Rebuild

[fathom]

46 minutes ago, Tony said:

I'm on board with the plan, but have almost zero interest in the product right now. Just have no passion for the Sox right now. That will change in April, but will also probably be short lived. Just not excited about much as it stands in November of 2018. Hope it changes. 

The Kopech injury really was a gigantic kick in the balls

[caulfield12]

We still don’t have enough pitching with Dunning/Hansen and Cease one major injury away from a bullpen career.

We haven’t dipped into the Asian market or improved at all in the Dominican (looks at Paddy).

Tatis, Jr. fiasco.

Either terrible luck with Rodon/Fulmer/Adams/Beck/Burdi or just not as good as other organizations at pitching talent assessment.  Jury still out.  Huge questions about the first two guys in Sentence #1.

Didn’t bring in a huge haul along with Robert, like MANY teams have done in their one year overshoots.

Players that we haven’t seen much out of like Junior Guerra, Jose Martinez and Tyler Flowers have gone on to perform well with other teams (albeit that happens with every franchise).   That said, even if you undid the Frazier and Samardzija trades, we’d still basically be in the same middling position talent-wise.

Not much success in Rule 5.  Jury still out on Covey, but mostly Adrian Nietos here.

Collection of relievers has potential, but guys also have a lot to prove...repeating success, or simply establishing themselves.

While Rutherford, Adolfo, Gonzalez, Robert and Basabe all have their plus points, none of them are without flaws...in other words, you have to squint really hard to see a 3+ fWAR big leaguer right now.

Burger, Sheets, Collins, Walker, Robert and Madrigal all have major warning signs on their hit tools so far. (Obviously, it’s still early to make any determinations, but this year will be huge in determining if this will all work out or blow up in their faces.)

Abreu and Avi slid backwards, along with Davidson/Delmonico/Yolmer.

Kopech/Giolito/Moncada fell off cliffs of varying expectation heights.  Leaving the majority of hopes resting on Jimenez/Cease to be breakout stars...

 

All those things being said, the bigger question is pulling the trigger on the right free agents, and that has been the single biggest weakness in Hahn’s resume.  Sure, sure, sure...he’s never had unlimited resources to work with, but does he really have that right now?

Edited November 2, 2018 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

45 minutes ago, fathom said:

The Kopech injury really was a gigantic kick in the balls

It was, but on the other hand, if this rebuild was totally reliant on Kopech being an ace, that,s pretty crazy.

[greg775]

I am against the rebuild because tanking annoys and frustrates me. I feel like you should try to win every game/every year and if your team happens to be horsecrap, you'll still get a high enough pick. This losing on purpose bothers me greatly.

That said ... I do follow the rebuild and I am not stupid, thus I (personally, don't suspend me for my opinions please) feel that from all I've read, we plan on stinking again next season rather than beefing up the team that figures to have 3 stars soon in Eloy, Timmy and Moncada. 

So since we are tabled to stink again in 2019 I fully expect NO ACTIVITY this winter. That means a low, low payroll again in which Jerry and his partners make mega dollars. We have a loyal fanbase of about 20,000 fans a game who will make sure to put $$$s in the owners' wallets to go with the TV money, concessions, parking, etc.

Again on the rebuild ... I like Moncada, Eloy and Timmy. I like Palka and Davidson more than you guys do. I would like us to get through next season (in last place again) and hopefully the No. 1 draft picks of 2019 and 2020 coupled with Cease, Kopech, other pitchers, Robert, etc., will be good enough starting in 2021 to bring us pennants. I don't expect us to sign ANY great free agents this winter (one inning eating starter to replace Shields, if not bring back Shields for 5-8 mill for one year).

The rebuild is annoying cause I want to win, win win!! But if we can't win til 2020 or 21 so be it. I do expect us to sign some impact free agents when enough young guys are ready to rake in the big leagues. However, I would not be shocked if the rebuild does not start paying dividends til 2021. YIKES!

