Corbin has become top target

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Does anyone really believe Patrick Corbin is the signing that would convince one of these guys the Sox are on their way?

 

Who knows if this tweet is even accurate, but if it is, as Geddy Lee once sang, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

I guess I don’t get your point here.  How is this remotely similar to anything we’ve done in the past?

[steveno89]

10 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I think that if he stays healthy, Corbin can pitch like a #2 for another year or so. I just don’t see any way it goes beyond that. Spending $100M on that right now would be unjustifiably insane for the White Sox. 

I'm sure the Sox are interested, but I doubt they end up signing Corbin given the lack of starting pitching available in free agency right now. Contenders like the Yankees and Astros should be all over him. 

I think 5/100 with an opt out after year two or three will end up being what Corbin signs for. Not sure if that is a deal we should make or not, but I'm open to considering it.

[Dick Allen]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I guess I don’t get your point here.  How is this remotely similar to anything we’ve done in the past?

The original post said Corbin was the top priority. That means all the Machado/Harper stuff was BS. Then they "go for it" signing a 38 year old DH, and hoping against hope about 10 guys turn it around. It's been their blueprint for 12 years when they want to call themselves contenders. A woefully short roster, hoping for the best.

Edited November 8, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The original post said Corbin was the top priority. That means all the Machado/Harper stuff was BS. Then they "go for it" signing a 38 year old DH, and hoping against hope about 10 guys turn it around. It's been their blueprint for 12 years when they want to call themselves contenders. A woefully short roster, hoping for the best.

But these are all just rumors, coming from a variety of sources.  This one in particular is from a no one.  I think we should all wait and see how things shake out, because at this point it’s impossible to say what’s real or not.

[SoxBlanco]

19 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The original post said Corbin was the top priority. That means all the Machado/Harper stuff was BS. Then they "go for it" signing a 38 year old DH, and hoping against hope about 10 guys turn it around. It's been their blueprint for 12 years when they want to call themselves contenders. A woefully short roster, hoping for the best.

The original post is saying he is the top priority "so far".  It does not mean we are not going after Machado/Harper.

[Dick Allen]

Just now, SoxBlanco said:

The original post is saying he is the top priority "so far".  It does not mean we are not going after Machado/Harper.

You can spin it how you would like, but top priority to me considering these guys are all free agents and theoretically could sign a contract today, would mean the others are not top priority. 

[Chisoxfn]

24 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The original post said Corbin was the top priority. That means all the Machado/Harper stuff was BS. Then they "go for it" signing a 38 year old DH, and hoping against hope about 10 guys turn it around. It's been their blueprint for 12 years when they want to call themselves contenders. A woefully short roster, hoping for the best.

If they went Corbin, Donaldson, Cruz and two other guys, would that be that bad of a move, presuming you went short-term on almost everyone. I don't like long-term deals to pitchers so it wouldn't be my path, but I don't really mind signing a bunch of guys to shorter-term deals and not tying up all your cap space.  How did it work for the Rangers when they signed Arod to all that money?  The only reason I can somewhat get on board is the team has literally so few payroll committments, but if either guy blows up and isn't productive...that is a huge albatross of a contract.  

[SoxBlanco]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

You can spin it how you would like, but top priority to me considering these guys are all free agents and theoretically could sign a contract today, would mean the others are not top priority. 

I'm not trying to spin anything, and I agree with what you are saying, but I'm just stating what I think the tweet meant. I wouldn't have worded it like that myself, but that's what I think he meant. 

Do you really think Corbin is a higher priority than Machado/Harper?

[Dick Allen]

Just now, SoxBlanco said:

I'm not trying to spin anything, and I agree with what you are saying, but I'm just stating what I think the tweet meant. I wouldn't have worded it like that myself, but that's what I think he meant. 

Do you really think Corbin is a higher priority than Machado/Harper?

I don't have the slightest idea. I don't know these guys on twitter. I hope not. But I guess in the end, order of priority doesn't matter. Who you add does.

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

39 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You want pitchers?  Go out and trade guys for Gray that have three years in their prime at much more affordable prices. 

