White sox active in starting pitching market

[ChiSoxFanMike]

I don't see the Sox signing Corbin, but I like where your head is at. Even if they got JA Happ instead, I still like their chances to compete in this division. I think this team will benefit greatly from having no expectations as well as Eloy's arrival early in the season.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

The White Sox signing Machado, McCutchen, and Corbin yet still trotting out Adam Engel as the every day center fielder would be a travesty

I 100% agree but Balta told me I was at $150M and I didn’t have the energy to check the math.  Additionally, I did not feel compelled to put Moncada in CF since no one believes that’s a possibility.

[caulfield12]

Just between Allen and Miller slumping last year (ended up at 0.4 collectively)...the Indians lost roughly 3.5 - 4.0 fWAR.

So we're not chasing the 2016-2018 Indians' pen, we're chasing a pen that was terrible and has lots of room for improvement.

Whereas our pen, at best, is about even with they were (as it currently stands) at the beginning of last season.  Colome SHOULD make a big difference, but Fry has to repeat, and we traded away a number of pretty solid veterans.  Jones' health is always up in the air, Burdi has a LONG way to go to be a reliable back end option and our rookies took their lumps.

Sure, it could all come together like the 2012 staff with 10+ rookie pitchers being used at various times...but anyone want to predict the odds of a repeat?

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I 100% agree but Balta told me I was at $150M and I didn’t have the energy to check the math.  Additionally, I did not feel compelled to put Moncada in CF since no one believes that’s a possibility.

If we're doing ALL that, you might as well go all out and add another name like Adam Jones or trade for someone like Mallex Smith...or bring in Billy Hamilton.

The question is are we simply following the Twins' model of trying to jump start things a year or two prematurely (mostly, their acquisitions were on the veteran pitching side 4-5 years ago, then the bargain-basement diving in February/March last year, such as Lynn and Morrison).

Edited December 4, 2018 by caulfield12

[Two-Gun Pete]

53 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

• 2B: Moncada - 4.0
• LF: Jimenez - 3.5
• DH: Palka - 1.0
• CA: Castillo - 2.0

 

• #1: Corbin - 5.0
• #2: Rodon - 3.0
• #3: Lopez - 3.0
• Bullpen - 4.0

While this is a lively discussion, I think I agree that the 2019 White Sox are unlikely to be able to compete, regardless of what happens.

The projections from your post I left inserted all seem a bit far-fetched:

Moncada had to go on a miraculous BaBIP-driven Sept/Oct to get to 2.0 fWAR last year, and somehow NEXT year he'll be a better player than Zobrist?

Jimenez won't have an adjustment period, as 99.99% of White Sox prospects seem to have?

Castillo's best year in the past 4 was 2.7 fWAR with Baltimore, and likely on the juice. He's going to do 2.0 fWAR without the juice at 31 years old?

On Palka, there isn't a 1.0 or higher fWAR in the league with a K rate above 27% among qualified DHs, and that was by Stanton in NY. Back of the envelope arithmetic, he'd have to cut ~7% off his K rate, add ~3-4% to his BB rate, hit >30 HR, and score ~70-80 runs to get to 1.0 fWAR or higher as a full time DH.

 

On the pitching staff, I simply don't see Rodon being healthy/fit enough, nor being consistent enough with his FB location to get to 3.0 fWAR; Lopez's peripherals suggest he's probably closer to a 1.0 fWAR/due for serious regression in 2019. [Seriously, feast your eyes on his FIP this year.]

 On Corbin, the NL-to-AL thing, coupled with new money seem like a stretch for him to get to 5.0 fWAR. I wonder if he was on a contract year/career year performance in 2018, and will likely be due for a ton of regression in 2019.

 

Overall, I like the optimism, but it was irrational exuberance that led to this org being mired in mediocrity for a decade. This is NOT to state that a whale shouldn't be landed, if possible. I just don't think that there's enough here to compete in 2019. And that's OK; we can cheer for Moncada to K less, Jimenez to fit in, and the younger pitchers to step up next season. YMMV.

Edited December 4, 2018 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If we're doing ALL that, you might as well go all out and add another name like Adam Jones or trade for someone like Mallex Smith...or bring in Billy Hamilton.

The question is are we simply following the Twins' model of trying to jump start things a year or two prematurely (mostly, their acquisitions were on the veteran pitching side 4-5 years ago, then the bargain-basement diving in February/March last year, such as Lynn and Morrison).

