Morosi: White Sox interested in "both Machado and Harper"

[bmags]

I'm not sure you are arguing different things.

The white sox are likely to add this year in possibly some big ways in both hitting and pitching if they feel it adds to long term and short term competitive outlook.

and

Those improvements are still unlikely to make them a playoff team given where they started.

I think sox will add in an exciting way this offseason, but I do not think their pitch is that we are ready to compete this year and you will lead us to the playoffs. It's just "we have a bright future ahead of us, and we see you being a leader and producer on the teams that take us over the top"

[Jose Abreu]

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox absolutely have to go outside the organization to get pitching, Kopech's injury left us no choice. We have 3 starting pitchers right now and 1 of them has a shoulder we should be worried about. We need at least 2 starting pitchers next year just to avoid forfeiting games. But, the top line starters available - Corbin and Keuchel - they do not do anything close to making this team competitive next year, and signing them both basically would destroy our payroll flexibility for the future if we did land one of the big fish. There are plenty of guys who might be ok and more affordable, but they're like 1/10 or 1/5 chances of them being good. Signing 2 of them gets us some innings, but they're a path to the team sucking next year. They're guys like Shields and Pomeranz, who were poor to bad last year. I'm totally ok with that! It has to happen for one more year. There's simply no path that puts this team anywhere on Cleveland's footing next year, let alone on the level of the Yankees or Astros, without so much player development happening that if you saw it you'd declare this staff coaches for life.

So yes, take what Hahn said at face value. There's no reason not to sign one of the 2 big fish if we can land them. But beyond that...do no harm. If you sign Keuchel and Corbin, or heck just one of them, you are doing harm. You are giving away my ability to sign a big contract player next offseason, or the offseason after that, to fill a role that we should be able to fill internally, and you're doing so for a very dicey proposition - that we're going to be competitive next year in an era where even the wild card teams really have no shot at doing damage and where our rotation looks on paper like a pushover compared to Cleveland's. 

We absolutely have to go outside the organization for pitching. We do not have warm bodies right now, there is simply no other option. But our targets, at least for this year, should be Shields, Pomeranz, etc. - guys on 1 year deals, guys who stank last year and who we shouldn't expect much from other than innings. If pitching winds up being a need next offseason,  there will be pitching available next offseason, and the offseason after that, and that will be the time to spend money on it.

I never said Corbin. I mentioned guys like Happ or Wade Miley and have mentioned Pomeranz also. Plus adding other 1-4 year positional player contracts. Unlike you I don't think payroll will be hampered very much by these signings. There's a lot of room on the payroll and trading Abreu and non tendering Avi gets us $20M more.

Plus you're completely ignoring the need to field a decent team next year for the new TV contract and the money it could bring. It might not be a team that gets in the playoffs or challenges Cleveland but it's a process that might give us 85 wins then the next year 90 and the year after that 95+ and in that time trade the FA's we signed to make room for the kids allowing payroll to drop while still having even more money from the TV deal. If you expect Moncada and Gio and Lopez to be good for 2021 then I surely can expect some progress from them next year along with a more durable Rodon who also could be traded when the time comes.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

I'm not sure you are arguing different things.

The white sox are likely to add this year in possibly some big ways in both hitting and pitching if they feel it adds to long term and short term competitive outlook.

and

Those improvements are still unlikely to make them a playoff team given where they started.

I think sox will add in an exciting way this offseason, but I do not think their pitch is that we are ready to compete this year and you will lead us to the playoffs. It's just "we have a bright future ahead of us, and we see you being a leader and producer on the teams that take us over the top"

I think we are. My plan is much more aggressive. More like the backwards rebuild. I want to add a lot this year to progress the timeline faster just in time for the new TV deal. Instead of filling in the gaps with free agents like most rebuilds do. I want to fill the roster with FA's and fill in the gaps with the kids when they are ready.

Balta wants to land the whale like I do then expects that whale to tread water and wait for the kids with only cheap fill ins for the pitching staff..

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I never said Corbin. I mentioned guys like Happ or Wade Miley and have mentioned Pomeranz also. Plus adding other 1-4 year positional player contracts. Unlike you I don't think payroll will be hampered very much by these signings. There's a lot of room on the payroll and trading Abreu and non tendering Avi gets us $20M more.

Plus you're completely ignoring the need to field a decent team next year for the new TV contract and the money it could bring. It might not be a team that gets in the playoffs or challenges Cleveland but it's a process that might give us 85 wins then the next year 90 and the year after that 95+ and in that time trade the FA's we signed to make room for the kids allowing payroll to drop while still having even more money from the TV deal. If you expect Moncada and Gio and Lopez to be good for 2021 then I surely can expect some progress from them next year along with a more durable Rodon who also could be traded when the time comes.

