Morosi: White Sox interested in "both Machado and Harper"

[royoung]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Because of the team schedule. There's a huge chance that the White Sox are not competitive in 2019 - IMO if they have that many players take huge steps forward they need to make Renteria and Cooper and Steverson coaches for life because that would be incredible performance even with Harper.

2020 looks Iffy at best. You can convince yourself that everything could go right, but we still have a young team, we would have very young catchers, we would have Kopech coming off an injury and needing to get innings more than anything else, we would have Cease as a rookie and who knows what you get from rookie pitchers even when they're talented, we would have to replace Abreu and that's going to eat into Free Agent dollars we have to spend...and that's before any other injuries happen. If you want to believe that Kopech is going to come back and have the same control he finished this year with, and that no one else is going to get hurt...you can see a path to competing that year, but that's so much of an "Everything goes right" case that it's hard to fathom right now.

2021 - that's the  year this season's Winston Salem OF hits the big leagues. That's the year Robert should take over CF. We're going to have more players hitting the big leagues than we know what to do with. We might have no choice but to trade 2 of them, and maybe we target someone like Blake Snell or Trea Turner or someone ridiculous like that because we'll have so many resources. We should be disappointed if we're not competitive that year, that would require everything going wrong again. 

If you sign Harper to a 3 year opt out he's here for 2021, but the more you front-load the deal the more likely he is to opt out. If he opts out after 2021, you have to be ready for Harper to be here during 1 competitive season. Imagine the scenario where the White Sox win 75 games this year, 81 games in 2020, and then 92 games and a wild card birth in 2021, only to lose in the Wild Card - and THEN HARPER LEAVES. Now you've done everything right to get to a Wild Card birth, you get 1 game in the playoffs, and then your best or second best player leaves as a free agent. Congrats, you paid $120 million, you got 1 playoff game, your fan base is disappointed because you lost,  and then they're demoralized because Harper signed a 10 year deal with the World Champion Yankees. Aside from the nightmare of the injuries continuing...that's just about the worst case scenario I can imagine.

Damn this is extremely detailed and extremely depressingly plausible

[SoxBlanco]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Because of the team schedule. There's a huge chance that the White Sox are not competitive in 2019 - IMO if they have that many players take huge steps forward they need to make Renteria and Cooper and Steverson coaches for life because that would be incredible performance even with Harper.

2020 looks Iffy at best. You can convince yourself that everything could go right, but we still have a young team, we would have very young catchers, we would have Kopech coming off an injury and needing to get innings more than anything else, we would have Cease as a rookie and who knows what you get from rookie pitchers even when they're talented, we would have to replace Abreu and that's going to eat into Free Agent dollars we have to spend...and that's before any other injuries happen. If you want to believe that Kopech is going to come back and have the same control he finished this year with, and that no one else is going to get hurt...you can see a path to competing that year, but that's so much of an "Everything goes right" case that it's hard to fathom right now.

2021 - that's the  year this season's Winston Salem OF hits the big leagues. That's the year Robert should take over CF. We're going to have more players hitting the big leagues than we know what to do with. We might have no choice but to trade 2 of them, and maybe we target someone like Blake Snell or Trea Turner or someone ridiculous like that because we'll have so many resources. We should be disappointed if we're not competitive that year, that would require everything going wrong again. 

If you sign Harper to a 3 year opt out he's here for 2021, but the more you front-load the deal the more likely he is to opt out. If he opts out after 2021, you have to be ready for Harper to be here during 1 competitive season. Imagine the scenario where the White Sox win 75 games this year, 81 games in 2020, and then 92 games and a wild card birth in 2021, only to lose in the Wild Card - and THEN HARPER LEAVES. Now you've done everything right to get to a Wild Card birth, you get 1 game in the playoffs, and then your best or second best player leaves as a free agent. Congrats, you paid $120 million, you got 1 playoff game, your fan base is disappointed because you lost,  and then they're demoralized because Harper signed a 10 year deal with the World Champion Yankees. Aside from the nightmare of the injuries continuing...that's just about the worst case scenario I can imagine.

In your scenario, why would Harper leave when we are just starting to get good and will probably be even better as our young guys get more experience? Especially when there is so much money potentially left on the table in those middle years of the 10 year deal.

[Dam8610]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Because of the team schedule. There's a huge chance that the White Sox are not competitive in 2019 - IMO if they have that many players take huge steps forward they need to make Renteria and Cooper and Steverson coaches for life because that would be incredible performance even with Harper.