[ScootsMcGoots]

On 11/2/2018 at 6:45 PM, caulfield12 said:

We still don’t have enough pitching with Dunning/Hansen and Cease one major injury away from a bullpen career.

We haven’t dipped into the Asian market or improved at all in the Dominican (looks at Paddy).

Tatis, Jr. fiasco.

Either terrible luck with Rodon/Fulmer/Adams/Beck/Burdi or just not as good as other organizations at pitching talent assessment.  Jury still out.  Huge questions about the first two guys in Sentence #1.

Didn’t bring in a huge haul along with Robert, like MANY teams have done in their one year overshoots.

Players that we haven’t seen much out of like Junior Guerra, Jose Martinez and Tyler Flowers have gone on to perform well with other teams (albeit that happens with every franchise).   That said, even if you undid the Frazier and Samardzija trades, we’d still basically be in the same middling position talent-wise.

Not much success in Rule 5.  Jury still out on Covey, but mostly Adrian Nietos here.

Collection of relievers has potential, but guys also have a lot to prove...repeating success, or simply establishing themselves.

While Rutherford, Adolfo, Gonzalez, Robert and Basabe all have their plus points, none of them are without flaws...in other words, you have to squint really hard to see a 3+ fWAR big leaguer right now.

Burger, Sheets, Collins, Walker, Robert and Madrigal all have major warning signs on their hit tools so far. (Obviously, it’s still early to make any determinations, but this year will be huge in determining if this will all work out or blow up in their faces.)

Abreu and Avi slid backwards, along with Davidson/Delmonico/Yolmer.

Kopech/Giolito/Moncada fell off cliffs of varying expectation heights.  Leaving the majority of hopes resting on Jimenez/Cease to be breakout stars...

 

All those things being said, the bigger question is pulling the trigger on the right free agents, and that has been the single biggest weakness in Hahn’s resume.  Sure, sure, sure...he’s never had unlimited resources to work with, but does he really have that right now?

No players are without their flaws. 

[Jack Parkman]

On 11/2/2018 at 4:59 PM, fathom said:

The Kopech injury really was a gigantic kick in the balls

No shit. That combined with the Bears blowing a 20 point lead vs. GB threw me off the rails for a while. Both happening within 48 hours was a kick in the balls and then as soon as you could stand up you got kicked in the twins again.  

Edited November 3, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Eminor3rd]

On 11/3/2018 at 1:09 AM, greg775 said:

I am against the rebuild because tanking annoys and frustrates me. I feel like you should try to win every game/every year and if your team happens to be horsecrap, you'll still get a high enough pick. This losing on purpose bothers me greatly.

That said ... I do follow the rebuild and I am not stupid, thus I (personally, don't suspend me for my opinions please) feel that from all I've read, we plan on stinking again next season rather than beefing up the team that figures to have 3 stars soon in Eloy, Timmy and Moncada. 

So since we are tabled to stink again in 2019 I fully expect NO ACTIVITY this winter. That means a low, low payroll again in which Jerry and his partners make mega dollars. We have a loyal fanbase of about 20,000 fans a game who will make sure to put $$$s in the owners' wallets to go with the TV money, concessions, parking, etc.

Again on the rebuild ... I like Moncada, Eloy and Timmy. I like Palka and Davidson more than you guys do. I would like us to get through next season (in last place again) and hopefully the No. 1 draft picks of 2019 and 2020 coupled with Cease, Kopech, other pitchers, Robert, etc., will be good enough starting in 2021 to bring us pennants. I don't expect us to sign ANY great free agents this winter (one inning eating starter to replace Shields, if not bring back Shields for 5-8 mill for one year).

The rebuild is annoying cause I want to win, win win!! But if we can't win til 2020 or 21 so be it. I do expect us to sign some impact free agents when enough young guys are ready to rake in the big leagues. However, I would not be shocked if the rebuild does not start paying dividends til 2021. YIKES!

