White Sox on verge of slipping into another first-round rut

[Jack Parkman]

https://www.soxmachine.com/2018/10/17/white-sox-on-verge-of-slipping-into-another-first-round-rut/

Margalus makes a really good point about the Sox not drafting well again. 

Even though I think rebuilding was the right thing to do, it just seems like this isn't going to work. They might get a few players, but it seems they are going to end up right back where they started in 2016 with a stars/scrubs roster. 

I need a beer. 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

https://www.soxmachine.com/2018/10/17/white-sox-on-verge-of-slipping-into-another-first-round-rut/

Margalus makes a really good point about the Sox not drafting well again. 

Even though I think rebuilding was the right thing to do, it just seems like this isn't going to work. They might get a few players, but it seems they are going to end up right back where they started in 2016 with a stars/scrubs roster. 

I need a beer. 

Good point. We always had a top of the line farm system 2011-2014 and that got us no where. Baseball America/Prospectus ranked the system #27 in 2011, #30 in 2012, #28 in 2013, #21 in 2014. And all that amazing talent got us no where in 2016. Ugh. Mired in mediocrity again!

 

/Green

[Jack Parkman]

17 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Good point. We always had a top of the line farm system 2011-2014 and that got us no where. Baseball America/Prospectus ranked the system #27 in 2011, #30 in 2012, #28 in 2013, #21 in 2014. And all that amazing talent got us no where in 2016. Ugh. Mired in mediocrity again!

 

/Green

They didn't, but I think they are likely to end up there again from sheer prospect attrition. Not every player is going to work out, and if they end up with enough bad players from this group. 

I'm not sure they have a top 10 farm anymore. Outside of Eloy, Cease and Kopech, who is out for 2019, I'm not sure they have another starter in the mix. I have to see more from Madrigal. Robert seems like a looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane guy. I think they're likely to end up maxing out in the 73-78 win range again by 2022 just out of sheer prospect attrition. 

If they wanted to trade anyone outside of Moncada, Kopech, Cease and Eloy this offseason, I couldn't complain. 

Moncada is one of those guys that if he's going to disappoint, he has to do it here. They should ride out his entire pre-arb years like Texas did with Profar. The upside if it all clicks is just way too high. 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

They didn't, but I think they are likely to end up there again from sheer prospect attrition. Not every player is going to work out, and if they end up with enough bad players from this group. 

I'm not sure they have a top 10 farm anymore. Outside of Eloy, Cease and Kopech, who is out for 2019, I'm not sure they have another starter in the mix. I have to see more from Madrigal. Robert seems like a looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane guy. I think they're likely to end up maxing out in the 73-78 win range again by 2022 just out of sheer prospect attrition. 

If they wanted to trade anyone outside of Moncada, Kopech, Cease and Eloy this offseason, I couldn't complain. 

Moncada is one of those guys that if he's going to disappoint, you ride out his entire pre-arb years like Texas did with Profar. The upside if it all clicks is just way too high. 

 

 

 

 

Basically what your post boils down to is....you hate our farm system and disagree with the industry consensus of it being a top ranked farm system. Hard to get any more pessimistic than that

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Basically what your post boils down to is....you hate our farm system and disagree with the industry consensus of it being a top ranked farm system. Hard to get any more pessimistic than that

Wait until the 2019 farm rankings come out. I'd be surprised if they were top 5, and I think they're going to end in the 8-10 range on national lists. Too many players took a significant step backward or lost development time to injuries. I'd probably rank them about middle of the pack, in the 12-15 range. 

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Wait until the 2019 farm rankings come out. I'd be surprised if they were top 5, and I think they're going to end in the 8-10 range on national lists. Too many players took a significant step backward or lost development time to injuries. I'd probably rank them about middle of the pack, in the 12-15 range. 

You just said you’re not sure we have a top 10 farm system anymore which is beyond laughable.  We will certainty be a top 5 ranked farm system by all major publications this offseason.  I like you Jack, but you seriously need to take a breather from White Sox baseball.

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You just said you’re not sure we have a top 10 farm system anymore which is beyond laughable.  We will certainty be a top 5 ranked farm system by all major publications this offseason.  I like you Jack, but you seriously need to take a breather from White Sox baseball.

Nah, I'm ok. Let's see if players stay healthy and improve next year. 

[Chicago White Sox]

23 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Nah, I'm ok. Let's see if players stay healthy and improve next year. 

