Morosi: White Sox interested in "both Machado and Harper"

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Cubs have no chance bro.  Their ownership literally had to sell equity to support their debt load.  Those trust fund kids don’t have endless pockets.

Didn't they just take on an additional investor(s) to raise funds for exactly that sort of move, to free up cash?

[greg775]

19 minutes ago, RickinIndiana said:

I agree with this wholeheartedly.  Harper is far too inconsistent to be given that kind of contract.  The only thing I see for anyone giving him that kind of money is lots of regret.

Isn't this truthfully what happens following most free agent signings of the excessively large nature? Regret? Philosophically you either pursue these kind of guys or you don't. I could go either way (on Harper signing), take it or leave it. I would be surprised if the Sox signed one player for that kind of money. Those who do not want to spend that kind of money on one guy could have their positioned backed by the fact many people are saying this one signing won't even make us immediate contenders. If that's the case, why sign him? Just continue with the rebuild.

Either way, I don't care. If we get him hopefully he'll help us win. If not, the Sox move on.

Edited November 16, 2018 by greg775

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

Yet in this case, we have no evidence at all that Bryce and Manny even like the organization. 

Well the good news is they probably like Chicago food and boatloads of money.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

It would be the most White Sox thing ever to spent significant money on Grandal instead of Harper/Machado.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Harper to the Cubs would really be a bad thing for the Sox.

It would be devastating.  And in all reality, we should be prepared to bid significantly higher than them to prevent it from happening.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Didn't they just take on an additional investor(s) to raise funds for exactly that sort of move, to free up cash?

That’s what I just said, they sold equity (took on additional investors) to help manage their debt load.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

Although the Cubs news is based on Dan Bernstein. He's been pretty off when it's come to baseball before. Laughably off.

Remember when he said the Sox we’re going to take on all those bad contracts for draft picks & whatnot?  Bernstein may be a smart guy, but he clearly doesn’t understand how baseball works.

[OmarComing25]

Fangraphs predicts Grandal to get 3/39, that really shouldn't impact a Machado/Harper pursuit. He's arguably a top 2 catcher in the league depending on how you value framing. We haven't had a decent framer in a few years and Grandal is so good at it that he's been worth 23 WARP over the last 4 seasons. Would definitely be a huge boost for our pitchers, I'd be more than fine with that signing.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, OmarComing25 said:

Fangraphs predicts Grandal to get 3/39, that really shouldn't impact a Machado/Harper pursuit. He's arguably a top 2 catcher in the league depending on how you value framing. We haven't had a decent framer in a few years and Grandal is so good at it that he's been worth 23 WARP over the last 4 seasons. Would definitely be a huge boost for our pitchers, I'd be more than fine with that signing.

At 3/$39 yah....figured he'd get quite a bit more than that.  

[caulfield12]

Because obviously they’re going to sign Yasiel Puig next year...all the Cubans (after Grandal, whose value was diminished by the postseason)!

In all seriousness, Puig in terms of name recognition/marketing and at a much lower price tag is more of a Sox move than Harper.

He’s somewhere between Belle and Machado on the character scale.  And he would only be 28 next offseason, so that would work as well with the timeline.

I’m not sure who else would move the scale.  Arenado, maybe.  Definitely not Rendon.   Paul Goldschmidt, perhaps.  We’re obviously not getting Trout.   Ohtani would be another due to the Japanese media/marketing.  I only mention Puig because he seems 5x or 10x more likely from a “Sox historical perspective” than Harper.

He’s closer to the competing in 2020/21 timeline, too.

18.6 fWAR over 6 seasons, average of 3.1, with incredible variance...much like Harper, ranging from 5.1 to 1.1.  Also similar to Harper, some of his biggest numbers were in his first couple of seasons in the big leagues.  The problem is the last 4 years of Puig gives you a 2.4-2.5 average, but the last two an improved 3.2, which is worth how much to the White Sox?

If you eliminate Harper’s 10 fWAR outlier season, he’s just 17.5 fWAR for 6 seasons, which is 1.1 less than Puig’s, actually.  And 3 of Harper’s 7 best seasons were in his first four, another troubling sign.

