White sox active in starting pitching market

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, aeichhor said:

Heres the other pessimistic one

If you actually look at the details, you can see it.  Speaking in glittery generalities, as you are?  Not so much.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

Heres the other pessimistic one

Honestly at least you were more reasonable than normal - you gave up and admitted that we have to trade some prospects to make this have any reasonable shot. If we were aggressive enough on the trade market, we might be able to actually pull it off, but to my eyes we're going to have to talk about dealing Madrigal and Collins as headliners, along with lower level guys like Rutherford and Dunning and so on, to really be able to pull in enough talent. We could probably declare Cease and Robert off limits and still make a legit run at it, but to put together a roster that has a pitching staff you can count on, we're going to have to fill those couple holes that weren't filled in that list. 

If someone's really serious about this, then let's put Madrigal and Collins and Rutherford on the table and go get Kluber or Syndergaard. 

[Whisox05]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Again the odds of all of this lining up all at the same time is what? 

-Cleveland has to trade off a decent amount of wins to start with.  Either that or the wild cards have to fall way back.

-Signing a top guy:  As of now the Sox are not even the favorite of one of the top guys.  What are we talking here 25% tops?4

-Needing someone to either be signed as, or stepping up as the ace of the rotation:  Rodon has an ace ceiling, but what are the odds of his not only staying healthy for an entire season, but also pitching like an ace?  5%?  10%?

-Past Rodon, you would need both extra-ordinary health and jumps in performance from both Giolito and Lopez.  Innings I can can give you, as both have stayed fairly healthy, but do you see Lucas AND Rey stepping up as 2/3 types of starters THIS YEAR?  What are the odds here?  Again, maybe 5-10%?

-Past the top three, you would also need to find two more starters to give you something around at least league average performances, while also staying relatively healthy, plus getting depth from the minors that doesn't hurt you when it is needed.  Odds of this?  Really long unless you are talking about spending a lot more money here.

-Now you have to get the bullpen to give you historical performances from guys like Jones and Colome on the high end, and anyone else you sign, PLUS get good leaps from all of the kids who are going to be your primary set up men.  With as volatile as pens are, and the learning curve for kids, the odds here?  Yeah, that is got to be something like 1% of all of this lining up.

That just gets us through the pitching staff.

 

Which is why you sign a better starter to a multi year deal then signing 2 fillers. 

[Whisox05]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If you actually look at the details, you can see it.  Speaking in glittery generalities, as you are?  Not so much.

It's OK man. Be a Debbie downer

[fathom]

If the Sox did land Machado, I absolutely believe they should use Madrigal as a trade chip.

[Whisox05]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Honestly at least you were more reasonable than normal - you gave up and admitted that we have to trade some prospects to make this have any reasonable shot. If we were aggressive enough on the trade market, we might be able to actually pull it off, but to my eyes we're going to have to talk about dealing Madrigal and Collins as headliners, along with lower level guys like Rutherford and Dunning and so on, to really be able to pull in enough talent. We could probably declare Cease and Robert off limits and still make a legit run at it, but to put together a roster that has a pitching staff you can count on, we're going to have to fill those couple holes that weren't filled in that list. 

If someone's really serious about this, then let's put Madrigal and Collins and Rutherford on the table and go get Kluber or Syndergaard. 

I didn't say anything about trading guys but would not try to cause of depleting the system to that extent. Trading for maybe a sonny grey shouldnt cost that much since it seems the Yankees are trying to get rid of him. Also wouldn't trade for Greinke but he shouldnt cost that much if you are willing to take a good amount of his contract on. 

[Sockin]

I don't expect them to have a swing like the Twins did a few seasons ago but I definitely expect them to much better than last year. If the FO is aggressively pursuing and lands a few of these guys (i.e. Grandal, Brantley/Pollock, Happ) and improvements and arrivals from the core, you would hope they would be. Harper and Machado are very exciting to think about but realistically the Yankees and Phillies have deep pockets and I don't see a reason for either to want to come here unless for some reason they really like Chicago. 

Edited December 3, 2018 by Sockin

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

I didn't say anything about trading guys but would not try to cause of depleting the system to that extent. Trading for maybe a sonny grey shouldnt cost that much since it seems the Yankees are trying to get rid of him. Also wouldn't trade for Greinke but he shouldnt cost that much if you are willing to take a good amount of his contract on. 

Sonny Gray is not the kind of move you make if you believe this team is competitive next year, it's the kind of move you make if you are bypassing the year.