The greg-aroo’s most logical, reasonable post?

[Eminor3rd]

5 minutes ago, Tony said:

It’s fair, except all the evidence we have to go off of (albeit a small sample size) is that the Sox will be active this offseason, and may spend some serious cash. Doesn’t mean they’ll be good in 2019, but they will attempt to add foundation pieces into the fold if available. 

I'm not saying I agree with it, just that it acknowledges reality and is consistent. He explains that he disagrees with consensus. That's a lot of context for a greg post.

[pcq]

There was little sign of progress at the MLB level in 2018. Maybe 2019 will bring some more. Agonizing over the disappointments gets really tedious. 

[Flash]

No more tanking. Now its time to begin shaping the roster of the future. Lots of positional questions to answer. Time to begin determining what the ultimate 'steady state' roster/lineup needs to look like and test our current assets against the vision of the future. For instance, is Moncada our future 2nd baseman (or 3rd or CF)? Determining Moncada's future position will help define positional priorities going forward. 

[Dick Allen]

On 11/4/2018 at 10:24 AM, Flash said:

No more tanking. Now its time to begin shaping the roster of the future. Lots of positional questions to answer. Time to begin determining what the ultimate 'steady state' roster/lineup needs to look like and test our current assets against the vision of the future. For instance, is Moncada our future 2nd baseman (or 3rd or CF)? Determining Moncada's future position will help define positional priorities going forward. 

Reading Hahn's comments, they aren't going to sign a 2B, so IMO, the question is Machado, and it makes it pretty clear in their  best case scenerio, Moncada is not playing 2B. 

They would love to add Machado, have him play 3B. And they want Madrigal to be an every day 2B. So IMO, the question is whether Moncada moves to 3B or the OF. If they signed Harper, 3B.

Edited November 5, 2018 by Dick Allen

[ChiSox1917]

REqlly hard to judge at this point.  Sox prospects got hit with the injury bug last year.  Thats why it was important to stockpile them.  Some will work out, some wont.  Some will have blips where they perform terribly, and then figure it all out and bounce back.  

 

Sox need maybe a quarter to a third of them to actually hit.  Then surround them with smart free agent signings.  

[Greg Hibbard]

On 11/2/2018 at 12:08 PM, Dick Allen said:

Moncada struggled which in and of itself probably isn’t shocking, but shouldn’t we be at a point where a guy either ranked 1 or 2 should be showing a bit more consistency? 

Tim Anderson improved in the field and walked several times in April, then no better, maybe even worse offensively than he has ever been. Shouldn’t the lack of progress be concerning?

These are the two things I think the board is greatly split on.

1) Anderson was a 2.5 WAR player, basically in the top 150 of all players. He had an OPS 10 points higher than 2017 despite a BABIP 39 points lower. Given his BABIP, what did you exactly expect him to do, offensively?

2) Moncada showed improvement on strikeouts after August 16th. He only struck out 45 of his last 161 plate appearances (27.9%) as opposed to the 172 times in his previous 489 plate appearances (35.1%). His OPS in September was .767. I still think he's a year behind many people on development, if not more, due to the time he was compelled to sit out to get over here. He essentially didn't play pro ball for the better part of 18 months at a crucial time. Over the next 1000 PAs I expect a significant improvement from him. I still think he'll be a .790 OPS player with 25 homers, 30 2B, 70 BB, and 150 Ks. 
 

If Moncada and Anderson continue to improve, and if Kopech comes back healthy and Eloy performs as expected - and if Madrigal and Robert have significant ML value - the rebuild can only be termed a success. 2019 is the crucial year that will determine it.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Greg Hibbard

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

These are the two things I think the board is greatly split on.

1) Anderson was a 2.5 WAR player, basically in the top 150 of all players. He had an OPS 10 points higher than 2017 despite a BABIP 39 points lower. Given his BABIP, what did you exactly expect him to do, offensively?