Like it or not, "not being good enough for our TV contract renewal" was the risk that Rick Hahn took in 2015 and 2016 when he sacrificed future seasons for his success those years. Doing things that hurt us long term or cost us the ability to sign the last player when we really need them, in order to win 78 games next year instead of 75 games...that's not going to affect this TV contract, but it could be the difference between a 98 win division champion and a 97 win wild card team that goes home after 1 game in 2021.

Miley could be ok for me, although he did miss more than 1/2 the year last year with an oblique injury which worries me because I need innings. But even though he was decent last year, he was rotten in 2016 and awful in 2017, so I'd struggle to see anyone giving him more than 1 year. Happ - one of these contenders might grab him for a couple years at the back of their rotation, he's been decent and reliable for several years in a row in the AL East.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think we are. My plan is much more aggressive. More like the backwards rebuild. I want to add a lot this year to progress the timeline faster just in time for the new TV deal. Instead of filling in the gaps with free agents like most rebuilds do. I want to fill the roster with FA's and fill in the gaps with the kids when they are ready.

Balta wants to land the whale like I do then expects that whale to tread water and wait for the kids with only cheap fill ins for the pitching staff..

Ah, thanks for clarifying.

I think I'm with balta. 

One reason for this is an exercise I caught up with last year, can't remember if I posted it somewhere.

Last offseason in about february just before a bunch of free agents signed, baseball media was perplexed at how many unsigned players there were.

Travis Sawchik wrote a post making a team of the remaining free agents and saying that it was probably a playoff team. I checked the WAR on that group in August, it was far behind the playoff teams in terms of team production. It even featured awesome players like JD Martinez.

Free agency is really hard, but for me to believe we could compete next year with an aggressive free agency means we'd have to hit close to 100% on not just productivity but career years out of those players.

Sox still have a bright future. But things like the bullpen we just have no idea how it will playout. 

It just requires a lot of luck, and I think it's better to save those bullets until we know we if we actually may need an upgrade at SS or CF or whatever while these kids perform.

ANd I still think 2020 is possible. A lot happens in 2 years. 2 years ago today, sox still had chris sale and adam eaton. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Like it or not, "not being good enough for our TV contract renewal" was the risk that Rick Hahn took in 2015 and 2016 when he sacrificed future seasons for his success those years. Doing things that hurt us long term or cost us the ability to sign the last player when we really need them, in order to win 78 games next year instead of 75 games...that's not going to affect this TV contract, but it could be the difference between a 98 win division champion and a 97 win wild card team that goes home after 1 game in 2021.

Miley could be ok for me, although he did miss more than 1/2 the year last year with an oblique injury which worries me because I need innings. But even though he was decent last year, he was rotten in 2016 and awful in 2017, so I'd struggle to see anyone giving him more than 1 year. Happ - one of these contenders might grab him for a couple years at the back of their rotation, he's been decent and reliable for several years in a row in the AL East.

Wait you are Ok with a whale signing but don't think a Harper or Machado on a decent team won't affect the TV contract ? I think it will immensely.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Wait you are Ok with a whale signing but don't think a Harper or Machado on a decent team won't affect the TV contract ? I think it will immensely.

I agree with that. Please go do that. I don't think that a Happ or a Lynn or any of those guys,  the guys who will win 1-2 extra games, will make any difference at all with the TV contract as I don't  think they are enough to make us competitive next year even with one of the big fish. And then importantly, if you sign someone to a multi year deal and you use up payroll that we could spend in 2020 and 2021, you are making the team I care about worse. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

15 minutes ago, bmags said:

Ah, thanks for clarifying.

I think I'm with balta. 

One reason for this is an exercise I caught up with last year, can't remember if I posted it somewhere.

Last offseason in about february just before a bunch of free agents signed, baseball media was perplexed at how many unsigned players there were.

Travis Sawchik wrote a post making a team of the remaining free agents and saying that it was probably a playoff team. I checked the WAR on that group in August, it was far behind the playoff teams in terms of team production. It even featured awesome players like JD Martinez.

Free agency is really hard, but for me to believe we could compete next year with an aggressive free agency means we'd have to hit close to 100% on not just productivity but career years out of those players.

Sox still have a bright future. But things like the bullpen we just have no idea how it will playout. 

It just requires a lot of luck, and I think it's better to save those bullets until we know we if we actually may need an upgrade at SS or CF or whatever while these kids perform.