Yet Harper will get $400 million...it would seem MUCH wiser to sign the equivalent of 4 Puigs (one veteran starting pitcher, one elite reliever and someone like Grandal.)  

That way you’re adding 10-12, hopefully 15 fWAR at the same price in terms of total contract dollars as one Harper...and you’re spreading out that risk (or at least mitigating it) across 3-5 guys instead of putting all your eggs in one basket.

Even a lineup with Grandal and Puig at $120-150 million should put up the bigger numbers than Harper at $400...and you still have roughly $250 million to play with, Rodon left to trade, maybe Abreu and the #3 pick in the draft.

Edited November 16, 2018 by caulfield12

[Jose Abreu]

There's way too much "Harper is overrated because of WAR" going on here. We're talking about a guy who, over his last four seasons, has never had an OBP lower than .373. That's not even factoring in his power or the fact that he is just now entering his prime. Diminishing him to "he's just 17 WAR in 6 seasons" is a pretty weak argument to me. If you really think that Travis Shaw and Marcus Semien (higher WAR than Harper in 2018) were better than Harper last year then I don't know what to tell you other than you might want to rely less on WAR. 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

There's way too much "Harper is overrated because of WAR" going on here. We're talking about a guy who, over his last four seasons, has never had an OBP lower than .373. That's not even factoring in his power or the fact that he is just now entering his prime. Diminishing him to "he's just 17 WAR in 6 seasons" is a pretty weak argument to me. If you really think that Travis Shaw and Marcus Semien (higher WAR than Harper in 2018) were better than Harper last year then I don't know what to tell you other than you might want to rely less on WAR. 

Fuck WAR, give me Harper please.

I’ll happily take Machado as well ?

Edited November 16, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[Dam8610]

5 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

There's way too much "Harper is overrated because of WAR" going on here. We're talking about a guy who, over his last four seasons, has never had an OBP lower than .373. That's not even factoring in his power or the fact that he is just now entering his prime. Diminishing him to "he's just 17 WAR in 6 seasons" is a pretty weak argument to me. If you really think that Travis Shaw and Marcus Semien (higher WAR than Harper in 2018) were better than Harper last year then I don't know what to tell you other than you might want to rely less on WAR. 

It illustrates very clearly that all of his value is in the bat. That's higher risk than someone who is more diverse in their value.

The fact that he's a lefty slugger leaving the Nationals doesn't help either. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Dam8610 said:

It illustrates very clearly that all of his value is in the bat. That's higher risk than someone who is more diverse in their value.

The fact that he's a lefty slugger leaving the Nationals doesn't help either. 

What ages better, defense or batter’s eye?

Edited November 16, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[Dam8610]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What ages better, defense or batter’s eye?

Machado isn't exactly a slouch with the bat.

[caulfield12]

That would also give you five players in the lineup that should be counted on for 2.5-3.0 fWAR in Moncada, Anderson, Abreu, Puig, Grandal.

You’ve got Robert and Madrigal that we can easily project there as well.  That gives you seven.

Leaving DH, and one OF position or 3B depending on Moncada...and you still have Collins/Davidson/Palka/Burger for the cheap DH option or go out and grab a Nelson Cruz.   

Add Brantley or Pollock at 3/$45, Grandal at 3/$42, god knows what Puig will get.

 

CF Robert

2B Madrigal

3B Moncada

DH ???

1B Abreu

RF Puig

LF Brantley/Pollock

C Grandal

SS Anderson

 

That gives you the best lineup in the Central, you go out and then add one veteran starting pitcher and two relievers over the next couple of offseasons.

You don’t need to put all your eggs in Harper, Machado, Arenado.   You can have a much more effective impact with Grandal, Brantley/Pollock, Puig and the three veteran pitchers to go with our young stable of prospects.  Heck, you can even add Nelson Cruz for good measure, too.  All of that for the same total spending as one Harper signing.

 

 

 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

That wasn't your argument at all. Go look at what you posted. 

You're right that Heyward was pretty much the same age when he signed with the Cubs as Harper is now, but I don't know what their WAR has to do with anything. There's not a baseball fan on the face of the Earth that would take Heyward over Harper even though Heyward has been more "valuable" from a WAR standpoint over his career.

