The Moncada / Madrigal Situation

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think we should expect it takes most guys many months to adapt to each level, and I think Madrigal needs time to adjust to the level he's currently at (and maybe, uniquely in his case, to have time to hit the weight room). 

Want a simple standard? One sentence? Guys get called up when (gasp) their numbers and performance show they are ready to be called up, and after that point we give them the time they need to work through things at each level until their numbers show they're ready for their next callup. It's a simple standard and yet we never follow it, we always let things from the big league calendar or their draft position or their prospect ranking be more important.

Moncada's numbers, especially everything after a hot April, strongly suggested he wasn't ready to be called up, but it was the trade deadline so apparently he had to be. Eloy and Kopech looked ready to be called up, but hey service time matters for one of those players. It's no mystery why one guy felt like he was being treated unfairly enough that he wrote an article called "I'm Ready" for the Players Tribune, because there's no consistency in how those guys were treated. 

You’re all over the place man and ignoring the last two seasons.  We really don’t rush guys anymore, it’s actually the complete opposite.  Moncada was an exception to some extent and even that one is debatable.  He had a wRC+ of 130 when he was called up, so it’s not like he wasn’t having success.  His K rate was bad though (28%) and probably should have been a red flag that he needed more development time.  Hahn claimed he needed to face major league pitching to make those final adjustments.  With the benefit of hindsight I think I can say they were wrong, but there have guys like Kris Bryant who had similar swing & miss problems in AAA only to address them in the majors.  The development path for elite talents is sometimes atypical.

Also, the other rush jobs you’re citing were pre Getz, so stop ripping the Sox for something they’ve addressed for the most part.  And holding back Eloy was certainly the right decision given how everything else shaked out last year.  I can’t blame them for calling up Kopech after more than a year in AAA and being absolutely dominant at the end.  There were simply no more excuses with him.  No idea what Eloy or Kopech have to with the Madrigal discussion we’re having though.  The Sox did a fantastic (if not conservative) job developing both of them.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You’re all over the place man and ignoring the last two seasons.  We really don’t rush guys anymore, it’s actually the complete opposite.  Moncada was an exception to some extent and even that one is debatable.  He had a wRC+ of 130 when he was called up, so it’s not like he wasn’t having success.  His K rate was bad though (28%) and probably should have been a red flag that he needed more development time.  Hahn claimed he needed to face major league pitching to make those final adjustments.  With the benefit of hindsight I think I can say they were wrong, but there have guys like Kris Bryant who had similar swing & miss problems in AAA only to address them in the majors.  The development path for elite talents is sometimes atypical.

Also, the other rush jobs you’re citing were pre Getz, so stop ripping the Sox for something they’ve addressed for the most part.  And holding back Eloy was certainly the right decision given how everything else shaked out last year.  I can’t blame them for calling up Kopech after more than a year in AAA and being absolutely dominant at the end.  There were simply no more excuses with him.  No idea what Eloy or Kopech have to with the Madrigal discussion we’re having though.  The Sox did a fantastic (if not conservative) job developing both of them.

Well there were no excuses with Eloy either but we made some. Moncada had a wRC+ of 130, but his numbers were way down in June and July, in part due to an injury. But, we convinced ourselves that the injury was the only reason his numbers were weak, and called him up anyway. His OPS in April was .885, it dropped every month, and in July it was .762, with his worst K-rate of the year. We ignored those numbers, convinced ourselves it was the injury, and hey we needed a 2b anyway so we called him up.

When you say we don't rush guys since 2017 but you can go find posts by me saying "I wouldn't call him up now he doesn't look ready to me" about Moncada when he was called up, and he was literally our top prospect, then we still have a recent history of it, and now people are arguing for the same thing with Madrigal in order to replace Moncada. Kopech was the only one I think got a reasonable treatment. He wasn't ready to start the year, and in July he started destroying everyone, and in August he was up. If Madrigal does that in April, then he's at AA in May. 

[Jack Parkman]

If Moncada has to move, I'd prefer it be 1) When Madrigal is close to MLB ready and 2) to at least try him at 3B before moving him to the OF. 

