Rosenthal: “rival exec believe white Sox will spend big”

[steveno89]

Just now, jenksycat said:

You think they would push the luxury tax threshold?  If we're an actual contender maybe we go up to 150ish, but I see 0% chance we ever come close to hitting the tax.

I was originally all in on Machado, but after watching him in the playoffs he really seems like a "sign 300m deal and immediately get fat" kinda guy to me.

Josh Donaldson could be a decent buy low option on a 2/40 type of deal? We are still easily a year away from really contending, but he could help on a much cheaper deal. 

[ChiSox59]

50 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

If we are going to go out and spend $, then get 2 guys...I don’t really want to watch Machado turn the Sox into an 80 win team with not enough talent around him. 

 

Id rather have Corbin and Pollack 

1) You're high.

2) Whoever signs Corbin is going to regret it.

3) This coming from someone who has adamantly paraded the idea of signing Pollock.    

[steveno89]

1 minute ago, Jose Abreu said:

It's a correct assumption... payroll currently projects at 50-60 mil, so adding both in this hypothetical leads to 130 or so. Obviously arbitration salaries will increase over time, but probably not to the extent that we'll have no long term flexibility. 

Putting that much payroll into two players just is not a smart decision. Remember we still need starting pitching and bullpen help, and not everything can be home grown. Giving Harper/Machado such massive deals would handcuff our ability to spend elsewhere for years. 

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

Putting that much payroll into two players just is not a smart decision. Remember we still need starting pitching and bullpen help, and not everything can be home grown. Giving Harper/Machado such massive deals would handcuff our ability to spend elsewhere for years. 

That's fair, I can see the argument for that and it would limit us to an extent. I just disagree with your original idea that we'd have no long-term flexibility if we signed both. It cannot be stressed enough how few long-term commitments the team has right now. I'm sure this is all moot anyway as the chances of signing both are less than 1%. 

[hi8is]

Of course, this is just speculation based on our payroll... that's all.

( for the newer members of the board ) 

?

[TheFutureIsNear]

10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

1) You're high.

2) Whoever signs Corbin is going to regret it.

3) This coming from someone who has adamantly paraded the idea of signing Pollock.    

Corbin was just an example...what’s your big problem with him? 

 

And I just don’t want to see the team sign 1 guy and think problems are solved. I know there’s a lot of young talent coming, but we all know that can go poorly. I just think this franchise is so far away signing 1 great player isn’t going to do anything. If course I n the end it’s not my $ so I won’t be 1 but upset it a Star is brought in. I just would go about trying to get better in a different way.

Edited November 5, 2018 by TheFutureIsNear

[Dam8610]

2 hours ago, turnin' two said:

That would definitely be a sticking point with front loading it.  You would maybe have to structure the deal something like 40-40-40-15-15 (so 5/150).  After year 5 give the opt out.  Then start to front load a bit more after that 35-35-35--30-22.5-22.5 (another 6/180 for a total of 11-330).  That gives the player the front loading up front on the first 5 and second 5 of the deal, but gives the team some value in years 4/5 and 10/11.  The numbers in years 4/5 have to be a bit lower to protect the team from being completely taken by the out clause.  Would a guy like Harper or Machado opt in to that 2nd contract?  Tough to say at this point, but a 6 year 180 deal would still be nothing to sneeze at.  The team could also work in mutual options with escalators.  So if the player opts out, the team can opt in boosting each year by 5 mil or some such.  Without an opt out, I would be willing to keep that higher rate for a longer time.  Something like 40-40-40-40-35-35-30-20-20-15-15 (The same 11/330.  Then the payments toward the back of the contract would decline along with the likely contributions of the player).  I haven't done the math, but I would guess either of these structures would offer more value in pocket than a straight 30/year.

Contract 2 absolutely would. Using a 10% required return rate:

PV of contract 2 = $212.53 million

PV of $30/year contract = $194.85 million.

The first contract you proposed is questionable due to the lowest payouts being in years 4 and 5. That may throw off the value enough that the annuity is greater value.

[ChiSox59]

Just now, TheFutureIsNear said:

Corbin was just an example...what’s your big problem with him? 

 

And I just don’t want to see the team sign 1 guy and think problems are solved. I know there’s a lot of young talent coming, but we all know that can go poorly. I just think this franchise is so far away signing 1 great player isn’t going to do anything. 

A somewhat injury prone soon to be 30 year old that has had 2 good seasons out of 6, 1 of which was his contract year, that is expected to sign a 5-6 year deal approaching $25M AAV.  What could possibly go wrong?  

[bmags]

11 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

That's fair, I can see the argument for that and it would limit us to an extent. I just disagree with your original idea that we'd have no long-term flexibility if we signed both. It cannot be stressed enough how few long-term commitments the team has right now. I'm sure this is all moot anyway as the chances of signing both are less than 1%. 