Greinke, he's a legit pitcher, but the D-Backs aren't giving him up for nothing even if you take on his contract, we've seen that for a number of guys, they want something back of at least some value before they move them.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Again the odds of all of this lining up all at the same time is what? 

-Cleveland has to trade off a decent amount of wins to start with.  Either that or the wild cards have to fall way back.

-Signing a top guy:  As of now the Sox are not even the favorite of one of the top guys.  What are we talking here 25% tops?4

-Needing someone to either be signed as, or stepping up as the ace of the rotation:  Rodon has an ace ceiling, but what are the odds of his not only staying healthy for an entire season, but also pitching like an ace?  5%?  10%?

-Past Rodon, you would need both extra-ordinary health and jumps in performance from both Giolito and Lopez.  Innings I can can give you, as both have stayed fairly healthy, but do you see Lucas AND Rey stepping up as 2/3 types of starters THIS YEAR?  What are the odds here?  Again, maybe 5-10%?

-Past the top three, you would also need to find two more starters to give you something around at least league average performances, while also staying relatively healthy, plus getting depth from the minors that doesn't hurt you when it is needed.  Odds of this?  Really long unless you are talking about spending a lot more money here.

-Now you have to get the bullpen to give you historical performances from guys like Jones and Colome on the high end, and anyone else you sign, PLUS get good leaps from all of the kids who are going to be your primary set up men.  With as volatile as pens are, and the learning curve for kids, the odds here?  Yeah, that is got to be something like 1% of all of this lining up.

That just gets us through the pitching staff.

 

The Oakland A’s won 97 games last year due to their young positional group.  The Braves won 90 games with two of their best players being first year guys in Albies & Acuna.  Neither team had a dominant pitching staff.  You & Balta act like any holes / question marks means a team can’t be competitive and that’s simply not true.  Development isn’t linear and young players in particular can take massive strides in short periods of time.  Moncada & Jimenez are elite talents capable of leading a huge turnaround next year.  If you want to wait for those guys to breakthrough before investing in the team, you risk losing a crucial year of service time if it happens next year and you don’t have a respectable roster.  That doesn’t mean we should go all-in by any means, but the days of tanking should end the moment Eloy is up here.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Oakland A’s won 97 games last year due to their young positional group.  The Braves won 90 games with two of their best players being first year guys in Albies & Acuna.  Neither team had a dominant pitching staff.  You & Balta act like any holes / question marks means a team can’t be competitive and that’s simply not true.  Development isn’t linear and young players in particular can take massive strides in short periods of time.  Moncada & Jimenez are elite talents capable of leading a huge turnaround next year.  If you want to wait for those guys to breakthrough before investing in the team, you risk losing a crucial year of service time if it happens next year and you don’t have a respectable roster.  That doesn’t mean we should go all-in by any means, but the days of tanking should end the moment Eloy is up here.

Atlanta was #5 in the NL in ERA and Oakland was #6 in the AL in ERA. Literally out of the top 11 teams in ERA last year out of their full pitching staffs, you had 9 playoff teams. The only team to make the playoffs without an ERA under 3.81 was the Rockies, and the only 2 teams with top 11 pitching staffs to miss the playoffs were Arizona and Tampa Bay. 

So, if you want to talk about a playoff team, you better talk to me about a pitching staff in the top 1/3 of the league. 

[Whisox05]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Sonny Gray is not the kind of move you make if you believe this team is competitive next year, it's the kind of move you make if you are bypassing the year.

Greinke, he's a legit pitcher, but the D-Backs aren't giving him up for nothing even if you take on his contract, we've seen that for a number of guys, they want something back of at least some value before they move them.

How is sonny grey a player that is used for bypassing a year and not competitive? He didnt do well cause of NY. It's only a 1 yr deal and filling innings Hopefully at a better rate then shields did. Also Greinke is a dead weight contract that the diamond backs would probably love to unload. I wouldn't touch him but if you were willing to take onore of the contract that means less quality to them unless they are willing to eat more to get better quality in return

[ptatc]

51 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

There is no realistic scenario that has the Sox making the playoffs this year.  Even something where we go out and sign top free agents AND have everyone who returns have a ceiling type of a year is a 1 in a 1000 scenario.

If the indians trade away kluber and others the division will be wide open. Literally any team could win it if they add 100 million in payroll.

[turnin' two]

17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Take a look at what you had to do - you had to go up to $150 million, you had to pay Bumgarner's price, your rotation still has a hole in it, your bulpen still has a hole in it, you probably haven't traded Madrigal but you probably had to move Rutherford and Dunning to get Bumgarner out of SF, you probably had to trade someone else like Collins to get Greinke, and now you still have a couple holes to fill with a whole lot of question marks. 