Again, the Sox have a lot of OF options, I'd like to keep them open for the Sox OF prospects. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Well first of all, he's not hitting a reasonable number of doubles and triples so far, he's hitting epically few doubles and triples and I include that in power. He spent this season pounding the ball into the ground, his groundball to flyball rate was genuinely bad and that's the biggest reason why he had so few doubles and triples, he had a worse groundball ratio than anyone in the big leagues. I cannot rule out that this was the fault of his wrist injury, but that's a legitimate worry, that number of ground balls would make him a genuinely weak hitter once he got to a level where the fielders are decent and where the pitchers will have the stuff to strike him out more.

Secondly, if he's only hitting a "decent number of doubles and triples" while being a really good fielder, then he's not going to be a good enough player for me to want to move Moncada unless I'm giving up on Moncada completely, and that'd be my answer to the question posed in this thread. 

Maybe he breaks out next year, maybe it was all the wrist, maybe he will light up AA this year, but right now he looks like a guy with a long way to go, he looks like a guy who if he gets called up we'll be wondering what is wrong with our scouting. If this were my franchise, I wouldn't care a lick about what his draft status was or why that requires me to move him fast, his numbers in A ball this year were such that I would be putting him in A ball to start next season and he would have to prove to me that he's ready to move up before he reaches AA. 

If they're way off in their projections of Moncada, Madrigal and L. Robert being 3+ fWAR players, then the rebuild is pretty much doomed before it even gets off the ground.

Other than Jimenez, there's nobody that we can feel pretty confidently can be automatically penciled in at EVEN 2+, and Jimenez's defense or being relegated to DH might pull his stats down even further, as well.

After those 3, who has the best shot at being a "breakout" player?   You've got a bunch of toolsy but potentially flawed outfield prospects in the High A/A ball, Burger (who knows?), Z. Collins, etc.

You could even legitimately argue that Jose Rondon has the best chance to break out (compared to the minor league prospects once you get past the Top 3 & Jimenez), and that's a pretty scary thought.

 

As far as Robert/Madrigal hitting for power or not, let's give them full/uninterrupted minor league seasons in 2019 before we jump to any conclusions.  Power is the last aspect to develop at the major league level, and Nick already has the contact ability...which, as time has demonstrated over and over again with Sox prospects, is much more important than power but 30-40% K's.

 

Edited October 29, 2018 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

As far as Robert/Madrigal hitting for power or not, let's give them full/uninterrupted minor league seasons in 2019 before we jump to any conclusions.  Power is the last aspect to develop at the major league level, and Nick already has the contact ability...which, as time has demonstrated over and over again with Sox prospects, is much more important than power but 30-40% K's.

 

Saying "We need to give Madrigal time to develop power and not rush him upwards until he does" is not the same thing as saying "Madrigal is a bust who will not develop power" and no matter how many times I say that I get replies saying that I'm jumping to conclusions.

[Chicago White Sox]

48 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Walker's numbers weren't good...but I'm sure not starting him off at a partial-season team. Should he go up to W-S based on his draft status?

Yeah probably.  Obviously I’d see how he looks in the spring, but I’d prefer he start the 2019 season in High A.  He’s going to be 23 next July, can’t be babying 2nd round college draft picks out of the gate.  I simply don’t put much stock into his drafted season numbers.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Saying "We need to give Madrigal time to develop power and not rush him upwards until he does" is not the same thing as saying "Madrigal is a bust who will not develop power" and no matter how many times I say that I get replies saying that I'm jumping to conclusions.

I just think that we can't make ANY conclusions from 2 debut months of professional baseball, especially with all the injuries Madrigal had to deal with to his wrist, time missed recovering (and he came back faster than he perhaps should have), hamstring tightness, the last two months of the NCAA season really took it out of those guys (although I'm sure someone will point out the MILB stats of OSU standouts Grenier, Larnach and Gretler.)

At any rate, if we did that, players like Jared Mitchell and Courtney Hawkins would be major league All-Stars.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah probably.  Obviously I’d see how he looks in the spring, but I’d prefer he start the 2019 season in High A.  He’s going to be 23 next July, can’t be babying 2nd round college draft picks out of the gate.  I simply don’t put much stock into his drafted season numbers.

If he's the "BEST/MOST ADVANCED NCAA HITTER" available in the draft, you can bet that he won't spend much time in Kanny to start the season, if any time at all.

The only cause would be the continued OF logjam brewing ahead of him.