Do you actually believe we don’t have a top 10 farm system?

[Jack Parkman]

17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Do you actually believe we don’t have a top 10 farm system?

Not sure tbh. If they do, I'd imagine it is now in the back end, in the around 9 or 10.

I don't see Collins as a prospect. 

I think Basabe, Adolfo and Gonzalez are prospects, but more in the borderline range.

I don't know what to make of Rutherford and Robert, as their lack of power is massively disappointing. I see both as similar to Avi Garcia when he was acquired. Both are supposed to have power, but they don't show it in games. 

Dunning and Hansen are complete wildcards based on health and lack of progression respectively. If Dunning blows out his elbow next season, he becomes a nonfactor. Same with Hansen if he doesn't stay healthy and find the strike zone. Both are entering their age 24 season and haven't been past AA. 

I just feel the Sox system is super top heavy with not much after that. Their top guys have to hit, otherwise they're screwed. 

You have Cease, Kopech and Eloy, with Moncada at the MLB level. Otherwise, I'm a huge skeptic on the rest of the system. 

I don't think much of Giolito and Lopez anymore. I guess keep running them out there.  There is minimal hope on both. 

Madrigal seems to be a relic of baseball times gone by.  Think Juan Pierre. 

 

Edited October 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[oldsox]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

They didn't, but I think they are likely to end up there again from sheer prospect attrition. Not every player is going to work out, and if they end up with enough bad players from this group. 

I'm not sure they have a top 10 farm anymore. Outside of Eloy, Cease and Kopech, who is out for 2019, I'm not sure they have another starter in the mix. I have to see more from Madrigal. Robert seems like a looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane guy. I think they're likely to end up maxing out in the 73-78 win range again by 2022 just out of sheer prospect attrition. 

If they wanted to trade anyone outside of Moncada, Kopech, Cease and Eloy this offseason, I couldn't complain. 

Moncada is one of those guys that if he's going to disappoint, he has to do it here. They should ride out his entire pre-arb years like Texas did with Profar. The upside if it all clicks is just way too high. 

Does anyone else even want him?  I never thought about that until this minute, but would any team give anything for him?  I doubt it.  So, you are correct.

 

 

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

40 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Not sure tbh. If they do, I'd imagine it is now in the back end, in the around 9 or 10.

I don't see Collins as a prospect. 

I think Basabe, Adolfo and Gonzalez are prospects, but more in the borderline range.

I don't know what to make of Rutherford and Robert, as their lack of power is massively disappointing. I see both as similar to Avi Garcia when he was acquired. Both are supposed to have power, but they don't show it in games. 

Dunning and Hansen are complete wildcards based on health and lack of progression respectively. If Dunning blows out his elbow next season, he becomes a nonfactor. Same with Hansen if he doesn't stay healthy and find the strike zone. Both are entering their age 24 season and haven't been past AA. 

I just feel the Sox system is super top heavy with not much after that. Their top guys have to hit, otherwise they're screwed. 

You have Cease, Kopech and Eloy, with Moncada at the MLB level. Otherwise, I'm a huge skeptic on the rest of the system. 

I don't think much of Giolito and Lopez anymore. I guess keep running them out there.  There is minimal hope on both. 

Madrigal seems to be a relic of baseball times gone by.  Think Juan Pierre. 

 

No offense, but you should be a skeptic of pretty much every other system if you’re hating on all our prospects other than Eloy, Kopech, & Cease.  Like your expectations are complete out of line.

[SoxAce]

4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

but you seriously need to take a breather from sports.

Fixed.

Edited October 28, 2018 by SoxAce

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No offense, but you should be a skeptic of pretty much every other system if you’re hating on all our prospects other than Eloy, Kopech, & Cease.  Like your expectations are complete out of line.

It's probably because I see the warts on my own team's more than others because I don't follow as closely

[Jack Parkman]

25 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Fixed.

Tbh guys I want to, but I can't stay away.

I was serious when I made that thread. 

Maybe I will take a break from posting. 

Edited October 28, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Southwest Sider]

Yeah, you're doing yourself no good by fudding your way into these opinions. If it happens the way you predict, it happens, and sure it sucks but it just means I will have a little more free time because I won't be watching as many Sox games. 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Just to be objective here, Fangraphs has nine White Sox prospects in their top 100, including four in their top 30.  The only other organization with nine is the Braves, with the Padres & Rays having eight & seven respectively.  We may not have the same depth as these other systems, but it’s clear as mud we fall into this elite group.