2020 looks Iffy at best. You can convince yourself that everything could go right, but we still have a young team, we would have very young catchers, we would have Kopech coming off an injury and needing to get innings more than anything else, we would have Cease as a rookie and who knows what you get from rookie pitchers even when they're talented, we would have to replace Abreu and that's going to eat into Free Agent dollars we have to spend...and that's before any other injuries happen. If you want to believe that Kopech is going to come back and have the same control he finished this year with, and that no one else is going to get hurt...you can see a path to competing that year, but that's so much of an "Everything goes right" case that it's hard to fathom right now.

2021 - that's the  year this season's Winston Salem OF hits the big leagues. That's the year Robert should take over CF. We're going to have more players hitting the big leagues than we know what to do with. We might have no choice but to trade 2 of them, and maybe we target someone like Blake Snell or Trea Turner or someone ridiculous like that because we'll have so many resources. We should be disappointed if we're not competitive that year, that would require everything going wrong again. 

If you sign Harper to a 3 year opt out he's here for 2021, but the more you front-load the deal the more likely he is to opt out. If he opts out after 2021, you have to be ready for Harper to be here during 1 competitive season. Imagine the scenario where the White Sox win 75 games this year, 81 games in 2020, and then 92 games and a wild card birth in 2021, only to lose in the Wild Card - and THEN HARPER LEAVES. Now you've done everything right to get to a Wild Card birth, you get 1 game in the playoffs, and then your best or second best player leaves as a free agent. Congrats, you paid $120 million, you got 1 playoff game, your fan base is disappointed because you lost,  and then they're demoralized because Harper signed a 10 year deal with the World Champion Yankees. Aside from the nightmare of the injuries continuing...that's just about the worst case scenario I can imagine.

You frontload it in such a way that years 4-6 are attractive enough to make going back out on the open market look risky. Those will be the cheap, controllable years for a good portion of the core, and the rebuild will have failed if they don't have the fan interest to sustain a high dollar payroll by 2025. So, essentially you're getting the control you want while giving the player the optics they want and not outspending the market by some obscene amount. What's the downside? The minuscule risk of them opting out of what is essentially a 3 year high AAV deal? If smart, calculated risks aren't taken at some point, this rebuild won't be successful.

[Balta1701]

Just now, SoxBlanco said:

In your scenario, why would Harper leave when we are just starting to get good and will probably be even better as our young guys get more experience? Especially when there is so much money potentially left on the table in those middle years of the 10 year deal.

Because he'd be 29 years old and still in a position where he could easily get another 9-10 year deal. If you write a deal this year for 10/$400, and you do it as $40 million per year, after 2021 he would have $280 million remaining on his deal over the next 7 years. If he was still  a great outfielder at age 29, and salary inflation has continued for a few more years (New CBA might even guarantee the players more revenue), can you honestly tell me he wouldn't be able to beat a 7/$280 million contract? Albert Pujols got 10/$240 at age 32 and that was in the year 2012. Harper opting out would be talking about 10/$400 or more again after the year 2021, so you better be ready to outbid the Yankees...again.

[Buehrlesque]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you sign Harper to a 3 year opt out he's here for 2021, but the more you front-load the deal the more likely he is to opt out. If he opts out after 2021, you have to be ready for Harper to be here during 1 competitive season. Imagine the scenario where the White Sox win 75 games this year, 81 games in 2020, and then 92 games and a wild card birth in 2021, only to lose in the Wild Card - and THEN HARPER LEAVES. Now you've done everything right to get to a Wild Card birth, you get 1 game in the playoffs, and then your best or second best player leaves as a free agent. Congrats, you paid $120 million, you got 1 playoff game, your fan base is disappointed because you lost,  and then they're demoralized because Harper signed a 10 year deal with the World Champion Yankees. Aside from the nightmare of the injuries continuing...that's just about the worst case scenario I can imagine.

No, in this model, the worst-case scenario is not signing Harper altogether because you wouldn't relent on the opt-out at year three. So instead he signs elsewhere, that team enjoys success in 2020 related to Harper, then he uses his opt-out leverage to get a raise for the remaining years on his contract without hitting the open market. The Sox, meanwhile, save $40 mil/year for three years but have nothing really to show for it.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

You frontload it in such a way that years 4-6 are attractive enough to make going back out on the open market look risky. Those will be the cheap, controllable years for a good portion of the core, and the rebuild will have failed if they don't have the fan interest to sustain a high dollar payroll by 2025. So, essentially you're getting the control you want while giving the player the optics they want and not outspending the market by some obscene amount. What's the downside? The minuscule risk of them opting out of what is essentially a 3 year high AAV deal? If smart, calculated risks aren't taken at some point, this rebuild won't be successful.