At any rate, to answer your question, there was a domino effect with LaRoche, Robertson and Cabrera, but those were still Tier 2 guys...not the cream of the crop.   Same with Frazier or Samardzija.   

So you would have the Sox trade their young controllable assets for a pitcher with 3 years of control, or whom are you trading for Gray?

 

When have the Sox actually gone out and signed Top available free agents? Albert Belle? Jose Abreu? Is that it?

 

Personally I'm leery of signing Corbin because there are major red flags: Tommy John in 2014, velocity down at the beginning of the year this year, slider usage way up, one season over 3.5 fWAR in his career doesn't translate to a 5 year $100 mill+ deal for me, is his elbow a ticking time bomb? I'm not going to complain if the Sox show that they are willing to spend on top free agents and sign some though, in fact I would welcome it. It's something they haven't done in a long time. The payroll is low now with barely any $ tied up long term, they have talent in the minors waiting in the wings, at what point do the Sox start adding pieces via free agency to help them compete for the playoffs and more in the 2020-2023 time frame?

 

The 2014 off season they signed:

LaRoche was signed for 2 years 25 mill. He accumulated 6.4 fWAR over the previous 5 seasons. He was 35 when he signed. It was a dumb signing.

Cabrera was signed for 3 years 42 mill. He accumulated 11.3 fWAR over the previous 5 seasons. He was 30 when he signed, and had multiple instances of PED use.

Robertson was signed for 4 years 46 mill. He accumulated 8.1fWAR over the previous 5 seasons. He was 29 when he signed, and lived up to his contract value.

 

The top Pitching Free Agents (pitchers that signed for $100 million or more) in 2013 were:

Masahiro Tanaka (age the next season after he signed as a FA 26). He got 7 years 155 mill, he has been worth 15.5 fWAR so far in that contract.

 

The top Pitching Free Agents (pitchers that signed for $100 million or more) in 2014 were:

Max Scherzer (31). He had accumulated 21.6 fWAR over the previous 5 seasons. He got 7 years 210 mill, he has been worth 25.4 fWAR so far in that contract.

Jon Lester (31). He had accumulated 19.1 fWAR over the previous 5 seasons. He got 6 years 155 mill, he has been worth 13.4 fWAR so far in that contract.

 

The top Pitching Free Agents in 2015 (pitchers that signed for $100 million or more) were:

David Price (31). He had accumulated 21.6 fWAR over the previous 5 seasons. He got 7 years 217 mill, he has been worth 8.8 fWAR so far in that contract.

Zack Greinke (32). He had accumulated 22.4 fWAR over the previous 5 seasons. He got 6 years 206.5 mill, he has been worth 10.8 fWAR so far in that contract.

Johnny Cueto (30). He had accumulated 17.0 fWAR over the previous 5 seasons. He got 6 years 130 mill, he has been worth 6.9 fWAR so far in that contract.

Jordan Zimmerman (30) . He had accumulated 18.7 fWAR over the previous 5 seasons. He got 5 years 110 mill, he has been worth 3.2 fWAR so far in that contract.

 

The top Pitching Free Agents in 2016 (pitchers that signed for $100 million or more) were:

No one.

 

The top Pitching Free Agents in 2017 (pitchers that signed for $100 million or more) were:

Yu Darvish (32). He had accumulated 14.7 fWAR over the previous 5 seasons (ZERO in 2015). He got 6 years 126 mill, he has been worth 0.2 fWAR so far in that contract.

 

 

The top Pitching Free Agents in 2018 (pitchers that signed for $100 million or more) are:

Patrick Corbin (30). He had accumulated 11.3 fWAR over the previous 5 seasons (ZERO in 2014).

 

Of those 8 pitchers who received 100 million + I would say that Tanaka, Scherzer, and Lester lived up to their contracts. Greinke so far has lived up to the contract, but most likely will take a tumble. Price has slightly under performed, but made up for it in October. Cueto had one good year and looks to be a fail. Zimmerman has been a complete fail. Darvish after 1 year has been a fail, but has time to make up for it.

 

[Baron]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

They didn't want to pay Buehrle $56 million over 4 years, and won 88 games with Humber and his Lucas Giolito like ERA in the rotation. That was a season after We're all in. 