2) Moncada showed improvement on strikeouts after August 16th. He only struck out 45 of his last 161 plate appearances (27.9%) as opposed to the 172 times in his previous 489 plate appearances (35.1%). His OPS in September was .767. I still think he's a year behind many people on development, if not more, due to the time he was compelled to sit out to get over here. He essentially didn't play pro ball for the better part of 18 months at a crucial time. Over the next 1000 PAs I expect a significant improvement from him. I still think he'll be a .790 OPS player with 25 homers, 30 2B, 70 BB, and 150 Ks. 
 

If Moncada and Anderson continue to improve, and if Kopech comes back healthy and Eloy performs as expected - and if Madrigal and Robert have significant ML value - the rebuild can only be termed a success. 2019 is the crucial year that will determine it.

And both of their defensive play took big leaps forward this year. Anderson was really good almost all year long, and Yoan improved as his bat improved.

[NorthSideSox72]

On 11/2/2018 at 12:49 PM, southsider2k5 said:

We just did it with Dylan Covey, didn't we?

 

On 11/2/2018 at 1:05 PM, Eminor3rd said:

Did we? If so, that’s a good sign. I was under the impression that we helped go add horizontal movement to the fastball, but I knew basically nothing about him before he was called up to us, let alone before we acquired him, so I could be wrong. 

Jimmy Lambert went from 90-91 to 93-95, T96 last year. Mechanical changes and adding strength.

Tyler Johnson bumped up a couple ticks with some delivery changes, now he's brushing 99 here and there.

Zach Thompson had lost some velo, then regained it this year (a number of other pitchers fall in this category).

Ian Hamilton was topping 95 maybe 96 in college and up through A-ball, he can hit 98/99 now and sits mid-to-upper 90s.

Aaron Bummer was throwing HIGH EIGHTIES for most of college, then low 90's as a senior, then after TJS in Sox system jumped to mid-upper 90s.

Jace Fry is throwing harder now than he did as a starter, though that may be a role change more than anything.

Blake Battenfield added 2-3 ticks last year, though admittedly he's still not really much of a prospect.

I'm sure there are others but those are a few examples I know of for prospects adding velo with the Sox.

 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

 

Jimmy Lambert went from 90-91 to 93-95, T96 last year. Mechanical changes and adding strength.

Tyler Johnson bumped up a couple ticks with some delivery changes, now he's brushing 99 here and there.

Zach Thompson had lost some velo, then regained it this year (a number of other pitchers fall in this category).

Ian Hamilton was topping 95 maybe 96 in college and up through A-ball, he can hit 98/99 now and sits mid-to-upper 90s.

Aaron Bummer was throwing HIGH EIGHTIES for most of college, then low 90's as a senior, then after TJS in Sox system jumped to mid-upper 90s.

Jace Fry is throwing harder now than he did as a starter, though that may be a role change more than anything.

Blake Battenfield added 2-3 ticks last year, though admittedly he's still not really much of a prospect.

I'm sure there are others but those are a few examples I know of for prospects adding velo with the Sox.

 

?

[Eminor3rd]

8 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

 

Jimmy Lambert went from 90-91 to 93-95, T96 last year. Mechanical changes and adding strength.

Tyler Johnson bumped up a couple ticks with some delivery changes, now he's brushing 99 here and there.

Zach Thompson had lost some velo, then regained it this year (a number of other pitchers fall in this category).

Ian Hamilton was topping 95 maybe 96 in college and up through A-ball, he can hit 98/99 now and sits mid-to-upper 90s.

Aaron Bummer was throwing HIGH EIGHTIES for most of college, then low 90's as a senior, then after TJS in Sox system jumped to mid-upper 90s.

Jace Fry is throwing harder now than he did as a starter, though that may be a role change more than anything.

Blake Battenfield added 2-3 ticks last year, though admittedly he's still not really much of a prospect.

I'm sure there are others but those are a few examples I know of for prospects adding velo with the Sox.