Well, you'd definitely want to structure the deals so that the burden is lessened as we would need to re-sign the younger core. It would suck if some of our players turn out awesome but we have to let them sign elsewhere because we have 33 year old machado for $40 million

[TheFutureIsNear]

17 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

A somewhat injury prone soon to be 30 year old that has had 2 good seasons out of 6, 1 of which was his contract year, that is expected to sign a 5-6 year deal approaching $25M AAV.  What could possibly go wrong?  

 

2 out of the past 3 years Harper has hit sub .250 with a sub 4 WAR. He’s a safe bet to give $300+M to?(or whatever the $ will be).

 

Machado casually said to the media that he doesn’t believe in hustling or playing hard. That’s the guy you give $300+M to be the face of your franchise and lead your young guys? 

 

All I’m saying is every FA has warts, don’t see how without access to medicals, interviews, etc., you can determine who the best signings are/aren’t. We’ve all seen “safe” deals blow up

 

 

[ChiSox59]

30 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

2 out of the past 3 years Harper has hit sub .250 with a sub 4 WAR. He’s a safe bet to give $300+M to?(or whatever the $ will be).

Machado casually said to the media that he doesn’t believe in hustling or playing hard. That’s the guy you give $300+M to be the face of your franchise and lead your young guys? 

All I’m saying is every FA has warts, don’t see how without access to medicals, interviews, etc., you can determine who the best signings are/aren’t. We’ve all seen “safe” deals blow up

Not sure where you're going with this, but Corbin is a very high risk signing who will likely go to the Yankees for far too much money and is very likely well outside of where are the Sox are going to be with respect to years and dollars for FA SP.

MM and Harper are generational type talents available in the FA before they even hit their prime. Its unprecedented.  Is there a point in which the bidding goes so high that it makes more sense to diversify and not blow a ton of your budget on 1 player?  No doubt.  It remains to be seen if it gets that high, but if it does, fairly confident they won't be signing with the Sox.  But with where baseball is going these days, I lean more towards these guys getting less than the general consensus as opposed to more. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

45 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Not sure where you're going with this, but Corbin is a very high risk signing who will likely go to the Yankees for far too much money and is very likely well outside of where are the Sox are going to be with respect to years and dollars for FA SP.

MM and Harper are generational type talents available in the FA before they even hit their prime. Its unprecedented.  Is there a point in which the bidding goes so high that it makes more sense to diversify and not blow a ton of your budget on 1 player?  No doubt.  It remains to be seen if it gets that high, but if it does, fairly confident they won't be signing with the Sox.  But with where baseball is going these days, I lean more towards these guys getting less than the general consensus as opposed to more. 

That’s pretty much my point. I think we are going to have to overpay by a lot to get these guys to even look in the Sox direction. Not to mention I could argue how “generational” these 2 are, but that’s not worth getting into (yes, I know both are extremely good players).

 

We’ll see I guess, but I think fans are getting way ahead of themselves. I see a lot of disappointment coming this off season in terms of Sox moves. Just not enough light at the end of this rebuild yet to talk bringing in super stars. There will be enough other teams interested in Harper/Machado. Hopefully I’m wrong and we end up with 1. I sure could use a signing to justify my mlb.tv purchase the last few years 

Edited November 5, 2018 by TheFutureIsNear

[FT35]

Not to downplay a player like Harper...but switching leagues is always tough on even the best players.  Although he's a career .281 hitter in about 100 inter-league games, he hit .167 in inter-league games last year, so there's some hit or miss potential.  He also has 1 career 100 RBI season to his resume...his 2018 contract year.  Even throwing out his down year this year...his stats and defensive ability suggest he's a little over-rated.  

[jenksycat]

3 hours ago, steveno89 said:

Josh Donaldson could be a decent buy low option on a 2/40 type of deal? We are still easily a year away from really contending, but he could help on a much cheaper deal. 

I saw Donaldson make 1 throw in the playoffs and put him in the 'back' category.  I'd take him on a 2 year all day

[steveno89]

11 minutes ago, jenksycat said:

I saw Donaldson make 1 throw in the playoffs and put him in the 'back' category.  I'd take him on a 2 year all day

Any rumored interest for us to pursue Grandal? He is certainly going to get paid, but he would lock down our catching position for the next (3-5) seasons with Narvaez. 

Legitimate questions about Collins and Zavala defensively do not make me feel as if the position is settled long term. 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

That’s pretty much my point. I think we are going to have to overpay by a lot to get these guys to even look in the Sox direction. Not to mention I could argue how “generational” these 2 are, but that’s not worth getting into (yes, I know both are extremely good players).