I know their current payroll is low, but you sign Corbin and he isn't all that, suddenly it creeps up fast. And you can believe what you want to believe, but so far all in doesn't mean anything close to $200 million payrolls. 

Is this twitter account known to be somewhat reliable?

I've never heard of this dude before 

[bmags]

Ha I thought this tweet was from futuresox's rob.

[SoxBlanco]

33 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I don't have the slightest idea. I don't know these guys on twitter. I hope not. But I guess in the end, order of priority doesn't matter. Who you add does.

Agreed. Cheers!

[Lillian]

Doesn't successful Tommy John surgery reduce the risk of developing further problems, related to throwing sliders? 

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, Lillian said:

Doesn't successful Tommy John surgery reduce the risk of developing further problems, related to throwing sliders? 

I would think if you continue to do the same thing, the same stress will be put on the same ligament, and something is going to go wrong.  I think it's been proven surgically  repaired ligaments still explode.

[Eminor3rd]

1 hour ago, Lillian said:

Doesn't successful Tommy John surgery reduce the risk of developing further problems, related to throwing sliders? 

Used to be they always said TJ had about a seven year shelf life. Now that the samples of guys is drastically larger I think there’s less consistency. Some guys get it once an never hurt again, others have it 2-3 times and run out of ligaments to use. 

[Lillian]

7 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Used to be they always said TJ had about a seven year shelf life. Now that the samples of guys is drastically larger I think there’s less consistency. Some guys get it once an never hurt again, others have it 2-3 times and run out of ligaments to use. 

Perhaps the time is coming when they will implant some sort of bionic part, rather than an actual ligament. Then maybe we'll see guys actually go back to throwing more than 100 pitches, every 5 days. LOL.

[FT35]

I agree that we need pitching...we have some talent but our SPs are a huge question mark.  I guess there's a part of me that would like them to show more dedication to the current model of successful teams right now.  When you don't have Boston/LA/NYY/Cubs money, the formula had been to try to stack your bullpen.  I get you won't make it to a lot of late inning situations where your bullpen can win games for you if you don't have good starting pitching, but today's game has placed LESS emphasis on the starting pitcher and MORE on stacking your pen with guys who will give you dream match-ups in innings 6, 7, 8 and 9--lights-out work 90% of the time.  

There are SPs out there who could fit this model for MUCH less than Corbin.  Guys who will keep you in the game for 4-5 innings most times out.  Those guys are more affordable and tend to be more team-oriented.  If they have a shot at a young, slam dunk ace for 5-6 years, sure, you take it and then start assembling your pen.  I'm just not sure Corbin is that guy..I think he's more "best available" rather than "best for what we (should be) trying to do."  

You could make a case for SP, bullpen or SUPER STAR position players...just goes to show you how many holes we really have and how little identity we have.  But you know...it's kind of exciting...it's a blank slate that could go any direction--just seems like I'd want to see the resemblance of one of the recent successful teams' blueprints taking shape...like Milwaukee's.  Corbin suggests more Cubs' model and I'm not sure that's a good, sustainable plan for us.  

Edited November 8, 2018 by FT35

[Eminor3rd]

19 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Perhaps the time is coming when they will implant some sort of bionic part, rather than an actual ligament. Then maybe we'll see guys actually go back to throwing more than 100 pitches, every 5 days. LOL.

Haha, honestly I’m okay with it if it stops the slide to “every pitcher is a two-pitch reliever that throws exactly 9 batters.”

I appreciate teams trying to win by optimizing, but it definitely makes the game slower and the batter/pitcher matchup less interesting. 

[Eminor3rd]

12 minutes ago, FT35 said:

I agree that we need pitching...we have some talent but our SPs are a huge question mark.  I guess there's a part of me that would like them to show more dedication to the current model of successful teams right now.  When you don't have Boston/LA/NYY/Cubs money, the formula had been to try to stack your bullpen.  I get you won't make it to a lot of late inning situations where your bullpen can win games for you if you don't have good starting pitching, but today's game has placed LESS emphasis on the starting pitcher and MORE on stacking your pen with guys who will give you dream match-ups in innings 6, 7, 8 and 9--lights-out work 90% of the time.  