I think there's as good of a chance that you set us back and leave us depleted from the guys you've traded, with no money to spend long-term, as there is that you actually make a run at the Central (and let's face it, the Wild Card would probably be out of reach because Boston/NYY is getting one of those and the field is competing for the other).

If Rick Hahn did that and wound up at 75 wins again...well it'd be another classic Rick Hahn special.

How many rotations are good 5 deep?  Plus you would have Cease on the horizon, possibly even next season.  

Every bullpen has holes.  Even the great ones.  This is an area where I feel pretty confident the Sox can fill it in house.  Burdi will hopefully be in the mix at some point as well.  Ruiz, Bummer, Medeiros, Stephens and -- gulp--- Fulmer could all make contributions.

Trading Dunning would hurt, and realistically, Bumgarner doesn't make sense for the Sox because they aren't in a one year desperate to win situation, I was playing like a one year situation because I wanted to be a stickler for a one-off scenario like southsider.  But anyways, trading those guys, well, it can be done without crippling the system.  Rutherford is what, 4th -- 7th on the minor league OF depth chart, depending on your view (personally I like him and would have him on the higher end of that).  Dunning looks like he will be solid, but he is a pitcher that had an elbow issue problem and hasn't pitched above AA.  That isn't depleting the system.  Dunning would hurt though, and I would try my best to make it someone else.  I may personally prefer to trade Madrigal than Dunning actually, but I'm a pitching guy.

I am actually very curious to see what happens to Greinke.  I think if a team is willing to pick up 25 mil per year on him, then it wouldn't take that much prospect-wise, but who knows.

Let's say that they trade Rutherford, Dunning and Collins.  That doesn't seem like it sets you back very much.  You'd still have your top level hitters, and pitchers.  Collins would hurt as his OBP is a rare tool, as his a catcher, but that is a question in itself.

They wouldn't exactly be broke long term.  Bumgarner is a one year deal.  He moves on, Kopech comes in.  Greinke's money is gone after 3 years.  Moose would probably be 2-3 years.  The only real long term commitment would be Harper.  And I think most would be ok with that. 

The thing about having all the minor league depth, is that, the plan at least, should be those guys filling those holes.  Hamilton, Burdi, Burr, Fry, Frare, Johnson and more to fill the bullpen.  Kopech, and Cease at the top of the rotation.  Robert, Basabe or Gonzalez in CF.  

Again, I know this isn't realistic at all.  That isn't the point.

More to the point, is that if the Sox want to be competitive in 2020, they need to make some strides this season. Because while it is unrealistic to expect a 30 game improvement this season, when they can spend and there are elite talent free agents, it is just as crazy to think they will make the jump next year, when there aren't the same talents available.  This also doesn't account for guys that could make the leap.  Maybe one or more of Moncada, Anderson, Lopez or Palka makes a leap next year.  Maybe they won't.  But even if they get marginally better, it makes a difference.  

I just don't see the point in being completely hopeless.  Maybe it is being realistic, but why shout other people down for having hope?  That just seems stupid.

[turnin' two]

13 minutes ago, ptatc said:

If the indians trade away kluber and others the division will be wide open. Literally any team could win it if they add 100 million in payroll.

Yes.  This.  They are already losing several key players.  Losing someone like Kluber or Bauer could really hurt, depending on what they got back, but it seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul at the very best.

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

How many rotations are good 5 deep?  Plus you would have Cease on the horizon, possibly even next season.  

Every bullpen has holes.  Even the great ones.  This is an area where I feel pretty confident the Sox can fill it in house.  Burdi will hopefully be in the mix at some point as well.  Ruiz, Bummer, Medeiros, Stephens and -- gulp--- Fulmer could all make contributions.

Trading Dunning would hurt, and realistically, Bumgarner doesn't make sense for the Sox because they aren't in a one year desperate to win situation, I was playing like a one year situation because I wanted to be a stickler for a one-off scenario like southsider.  But anyways, trading those guys, well, it can be done without crippling the system.  Rutherford is what, 4th -- 7th on the minor league OF depth chart, depending on your view (personally I like him and would have him on the higher end of that).  Dunning looks like he will be solid, but he is a pitcher that had an elbow issue problem and hasn't pitched above AA.  That isn't depleting the system.  Dunning would hurt though, and I would try my best to make it someone else.  I may personally prefer to trade Madrigal than Dunning actually, but I'm a pitching guy.

I am actually very curious to see what happens to Greinke.  I think if a team is willing to pick up 25 mil per year on him, then it wouldn't take that much prospect-wise, but who knows.