 

Well, ok, I guess I should qualify more. These are all guys who have gained velocity moving into a relief role, right? I’m talking about adding velo to a starter via Driveline-style strength trading and kinetic chain work, like the aforementioned Beuhler or nearly every Yankees prospect. 

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

 

Jimmy Lambert went from 90-91 to 93-95, T96 last year. Mechanical changes and adding strength.

Tyler Johnson bumped up a couple ticks with some delivery changes, now he's brushing 99 here and there.

Zach Thompson had lost some velo, then regained it this year (a number of other pitchers fall in this category).

Ian Hamilton was topping 95 maybe 96 in college and up through A-ball, he can hit 98/99 now and sits mid-to-upper 90s.

Aaron Bummer was throwing HIGH EIGHTIES for most of college, then low 90's as a senior, then after TJS in Sox system jumped to mid-upper 90s.

Jace Fry is throwing harder now than he did as a starter, though that may be a role change more than anything.

Blake Battenfield added 2-3 ticks last year, though admittedly he's still not really much of a prospect.

I'm sure there are others but those are a few examples I know of for prospects adding velo with the Sox.

 

Hopefully they can look at some video and make a minor tweak with Giolito that gets that final 2-3 mph that he's missing from his days as a top prospect back.  I'm encouraged they got him back to mid 90s for a period of time, keep working on him. He's a project, but he has to start showing signs or they have to punt on him. 

Edited November 6, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[NorthSideSox72]

1 minute ago, Eminor3rd said:

Well, ok, I guess I should qualify more. These are all guys who have gained velocity moving into a relief role, right? I’m talking about adding velo to a starter via Driveline-style strength trading and kinetic chain work, like the aforementioned Beuhler or nearly every Yankees prospect. 

The only one who gained velo by moving to relief is Fry. The rest are still in the same roles.

ETA: Also Thompson, sort of.

[Eminor3rd]

12 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

The only one who gained velo by moving to relief is Fry. The rest are still in the same roles.

ETA: Also Thompson, sort of.

Point taken. Still would like to see them do it with starters. I’m sure it’s a combination of identifying the right talent AND developing it, but some teams have done it consistently enough that I believe it’s more than luck, even if it’s very difficult. 

[FT35]

1 hour ago, Greg Hibbard said:

These are the two things I think the board is greatly split on.

1) Anderson was a 2.5 WAR player, basically in the top 150 of all players. He had an OPS 10 points higher than 2017 despite a BABIP 39 points lower. Given his BABIP, what did you exactly expect him to do, offensively?

2) Moncada showed improvement on strikeouts after August 16th. He only struck out 45 of his last 161 plate appearances (27.9%) as opposed to the 172 times in his previous 489 plate appearances (35.1%). His OPS in September was .767. I still think he's a year behind many people on development, if not more, due to the time he was compelled to sit out to get over here. He essentially didn't play pro ball for the better part of 18 months at a crucial time. Over the next 1000 PAs I expect a significant improvement from him. I still think he'll be a .790 OPS player with 25 homers, 30 2B, 70 BB, and 150 Ks. 
 

If Moncada and Anderson continue to improve, and if Kopech comes back healthy and Eloy performs as expected - and if Madrigal and Robert have significant ML value - the rebuild can only be termed a success. 2019 is the crucial year that will determine it.

Yeah, it seems strange that the more toolsy the player is, the longer it takes for him to achieve his full potential.  It's not like with a slugger, who needs to work on cutting down k's and hitting more HRs, the 5-tool players need to work on everything and develop more parts of their game.  It's like Moncada's talent has him stuck in a rut...trying to become the best contact hitter, power hitter, base stealer AND line drive hitter on the team EACH NIGHT.  My advice to him would be to not try to showcase and be the 5-tool player he is each and every night, but to learn how to recognize and use each of his 5 tools in the most relevant situations to beat the opponent.  Some nights he might beat you with his speed, others he might drive in 6, others a clutch hit...just not try to be everything at once--that result is usually an 0-4 with 2 k's.  I think if he can do that, you can see him start to round into form.