There are SPs out there who could fit this model for MUCH less than Corbin.  Guys who will keep you in the game for 4-5 innings most times out.  Those guys are more affordable and tend to be more team-oriented.  If they have a shot at a young, slam dunk ace for 5-6 years, sure, you take it and then start assembling your pen.  I'm just not sure Corbin is that guy..I think he's more "best available" rather than "best for what we (should be) trying to do."  

You could make a case for SP, bullpen or SUPER STAR position players...just goes to show you how many holes we really have and how little identity we have.  But you know...it's kind of exciting...it's a blank slate that could go any direction--just seems like I'd want to see the resemblance of one of the recent successful teams' blueprints taking shape...like Milwaukee's.  Corbin suggests more Cubs' model and I'm not sure that's a good, sustainable plan for us.  

Good observation, but none of those teams stacked their bullpens through acquisitions — they found themselves having developed them as a by product of amassing young talent. 

[caulfield12]

I guess the point being that Corbin would be similar to the Lester move to the Cubs, except we didn’t have two handfuls of surefire position prospects already contributing or in the upper levels of the pipeline.  

At best, there are Jimenez, Robert, Madrigal that are LIKELY regulars, and we all know the question marks about the latter two.  You can probably squint real hard and add Collins and one of the four remaining outfield prospects to those three.

As far as who could be traded for Gray, it’s impossible to know...and it’s probably a midseason move to me in 2019, because the Rockies want to give him one more chance, just like we definitely don’t want to sell low on Dunning, Hansen, Burger, Sheets, either.   Trading Cease for him is too risky for both teams, and Narvaez and a pitcher with tons of question marks is too light still.

 

Thanks to the poster who listed those pitching deals.  3/8 or even 4/8 seems to be better than I would have expected, but with the Sox...we expect to be on the wrong side of that equation more often than not.  That said, the Sox preferred target zone/range of $50-75 million or even three year deals in the $30-50 million range seems to be more realistic on the veteran pitching front.

Edited November 8, 2018 by caulfield12

[steveno89]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

I guess the point being that Corbin would be similar to the Lester move to the Cubs, except we didn’t have two handfuls of surefire position prospects already contributing or in the upper levels of the pipeline.  

At best, there are Jimenez, Robert, Madrigal that are LIKELY regulars, and we all know the question marks about the latter two.  You can probably squint real hard and add Collins and one of the four remaining outfield prospects to those three.

As far as who could be traded for Gray, it’s impossible to know...and it’s probably a midseason move to me in 2019, because the Rockies want to give him one more chance, just like we definitely don’t want to sell low on Dunning, Hansen, Burger, Sheets, either.   Trading Cease for him is too risky for both teams, and Narvaez and a pitcher with tons of question marks is too light still.

 

Thanks to the poster who listed those pitching deals.  3/8 or even 4/8 seems to be better than I would have expected, but with the Sox...we expect to be on the wrong side of that equation more often than not.  That said, the Sox preferred target zone/range of $50-75 million or even three year deals in the $30-50 million range seems to be more realistic on the veteran pitching front.

Paying Corbin to be more than a #2/3 starter would be a mistake in my opinion. He's good, and coming off a great year, but I don't think he's likely to continue to be quite that good moving forward. 

[greg775]

I wouldn't hate this signing after looking at his stats the last two years. However, I see one site has projected Corbin to be 10-9 next year (yawn, most of Soxtalk doesn't even look at W/L) with a 3.76 ERA and 187 Ks in 177 innings. I guess he's our new Shields. He gets the Shields-like contract?

This is where I'd personally defer to our scouts. Get a good projection on what our baseball people think of this guy's stuff and peripherals and make a decision. Is Corbin going to be effective or not the next 5 seasons??

[caulfield12]

Corbin's going to get double the amount that Shields got from the Padres, and likely almost double the biggest contracts ever issued in Sox history (Abreu/Danks).

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

13 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

is switching from the NL to the AL and nothing resembling a pitcher’s park

You realize that Chase Field is more of a hitter's park than G-spot, right?