White sox active in starting pitching market

[ChiSox59]

Sounds like Ryu is going to take the qualifying offer.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 hours ago, Whitesox27 said:

What kind of contract do you think Kikuchi will get? I don't know all that much about him.

I'm seeing his name bandied about a lot  as the type of guy the Sox should be going after . I totally disagree. He not all that young . He will turn 28 June 17. He is not all that healthy. He's had a lot of shoulder problems in the past and some last season and throws a lot of sliders.  Just the same kind of complaints we've seen about Corbin. Seems like a lot of Japanese pitcher break down once they reach the states or  a season or 2 after,

Key points from the dodgerdigest article.

Kikuchi’s posting is somewhat poorly timed, as he took a step back in 2018. His average fastball velocity backed off from 92.3 mph to 91.5 mph. His strikeout rate dropped over 6% to a more pedestrian (but still good for NPB) rate of 23.4%. Thanks to an increase in ground ball rate his ERA remained in the low 3s in the face of a potentially juiced baseball. Overall, not terrible, but not matching the potential he showed the year before.

Kikuchi’s velocity drop did not necessarily come without warning. He missed most of May with a mysterious case of “shoulder tightness.” The specific cause of the tightness was never really clarified (at least on English-language NPB websites). In the starts after his return, he struggled to hold his velocity throughout outings, sitting at about 93 in the early innings and fading towards 90 by the end of those stints. In the later months of the season the velocity returned, but the strikeouts never really followed.

The shoulder scare raises questions about Kikuchi’s durability. He made it through 2017 in good shape, but he has missed significant time in several other seasons. His shoulder was a concern in 2013, he missed time with finger blisters in 2014, and some of 2016 due to a “right side” injury. He missed the first few years after he was drafted with even more injury trouble. Another look at the previous video clips shows a high-effort delivery, adding to potential health concerns.

[Eminor3rd]

19 hours ago, Whitesox27 said:

What kind of contract do you think Kikuchi will get? I don't know all that much about him.

Unless the Medicals turn up something negative, or Yusei limits his market by preferring certain destinations, my opinion is that the MLBTR numbers are a bit low. I think the teams that like him think he’s a mid rotation starter and he will ultimately get will get paid like one  — 5 years at $12-15M a year. The mlbtr numbers might be more fair, but remember the winning bid is the outlier. 

FWIW - there is one industry executive I know that agrees with me. 

Personally, I’ve watched a lot of him over the past two seasons (10-15 starts), and I kind of think he ends up in a multi inning relief role who gets starts when someone is hurt. He just doesn’t seem to get to his top velocity very often, and I think he could benefit greatly from shorter outings where he can air it out. As a pure starter, I think he’s one of those guys who will dazzle at times and completely bomb at times and who ultimately averages out as a 3/4 guy. 

[southsider2k5]

26 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'm seeing his name bandied about a lot  as the type of guy the Sox should be going after . I totally disagree. He not all that young . He will turn 28 June 17. He is not all that healthy. He's had a lot of shoulder problems in the past and some last season and throws a lot of sliders.  Just the same kind of complaints we've seen about Corbin. Seems like a lot of Japanese pitcher break down once they reach the states or  a season or 2 after,

Key points from the dodgerdigest article.

Kikuchi’s posting is somewhat poorly timed, as he took a step back in 2018. His average fastball velocity backed off from 92.3 mph to 91.5 mph. His strikeout rate dropped over 6% to a more pedestrian (but still good for NPB) rate of 23.4%. Thanks to an increase in ground ball rate his ERA remained in the low 3s in the face of a potentially juiced baseball. Overall, not terrible, but not matching the potential he showed the year before.

Kikuchi’s velocity drop did not necessarily come without warning. He missed most of May with a mysterious case of “shoulder tightness.” The specific cause of the tightness was never really clarified (at least on English-language NPB websites). In the starts after his return, he struggled to hold his velocity throughout outings, sitting at about 93 in the early innings and fading towards 90 by the end of those stints. In the later months of the season the velocity returned, but the strikeouts never really followed.

The shoulder scare raises questions about Kikuchi’s durability. He made it through 2017 in good shape, but he has missed significant time in several other seasons. His shoulder was a concern in 2013, he missed time with finger blisters in 2014, and some of 2016 due to a “right side” injury. He missed the first few years after he was drafted with even more injury trouble. Another look at the previous video clips shows a high-effort delivery, adding to potential health concerns.

I know nothing about the guy, but this right here is enough to red flag him for me, especially when you add in that lots of Japanese pitchers have trouble adjusting to the American pitching schedule.

[Whisox05]

"4. Corbin is the top pitcher available. He probably won't sign first.

 

Every year, industry observers wonder if the No. 1 free-agent starter will set the market's upper boundary by signing early. That's not likely to happen with Corbin this autumn.

Two teams with significant capacity to add payroll -- the Phillies and White Sox -- have interest in Corbin. But they're also involved in the Harper and Machado pursuits, meaning they may wait for the superstar position players to go off the board before determining exactly how much they can spend on Corbin.

Meanwhile, the markets for Nathan Eovaldi and J.A. Happ are developing more rapidly. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels, Brewers, Phillies and Astros are among the teams known to have interest in Happ, sources say."