ANd I still think 2020 is possible. A lot happens in 2 years. 2 years ago today, sox still had chris sale and adam eaton. 

Well I gave you my capsulized version. I laid it out more completely a few times in this thread and others. Most of the free agent contracts I see are in the 1-4 yr range and include  guys like Happ, Miley, Pomeranz, Brantley Donaldson ,a relief pitcher . Nothing too exorbitant in either years or mone who can be flipped at some point to make room for the kids or kept if we end up getting a lot of progress from the kids already on the roster.Maybe you trade Abreu for a short term fix in CF and a prospect , non tender Avi. It all depends on which whale we get. If the whale swims away then hey back to Baltas plan.

But I think Baltas vision is way too reliant on so many young pieces providing greatness right away . It;s like Ok lets suck again in 2019 but in 2021 we will be a superteam.

Edited November 13, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Well I gave you my capsulized version. I laid it out more completely a few times in this thread and others. Most of the free agent contracts I see are in the 1-4 yr range and include  guys like Happ, Miley, Pomeranz, Brantley Donaldson ,a relief pitcher . Nothing too exorbitant in either years or mone who can be flipped at some point to make room for the kids or kept if we end up getting a lot of progress from the kids already on the roster.Maybe you trade Abreu for a short term fix in CF and a prospect , non tender Avi. It all depends on which whale we get. If the whale swims away then hey back to Baltas plan.

But I think Baltas vision is way too reliant on so many young pieces providing greatness right away . It;s like Ok lets suck again in 2019 but in 2021 we will be a superteam.

No I saw, and I get it. I am not dogmatic on approach, and I think there are actually big benefits to our young pitchers in pitching on an 80-82 win team as opposed to another 68-72 win team in terms of pitching to pressure, keeping focus, etc. I just don't think there is any combination of players that can get us to 88 wins on the FA market that isn't adding $600 million+ in long term commitments (and I think the quickest way to playoffs is probably building a stupid expensive bullpen)

The good news is if the sox do your approach and the free agents strike out, it lets us know earlier that Hahn hasn't put the team around him front-office wise to take us to finish line.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Abreu deserves to be on a winner. I really hope Hahn can have a really impactful off-season for the Sox. Landing Harper would be a dream come true. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

No I saw, and I get it. I am not dogmatic on approach, and I think there are actually big benefits to our young pitchers in pitching on an 80-82 win team as opposed to another 68-72 win team in terms of pitching to pressure, keeping focus, etc. I just don't think there is any combination of players that can get us to 88 wins on the FA market that isn't adding $600 million+ in long term commitments (and I think the quickest way to playoffs is probably building a stupid expensive bullpen)

The good news is if the sox do your approach and the free agents strike out, it lets us know earlier that Hahn hasn't put the team around him front-office wise to take us to finish line.

Ok I am good with your non dogmatic approach and $600M sounds like a lot but $400M might be tied up in 1 player so another $200M sounds high for what I'm proposing especially since  I'm not proposing anything very long term at all. I Just want a more linear path that sees us progress each year but it does include a lot of improvement for 2019 and more gradual improvement in the following 2 years.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Ok I am good with your non dogmatic approach and $600M sounds like a lot but $400M might be tied up in 1 player so another $200M sounds high for what I'm proposing especially since  I'm not proposing anything very long term at all. I Just want a more linear path that sees us progress each year but it does include a lot of improvement for 2019 and more gradual improvement in the following 2 years.

You think so? It's hard to tell with prices, but I think $200 mill would go pretty fast. Even 3-4 level pitchers i'd peg at $16-18 mill aav. Any position players I'd peg at *at least* 15 million aav. I know people don't think Donaldson will get a lot, but I think he's at least a 2 for 40 guy. 

And if we do it, i'd really want them to get at least one projectably dominant bullpen pitcher.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Just now, bmags said:

You think so? It's hard to tell with prices, but I think $200 mill would go pretty fast. Even 3-4 level pitchers i'd peg at $16-18 mill aav. Any position players I'd peg at *at least* 15 million aav. I know people don't think Donaldson will get a lot, but I think he's at least a 2 for 40 guy. 

And if we do it, i'd really want them to get at least one projectably dominant bullpen pitcher.

Yes it is very hard to tell but even if it is another $200 M I don't see that as being crippling especially with a better TV deal while also phasing out those lesser FA's. Who knows maybe the past few years and a new Tv deal  will allow the Sox  a bigger payroll in the future.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

For shits and giggles, let's say the Sox are able to get Harper. Would you guys target someone like Josh Donaldson to play 3rd base? Or would you keep Yolmer there?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

For shits and giggles, let's say the Sox are able to get Harper. Would you guys target someone like Josh Donaldson to play 3rd base? Or would you keep Yolmer there?