Frontloading it is backwards. Frontloading it removes the penalty for opting out, the only way to make there be a penalty to opt out is to backload the deal. If you frontload the deal, then he gets lots of money at the front and little money at the end, so it makes way more sense to opt out and push up the value of those last few years. If you frontload a deal and then add in an opt out, then as long as the player is healthy they absolutely should take the opt out. The only way around an opt-out is to have there be money afterwards that the player can't match. 

Harper would take less money in years 4-6 if he was able to get more money in years 7-10 and then add in years 11, 12, and 13 on the second guaranteed deal. 

[Dam8610]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Because he'd be 29 years old and still in a position where he could easily get another 9-10 year deal. If you write a deal this year for 10/$400, and you do it as $40 million per year, after 2021 he would have $280 million remaining on his deal over the next 7 years. If he was still  a great outfielder at age 29, and salary inflation has continued for a few more years (New CBA might even guarantee the players more revenue), can you honestly tell me he wouldn't be able to beat a 7/$280 million contract? Albert Pujols got 10/$240 at age 32 and that was in the year 2012. Harper opting out would be talking about 10/$400 or more again after the year 2021, so you better be ready to outbid the Yankees...again.

Teams aren't stupid. Nor are players. How about this: you give me a total dollar number and AAV, I'll structure a deal with a year 3 opt out, and you give me a logical reason why he would opt out at year 3. Seem fair?

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Teams aren't stupid. Nor are players. How about this: you give me a total dollar number and AAV, I'll structure a deal with a year 3 opt out, and you give me a logical reason why he would opt out at year 3. Seem fair?

Why did you write this without giving the example?

Here's an example where he might or might not

20/20/20/50/50/50/50/50/50/50.

That's 10/$410. After a year 3 opt out, he would be leaving $350 million on the table over the next 7 years, and he might still opt out then if he thought he could get to $400 million again, but he might not. Whether he opted out that year might depend on what he actually did that year. Opting out could still very possibly add $50 million or more to his total career earnings.

That's the only way to do it, you have to make so little money go to him in the first 3 years that opting out costs him almost the entire contract amount.

[Dam8610]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Why did you write this without giving the example?

Here's an example where he might or might not

20/20/20/50/50/50/50/50/50/50.

That's 10/$410. After a year 3 opt out, he would be leaving $350 million on the table over the next 7 years, and he might still opt out then if he thought he could get to $400 million again, but he might not. Whether he opted out that year might depend on what he actually did that year.

Because the estimates for what Harper or Machado might get on the open market are all over the place. I need to know what you're expecting to structure the deal properly.

Also, no way in hell I sign your deal if I'm Harper or Machado and there's anything comparable with a year 3 opt out on the table somewhere. That's too little upfront money.

[SonofaRoache]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Frontloading it is backwards. Frontloading it removes the penalty for opting out, the only way to make there be a penalty to opt out is to backload the deal. If you frontload the deal, then he gets lots of money at the front and little money at the end, so it makes way more sense to opt out and push up the value of those last few years. If you frontload a deal and then add in an opt out, then as long as the player is healthy they absolutely should take the opt out. The only way around an opt-out is to have there be money afterwards that the player can't match. 

Harper would take less money in years 4-6 if he was able to get more money in years 7-10 and then add in years 11, 12, and 13 on the second guaranteed deal. 

You would front load the contract big time to change his opt out to year 5 instead of year three. Having 5 years of his service is worth it, even if he doesn't return after year 5. 

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Why did you write this without giving the example?

Here's an example where he might or might not

20/20/20/50/50/50/50/50/50/50.

That's 10/$410. After a year 3 opt out, he would be leaving $350 million on the table over the next 7 years, and he might still opt out then if he thought he could get to $400 million again, but he might not. Whether he opted out that year might depend on what he actually did that year. Opting out could still very possibly add $50 million or more to his total career earnings.

That's the only way to do it, you have to make so little money go to him in the first 3 years that opting out costs him almost the entire contract amount.

