've been planning for this offseason for a long time.  

Rosenthal just wrote an article speculating the Yankees might pass on Machado in hopes of landing Arenado next year.  I personally think they will be in the mix, but I don’t see them being ridiculously aggressive to land him.  I do think the Phillies are dangerous, but I don’t see them landing both Harper & Machado.  If there was ever an opportunity for us to land a whale, now is the time IMO.

[caulfield12]

If the Indians were to trade one of Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer, that suddenly opens up a weakness there. 

(They've already traded their best catching prospect in the Hand deal, and Gomes is on the block because he's one of the few bigger contracts, outside of one member of the starting rotation, that they can feasibly move without doing too much damage to their hopes in 2019.)

Are Clevinger and Bieber going to repeat? 

Of course, they also have Santana lurking.  He might actually end up an internal closer candidate, rather than them spending outrageously to fix their bullpen through FA.   They have a lot of ? marks, but they do seem to have a plan for the pen.

The Sox need to at least threaten the Indians this year...the faster the Twins and White Sox can convince the Indians' owner he can't afford to keep all those pieces together, the better.

Another low 70's or high 60's win team won't accomplish that.  At the very least, they should be in the upper 70's.

[fathom]

My weekly thought on what happens:

sign:  Grandal/Familia/Gio G/CarGo

trade for:  Seager and cash for Collins

Yolmer and Nate Jones for Domingo Santana