Let's say that they trade Rutherford, Dunning and Collins.  That doesn't seem like it sets you back very much.  You'd still have your top level hitters, and pitchers.  Collins would hurt as his OBP is a rare tool, as his a catcher, but that is a question in itself.

They wouldn't exactly be broke long term.  Bumgarner is a one year deal.  He moves on, Kopech comes in.  Greinke's money is gone after 3 years.  Moose would probably be 2-3 years.  The only real long term commitment would be Harper.  And I think most would be ok with that. 

The thing about having all the minor league depth, is that, the plan at least, should be those guys filling those holes.  Hamilton, Burdi, Burr, Fry, Frare, Johnson and more to fill the bullpen.  Kopech, and Cease at the top of the rotation.  Robert, Basabe or Gonzalez in CF.  

Again, I know this isn't realistic at all.  That isn't the point.

More to the point, is that if the Sox want to be competitive in 2020, they need to make some strides this season. Because while it is unrealistic to expect a 30 game improvement this season, when they can spend and there are elite talent free agents, it is just as crazy to think they will make the jump next year, when there aren't the same talents available.  This also doesn't account for guys that could make the leap.  Maybe one or more of Moncada, Anderson, Lopez or Palka makes a leap next year.  Maybe they won't.  But even if they get marginally better, it makes a difference.  

I just don't see the point in being completely hopeless.  Maybe it is being realistic, but why shout other people down for having hope?  That just seems stupid.

You're 100% right the Sox should be better this season, if they're not then that means even more people got hurt and that is moving into disaster territory. Some of the guys they brought up should be better, and yes they should absolutely try to land an "Elite talent free agent". No one saying "They won't be competitive next year" is also saying "We should avoid Harper and Machado" as far as I can tell, we're saying that we should try our best to land one of them, at almost any cost, but even when we do that this roster is still too weak until our pitching and outfield reinforcements arrive. But treating "We won't be competitive next year" as us not wanting Harper or Machado, that is on the verge of a smear it's so wrong.

What we don't want to do is:

1. Waste resources that we want available in 2020 by signing weak pitchers or outfielders to multi year deals
2. Give up the kind of talent in trades it would take to build a legit roster if it would remove guys we could use in 2021 or guys that we could trade that offseason to fill our final holes.
3. Hear the team say they're going to be competitive right now again with a roster primed to win 75 games because of the lack of depth. 

So yes, we still need to pick up a Sonny Gray or a Drew Pomeranz, but the idea that those will be the guys who put us over the top compared to even Cleveland's rotation bugs me, the idea that these rotations are going to be competitive is laughable, and the idea that we're going to give up something useful for a player like Sonny Gray when there seems to be actual demand for him - ugh. 

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

You're 100% right the Sox should be better this season, if they're not then that means even more people got hurt and that is moving into disaster territory. Some of the guys they brought up should be better, and yes they should absolutely try to land an "Elite talent free agent". No one saying "They won't be competitive next year" is also saying "We should avoid Harper and Machado" as far as I can tell, we're saying that we should try our best to land one of them, at almost any cost, but even when we do that this roster is still too weak until our pitching and outfield reinforcements arrive. 

What we don't want to do is:

1. Waste resources that we want available in 2020 by signing weak pitchers or outfielders to multi year deals
2. Give up the kind of talent in trades it would take to build a legit roster if it would remove guys we could use in 2021 or guys that we could trade that offseason to fill our final holes.
3. Hear the team say they're going to be competitive right now again with a roster primed to win 75 games because of the lack of depth. 

So yes, we still need to pick up a Sonny Gray or a Drew Pomeranz, but the idea that those will be the guys who put us over the top compared to even Cleveland's rotation bugs me, the idea that these rotations are going to be competitive is laughable, and the idea that we're going to give up something useful for a player like Sonny Gray when there seems to be actual demand for him - ugh. 

I don't think it's that much of a stretch. If Rodon stays healthy and Lopez and Giolito build on last year and become a little more consistent, that's a good start of a rotation. I'm not saying it will but it's not laughable.

[southsider2k5]

48 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

It's OK man. Be a Debbie downer

Damn man, try not to drown in me in so many details or information. 

[caulfield12]

Right now, matching Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer/Clevinger/Bieber/Santana with our rotation isn’t fair.

Even taking Kluber out doesn’t make it close if you match them up spot by spot.  Look at the numbers of Clevinger, for example.  He would be our #1 starter, arguably.  Or a healthy Santana, who might not even make their rotation, but could easily end up a dominant back-end reliever.