He probably takes the deal with the 35/40 per season up front and the opt out after 3 to look for the bigger dollars again in 3 years.  Who knows, maybe in that time the going rate is higher.

[Dam8610]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Why did you write this without giving the example?

Here's an example where he might or might not

20/20/20/50/50/50/50/50/50/50.

That's 10/$410. After a year 3 opt out, he would be leaving $350 million on the table over the next 7 years, and he might still opt out then if he thought he could get to $400 million again, but he might not. Whether he opted out that year might depend on what he actually did that year.

In fact, since you posted it, let's go 10/410 with opt outs at 3, 6, and 7.

55-55-50-/-55-50-50-/-40-/-25-20-10

So, let's look at year 3, assuming he's produced well. Teams aren't stupid, so he won't be looking at a 10/400 deal at age 29, but for sake of argument, let's say 7/280 is out there. Why would he opt out of 3/155 to get 7/280? He'd be getting over half that money in the first 3 years and could then supplement those earnings at age 32 with a 6/150 deal, which would likely be available at that point, or he could stick with it one more year, get 4/195, then supplement that with a 5/125 deal that would likely be available to him were he performing well at age 33. Any way you look at it, with the exception of teams becoming stupid again, it's stupid for the player to opt out at the age 29 season, and a lot smarter to opt out at age 33, which I want them to do anyway.

Edited November 14, 2018 by Dam8610

[SoxBlanco]

17 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

In fact, since you posted it, let's go 10/410 with opt outs at 3, 6, and 7.

55-55-50-/-55-50-50-/-40-/-25-20-10

So, let's look at year 3, assuming he's produced well. Teams aren't stupid, so he won't be looking at a 10/400 deal at age 29, but for sake of argument, let's say 7/280 is out there. Why would he opt out of 3/155 to get 7/280? He'd be getting over half that money in the first 3 years and could then supplement those earnings at age 32 with a 6/150 deal, which would likely be available at that point, or he could stick with it one more year, get 4/195, then supplement that with a 5/125 deal that would likely be available to him were he performing well at age 33. Any way you look at it, with the exception of teams becoming stupid again, it's stupid for the player to opt out at the age 29 season, and a lot smarter to opt out at age 33, which I want them to do anyway.

Good post. I'm sold. Let's offer that to him tomorrow.

[southsider2k5]

 

[greg775]

17 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Under no circumstance was that taken out of context.

You should find the thread. I stressed I realize it WOULD NEVER happen. But I better not go there again.

[hi8is]

4 minutes ago, greg775 said:

You should find the thread. I stressed I realize it WOULD NEVER happen. But I better not go there again.

You just did, sweetheart.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

In fact, since you posted it, let's go 10/410 with opt outs at 3, 6, and 7.

55-55-50-/-55-50-50-/-40-/-25-20-10

So, let's look at year 3, assuming he's produced well. Teams aren't stupid, so he won't be looking at a 10/400 deal at age 29, but for sake of argument, let's say 7/280 is out there. Why would he opt out of 3/155 to get 7/280? He'd be getting over half that money in the first 3 years and could then supplement those earnings at age 32 with a 6/150 deal, which would likely be available at that point, or he could stick with it one more year, get 4/195, then supplement that with a 5/125 deal that would likely be available to him were he performing well at age 33. Any way you look at it, with the exception of teams becoming stupid again, it's stupid for the player to opt out at the age 29 season, and a lot smarter to opt out at age 33, which I want them to do anyway.

He would ABSOLUTELY opt out of 3/155 to get 7/280. He would take the first opt out, he would take the 2nd opt out, he would take the 3rd opt out. He would take every single one of those unless he was hurt the year before. Those last 4 seasons are going to be years when he's after age 35, he is not going to make an extra $125 million in short term deals by then. 

You want an example of a back loaded deal that a player opted out of with Boras as his agent? Alex Rodriguez's first deal was backloaded. He signed at age 25, and played the first 6 years earning just over $22 million per year. In the first 6 years, he earned $135 million. He had $114 million on the table, an average of $29 million per year. He opted out of those last 4 years, at age 31, and then signed a 10/$275 deal. If Harper can hit free agency again and his deal is anything other HUGELY backloaded, he will opt out. 

[Dam8610]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He would ABSOLUTELY opt out of 3/155 to get 7/280. Those last 4 seasons are going to be years when he's after age 35, he is not going to make an extra $125 million in short term deals by then. 