[Sleepy Harold]

Sox Machine loves pushing the "sky is falling" narrative...they seemingly complain about every little thing that occurs with the Sox.  I get being objective and critical because everything isn't always puppies and rainbows (and I appreciate that sentiment when discussing the team with anyone for that matter), but to me it seems that they're skeptical of every move the Sox make/don't make because it's the Sox that made it.  

[Flash]

I think Jack and everyone else has reason to be skeptical of the expectations of our young prospects as the raw material for future competitive teams. I would sort our OF prospects as follows... 'A' list - Jimenez; 'B' - Basabe, Gonzalez; 'C' - Rutherford, Adolfo and maybe Call; Incomplete - Robert, Walker. I'm optimistic we will find at least 3 top contributors among this bunch but I'm less enthusiastic than previously re: Robert.

IF is another story and I'm more sanguine about some of the kids in the lower minors, such as Sosa, Rivera and Bush than some of the names in Charlotte and Birmingham. I like Madrigal and probably would select him at #4 again in a 2018 draft do-over but there are the obvious concerns. I'm less of a fan of Collins and Sheets but between them, I'll take Sheets as future 1B (although he appears several years away). Not sure what we do with Collins. Burger may yet surprise.

We do have some interesting young pitching prospects and I wouldnt object to experimenting with some of our young RP'ers to see if any could transition to SP, especially Tyler Johnson. The way teams use pitchers nowadays is evolving and the traditional role of the SP might soon rely more on the ability to go 2-3 innings then bounce back on short rest.  

As for the young prospects already on the roster, I wouldn't hesitate to trade any of them. I believe for WS to reach the promised land, we need to be active in the trade market, even if we take on bad contracts in order to get key pieces i.e. Cardinals (Dexter Fowler/Nolan Gorman anyone?). I understand the support for Anderson and Moncada on this board but I just can't project either of them into being key contributors of a highly competitive team from what I can tell today. Not saying we shouldn't stay the course with them since expectations will remain low for 2019 but, if we could get valuable assets in return, I'd do it. Same for Giollito (I think Rizzo, Washington GM knew exactly what they had in Gio and was more than happy to include him in a package for Eaton, which at the time seemed head scrathingly rich). Lopez surprised and projects as a 4-5 rotation arm. We have to ride Rodon to start next season but if his performance is such to net us a huge prospect haul, I'd do it. We just don't have enough talent to run with the big-dogs, despite what we feel the development upside is for current prospects. Just one man's opinion.

Edited October 28, 2018 by Flash

[Jack Parkman]

46 minutes ago, Flash said:

I think Jack and everyone else has reason to be skeptical of the expectations of our young prospects as the raw material for future competitive teams. I would sort our OF prospects as follows... 'A' list - Jimenez; 'B' - Basabe, Gonzalez; 'C' - Rutherford, Adolfo and maybe Call; Incomplete - Robert, Walker. I'm optimistic we will find at least 3 top contributors among this bunch but I'm less enthusiastic than previously re: Robert.

IF is another story and I'm more sanguine about some of the kids in the lower minors, such as Sosa, Rivera and Bush than some of the names in Charlotte and Birmingham. I like Madrigal and probably would select him at #4 again in a 2018 draft do-over but there are the obvious concerns. I'm less of a fan of Collins and Sheets but between them, I'll take Sheets as future 1B (although he appears several years away). Not sure what we do with Collins. Burger may yet surprise.

We do have some interesting young pitching prospects and I wouldnt object to experimenting with some of our young RP'ers to see if any could transition to SP, especially Tyler Johnson. The way teams use pitchers nowadays is evolving and the traditional role of the SP might soon rely more on the ability to go 2-3 innings then bounce back on short rest.  

As for the young prospects already on the roster, I wouldn't hesitate to trade any of them. I believe for WS to reach the promised land, we need to be active in the trade market, even if we take on bad contracts in order to get key pieces (Dustin Fowler/Nolan Gorman anyone?). I understand the support for Anderson and Moncada on this board but I just can't project either of them into being key contributors of a highly competitive team from what I can tell today. Not saying we shouldn't stay the course with them since expectations will remain low for 2019 but, if we could get valuable assets in return, I'd do it. Same for Giollito (I think Rizzo, Washington GM knew exactly what they had in Gio and was more than happy to include him in a package for Eaton, which at the time seemed head scrathingly rich). Lopez surprised and projects as a 4-5 rotation arm. We have to ride Rodon to start next season but if his performance is such to net us a huge prospect haul, I'd do it. We just don't have enough talent to run with the big-dogs, despite what we feel the development upside is for current prospects. Just one man's opinion.