 

We’ll see I guess, but I think fans are getting way ahead of themselves. I see a lot of disappointment coming this off season in terms of Sox moves. Just not enough light at the end of this rebuild yet to talk bringing in super stars. There will be enough other teams interested in Harper/Machado. Hopefully I’m wrong and we end up with 1. I sure could use a signing to justify my mlb.tv purchase the last few years 

Yeah, I do believe there is a number where it's too high, but also last year was illustrative.

Although to do so I'm going to ignore hosmer because that was just idiotic.

JD Martinez was the best position player on the market. He was gonna cost you 100 mill.

Would you have gotten "value" getting a few cheaper guys? I can't think of any combo. IT would be nailing a trifecta of like chacin, and some position players.

If you wanted actual production, you were better off paying for Upton or Martinez than "making it up in volume". 

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

That’s pretty much my point. I think we are going to have to overpay by a lot to get these guys to even look in the Sox direction.

I don't really believe in the little brother attitude so many have.  These guys likely go to whomever pays them the most.  Are they going to pick the Sox if they're the 5th highest bidder? Obviously not!! But I don't think the Sox need to outbid the next highest team by $25M+ to get them.  

[steveno89]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Yeah, I do believe there is a number where it's too high, but also last year was illustrative.

Although to do so I'm going to ignore hosmer because that was just idiotic.

JD Martinez was the best position player on the market. He was gonna cost you 100 mill.

Would you have gotten "value" getting a few cheaper guys? I can't think of any combo. IT would be nailing a trifecta of like chacin, and some position players.

If you wanted actual production, you were better off paying for Upton or Martinez than "making it up in volume". 

There is some truth in what you are saying. Sometimes you are better off paying for "known" production, than trying to cobble it together across several free agents. 

Sox are prepared to be aggressive in the Machado/Harper markets, but I don't think we should lose sight of the second and third tier free agents we should also be looking at. Buying low on the right player(s) can be lucrative. 

[Orlando]

From an MLBTR live chat

 

Quote

2:02

Do you think the White Sox will actually be able to get a big name this offseason?

 

Tim Dierkes

2:03

I do think that. It's weird - I think they will but we didn't end up picking them as a favorite for anyone on the list.  They are a real threat for Machado and can afford any free agent.  It's a matter of whether they want to push their chips in now or a year from now.

 

 

[steveno89]

16 minutes ago, Orlando said:

From an MLBTR live chat

 

 

 

Landing one big name now puts less pressure on them to sign a player like Arenado in free agency next year. At some point they do need to be willing to spend to help build a competitive roster. 

I wouldn't be surprised if they looked into the trade market to acquire talent either. Eloy, Kopech, and likely Cease/Robert are probably considered "untouchable", but pretty much anyone else is fair game to be dealt. 

 

[bmags]

Relevant, unsure to where:

 

[TheTruth05]

5 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if they looked into the trade market to acquire talent either. Eloy, Kopech, and likely Cease/Robert are probably considered "untouchable", but pretty much anyone else is fair game to be dealt. 

 

I would say they are still at least a year out from considering this. It's like the last part of building a championship roster IMO.

[Bob Sacamano]

5 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Landing one big name now puts less pressure on them to sign a player like Arenado in free agency next year. At some point they do need to be willing to spend to help build a competitive roster. 

I wouldn't be surprised if they looked into the trade market to acquire talent either. Eloy, Kopech, and likely Cease/Robert are probably considered "untouchable", but pretty much anyone else is fair game to be dealt. 

 

Right. Because theoretically, the prospects that come up and are productive will be cheap enough for them to make a big splash and add another piece or two if needed. If they're not willing to spend then this whole thing was pointless.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

Relevant, unsure to where:

 

Yeah, if it's true they want to keep costs low and add a big piece, they would have to pretty much non-tender Russell, trade Schwarber, and trade at least half of the remaining contract of Chatwood and an interesting prospect or two to a rebuilding team that needs innings and can take a chance on that type of arm (Royals? Tigers? Padres in that big ballpark?).

Edited November 5, 2018 by soxfan2014

[35thstreetswarm]

46 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't really believe in the little brother attitude so many have.  These guys likely go to whomever pays them the most.  Are they going to pick the Sox if they're the 5th highest bidder? Obviously not!! But I don't think the Sox need to outbid the next highest team by $25M+ to get them.  

This is the truth.  I'm aware of no precedent for a big-name, mid-career MLB free agent leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table because of soft considerations like competitiveness, "fit", franchise popularity, or any other factor patently not worth tens of millions of dollars to any rational economic actor.  I have no idea if the Sox will outbid the competition, but if they do I think they'll get their guy.

Edited November 5, 2018 by 35thstreetswarm