I'd target Donaldson Moustakas or Marwin Gonzales for 3rd whoever comes cheapest and with less years. Maybe even Jake Lamb.

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

For shits and giggles, let's say the Sox are able to get Harper. Would you guys target someone like Josh Donaldson to play 3rd base? Or would you keep Yolmer there?

Donaldson for sure.  Steamer still thinks he’s a 5 WAR player.  Getting him for 2/$40M could be an absolute steal IMO.

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'd target Donaldson Moustakas or Marwin Gonzales for 3rd whoever comes cheapest and with less years. Maybe even Jake Lamb.

I mind adding a 3B a lot less than any other position simply because we are the most shallow there long term going forward.  That is exactly why Machado would be my #1 target going forward.  The marginal utility of an all-star level 3B will add the most value to the White Sox going forward, especially if you feel like we will find 3 starters out of our OF prospect jumble.

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I mind adding a 3B a lot less than any other position simply because we are the most shallow there long term going forward.  That is exactly why Machado would be my #1 target going forward.  The marginal utility of an all-star level 3B will add the most value to the White Sox going forward, especially if you feel like we will find 3 starters out of our OF prospect jumble.

Yep and Hahn said last week they want to acquire a premium 3rd baseman

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I'd be thrilled with Donaldson as well if the Sox can get Harper too. Injuries are obviously a concern with him but his upside is tremendous. When healthy, he's one of the best hitters in this entire free agent class.

[raBBit]

I'd be open for Donaldson though I know many are against it. His contract this offseason should fit into Sox plan. 

If we're living in dream scenario and Sox get Harper and are serious about Moncada to 3B (which  I don't agree with), I'd target Danny Murphy (aware he sucks at defense) for 2B/1B/DH. Should be real cheap on a two year deal. Dude gives some really strong ABs. I wouldn't want to be a pitcher going through that 1-5.

2B Murphy

3B Moncada

RF Harper

1B Abreu

LF Jimenez

DH Palka

C Castillo/Narvaez

SS Anderson

CF

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Whitesox27 said:

I'd be thrilled with Donaldson as well if the Sox can get Harper too. Injuries are obviously a concern with him but his upside is tremendous. When healthy, he's one of the best hitters in this entire free agent class.

I have a feeling Donladon will end up being the steal of this year’s class.  I wouldn’t want to go more than 2 or 3 years max, but adding him & Harper alongside Jimenez completely changes the complexion of the offense.  With some development from Moncada & a more consistent season from Abreu, we could actually have one of the better offenses in the league.  Obviously the pitching would be a problem, but gamble on some higher variance guys to fill the remaining two holesand hope that the Rodon, Lopez, & Giolito trio takes a big step forward next year.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I'd be open for Donaldson though I know many are against it. His contract this offseason should fit into Sox plan. 

If we're living in dream scenario and Sox get Harper and are serious about Moncada to 3B (which  I don't agree with), I'd target Danny Murphy (aware he sucks at defense) for 2B/1B/DH. Should be real cheap on a two year deal. Dude gives some really strong ABs. I wouldn't want to be a pitcher going through that 1-5.

2B Murphy

3B Moncada

RF Harper

1B Abreu

LF Jimenez

DH Palka

C Castillo/Narvaez

SS Anderson

CF

 

Daniel Murphy would be a nice bridge to Madrigal and could shift to 1B/DH if Nick ends up coming fast.  He’s another value free agent I’d be open to adding.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I have a feeling Donladon will end up being the steal of this year’s class.  I wouldn’t want to go more than 2 or 3 years max, but adding him & Harper alongside Jimenez completely changes the complexion of the offense.  With some development from Moncada & a more consistent season from Abreu, we could actually have one of the better offenses in the league.  Obviously the pitching would be a problem, but gamble on some higher variance guys to fill the remaining two holesand hope that the Rodon, Lopez, & Giolito trio takes a big step forward next year.

Now we're talkin' !

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I have a feeling Donladon will end up being the steal of this year’s class.  I wouldn’t want to go more than 2 or 3 years max, but adding him & Harper alongside Jimenez completely changes the complexion of the offense.  With some development from Moncada & a more consistent season from Abreu, we could actually have one of the better offenses in the league.  Obviously the pitching would be a problem, but gamble on some higher variance guys to fill the remaining two holesand hope that the Rodon, Lopez, & Giolito trio takes a big step forward next year.

Agreed. Just imagine the massive increase in OBP just from adding Harper and Donaldson. The Sox would have so many more guys on base every game.