100% agreed. I wouldn't hesitate to trade anyone other than Eloy or Moncada to be honest. See earlier posts about my thoughts on Moncada.  Even though I like Kopech and Cease, they both have an injury history and it just seems pitchers get injured lately, and it seems the SP is becoming less and less important in modern day baseball. Every one of the Sox young players a season in or behind and 4-5 SP out of their group have to hit for them to get anywhere close to the big boys in the AL. They might even be able to make the playoffs as Cleveland ages, but at this point I'd say the Sox are far from favorites to be the next ALC juggernaut. A good draft or two, and the Tigers or Royals could pass the Sox quickly. 

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, Sleepy Harold said:

Sox Machine loves pushing the "sky is falling" narrative...they seemingly complain about every little thing that occurs with the Sox.  I get being objective and critical because everything isn't always puppies and rainbows (and I appreciate that sentiment when discussing the team with anyone for that matter), but to me it seems that they're skeptical of every move the Sox make/don't make because it's the Sox that made it.  

Do you blame them? Outside of one glorious season, every move they have made over the last 20 years has blown up in their faces. 

At this point, I want KW to GTFO. Hahn can go with him, for all I care. 

Edited October 28, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

13 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's probably because I see the warts on my own team's more than others because I don't follow as closely

Which makes it impossible to rank the Sox system if you really aren't as familiar or biased towards the other ones. That being said. It's very hard to be optimistic after a very bad year of injuries  and Margulus pretty much saying what I have been saying though I will say its a bit premature to judge but the early returns haven't been good.Throw the injuries in with many of our doubts about the current administrations history and still current or unknown abilities to make the right picks or develop them and it only exacerbates the concerns.

Right now i like guys that others are concerned about like Rutherford and Sheets because I like their approach to hitting. Power will come or it won't but I do see productive hitters either way. Power will determine how productive. Need to see more of just about everyone else and Robert is either very unlucky or made of glass. Maybe needs some yoga or something to limber up the muscles and get in the right frame of mind. I hate getting all new agey about it but I'm out of ideas to help the current administration develop some good players. (not that anyone's listening)

[Chicago White Sox]

If you ignore the highly atypical amount of injuries, most of our prospects had very positive 2018 seasons.  The biggest disappointments IMO were Hansen, Robert (partially injury related), & Sheets.  And with those last two guys it wasn’t all bad by any means.  Additionally, we had multiple guys with nice bounce back seasons and we even had a few guys come out of nowhere and become legit prospects like Rivera & Lambert.  I get the injuries really suck, but what are we expecting these to the be normal going forward?  Outside of a few cases, it just seems like a bad luck year to me.

Edited October 28, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Which makes it impossible to rank the Sox system if you really aren't as familiar or biased towards the other ones. That being said. It's very hard to be optimistic after a very bad year of injuries  and Margulus pretty much saying what I have been saying though I will say its a bit premature to judge but the early returns haven't been good.Throw the injuries in with many of our doubts about the current administrations history and still current or unknown abilities to make the right picks or develop them and it only exacerbates the concerns.

Right now i like guys that others are concerned about like Rutherford and Sheets because I like their approach to hitting. Power will come or it won't but I do see productive hitters either way. Power will determine how productive. Need to see more of just about everyone else and Robert is either very unlucky or made of glass. Maybe needs some yoga or something to limber up the muscles and get in the right frame of mind. I hate getting all new agey about it but I'm out of ideas to help the current administration develop some good players. (not that anyone's listening)

This is a really good point. I wish the Sox would look for more of those types of hitters. 

[turnin' two]

16 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's probably because I see the warts on my own team's more than others because I don't follow as closely

Yet you know there are 15 teams with better farm systems.  How do you know that I wonder.  

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Yet you know there are 15 teams with better farm systems.  How do you know that I wonder.  

I tend to think Sox players are worse than they actually are and other team's players are better than they actually are. It comes with the territory. Again, when you watch your team every day you see their warts in a different way than those you don't follow.