Again, I fully agree, although I’d rather not trade for a CF with Robert, Basabe, etc. a year or two out.  But maybe we can move Yolmer for his OF equivalent.

[Two-Gun Pete]

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

 The question is are we simply following the Twins' model of trying to jump start things a year or two prematurely.

I kinda hope not.

I hope that this FO is merely seeing a rare opportunity to add a young star to accelerate the process, and NOT them having the same stupid thought process that gave us the 2009 - 2016 turd festival we all got to enjoy. Adding Machado/Harper =/= trying to compete. But adding Machado/Harper, and then trying to piece it together with duct tape, smoke, mirrors, and hope are kinda where we were: With a studs 'n scrubs roster and little depth.

As the roster Chicagowhitesox constructed showed, at some point you run out of money, and there's Adam Engel's craptacular bat taking a giant shit on the rest of the roster.

[fathom]

Corbin seems like a lock for the Yanks, and the contract is going to be ridiculous.  It feels like this offseason is when your favorite college hoops team is recruiting a player and Duke (NYY) and Kentucky (Phillies) are involved.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

While this is a lively discussion, I think I agree that the 2019 White Sox are unlikely to be able to compete, regardless of what happens.

The projections from your post I left inserted all seem a bit far-fetched:

Moncada had to go on a miraculous BaBIP-driven Sept/Oct to get to 2.0 fWAR last year, and somehow NEXT year he'll be a better player than Zobrist?

Jimenez won't have an adjustment period, as 99.99% of White Sox prospects?

Castillo's best year in the past 4 was 2.7 fWAR with Baltimore, and likely on the juice. He's going to do 2.0 fWAR without the juice at 31 years old?

On Palka, there isn't a 1.0 or higher fWAR in the league with a K rate above 29.9%, and that was by Stanton in NY.

 

On the pitching staff, I simply don't see Rodon being healthy/fit enough, nor being consistent enough with his FB location to get to 3.0 fWAR; Lopez's peripherals suggest he's probably closer to a 1.0 fWAR/due for serious regression in 2019. On Corbin, the NL-to-AL thing, coupled with new money seem like a stretch.

 

Overall, I like the optimism, but it was irrational exuberance that led to being mired in mediocrity for a decade. This is NOT to state that a whale shouldn't be landed, if possible. I just don't think that there's enough here to compete in 2019. And that's OK; we can cheer for Moncada to K less, Jimenez to fit in, and the younger pitchers to step up next season. YMMV.

We’ll have to agree to disagree on the projections for the young guys.  I’ll admit I have some cause for concern with Rodon, but if we don’t believe he’ll put up 3 WAR next year then he should be traded for whatever we can get for him right now.  That being said, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt now that he’s a full year removed from shoulder surgery.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, fathom said:

Corbin seems like a lock for the Yanks, and the contract is going to be ridiculous.  It feels like this offseason is when your favorite college hoops team is recruiting a player and Duke (NYY) and Kentucky (Phillies) are involved.

I think you’re giving Philly too much credit.  Outside of money, they aren’t the most attractive of destinations.  Heyman’s recent article mentioned Harper not being thrilled with the idea of living in Philadelphia.  The Yankees are the real threat if they want to be as every big free agent apparently loves NYC and grew up a Yankees fan.

[Two-Gun Pete]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ll admit I have some cause for concern with Rodon, but if we don’t believe he’ll put up 3 WAR next year then he should be traded for whatever we can get for him right now.  That being said, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt now that he’s a full year removed from shoulder surgery.

Sure. On Rodon, the health/his willingness to not show up to Camelback as a fat fuck is just part of the barriers between where he is NOW and what he could/should be.

The other part of his issue to become a top performer is the same thing I've thought about him since 2015:

He's inconsistent with his FB location, leading him to be unable to use the slider, making him predictable/hittable all to often, while he also walks the yard. When he has his annual ~5-10 game location renaissance, we all have to read how he's going to be a Cy Young award winner, then he goes back to walking the yard thereafter. Lamentably, its been the same old, inconsistent story for him since he's arrived here.

 

Now, I hope he "finally puts it all together," but I think we've all seen this movie over and over and over and over again, unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong, and he becomes what we all hope he can be.

Edited December 4, 2018 by Two-Gun Pete

[fathom]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think you’re giving Philly too much credit.  Outside of money, they aren’t the most attractive of destinations.  Heyman’s recent article mentioned Harper not being thrilled with the idea of living in Philadelphia.  The Yankees are the real threat if they want to be as every big free agent apparently loves NYC and grew up a Yankees fan.

