White sox active in starting pitching market

[Chicago White Sox]

45 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Atlanta was #5 in the NL in ERA and Oakland was #6 in the AL in ERA. Literally out of the top 11 teams in ERA last year out of their full pitching staffs, you had 9 playoff teams. The only team to make the playoffs without an ERA under 3.81 was the Rockies, and the only 2 teams with top 11 pitching staffs to miss the playoffs were Arizona and Tampa Bay. 

So, if you want to talk about a playoff team, you better talk to me about a pitching staff in the top 1/3 of the league. 

This is just a ridiculous post.  The Braves & A’s were 13th & 17th in pitching fWAR last year respectively.  Throw in Cubs at 18th and your theory is completely bunk.  There isn’t some golden rule on the quality of a pitching staff to make the playoffs.  All a bad staff means is more pressure on your positional guys to produce big.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

What we saw last year was the total bottom. Having an actual closer and more veteran pen help can be a big help to the team. Better pitchers then covey, Gonzalez, Santiago, shields and who ever else they through out there would improve. Eloy replacing delmonico/who ever rotated out should be a huge improvement. Depending on who they get to replace Engel and Garcia could be big improvements. Replacing Sanchez at 3rd could be a big improvement. All depends on who they get for the holes

Ironically, we had an actual closer for about 2/3 of last season. But, even without counting the bullpen - you just mentioned 3b, CF, 2 starting pitcher spots, and one extra corner OF spot. Not only can you not fill all those on the FA market with any quality better than Mat Latos, but we ought to have learned many times over how likely the FA market is likely to betray you if you try to go after mid-level guys.

[pcq]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

So let's hear it how.  I have seen people this winter try to outline exactly how they could do it, and I have yet to see a convincing scenario.

If they sign a couple of quality FAs and have two prospects contribute they could compete. Yet they need to add about 25 wins to reach playoff status. Typically White Sox playoff runs are oners with no repeats. 

[fathom]

One of the biggest obstacles to competing is that some of the young guys they’re counting on in 2019 sucked in 2018 (Giolito’s stats are still almost hard to believe), while some of the guys that are gone were their best contributors (Shields, Omar).

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is just a ridiculous post.  The Braves & A’s were 13th & 17th in pitching fWAR last year respectively.  Throw in Cubs at 18th and your theory is completely bunk.  There isn’t some golden rule on the quality of a pitching staff to make the playoffs.  All a bad staff means is more pressure on your positional guys to produce big.

It's ridiculous and 100% true. In 2017, out of the top 11 teams in ERA, 8 made the playoffs, the only ones outside the top 11 - the Rockies again (ERA might not work the best there) and the Twins. 

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Our position players by and large aren't here yet.  Our entire OF is a hole until Eloy gets here.  3B and DH are holes. Back up catcher is a hole. This group isn't ready even when Eloy gets here.

Add Machado & McCutchen and suddenly the only holes we have on the positional side are CF & DH.  Backup catcher can be assessed on the cheap and provide similar overall production.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

It's ridiculous and 100% true. In 2017, out of the top 11 teams in ERA, 8 made the playoffs, the only ones outside the top 11 - the Rockies again (ERA might not work the best there) and the Twins. 

Wow, you’re sticking with ERA as a better indicator of pitching staff quality than fWAR.  You are literally the walking example of the dangers of people incorrectly using statistics to make any argument they want.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Add Machado & McCutchen and suddenly the only holes we have on the positional side are CF & DH.  Backup catcher can be assessed on the cheap and provide similar overall production.

This is not even close to a playoff pitching staff.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is not even close to a playoff pitching staff.

?  I didn’t mention anything about a potential pitching staff?

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

?  I didn’t mention anything about a potential pitching staff?

That's the whole point though.

You need a huge free agent signing. 

You need to fill half of the line up.

You need people to step up as 1/2 starters.

You need to find at least two more starters regardless. 

You need a closer and set up guys.