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

Point taken. Still would like to see them do it with starters. I’m sure it’s a combination of identifying the right talent AND developing it, but some teams have done it consistently enough that I believe it’s more than luck, even if it’s very difficult. 

Lambert is a starter that went from org filler to legit prospect due in part to the uptick in his velo.

[oldsox]

3 hours ago, FT35 said:

Yeah, it seems strange that the more toolsy the player is, the longer it takes for him to achieve his full potential.  It's not like with a slugger, who needs to work on cutting down k's and hitting more HRs, the 5-tool players need to work on everything and develop more parts of their game.  It's like Moncada's talent has him stuck in a rut...trying to become the best contact hitter, power hitter, base stealer AND line drive hitter on the team EACH NIGHT.  My advice to him would be to not try to showcase and be the 5-tool player he is each and every night, but to learn how to recognize and use each of his 5 tools in the most relevant situations to beat the opponent.  Some nights he might beat you with his speed, others he might drive in 6, others a clutch hit...just not try to be everything at once--that result is usually an 0-4 with 2 k's.  I think if he can do that, you can see him start to round into form.

Moncada stole 12 bags this year.

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Hopefully they can look at some video and make a minor tweak with Giolito that gets that final 2-3 mph that he's missing from his days as a top prospect back.  I'm encouraged they got him back to mid 90s for a period of time, keep working on him. He's a project, but he has to start showing signs or they have to punt on him. 

He only threw 97~98 for a few starts and that Futures Game....look at average velocities from 2~3 years ago, you will see him closer to 94. 95, touching 96.

[Two-Gun Pete]

As we all dream on the distant hopes of this organization landing either Machado or Harper, I think its perfectly cogent to reflect upon how the rebuild is going.

 

For my part, I think the rebuild has stalled tremendously. I believe the key players in the front office have made some big blunders, particularly in the "development-of-prospects" area. Looking at the top youngsters, I doubt many of us are happy with the way Moncada/Giolito have performed hereto fore. Nor can we be happy about the cavalcade of injuries to key prospects. [Yeah, Moncada had a miraculous Sept/Oct to get to a respectable fWAR for the year. But this was fueled by an unsustainable .452 BaBIP. I doubt that he can continue forward at this clip; YMMV.]

Fegan reporting that Hahn wants to start Robert in Double-A next year [after a mediocre and injury-riddled 2018 campaign] suggests to me that this front office is simply unwilling or unable to learn from their previous mistakes with Moncada. Do they promote prospects based on "talent alone," or do they OBJECTIVELY promote based on performance? If not, WHY not?

 

Watching Abreu have to seek outside help to fix his swing, and watching Collins have to revert to his old swing makes me wonder about Steverson. I also have this haunting thought that none of the other coaches/Manager in Chicago are MLB caliber, save for Cooper. At the same time, I look at Cooper, and wonder if it hasn't been well overdue for a change at his spot, given that I can't remember the last time he "fixed" a pitcher.

All told, if these are the "best coaches" in the organization, how much more incompetent are the coaches at lower-level assignments? And even if this org has much more talent than in recent seasons, how will these youngsters be properly tutored in their craft and nurtured into big leaguers?

 

The recent draft picks [Burger/Sheets in particular] make me wonder how many of these high draft picks will actually pan out. I also wonder if Hostetler is actually good at his job, or if he simply looks better than Laumann and his craptacular track record. 

 

On balance, while we can credit KW/RH for the "accumulation phase" of the rebuild, and while I think its without a doubt that this rebuild NEEDS a top FA signing or two, we're also into the hard part of the rebuild, which is the "development phase." I just don't know that this org has the right people making the right decisions at the moment. I hope I'm wrong, and that miracles happen, but I have my doubts after years of failure at the executive levels of this org. We'll see.

Edited November 11, 2018 by Two-Gun Pete