Edited December 3, 2018 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

44 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Oakland A’s won 97 games last year due to their young positional group.  The Braves won 90 games with two of their best players being first year guys in Albies & Acuna.  Neither team had a dominant pitching staff.  You & Balta act like any holes / question marks means a team can’t be competitive and that’s simply not true.  Development isn’t linear and young players in particular can take massive strides in short periods of time.  Moncada & Jimenez are elite talents capable of leading a huge turnaround next year.  If you want to wait for those guys to breakthrough before investing in the team, you risk losing a crucial year of service time if it happens next year and you don’t have a respectable roster.  That doesn’t mean we should go all-in by any means, but the days of tanking should end the moment Eloy is up here.

Our position players by and large aren't here yet.  Our entire OF is a hole until Eloy gets here.  3B and DH are holes. Back up catcher is a hole. This group isn't ready even when Eloy gets here.

[Whisox05]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Damn man, try not to drown in me in so many details or information. 

Doesn't matter what I or anyone says, you just going to say it's going to take a miracle for them to win like getting hit by lightning lol

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, aeichhor said:

Doesn't matter what I or anyone says, you just going to say it's going to take a miracle for them to win like getting hit by lightning lol

Mostly because it would be! I can't fathom looking at a 62 win and thinking playoffs, especially after what we saw last year. 

[turnin' two]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You're 100% right the Sox should be better this season, if they're not then that means even more people got hurt and that is moving into disaster territory. Some of the guys they brought up should be better, and yes they should absolutely try to land an "Elite talent free agent". No one saying "They won't be competitive next year" is also saying "We should avoid Harper and Machado" as far as I can tell, we're saying that we should try our best to land one of them, at almost any cost, but even when we do that this roster is still too weak until our pitching and outfield reinforcements arrive. But treating "We won't be competitive next year" as us not wanting Harper or Machado, that is on the verge of a smear it's so wrong.

What we don't want to do is:

1. Waste resources that we want available in 2020 by signing weak pitchers or outfielders to multi year deals
2. Give up the kind of talent in trades it would take to build a legit roster if it would remove guys we could use in 2021 or guys that we could trade that offseason to fill our final holes.
3. Hear the team say they're going to be competitive right now again with a roster primed to win 75 games because of the lack of depth. 

So yes, we still need to pick up a Sonny Gray or a Drew Pomeranz, but the idea that those will be the guys who put us over the top compared to even Cleveland's rotation bugs me, the idea that these rotations are going to be competitive is laughable, and the idea that we're going to give up something useful for a player like Sonny Gray when there seems to be actual demand for him - ugh. 

1) I completely agree.  But while I am not Corbin's biggest fan, I don't think that applies to him.  He would be a solid number 2/3 on any team.  And if you are getting a SP on the market you are going to overpay.  That's the game.  And while I wouldn't pursue him with vigor, I understand why some want to do that.  I think the only OF I would pursue is Harper.  I get the love for and the need for Pollock, but the injury history scares me. 

2) Here, I think it depends.  You certainly don't trade to fill a hole on the 2019 roster, but if it fills a hole in 19-20-21, well that is a little bit different story.  

3) Again, I agree.  

 

Cleveland's rotation, right now, is about as good as you will find.  Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, Clevenger are a monstrous 1-2-3-4.  But if you remove Bauer or Kluber, well then it looks completely different.

[Whisox05]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Our position players by and large aren't here yet.  Our entire OF is a hole until Eloy gets here.  3B and DH are holes. Back up catcher is a hole. This group isn't ready even when Eloy gets here.

Yes the team currently can not compete right now but depending on how they fill those holes will tell which way they are going this offseason. But you can't sit around waiting for the prospect to get here. Sox can get those positions players here by signing them now depending on who they get

[Whisox05]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Mostly because it would be! I can't fathom looking at a 62 win and thinking playoffs, especially after what we saw last year. 

What we saw last year was the total bottom. Having an actual closer and more veteran pen help can be a big help to the team. Better pitchers then covey, Gonzalez, Santiago, shields and who ever else they through out there would improve. Eloy replacing delmonico/who ever rotated out should be a huge improvement. Depending on who they get to replace Engel and Garcia could be big improvements. Replacing Sanchez at 3rd could be a big improvement. All depends on who they get for the holes

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

Yes the team currently can not compete right now but depending on how they fill those holes will tell which way they are going this offseason. But you can't sit around waiting for the prospect to get here. Sox can get those positions players here by signing them now depending on who they get

There are two star players out there.  We are below average at so many positions right now, that doesn't plug nearly all of the holes.