I think Bryce goes to Yankees/Cubs/Nats/Phillies in that order.   Manny is Phillies/Yankees/WSox.  The reason the Phillies are such a threat is that they seem to be willing to be reckless with their spending and seem determined to land one of the two guys. They have the best chance of pulling an ARod/Rangers and just blowing other offers away.

Edited December 4, 2018 by fathom

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, fathom said:

I think Bryce goes to Yankees/Cubs/Nats/Phillies in that order.   Manny is Phillies/Yankees/WSox.  The reason the Phillies are such a threat is that they seem to be willing to be reckless with their spending and seem determined to land one of the two guys. They have the best chance of pulling an ARod/Rangers and just blowing other offers away.

The Cubs have zero chance at Harper unless they can pawn Heyward on Dipoto.  I still don’t see how the Yankees are a fit for Bryce.  As for the Phillies, while their owner is eager to spend, their front office is rumored to be a bit nervous at the theoretical prices for the whales.  I still think Philly will land one of these guys, but the owner will have to ignore the wishes of his front to pull an A-Rod/Rangers.

[Jose Abreu]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think you’re giving Philly too much credit.  Outside of money, they aren’t the most attractive of destinations.  Heyman’s recent article mentioned Harper not being thrilled with the idea of living in Philadelphia.  The Yankees are the real threat if they want to be as every big free agent apparently loves NYC and grew up a Yankees fan.

I agree with this. The White Sox were a better second half team than the Phillies by record, for example, so the idea that they're some lock for the playoffs and we're stagnant in last place is just flat-out wrong. And while they have plenty of money to spend, we have more of it. Not to mention Chicago > Philadelphia. Obviously, it's unknown whether we're actually going to spend the money, but it sure is there

[ChiSox1917]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I appreciate your effort here, but I’ll need to lay out my own projections because I’m still not fully following:

• 1B: Abreu - 2.5
• 2B: Moncada - 4.0
• SS: Anderson - 2.5
• 3B: Machado - 6.0
• LF: Jimenez - 3.5
• CF: Engel - 0.5
• RF: McCutchen - 2.5
• DH: Palka - 1.0
• CA: Castillo - 2.0
• Bench - 1.0
• Subtotal = 25.5

 

• #1: Corbin - 5.0
• #2: Rodon - 3.0
• #3: Lopez - 3.0
• #4: Pomeranz - 1.5
• #5: Giolito - 1.0
• Bullpen - 4.0
• Sub-total = 17.5 

That’s a projected total of 43 fWAR.  That makes us dangerous enough to compete with Cleveland IMO assuming some improvement from our young guys.  Not one of them has to be a “5 WAR star” next year like your post suggested.

Moncada as 4 WAR player next year would be huge.  I don't think I share that optimism.  Agree with most of the other predictions though

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I appreciate your effort here, but I’ll need to lay out my own projections because I’m still not fully following:

• 1B: Abreu - 2.5                  1b Alonso 0.7
• 2B: Moncada - 4.0            2b Kipnis  2.1 
• SS: Anderson - 2.5           SS Lindor 7.6
• 3B: Machado - 6.0           3b Ramirez 8.0
• LF: Jimenez - 3.5               LF Brantley 3.5
• CF: Engel - 0.5                   CF Naquin 0.3
• RF: McCutchen - 2.5         RF Chisenhall 0.8
• DH: Palka - 1.0                  DH Encarnacion 1.0
• CA: Castillo - 2.0               CA Gomes 2.2
• Bench - 1.0                        
• Subtotal = 25.5

 

• #1: Corbin - 5.0                 #1 Bauer 6.1
• #2: Rodon - 3.0                  #2 Kluber 5.6
• #3: Lopez - 3.0                   #3 Carrasco 5.3
• #4: Pomeranz - 1.5            #4 Clevinger 4.3
• #5: Giolito - 1.0                  #5 Bieber 2.8
• Bullpen - 4.0                         Bullpen 0.4 
• Sub-total = 17.5 

That’s a projected total of 43 fWAR.  That makes us dangerous enough to compete with Cleveland IMO assuming some improvement from our young guys.  Not one of them has to be a “5 WAR star” next year like your post suggested.