You want an example of a back loaded deal that a player opted out of with Boras as his agent? Alex Rodriguez's first deal was backloaded. He signed at age 25, and played the first 6 years earning just over $22 million per year. In the first 6 years, he earned $135 million. He had $114 million on the table, an average of $29 million per year. He opted out of those last 4 years, at age 31, and then signed a 10/$275 deal. If Harper can hit free agency again and his deal is anything other HUGELY backloaded, he will opt out. 

You're either lying or not doing math correctly. The final 4 years of a 7/280 deal after a 3 year opt out would be ages 32-36, not "all...after age 35". Again, I want him to opt out at 32 or 33.

Edited November 14, 2018 by Dam8610

[Balta1701]

Just now, Dam8610 said:

You're either lying or not doing math correctly. The final 4 years of a 7/280 deal after a 3 year opt out would be ages 32-36, not "all...after age 35".

So you're saying he could hit free agency at age 32 and sign an 8+ year contract again? That's a joke of course he'd opt out of that. He would take every single opt out that you listed. 

[Dam8610]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So you're saying he could hit free agency at age 32 and sign an 8+ year contract again? That's a joke of course he'd opt out of that. He would take every single opt out that you listed. 

No, I'm saying at age 29, he'd be stupid to opt out of 3/155 for 7/280, because in the long run, he'll end up with less money on 7/280. You think a 32 year old Harper or Machado, continuing their current performance, wouldn't be able to get $125 million or more on the open market? Or that a 33 year old Harper or Machado wouldn't be able to get $85 million on the open market? Because that's basically your argument. I think Harper or Machado would be more willing to bet on themselves than you are.

[GreenSox]

3 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

Why is everyone scared of the year 3 opt out on a deal the Sox should be frontloading? 

Because 3 years barely puts him in the window of contention.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

No, I'm saying at age 29, he'd be stupid to opt out of 3/155 for 7/280, because in the long run, he'll end up with less money on 7/280. You think a 32 year old Harper or Machado, continuing their current performance, wouldn't be able to get $125 million or more on the open market? Or that a 33 year old Harper or Machado wouldn't be able to get $85 million on the open market? Because that's basically your argument. I think Harper or Machado would be more willing to bet on themselves than you are.

He's not going to have only 3 years remaining on his deal at age 29, he'll have 7/250 in the setup you wrote, and he would absolutely be able to beat that on the FA market unless he was hurt or Heywarded the contract, probably in the range of 10/450 if he just kept doing what he was doing now. So I have no idea what you're saying. He'd take that opt out at age 29 after 2021 with no thought at all.

[Dick Allen]

If the Sox were legit contenders now, I would have no problem giving him an opt out after 3 years. But you are asking for a lot of things to go more than right very quickly for that to be the case. 

I am sticking with 10 years $350 million. No opt outs. The most well known MLB baseball player is a White Sox for a decade. See what that does with Harper and Boras. The money can be negotiated higher if necessary. But you have to see where you stand, and see if you are just being used. It is amazing to me how much you read about these players dancing with teams and how long it takes for an offer. Give them something legit. If they just want to file it, the White Sox are probably in the same position on his destination list Chicago was on Amazons.

Edited November 14, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Dam8610]

20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He's not going to have only 3 years remaining on his deal at age 29, he'll have 7/250 in the setup you wrote, and he would absolutely be able to beat that on the FA market unless he was hurt or Heywarded the contract, probably in the range of 10/450 if he just kept doing what he was doing now. So I have no idea what you're saying. He'd take that opt out at age 29 after 2021 with no thought at all.

Why would a player look at it from any perspective other than opt out to opt out? The money on the deal from years 4-6 would be $155 million for 3 years, at which point, he'd have another opt out. Your argument seems to be based on the presumption that either the player is stupid or the teams are stupid, which is why it doesn't make much sense. Stop hyperventilating over a 3rd year opt out. Structured correctly, it's fine to put in a contract.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Why would a player look at it from any perspective other than opt out to opt out? The money on the deal from years 4-6 would be $155 million for 3 years, at which point, he'd have another opt out. Your argument seems to be based on the presumption that either the player is stupid or the teams are stupid, which is why it doesn't make much sense. Stop hyperventilating over a 3rd year opt out. Structured correctly, it's fine to put in a contract.

Because he gets an additional $200 million guaranteed and then negotiates another 3 year opt out so that he has one more chance to hit the market at age 32?