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I’m one of the bigger supporters of adding a starting pitcher to a multi-year deal on this board and even I don’t understand the logic behind adding Corbin.  Just too expensive / risky of an option for us at this stage.

[Whisox05]

Will see if the Sox are still interested 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, aeichhor said:

Will see if the Sox are still interested 

I don't think the Sox are involved with Corbin, whether that is do to his lack of interest or the Sox.  He did his eastcoast tour of teams last week and speculation is he will sign soon, and there has been virtually no recent mention of the Sox. 

He is signing with Philly or more likely the Yanks.   

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I imagine the White Sox are one of “those trying to pull an upset”

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't think the Sox are involved with Corbin, whether that is do to his lack of interest or the Sox.  He did his eastcoast tour of teams last week and speculation is he will sign soon, and there has been virtually no recent mention of the Sox. 

He is signing with Philly or more likely the Yanks.   

I think it will be the Yankees or Nationals.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Bigsoxhurt35 said:

I imagine the White Sox are one of “those trying to pull an upset”

I think the Sox are operating in that next tier with guys like Happ, Eovaldi, etc.

Edited December 3, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I don't want Corbin. Happ and someone like Matt Shoemaker is fine with me.

[southsider2k5]

At this stage, I am OK with the Sox just chasing down a couple of innings eaters.

[Whisox05]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

At this stage, I am OK with the Sox just chasing down a couple of innings eaters.

I think the sox want one innings eater like shields did but also multi year player for other spot. Problem is don't know if rodon can stay healthy and which version of giolito you are getting. Plus if rodon can stay healthy and pitch well can use as trade bait down the line

[Whisox05]

17 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

I don't want Corbin. Happ and someone like Matt Shoemaker is fine with me.

Corbin is going to be more expensive but just worry about happ already being 36 and getting a multi year deal

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

If the Mariners are trading anyone with 3+ years of service time, why not ask for Mike Leake? A sinkerballer coming off of a "meh" year who could use a change of scenery.

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

I think the sox want one innings eater like shields did but also multi year player for other spot. Problem is don't know if rodon can stay healthy and which version of giolito you are getting. Plus if rodon can stay healthy and pitch well can use as trade bait down the line

That is why you play 2019 out.  Once the Sox decide they are in a position to win, then we can talk about pitching on the free agent market at a top level.  As of now, no need.  Honestly there would be a decent chance by the time we were in a position to be good, that contract would be a weight on the team.

[he gone.]

18 minutes ago, Charlie Haeger's Knuckles said:

If the Mariners are trading anyone with 3+ years of service time, why not ask for Mike Leake? A sinkerballer coming off of a "meh" year who could use a change of scenery.

Because you can get the same production out of Fiers, Shoemaker, etc. for a lot cheaper. Leake makes $15mm a year or so and pitches a 4era ball. He'll get you a 185 innings of okay ball as a 5 starter. You can do that with Shields for a lot less money. Shoemaker is never healthy, but his FIP is generally better when healthy.

 

Only way you take any sort of flier on a Leake IMO is if they tie in a prospect of some sort or some useful piece. Even at that, I'd pass on Leake. We just rid ourselves of Shields. Don't want another dead weight contract.

 

I'm up to exploring all options on Seattle though.

[Whisox05]

18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That is why you play 2019 out.  Once the Sox decide they are in a position to win, then we can talk about pitching on the free agent market at a top level.  As of now, no need.  Honestly there would be a decent chance by the time we were in a position to be good, that contract would be a weight on the team.

Maybe the sox feel they can start to win now. There's always a need for starting pitching. Look at kopech. Dunning was close to surgery, Hansen got injured and took a step back. Again not nowing with rodon. How would the contract be a weight on a team when they barely have a payroll as it is and getting smaller each year 

[southsider2k5]

Just now, aeichhor said:

Maybe the sox feel they can start to win now. There's always a need for starting pitching. Look at kopech. Dunning was close to surgery, Hansen got injured and took a step back. Again not nowing with rodon. How would the contract be a weight on a team when they barely have a payroll as it is and getting smaller each year 

Then they need to layoff of the drugs.

[Whisox05]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Then they need to layoff of the drugs.

Have you seen the AL. Most of the central teams are rebuilding plus the Indians might retool. Seattle just started a tear down. Not sure Oakland can maintain with the pitching staff. Still one wild card spot open and could be also be division 

[ChiSox1917]

Not a fan of giving a long term deal to a fa pitcher.  Get one innings eater and then give stephens and adams a chance at some point this upcoming year

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

Have you seen the AL. Most of the central teams are rebuilding plus the Indians might retool. Seattle just started a tear down. Not sure Oakland can maintain with the pitching staff. Still one wild card spot open and could be also be division 

Have you seen the White Sox?  The team that just won 62 games last year?  There is no realistic solution for 2019 that is going to gain them the 30 to 35 needed to win this division.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

I really hope not. 

Didn’t say I hoped it was happening lol

[Whisox05]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Have you seen the White Sox?  The team that just won 62 games last year?  There is no realistic solution for 2019 that is going to gain them the 30 to 35 needed to win this division.

Will depend on what they do this offseason. Apparently the sox think they can do better otherwise why trade for colome plus be looking for starting pitching and more bullpen up plus now need to replace avi. They could have just kept avi and Davidson and ran out the kids they added to the pen and see what's happens 

Edited December 3, 2018 by aeichhor