You need better health out of key guys.

You need young guys to almost all take huge leaps forward. 

Again,  what are the odds of ALL of that happening,  meanwhile everything else around us going right too?

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Wow, you’re sticking with ERA as a better indicator of pitching staff quality than fWAR.  You are literally the walking example of the dangers of people incorrectly using statistics to make any argument they want.

If you want to talk about fWAR, the White Sox put up 17.2 fWAR last year. Cleveland put up 50.3. The White Sox are down a couple by letting go of Davidson, Shields, Narvaez, and Soria, and up a little bit with the latest reliever. With McCutchen and Machado you have added 9. I'll even be generous and give you 5 for Eloy as a rookie, which hell he might do I don't think pitchers will like him. Now you have to come up with >20 more fWAR to even get in the neighborhood of the Tribe, and the 2 you wanted to sign there have pushed the payroll to $110 million.

So, if Moncada, Anderson, Giolito, Rodon, and Lopez all increase by 3 fWAR - making several of them all stars, we're still only in the low 40s, and need to rely on a miracle from whatever other pitchers we brought in.

fWAR illustrates the gap even more. This gap is enormous, it's a >$300 million a year gap. Progress doesn't even get you close - you need enormous jumps and great years from everyone.

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That's the whole point though.

You need a huge free agent signing. 

You need to fill half of the line up.

You need people to step up as 1/2 starters.

You need to find at least two more starters regardless. 

You need a closer and set up guys.

You need better health out of key guys.

You need young guys to almost all take huge leaps forward. 

Again,  what are the odds of ALL of that happening,  meanwhile everything else around us going right too?

Again, not everyone on the Braves took a huge leap.  All teams have some holes / weaknesses.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you want to talk about fWAR, the White Sox put up 17.2 fWAR last year. Cleveland put up 50.3. The White Sox are down a couple by letting go of Davidson, Shields, Narvaez, and Soria, and up a little bit with the latest reliever. With McCutchen and Machado you have added 9. I'll even be generous and give you 5 for Eloy as a rookie, which hell he might do I don't think pitchers will like him. Now you have to come up with >20 more fWAR to even get in the neighborhood of the Tribe, and the 2 you wanted to sign there have pushed the payroll to $110 million.

So, if Moncada, Anderson, Giolito, Rodon, and Lopez all increase by 3 fWAR - making several of them all stars, we're still only in the low 40s, and need to rely on a miracle from whatever other pitchers we brought in.

fWAR illustrates the gap even more. This gap is enormous, it's a >$300 million a year gap. Progress doesn't even get you close - you need enormous jumps and great years from everyone.

Great analysis.  There are additional moves to the pitching staff I would make that would hopefully help offset the gap.  You’re also assuming the Indians will automatically repeat last year’s performance.  That is a bold assumption given that they’ve already lost a couple key pieces, might trade one of their elite starters, and had near perfect health from all their stars last year.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Great analysis.  There are additional moves to the pitching staff I would make that would hopefully help offset the gap.  You’re also assuming the Indians will automatically repeat last year’s performance.  That is a bold assumption given that they’ve already lost a couple key pieces, might trade one of their elite starters, and had near perfect health from all their stars last year.

No I did not make that assumption, I got us into the low 40s with literally EVERYONE taking a huge leap and no one getting hurt, automatically assuming Cleveland did what they did last year would still leave us 10 games behind if all we did was count fWAR. 

But if you really want to get down to it - Cleveland underperformed last year dramatically. By pythagorean wins they should have been at 98. They wound up at 91 - in no small part because of the implosion of their bullpen. They were one of the "unluckiest" teams in the league based on statistics. So, you're assuming Cleveland will get worse because they lost Brantley and Gomes, but having their bullpen average out or even just having "Luck" average out would push them the other way.

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Again, not everyone on the Braves took a huge leap.  All teams have some holes / weaknesses.