Edited October 29, 2018 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

29 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well there were no excuses with Eloy either but we made some. Moncada had a wRC+ of 130, but his numbers were way down in June and July, in part due to an injury. But, we convinced ourselves that the injury was the only reason his numbers were weak, and called him up anyway. His OPS in April was .885, it dropped every month, and in July it was .762, with his worst K-rate of the year. We ignored those numbers, convinced ourselves it was the injury, and hey we needed a 2b anyway so we called him up.

When you say we don't rush guys since 2017 but you can go find posts by me saying "I wouldn't call him up now he doesn't look ready to me" about Moncada when he was called up, and he was literally our top prospect, then we still have a recent history of it, and now people are arguing for the same thing with Madrigal in order to replace Moncada. Kopech was the only one I think got a reasonable treatment. He wasn't ready to start the year, and in July he started destroying everyone, and in August he was up. If Madrigal does that in April, then he's at AA in May. 

No one is arguing to rush Madrigal to replace Moncada, that’s just a straight up lie.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No one is arguing to rush Madrigal to replace Moncada, that’s just a straight up lie.

Your opening post literally is an argument to move Moncada to CF to start getting ready for Madrigal's arrival.

[Chicago White Sox]

35 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Your opening post literally is an argument to move Moncada to CF to start getting ready for Madrigal's arrival.

I’m starting to get concerned about your reading comprehension skills.  You said people were arguing to rush Madrigal to replace Moncada, which I called you out on for being bullshit.  Now you’re going in a new direction, although at least this time it’s the right one.

[Balta1701]

8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m starting to get concerned about your reading comprehension skills.  You said people were arguing to rush Madrigal to replace Moncada, which I called you out on for being bullshit.  Now you’re going in a new direction, although at least this time it’s the right one.

Quote

If he’s not up by some point in the 2020 season then things have gone terribly wrong with him. 

Given his performance this year, that kind of statement has a solid potential of being "rushing him", unless literally all of his performance this year was dictated by injuries, and the White Sox will figure out how to deal with that next year to keep him healthier.

[Dick Allen]

If the White Sox rushed Moncada, what did the world champions do to him? 

I think we would all take their development results.

[southsider2k5]

At the absolute very earliest we need to be talking about Nick Madrigal in terms of either Sept 2020, or even mid 2021 more realistically.  I mean he get he was the highest floor player in this draft, along with having a couple of major league ready tools, but that doesn't mean he is major league ready at this point, or he will be within a year.  He would need an insane amount of stuff to go perfect for him to think about being in the majors with a year.  I don't see that as realistic, and definitely not realistic enough to start moving players around in anticipation of his imminent arrival.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

If the White Sox rushed Moncada, what did the world champions do to him? 

I think we would all take their development results.

Well, they took a tiny look at him, sent him back down to the minors, then traded him. 

Any more hot takes?

[Jose Abreu]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

At the absolute very earliest we need to be talking about Nick Madrigal in terms of either Sept 2020, or even mid 2021 more realistically.  I mean he get he was the highest floor player in this draft, along with having a couple of major league ready tools, but that doesn't mean he is major league ready at this point, or he will be within a year.  He would need an insane amount of stuff to go perfect for him to think about being in the majors with a year.  I don't see that as realistic, and definitely not realistic enough to start moving players around in anticipation of his imminent arrival.

Exactly. What happens when you preemptively move Moncada to 3rd in the spring, and then Madrigal either

a) never reaches the majors or

b) is never a good enough player to actually force someone off their position

 

I'd argue that those two outcomes are just as likely as Madrigal being so good that people need to be moving over for him years in advance of his arrival. 

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Exactly. What happens when you preemptively move Moncada to 3rd in the spring, and then Madrigal either

a) never reaches the majors or

b) is never a good enough player to actually force someone off their position

 

I'd argue that those two outcomes are just as likely as Madrigal being so good that people need to be moving over for him years in advance of his arrival. 

Plus I am just going to go out and say it, seeing Moncada's fielding slip during the time when his bat was at its worst during the July/August period of time, I would say there is a real possibility of a move to 3B affecting him at the plate.  I want to KNOW that we need to do this before we do this.  Let's have Madrigal get out of A ball before we start even thinking about moving players around.