What you haven't realized is that you did a number of gimmicks to make the White Sox look better. You compared Cleveland's "Yearly total last year" with a sum over the starting players, but that misses something important. I played the same game in the right hand column and Cleveland looks a couple WAR better, for a specific reason. Carson Fulmer isn't in your list. Josh Tomlin isn't in your list. You gave the White Sox's bench 1 WAR, but the White Sox's bench didn't produce that last year. You gave the White Sox's rotation 17.5, but if you counted the couple of spot starts for whoever comes up, the total rotation number won't be as high as you get to by only adding up the biggest guys. Guys like Tilson, Cordell - guys who came up and filled time, altogether they were worth -3 WAR. Yes, you'd have a little less of them playing if Sanchez was on the bench, but when people get hurt, it's those kind of guys who come up. Cleveland has some of them too - Roberto Perez, Eric Haase, Rajai Davis - if you only count the top producing guys you get to ignore those guys, and you artificially make your list look better. You did that for the White Sox, but not for the native American stereotypes. So when you compared the line by line with the "total Cleveland team", you made the White Sox look artificially better and Cleveland look worse. 

Similarly, the White Sox's bullpen was in the upper 1/2 of the league last year in WAR, but 1/3 of that was Soria, and the White Sox had a worse xFIP than Cleveland's bullpen last year, by a lot. So if you're granting the White Sox 4 fWAR, you should grant Cleveland the same thing, and that makes Cleveland look worse again.

Finally, you do subtle things like give Engel 0.5 fWAR, when he was worth 0.2 fWAR last year, -0.8 fWAR the year before, and split time with guys like Cordell. You've pretty much assumed that literally every single guy on the White Sox's roster will be better next year than last - literally every one. No one gets hurt, nothing goes wrong. When you counted Cleveland's team total, you included all their injuries or guys who struggled, but you didn't include any of those things for the White Sox. 

Altogether, you've made this team look artificially better/Cleveland look artificially worse by about 5 fWAR, give or take again. 

[caulfield12]

https://waitingfornextyear.com/2018/07/cleveland-indians-have-the-worst-outfield-in-baseball/

Let’s not forget the Indians pretty much had the worst OF (with Brantley) in baseball, not counting the Sox.

While everyone is already counting on Jimenez for 4-5 war, the Indians should be getting Zimmer back, they can try Yandy Diaz...they can also get virtually any top OF prospect back for Kluber and also theoretically have the ability to sign a Brantley replacement (Pollock, McCutcheon, Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz, CarGo, Markakis, etc.)  

Yet another option would be putting Jason Kipnis out there.

Edited December 4, 2018 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

What you haven't realized is that you did a number of gimmicks to make the White Sox look better. You compared Cleveland's "Yearly total last year" with a sum over the starting players, but that misses something important. I played the same game in the right hand column and Cleveland looks a couple WAR better, for a specific reason. Carson Fulmer isn't in your list. Josh Tomlin isn't in your list. You gave the White Sox's bench 1 WAR, but the White Sox's bench didn't produce that last year. You gave the White Sox's rotation 17.5, but if you counted the couple of spot starts for whoever comes up, the total rotation number won't be as high as you get to by only adding up the biggest guys. Guys like Tilson, Cordell - guys who came up and filled time, altogether they were worth -3 WAR. Yes, you'd have a little less of them playing if Sanchez was on the bench, but when people get hurt, it's those kind of guys who come up. Cleveland has some of them too - Roberto Perez, Eric Haase, Rajai Davis - if you only count the top producing guys you get to ignore those guys, and you artificially make your list look better. You did that for the White Sox, but not for the native American stereotypes. So when you compared the line by line with the "total Cleveland team", you made the White Sox look artificially better and Cleveland look worse. 

Similarly, the White Sox's bullpen was in the upper 1/2 of the league last year in WAR, but 1/3 of that was Soria, and the White Sox had a worse xFIP than Cleveland's bullpen last year, by a lot. So if you're granting the White Sox 4 fWAR, you should grant Cleveland the same thing, and that makes Cleveland look worse again.

Finally, you do subtle things like give Engel 0.5 fWAR, when he was worth 0.2 fWAR last year, -0.8 fWAR the year before, and split time with guys like Cordell. You've pretty much assumed that literally every single guy on the White Sox's roster will be better next year than last - literally every one. No one gets hurt, nothing goes wrong. When you counted Cleveland's team total, you included all their injuries or guys who struggled, but you didn't include any of those things for the White Sox. 

Altogether, you've made this team look artificially better/Cleveland look artificially worse by about 5 fWAR, give or take again. 