[Harry Chappas]

The cubs have sunk $750M into rebuilding wrigley that does not count for what they are doing outside of the park.  They have begun to sell off stake in the team to raise funds. 

The contracts they have picked up in Darvish, Chatwood and Hamels were necessary because they needed pitching and will going forward.

Their business model does not fit a $30+M player into the equation nor should it.   

In 3 years they will need to ante up as just about everyone will need to be paid except for those with current terrible contracts. 

 

 

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

There's way too much "Harper is overrated because of WAR" going on here. We're talking about a guy who, over his last four seasons, has never had an OBP lower than .373. That's not even factoring in his power or the fact that he is just now entering his prime. Diminishing him to "he's just 17 WAR in 6 seasons" is a pretty weak argument to me. If you really think that Travis Shaw and Marcus Semien (higher WAR than Harper in 2018) were better than Harper last year then I don't know what to tell you other than you might want to rely less on WAR. 

Essentially that solitary 10 fWAR season (out of 7) and “marketing” is being valued at $300 million in value.  Three of the four best years came in his first four, as well.  Are those great odds when you’re spending THAT much?

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

The cubs have sunk $750M into rebuilding wrigley that does not count for what they are doing outside of the park.  They have begun to sell off stake in the team to raise funds. 

The contracts they have picked up in Darvish, Chatwood and Hamels were necessary because they needed pitching and will going forward.

Their business model does not fit a $30+M player into the equation nor should it.   

In 3 years they will need to ante up as just about everyone will need to be paid except for those with current terrible contracts. 

 

 

Except who will they spend it on If Bryant is leaving and Rizzo is going to be phased out at roughly the same time??

Baez and Contreras (and catchers never age well) are your only two big ticket items if you can’t keep Bryant (or injury risk is too high).

None of the other young names merit even $100 million investments at this point in their careers.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I just don't see the point of Grandal. The Sox would have to forfeit a pick to get him and they already have Narvaez/Castillo with Collins/Zavala. 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

I just don't see the point of Grandal. The Sox would have to forfeit a pick to get him and they already have Narvaez/Castillo with Collins/Zavala. 

Narvaez won’t repeat, Castillo isn’t on the next playoff roster (likely dumped at first opportunity to save some of his money), Collins will likely DH or play 1B and Zavala likely won’t be anything of significance.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Narvaez won’t repeat, Castillo isn’t on the next playoff roster (likely dumped at first opportunity to save some of his money), Collins will likely DH or play 1B and Zavala likely won’t be anything of significance.

Is Collins really that much of a butcher defensively? I thought he was supposed to be the catcher long term. 

[Chicago White Sox]

22 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That would also give you five players in the lineup that should be counted on for 2.5-3.0 fWAR in Moncada, Anderson, Abreu, Puig, Grandal.

You’ve got Robert and Madrigal that we can easily project there as well.  That gives you seven.

Leaving DH, and one OF position or 3B depending on Moncada...and you still have Collins/Davidson/Palka/Burger for the cheap DH option or go out and grab a Nelson Cruz.   

Add Brantley or Pollock at 3/$45, Grandal at 3/$42, god knows what Puig will get.

 

CF Robert

2B Madrigal

3B Moncada

DH ???

1B Abreu

RF Puig

LF Brantley/Pollock

C Grandal

SS Anderson

 

That gives you the best lineup in the Central, you go out and then add one veteran starting pitcher and two relievers over the next couple of offseasons.

You don’t need to put all your eggs in Harper, Machado, Arenado.   You can have a much more effective impact with Grandal, Brantley/Pollock, Puig and the three veteran pitchers to go with our young stable of prospects.  Heck, you can even add Nelson Cruz for good measure, too.  All of that for the same total spending as one Harper signing.

 

 

 

Because we can already afford Harper & some of those signings.  It’s not an either or thing.

[fathom]

4 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

Is Collins really that much of a butcher defensively? I thought he was supposed to be the catcher long term. 

I've yet to see one person outside of the Sox org that thinks he can be a full-time catcher