The Braves only jumped 18 wins from 72 to 90. 18 more wins doesn't even get us to .500.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

No I did not make that assumption, I got us into the low 40s with literally EVERYONE taking a huge leap and no one getting hurt, automatically assuming Cleveland did what they did last year would still leave us 10 games behind if all we did was count fWAR. 

But if you really want to get down to it - Cleveland underperformed last year dramatically. By pythagorean wins they should have been at 98. They wound up at 91 - in no small part because of the implosion of their bullpen. They were one of the "unluckiest" teams in the league based on statistics. So, you're assuming Cleveland will get worse because they lost Brantley and Gomes, but having their bullpen average out or even just having "Luck" average out would push them the other way.

Which is why we were using fWAR in our theoretical and not W-L record?  Now you’re just arguing with yourself.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Braves only jumped 18 wins from 72 to 90. 18 more wins doesn't even get us to .500.

They also didn’t spend significantly in free agency.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Which is why we were using fWAR in our theoretical and not W-L record?  Now you’re just arguing with yourself.

So what pitchers are you going to find to make up 10 fWAR, and you're not allowed to spend more than $35 million because that hits $150.

[bschmaranz]

Something better happen soon, I think some of you guys are gonna murder eachother.

[caulfield12]

You're going to have a fall off in the bullpen from the Indians (but Allen wasn't that great last year)...sure, they trade one of their starters and then suffer from a rash of injuries, that's certainly possible (especially Santana).  You could certainly argue that rolling the dice like the 2007 White Sox did in the bullpen with a bunch of inexperienced guys and two veterans (Hand, the best) and you either get an implosion or everything miraculously clicks like the 2005 White Sox.

They're likely to get less out of Perez than Gomes at catcher, but Gomes has been inconsistent from year to year.

That said, there's no reason to think that Kipnis won't rebound, because he was absolutely miserable last year.  You lose Brantley, and his veteran presence will definitely be missed...you also can't be sure what Encarnacion has left in the tank at his age, but, no matter how you slice it, Lindor and Jose Ramirez alone can put up numbers close to the entire White Sox collective fWAR if you combine the two.  Alonso's another veteran bat in that line-up.

There's also the possibility of some of their young prospects making strides.  They're going to do much better than Greg Allen for 100ish games in the outfield again this year, no matter what they come up with.

 

 

Edited December 4, 2018 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So what pitchers are you going to find to make up 10 fWAR, and you're not allowed to spend more than $35 million because that hits $150.

Where are the 10 fWAR gap & $115M payroll coming from?  I’m going to need you to provide me with a walk.  But for the hell of it, I’ll say Corbin, Pomeranz, & Allen with Yolmer moved to clear some salary.

Edited December 4, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Where are the 10 fWAR gap & $115M payroll coming from?  I’m going to need you to provide me with a walk.  But for the hell of it, I’ll say Corbin, Pomeranz, & Allen with Yolmer moved to clear some salary.

We're now at $60 million after adding a $7 million reliever to a $52 million-ish team.

Add in Machado at $35 million and McCutchen at $15 million and we're at $110 million, so you've got about $35-ish in room to stay below $150.

Start at 17 fWAR last year, be generous and subtract 5 for the guys we've lost so far or for guys like Sanchez who are moved to the bench (they produced more than that),  add in 5 for Jiminez, Add in 9 for Machado + McCutchen if no falloff from either of them, then add the assumption that Anderson, Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, and Moncada each improve by 3 fWAR, taking huge jumps next year, and now we're at 41. You might be able to pick up 1-2 by not having as bad of guys in the bullpen as Fulmer and Danish, but that assumes all the rookies who get called up are still average, when I'd guess you'll see 1 or 2 relievers or backups implode at some point.

So, with the assumption that this is the best coached team in history and develops perfectly, I get to the low 40s if all 5 guys take 3 fWAR jumps next year, no one gets hurt, and that's 10 behind where Cleveland was last year in a year where their bullpen fell apart. 