My projections were never meant to be a 50/50 outcome.  They lean on the side of optimism, but the point of the exercise (which you missed) was the six young guys do not all need to become “5 WAR stars” for us to be competitive like you suggested.  If you want to shave off a few points for the AAA reinforcements that’s fine, but that’s not going to be worth five wins unless we experience significant injuries and my plan always assumed reasonably good health.  So let’s call it a 40 fWAR team.  I think that makes us a decent enough threat to the Indians.

[SCCWS]

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I appreciate your effort here, but I’ll need to lay out my own projections because I’m still not fully following:

• 1B: Abreu - 2.5
• 2B: Moncada - 4.0
• SS: Anderson - 2.5
• 3B: Machado - 6.0
• LF: Jimenez - 3.5
• CF: Engel - 0.5
• RF: McCutchen - 2.5
• DH: Palka - 1.0
• CA: Castillo - 2.0
• Bench - 1.0
• Subtotal = 25.5

 

• #1: Corbin - 5.0
• #2: Rodon - 3.0
• #3: Lopez - 3.0
• #4: Pomeranz - 1.5
• #5: Giolito - 1.0
• Bullpen - 4.0
• Sub-total = 17.5 

That’s a projected total of 43 fWAR.  That makes us dangerous enough to compete with Cleveland IMO assuming some improvement from our young guys.  Not one of them has to be a “5 WAR star” next year like your post suggested.

Really good work. creative roster. My only complaint is that I would say you have put some WAR values very high on a few players.  If you put their average WAR numbers for their careers, it might be more realistic. For example, I can see Anderson a 3 but you have Moncada going from a 2 to a 4. Machado and Corbin at 6 would be high based on their performance last year. Rodon would be also having a decent  bump up. I love Jimenez but 3.5 is a very good 1st year. I would probably shave off 6-7 WAR overall. But who knows how this will play out. 

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

Really good work. creative roster. My only complaint is that I would say you have put some WAR values very high on a few players.  If you put their average WAR numbers for their careers, it might be more realistic. For example, I can see Anderson a 3 but you have Moncada going from a 2 to a 4. Machado and Corbin at 6 would be high based on their performance last year. Rodon would be also having a decent  bump up. I love Jimenez but 3.5 is a very good 1st year. I would probably shave off 6-7 WAR overall. But who knows how this will play out. 

Thanks.  I personally feel pretty strongly about Yoan being a 4 win player next year and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s even better than that.  I truly believe he was rushed and a guy like him, who was able to succeed in the minors on talent alone, needed to experience failure at the major league in order to make the right adjustments.  There’s no denying his physical abilities, but I’m generally impressed by his work ethic, which is evident by him going to Arizona this offseason and working with Renteria & Steverson on his hitting.

As for Corbin, I shaved over a full point off his 2017 WAR.  For Machado, I don’t believe using career averages for a guy just hitting his prime and believe he could be a 7 win player next year at 3B, but decided to shave off a point.  For Eloy, I simply took Steamer’s projection and bumped it up slightly to account for a quicker promotion and the general conservatism it has for young players.

With Rodon it all comes down to health and my entire premise is based on relatively good health for the team.  If he makes 30 starts next year, he should easily be a 3 win pitcher IMO with the upside for more.  And that’s a key point here.  I personally think Lopez could be a 4 win pitcher next year.  I agree that Anderson could be a 3 win player with some moderate improvement with the bat along with his 2nd half defense showing up for the full season.  People keep looking at the downside, but I’d argue there is still potential upside in my projections and those can potentially cover for areas of underperformance.

[Wanne]

13 hours ago, fathom said:

I think Bryce goes to Yankees/Cubs/Nats/Phillies in that order.   Manny is Phillies/Yankees/WSox.  The reason the Phillies are such a threat is that they seem to be willing to be reckless with their spending and seem determined to land one of the two guys. They have the best chance of pulling an ARod/Rangers and just blowing other offers away.

you wonder how serious Manny is about playing SS and with the trade of Segura to the Phils...it's cooled him on them?

[Sockin]

 

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, Wanne said:

you wonder how serious Manny is about playing SS and with the trade of Segura to the Phils...it's cooled him on them?

$300 million has a way of saying lining up at 3B isn’t so bad.

[ptatc]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

$300 million has a way of saying lining up at 3B isn’t so bad.

On MLB radio this morning the report was that they would move Segura to second to keep Machado at SS, in order to sign him.

[ChiSox59]

Corbin isn't signing with the Sox.  It isn't even worth discussing.  He's a childhood Yankee fan, he is from NY and the Yankees are interested.  He's going to be a Yankee.