[Dick Allen]

23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well, they took a tiny look at him, sent him back down to the minors, then traded him. 

Any more hot takes?

Rushed him, at a different position, 2 stupid things on this board, then traded him for Chris Sale. 

Please tell us some more bullshit. If you say it, it must be true.

when did they send him back to the minors?

Edited October 29, 2018 by Dick Allen

[ChiSox59]

Not to interrupt in dick measuring contest but....

I'm keeping Moncada at 2B at least for 2019.  CF is intriguing, and I wouldn't hate them at least letting him get some PT out there assuming the Sox don't go out and sign AJ Pollock, but Moncada is still my primary 2B heading into next season.  Madrigal at the very least is one full season away, so I am not messing with Moncada more than just perhaps adding some positional versatility (which I really wish the Sox did more often) in 2019. 

 

[Eminor3rd]

You don’t move guys around for prospects that are still in single A. 

That’s it, guys. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

Exactly. What happens when you preemptively move Moncada to 3rd in the spring, and then Madrigal either

a) never reaches the majors or

b) is never a good enough player to actually force someone off their position

 

I'd argue that those two outcomes are just as likely as Madrigal being so good that people need to be moving over for him years in advance of his arrival. 

One of the underlying assumptions in my OP was that 2B is not Moncada’s best position.  I truly believe he would be more valuable in the OF where his tools play up.  I’m guessing I’m in the minority on that viewpoint, but it’s not as simple as “make way for Madrigal”.

Also, I truly think people here are being way too conservative with Madrigal’s projected timeline.  High-end / polished college draft picks typically move fast.   Schwarber, Conforto, Swanson, Bregman, & Benintendi all recent examples of college picks who made the majors in their full professional season.  Madrigal was a similar ranked prospect to those guys & has tools that translate better to professional baseball.  If he doesn’t move fast, it should be a major red flag as he should not require a ton of development.

[Chicago White Sox]

20 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Not to interrupt in dick measuring contest but....

I'm keeping Moncada at 2B at least for 2019.  CF is intriguing, and I wouldn't hate them at least letting him get some PT out there assuming the Sox don't go out and sign AJ Pollock, but Moncada is still my primary 2B heading into next season.  Madrigal at the very least is one full season away, so I am not messing with Moncada more than just perhaps adding some positional versatility (which I really wish the Sox did more often) in 2019. 

 

I appreciate your response.  The goal of this thread was to spark conservation around how these two guys may fit in the long-term.  I get the easy answer is to say “too soon to worry about it” but all organizations (sports & other fields) think though these types of things.  I really think it’s an interesting exercise to talk through where these guys might fit if both end up making it.  

And while thinking through this myself, the question came up whether Moncada is potentially better suited for CF than 2B.  To me, that’s the most interesting angle to explore here.  Ignore Madrigal for a second and all our minor league OF depth.  Based on tools alone, what position should Moncada be playing?  To me the answer is clearly CF.  I feel like the main reason we’re sticking with him at 2B is because of organizational depth and it being the position he’s most comfortable at.  And that’s fine if we were competing, but given we’re in the middle of a rebuild, why not put him a spot that could optimize his value?  By all means, people can argue that he’s better suited for 2B, but that’s not really happening in this thread.  People are ignoring the proposition because they think it’s strictly tied to Madrigal.  Glad you at least acknowledged that part of my post, because I think the idea is fascinating on its own merits.

[Eminor3rd]

I was strongly on the “Moncada to CF” train when we got him. 

But at this point, I’d rather him just focus on hitting. If necessity brings it up a couple years down the line, that’s ok. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Eminor3rd said:

I was strongly on the “Moncada to CF” train when we got him. 

But at this point, I’d rather him just focus on hitting. If necessity brings it up a couple years down the line, that’s ok. 

See, this is a great counterpoint.  I agree there is a real element of risk by adding additional change into the mix.  I’d still probably be willing to take that gamble, but I can today understand why others would rather keep him focused on hitting.

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I was strongly on the “Moncada to CF” train when we got him. 

But at this point, I’d rather him just focus on hitting. If necessity brings it up a couple years down the line, that’s ok. 

I mentioned it in my post, but seeing him take his ABs into the field during his big slump this year is a BIG red flag to me about how well he might be able to handle this switch.