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Midterms 2018


pettie4sox

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4 hours ago, pettie4sox said:

If JB does that, it will help the state tremendously!   If you have the other states rolling into Illinois to smoke dope, that's good for the economy.  It's on the ballot in Michigan and Missouri... Illinois needs to be the first.

Good for economy, bad for healthcare.

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4 hours ago, LittleHurt05 said:

No matter what the election results are tonight, we are all winners tomorrow, because we no longer have to watch those disgusting, shaming, polarizing political ads on TV anymore.  Everyone has just turned to shame tactics to try and win votes.

oh yeah. Agreed.

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1 minute ago, Soxbadger said:

Its a joke. Indianas deep red are the first to report so the whole map is red. 

Oh, gotcha. Yeah, Braun is already in the lead but I have no idea what precincts are reporting and 10% of precincts are reporting.

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6 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

Ptatc has talked a lot about marijuana and heart disease. But generally smoking likely bad for health compared to not smoking.

Different argunent would be if smoking replaced alcohol and opiates.

So the implication would be that marijuana users are increasing their risk to heart disease?

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Really strange results so far...nobody expected Wexton (D) to be up 17% on Comstock in VA, but Donnelly being down almost 16% against Braun (even if it's only 25% reporting) in Indiana is a bit of a shocker as well.

By the end of the evening, a 53-47 split in the Senate wouldn't be much of a shock.

Winning ND is long gone.  TN, Texas seem like long shots at best.  Missouri could go either way, just like NV and AZ.

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VA 2 and 7 are the next dominoes to fall.

Otoh, the GOP has kept Barr's seat and another key VA race, so it's not going to be a blue wave.  Net is +2 so far.

Things looking pretty grim for Donnelly and Abrams, Nelson and Gillum could go either way in FLA.  Also a bit surprised by the margins in the TN Senate race, Bredesen was expected to be within at least 5%.

 

An O'Rourke win in Texas (still highly unlikely) and he becomes the temporary favorite for the Dems in 2020.

Edited by caulfield12
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Seems like they're heading for 223-227 in the House (218 for majority).

Most optimistically, they were initially looking at 235-240.   Trump will be able to tout his Senate holds, even though more and more of the governorship's and state legislatures are trending in the Dem column.

 

With Donnelly losing to Braun, all Senate hopes are already extinguished before they even got started.

 

And, if Nelson and Gillum both lose in FL, that's a HUGE break for Trump's 2020 chances.  He absolutely has to win FL/OH...because WI/PA/MI/IA are going to be much harder gets the second time around.

 

Another fascinating subplot....Kansas, Maine, South Dakota are all trending Dem (so far) for governor, any of those three going that direction would be pretty darned surprising.   Wisconsin and Ohio continue to be the two races (after FL and GA) that everyone's closely monitoring.

Edited by caulfield12
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2 hours ago, raBBit said:

So the implication would be that marijuana users are increasing their risk to heart disease?

Direct quote from PTATC: "So if you smoke pot you will have a heart attack."

 

 

Edited by Leonard Zelig
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Pettie, don't get the thread closed, lol...

 

In the battlefield (vulnerable GOP) House races, the Dems are up 12-9 so far, with PA-14 and potentially NJ-5 the only ones that look like they could be going the other direction.

Net House pickup is 12 seats, so far.  PA has been a wipe-out for the GOP, compared to the last few elections...GOP can take solace in FL, Georgia, Indiana, ND.   Losing PA is also going to make winning it in 2020 for Trump a huge hill to climb (twice).

Trump will still be able to declare victory...especially if Gillum and Abrams both lose their races.  It means we'll see more of the same for the next two years (immigration/identity-based politics).

 

Knocking off Scott Walker and Kobach is a SMALL consolation for Dems.  The bloom is already off the Walker rose, after 2016.

Cruz just knocked off O'Rourke.  Beto's still got a puncher's chance in 2020 if he can figure out how to tack towards the middle and off his extremely progressive views (which never had a chance in a statewide Texas race, but would play much better in a Dem primary assuming he's not hemmed in by Sanders/Warren/K.Harris).  Feel that Sanders won't run again, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Edited by caulfield12
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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

VA 2 and 7 are the next dominoes to fall.

Otoh, the GOP has kept Barr's seat and another key VA race, so it's not going to be a blue wave.  Net is +2 so far.

Things looking pretty grim for Donnelly and Abrams, Nelson and Gillum could go either way in FLA.  Also a bit surprised by the margins in the TN Senate race, Bredesen was expected to be within at least 5%.

 

An O'Rourke win in Texas (still highly unlikely) and he becomes the temporary favorite for the Dems in 2020.

I’m not surprised that the Senate went towards the GOP after Kavanaugh’s nomination. Casten looks to be unseating Roskam. Suburban voters seem to be rejecting Trump in the Midwest. A blue wave in the house but interesting gubernatorial outcomes. At least I feel like I have more representation even if Rauner lost.

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