If you added in Corbin, Pomeranz, and Allen - that almost works on payroll, but it leaves you still 4 fWAR to make up, again assuming they repeated last year, and again, the gigantic assumption of "here's 6 guys that all become 5 win players next year".

[ChiSoxFanMike]

The Indians lost Donaldson, will probably lose Allen, Miller, and Brantley, and might trade Kluber or Bauer. Those are significant losses, and given the Indians payroll situation, those free agent departures likely won't be replaced adequately. It's also debatable whether Lindor and Ramirez will be as good next year as they were in 2018.

I would be shocked if they were as good as they were last year. I think they're like an 85 win team at most in 2019.

Edited December 4, 2018 by Whitesox27

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

We're now at $60 million after adding a $7 million reliever to a $52 million-ish team.

Add in Machado at $35 million and McCutchen at $15 million and we're at $110 million, so you've got about $35-ish in room to stay below $150.

Start at 17 fWAR last year, be generous and subtract 5 for the guys we've lost so far or for guys like Sanchez who are moved to the bench (they produced more than that),  add in 5 for Jiminez, Add in 9 for Machado + McCutchen if no falloff from either of them, then add the assumption that Anderson, Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, and Moncada each improve by 3 fWAR, taking huge jumps next year, and now we're at 41. You might be able to pick up 1-2 by not having as bad of guys in the bullpen as Fulmer and Danish, but that assumes all the rookies who get called up are still average, when I'd guess you'll see 1 or 2 relievers or backups implode at some point.

So, with the assumption that this is the best coached team in history and develops perfectly, I get to the low 40s if all 5 guys take 3 fWAR jumps next year, no one gets hurt, and that's 10 behind where Cleveland was last year in a year where their bullpen fell apart. 

If you added in Corbin, Pomeranz, and Allen - that almost works on payroll, but it leaves you still 4 fWAR to make up, again assuming they repeated last year, and again, the gigantic assumption of "here's 6 guys that all become 5 win players next year".

I appreciate your effort here, but I’ll need to lay out my own projections because I’m still not fully following:

• 1B: Abreu - 2.5
• 2B: Moncada - 4.0
• SS: Anderson - 2.5
• 3B: Machado - 6.0
• LF: Jimenez - 3.5
• CF: Engel - 0.5
• RF: McCutchen - 2.5
• DH: Palka - 1.0
• CA: Castillo - 2.0
• Bench - 1.0
• Subtotal = 25.5

 

• #1: Corbin - 5.0
• #2: Rodon - 3.0
• #3: Lopez - 3.0
• #4: Pomeranz - 1.5
• #5: Giolito - 1.0
• Bullpen - 4.0
• Sub-total = 17.5 

That’s a projected total of 43 fWAR.  That makes us dangerous enough to compete with Cleveland IMO assuming some improvement from our young guys.  Not one of them has to be a “5 WAR star” next year like your post suggested.

[Jose Abreu]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I appreciate your effort here, but I’ll need to lay out my own projections because I’m still not fully following:

•  1B: Abreu - 2.5
• 2B: Moncada - 4.0
• SS: Anderson - 2.5
• 3B: Machado - 6.0
• LF: Jimenez - 3.5
• CF: Engel - 0.5
• RF: McCutchen - 2.5
• DH: Palka - 1.0
• CA: Castillo - 2.0
• Bench - 1.0
• Subtotal = 25.5

 

• #1: Corbin - 5.0
• #2: Rodon - 3.0
• #3: Lopez - 3.0
• #4: Pomeranz - 1.5
• #5: Giolito - 1.0
• Bullpen - 4.0
• Sub-total = 17.5 

That’s a projected total of 43 fWAR.  That makes us dangerous enough to compete with Cleveland IMO assuming some improvement from our young guys.  Not one of them has to be a “5 WAR star” next year like your post suggested.

The White Sox signing Machado, McCutchen, and Corbin yet still trotting out Adam Engel as the every day center fielder would be a travesty